Investment firm, KDB Daewoo Securities, has published its buyers' prospectus for NCSoft. In it, several scenarios are presented for potential investors that project data on how NCSoft can remain solvent and avoid any corporate takeover by Nexon. Both Lineage Eternal and the Guild Wars 2 Heart of Thorns expansion come into play as major components of NCSoft's success or failure this year.
Best Case: Daewoo projects that if mobile games are released without delay, if Lineage Eternal completes a successful beta and if Guild Wars 2 crosses the 3M mark for copies sold, NCSoft has a good chance to see a stock price increase and the possibility that Nexon will sell its shares.
Even Ground: If mobile games do not generate enough revenue, if Lineage Eternal beta testing slips, if Guild Wars 2 sold copies remain at or about 2M and if 2014 revenue levels are repeated, Daewoo predicts that investors may be supportive of a Nexon takeover.
Worst Case: If mobile games are delayed or sales fall flat, if there are delays to Lineage Eternal's beta and / or negative reception to the beta, if the Guild Wars 2 expansion slips to 2016 and if GW2 sales remain below 2M copies, Daewoo predicts that Nexon will dominate the board and be widely supported by investors.
As is evident from the above, Carbine's WildStar is not part of the overall financial strategy for NCSoft's success or failure and only makes an appearance in the charts comparing potential financial gains / losses by IP.
At this point, Daewoo recommends a "buy low, sell high" strategy for potential investors.
Check out the full report here.
Class Tuning Incoming - 26 March
Class Tuning Incoming - March 25
