How much will releasing the PC version last spring hurt in the long run?
This is very difficult if not impossible to gauge or even guesstimate quantitatively, but I definitely feel the cost in foregone and/or lost revenue will be enormous, at least hundreds of millions of dollars. As a hypothetical scenario, let's assume that a better PC version released later would have garnered a more positive reception and sold an additional million copies within the first year. If we say the studio's share is $30 per unit, that's obviously $30 million right there. On top of that, if we plug in that 65 percent of the purchasers continue paying $15 for an average of 12 more months after the initial 30 days, that adds $117 million more, for a total of $147 million.
We can, of course, fiddle with any or all of these numbers to change the result. But since the figure above only covers sale during year one, there's much more to consider. One key “what if” involves TESO being successful enough to continue as a subscription-only offering for much longer than it did. In addition, we can wonder if the console versions would have sold more, whether they could have required a monthly fee and if so, for how long. Use whatever assumptions you consider to be reasonable, and you're likely to come to another nine-digit total.
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Should it have been free to play all along?
I suspect some people will expect me to answer this question with an unqualified affirmative. Well, sorry to disappoint you. In terms of what the studio should have done differently, launching as F2P isn't at the top of my list. As you may well have gathered from what I've said already, what is there is simply coming to market with a better, more polished and thus more enjoyable game, one that would have been, in my eyes at least, more worthy of the distinguished Elder Scrolls IP, which is one I've held in high regard since the original RPG some two decades ago.
That said, once the PC version did launch and receive a less than sterling reception, I don't have any significant qualms with the decision to switch the game over as soon as this spring. It was predictable that relatively few subscribers would quit, and I suspect the rate of box sales had dropped to where there wasn't a great deal to lose any more by offering the client as a no-charge download, which also offered substantial potential to ramp up trials by removing purchase as a barrier to entry. And of course, players who try TESO because they can do so for free and who enjoy it have the option to buy subscription-like premium memberships.
Will it be the last of the mega-budget MMORPGs?
Speaking only for myself as a gamer, I'd like to be able to state unequivocally that I don't think so. However, as an industry observer since the dawn of the modern MMOG era, I can't do so with anywhere near complete confidence. MMORPGs are hard to make. This means they're expensive, which translates to greater financial risk. Yes, the market is growing so there's potential reward out there to be had. However, development costs certainly aren't shrinking, and I also suspect the revenue ceiling is substantially lower than it once was, which would mean assuming greater risk for less possible reward.
To throw out some more hypothetical numbers, if you were a game publisher with $500 million to spend on development, would you use the entire amount to fun a single mega-budget MMORPG that would probably take five to seven years to launch? Or would you spread it around to fund a number of smaller (but still large) projects that would be take less time to create and to start bringing in money to re-fill your coffers? From a business perspective, the latter is much more appealing. So, while I'm not prepared to predict we'll never see another MMORPG that costs as much as TESO did to make, whatever amount that was, it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see the next one for quite a number of years.
Is it a success, a disappointment or both?
For me, it's both. From all indications, TESO has succeeded in accumulating a very sizable player base. It's not in the same league as WoW's, but that would be an arbitrarily high standard. The flip side is the amount of money ZeniMax Online spent to bring the game to market. Even though I can only guess how much this was. it was clearly a lot. So, within this context, I'm somewhat disappointed that it hasn't achieved greater popularity.
As for the game itself, I'm a bit divided as to how well it captures the feel of the Elder Scrolls IP. I'm not saying it misses in this regard. However, it feels more comparable to Skyrim than to any of the other earlier titles. While this isn't a bad thing, TESO isn't a full fit with my experience of the franchise, which goes back to the days of Arena and Daggerfall. I don't sense any great connection to them or their heritage.
