Are we likely to see a new generation of MMOGs or MMORPGs any time soon?
Universal agreement also doesn't exist when it comes to defining MMOG generations. One widely held view is that we're in the midst of the third. According to this model, the first consisted of UO, EQ, AC and their late 1990s contemporaries such as Lineage. The second started soon after the turn of the century. Within a few years, a new wave of title became available including the likes of Dark Age of Camelot, Final Fantasy XI, EVE Online and more. The third dates from late 2004, which is when World of Warcraft made its debut.
For what it's worth, I lean toward regarding the first two together, which means WoW ushered us into the second generation rather than the third. Whichever number we might prefer, we're still in a stage of evolution that started nearly 11 years ago, and counting. For me, this begs the question as to when the next significant step forward is likely to occur. In this same vein, I also wonder what the key changes and shifts that occasion it will be.
At the moment, I don't see many possibilities, at least not “any time soon”. The most intriguing is definitely player-created content. This isn't a new concept by any means. In the MUD world, it has been around for as long as I can remember, which is more than 30 years. Some implementations have also been attempted within the MMOG space, although these are content generation systems that use pre-made or restricted elements rather than allowing outright creation.
That said, even assuming the varied legal, technological and other obstacles to the latter can be overcome, I don't know how confident I am that user-made has sufficient potential to become the foundation for an entire new generation of MMOGs. In addition, if I only look at MMORPGs, how much will the play experience change for the probable large majority who make little or no use of the ability to create or generate content? Enough for games that incorporate it to be called next generation?
Is innovation in serious decline or possibly even dying?
Quick, what are two or three fairly recent things within the MMOG category that you regard as significantly innovative? If you're like me, you can come up with answers, but only after taking a few moments to think. What I'm primarily getting at here is the latter part. Although the genre is still relatively young, the rate at which we're seeing things that are novel enough to be easily memorable has slowed considerably. I'll grant this is inevitable to some degree since every element or system that is truly new reduces the available scope for the next. But what does it mean when I can no longer instantly ping off a few answers to my query.
The corresponding question looking forward may be even tougher to answer. What significant innovations do you feel we're likely to see before too long. If user-created content comes to mind, which it did for me, remember that as a concept, it's not new. What will be innovative is the first implementation that proves itself both viable and appealing for a sizable proportion of the MMOG player base. However, as much as I'd like to see this happen, I struggle to think it's likely to for at least a few more years.
I do expect technology-driven innovations, virtual reality being an obvious example. Since I'm not a tech-oriented person, I'm not well-qualified to name other possibilities. That said, I've seen nothing from people who are far more aware in this area to suggest that anything major will arrive any time soon to make its mark on the MMO landscape. What's more, even if something does come along, the degree to which it will permit novel forms of gameplay is questionable. While I'm loathe to say innovation in the category is dying, it isn't easy even to view the proverbial glass as half-full.
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How much of the market will free to play represent?
Although the idea that F2P is the leading form of monetization within the western MMOG market is anathema to some, all of the publicly available research tells us it's so. What's more, it's still gaining market share. There's also little reason to feel this trend will reverse itself or even halt. Within the past few years, it has continued on despite the release of Star Wars: The Old Republic, Guild Wars 2 in 2012, TESO last spring and more. Furthermore, it seems a rather lengthy stretch to think any of the subscription or buy to play offerings currently in development is likely to shift the market balance back to what it was a handful of years ago.
With no realistic way to expect F2P won't continue to gain share, the pertinent questions involve how quickly it will do so and where it will level off. To a fair degree, this may well tie into the rate of growth that happens within the console MMOG segment where subscription and B2P have limited presence. Also, there doesn't appear to be a potentially market-changing PC or cross-platform project in the pipeline that will use either of the latter models. We can also factor in that while WoW's numbers jump with each expansion, its overall trend is downward. If it shifts over, even just in Asia, that will significantly tilt the global balance toward F2P.
It's only my gut-feel guess, but I won't be surprised if F2P picks up a few points of market share in each of the next three to five years, both in the western hemisphere and globally. If such a scenario actually plays out, we'll be looking at up to two-thirds share here and probably three-quarters or more for the rest of the world.
