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ArtCraft Entertainment | Official Site
MMORPG | Setting:Fantasy | Status:Alpha  (est.rel Q3 2018)  | Pub:ArtCraft Entertainment
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'Random' Factors Can be Beneficial, But Also More Dangerous Than You Might Think'

Posted by Suzie Ford on Jan 26, 2018  | Comments

'Random' Factors Can be Beneficial, But Also More Dangerous Than You Might Think' - Crowfall - MMORPG.com

A new blog post has been published on the Crowfall site to give players a look at the team's philosophy regarding everyone's favorite thing to hate, randomness. The article begins with an exploration of randomness as a general idea and, later, as it applies to gaming and how most players are familiar with RNG and the notion of chance. However, it is at a later point where the article details Gambler's Fallacy with regard to "a winning streak" or "a run of bad luck".

Gambler's Fallacy is the belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a period of time, it will happen less frequently in the future; or that if something happens less frequently than normal during a period of time, it will happen more frequently in the future. This is most often seen with monster loot tables. A .5% ultra rare mount is a .5% RNG roll EverySingleTime. that loot table is rolled. It doesn’t matter if it is the first time being rolled or the 50th. The chance remains the same, the RNG has no knowledge of the previous rolls and just keeps rolling the dice from 0-100 and if you don't roll under .5, there is no reward.

The article gets very philosophical, even to the point of bringing in the seminal research conducted by B.F. Skinner on the topic of operant conditioning. However, it comes down to a change for players in Crowfall that is based on some thoughts that Raph Koster has provided:

Raph Koster (the design lead for Ultima Online and Star Wars Galaxies, as well as one of our formal advisers) often proposes another solution: deck systems. In a system like this, each “roll of the dice” is not treated as an independent event. Instead, all of the potential outcomes are shuffled together, like a hand of cards, and cards (results) are removed from the deck as they are used. As each card is removed from the deck, the probability of specific cards in future draws shift along with it, thus ensuring that streaks can’t last.

It's a fascinating look at the notion of RNG and the detrimental effects it can have on players and how ArtCraft is working to mitigate the system.

Check it out on the Crowfall site.

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Suzie Ford / Suzie is the Associate Editor and News Manager at MMORPG.com. Follow her on Twitter @MMORPGMom