Scott Jennings: 2010 A Year in Review
It's easy to look back on the year that was. Many different writers are recapping the year 2009. It takes a special kind of writer though to skip ahead into the future and recap the year ahead. In his usual tongue in cheek style, MMORPG.com columnist Scott Jennings looks into the future to recap the year 2010.
Column By Scott Jennings on December 30, 2009
As an industry pundit, I've always had one simple rule - if you don't want to go wrong in predicting the future, predict stuff that's already happened. Unfortunately, that's going to be difficult for 2010, since... um.... the past year has been pretty wackily crazy.
So really, there's only one thing I can do to salvage this - the old standby of bad Star Trek episodes. Time travel. Thankfully, I have an iPhone. They can do anything.
QUANTUM CARRIER WAVE CONNECTION TO apps.google.com/docs/2011....
CONNECTING...
CONNECTION ESTABLISHED.
Welcome to my end of the year recap for 2010. Let's get right to it, shall we?
Cataclysm releases, breaks some records, fails to break others
November saw the release of World of Warcraft's latest expansion, Cataclysm. Complaints about the low number of high-end raids released with this expansion paled next to the roar of millions of new goblins and worgen rushing through the revamped introductory zones as swiftly as they can, so that they could get to the endgame of high-end raids that they could complain about. The huge lines at Cataclysm release date parties attract a great deal of media attention (especially the scantily clad female goblin cosplayers), but the total revenue for the weekend of $275 million globally, while record setting for an MMO release, fails to dent Modern Warfare 2's record of $310 million sales on its first day. Some industry analysts begin to wonder if the MMO market in general has peaked, thanks in large part to some industry analysts confusing the words "MMO market" and "World of Warcraft."
The Old Republic enters beta, Internet explodes
Bioware finally lifts the veil on The Old Republic with a "limited open beta" in October. (Some wags speculate that EA forces Bioware's hand to steal some of Blizzard's thunder as Cataclysm's impending launch begins a media feeding frenzy.) Bioware's websites and mail servers begin to crumble as the difference between denial of service attacks and millions of Star Wars fans trying to get a prized early look at TOR become difficult to distinguish. Early impressions are generally positive (although a small, loud remnant of "true believer" Star Wars Galaxies players are enraged at the complete lack of open virtual-world gameplay), and 2011 definitely looks to be Bioware's year in terms of MMO releases.
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Linden Lab sells Second Life
Virtual worlds receive a shock as Linden Lab, bleeding cash, announces a sale of Second Life to Sony Online Entertainment in August so that a (much smaller) Linden studio can fund a newer VW in development. The assurances by SOE that Second Life's libertarian (and somewhat libertine) social environment won't be changed completely fails to reassure its residents. The "Great Offworld Migration" to open source servers fragments the community, although cross world communication becomes a priority for now extremely overworked VW hackers. The mass media uses the announced sale to proclaim how prescient they were for predicting that the whole online gaming thing wouldn't work out, just before they begin to write the stories predicting record sales for World of Warcraft's Cataclysm.
Final Fantasy comes to consoles, yet again
Revisiting Final Fantasy 11's trailblazing and somewhat difficult release on the PS2, Final Fantasy 14 comes out for the PS3 in September, causing Japan to basically shut down and roll Moogle Red Mages, er, I mean Lalafell Thaumaturges. The Windows release is "delayed", and difficulties with integrating an MMO into the Playstation Network cause woes that last into the remainder of the year, putting a damper on worldwide sales.
Batman doesn't need subscription fees
SOE causes a stir when it announces in early 2010 that DC Universe Online will be the second major SOE title (after Freerealms) to be free-to-play. When DCU launches in August for the PS3, it becomes of the flagship games of the platform (though it struggles in its Windows incarnation versus Champions and the still-market-leader in men-in-tights games, City of Heroes); its action-based gameplay finds a niche with console players and the revenue model of sales through the PSN marketplace avoids problems other MMO companies have struggled with in finding ways to make a profit on consoles. (Left unsaid, like with Freerealms, is how much money the game actually makes - in the free to play marketplace, popularity does not always result in profit...) Unfortunately, DCU's main limit is the PS3's limited market itself, and the game struggles to achieve a million players.
Lt. Worf, set phasers on "grind"
Star Trek Online releases in March. Its launch isn't nearly as troubled as Cryptic's recent Champions Online, and the gameplay attracts friends and foes in roughly equal measure. Hardcore Star Trek fans are completely revolted at the spectacle of Starfleet officers receiving credits and XP for killing "a_Gorn_soldier001". Bloodthirsty MMO players take to the Klingon PvP experience with a vengeance, and the Federation-Klingon war suffers serious population balance issues on most servers. Still, you only argue about games you care about, and Star Trek Online becomes Cryptic's second huge hit (remember, they originally developed City of Heroes before selling it to NCsoft) with subscriber numbers stabilizing in the 500,000 range.
)
Other, lower profile releases of the last year include:
- All Points Bulletin, a technologically innovative open-world modern crime MMO which would ordinarily be much higher profile a release, but had the misfortune of releasing into the teeth of Catacylsm in December. Whoops.
- Jumpgate: Evolution, which released in June to little fanfare and about 100,000 subscribers
- Mortal Online, a hardcore PvP game released in March which attracted the roving attention of hardcore PvP guilds for about three months, who all proclaim it the next big thing in message boards before leaving complaining about a patch in May.
Meanwhile, other MMOs kept on keeping on in 2009; predictions of Warhammer Online's demise were exaggerated, for example (though not greatly so, as the game finally shrinks to a single server). Most MMOs not named World of Warcraft, from Aion to Everquest, to EVE to Darkfall, remain essentially static; holding on to a core of fans who have found communities that won't go away any time soon despite the storm and thunder of The Next Big Thing. Although every MMO saw far less populated servers last month in what some wags have already dubbed "the Cataclysm Effect", even now population figures are climbing back to normal.
And for those of us odd folk who actually try to make a living in this crazy industry, 2010 was something of a relief after 2009's serial executions. A great many startups started to get funding again (Richard Garriott and Mark Jacobs in particular both attracting much attention, if not a lot of actual news) as investors started to realize that (a) MMOs do make a lot of money! Really! and (b) 2010 was a good year to hire a good deal of out-of-work people to make those. By the time 2010 closed out, the health of the MMO market, at least employment-wise, had started to return to where it was in 2008. (And yes, someday I'll be able to tell you what I'm working on. Again.)
So what can we expect from next year? It's difficult to predict reliably, given how badly I screwed up 2010's predictions (come on, *no one* predicted Evony 2!) but it's easy to make some ballpark estimations for 2011: Bioware will hit it big with The Old Republic, Guild Wars 2 will be the big subscription-free release of the year, and World of Darkness Online will, if nothing else, give Peter Murphy some work for the soundtrack.
But really, nothing will define 2011 more than the shocking announcement in December of 1$!!#$...$!##....
...
.1.
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QUANTUM CARRIER WAVE LOST
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Aside from this column, Scott is also currently contracting with NCsoft.
Every Wednesday he provides us an insider's look at the MMO industry.
Always a pleasure to read an article by Scott Jennings. Only thing missed out (that I can think of right now) are the few thousand people, who will complain all over the WoW forums about the changes, introduced in Cataclysm :P
Good read, it will be interesting to see how close your 2010 predictions really are
Well if your predictions are true that would mean we would only be getting FFXIV, DCUO and The Agency in 2010 ? FFXIV will be great but overall I'm not sure 2010 will be any different from 2009.
Heh, I want a follow up on this in a year...
Was quite an entertaining article. Looking forward to see what reality will be :)
A little more research might be in order, as STO will be single-server, like Champions Online. The population imblance will evident throughout the game.
nvm
Look, I-phones that are able to time travel I can wrap my mind around. STO having 500,000 subscribers? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! <gasp> <deep breath> HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Talk about fantasy land...
I hope he meant 50,000.
I hope he meant 50,000.
Maybe he really did mean 500,000. There are enough hardcore Trekkies out there to make it real. Now if they could only get some more servers....
Haha fun read, I chuckled all the way through it.
Lul, TOR beta not starting till October? I'm looking at Jan-Feb. (2010)
Cataclysm releases, breaks some records, fails to break others
Silly Lum, Blizzard doesn't "release" things anymore. When you're as rich as them, delays are the new release!
Personally, I think they're crippled by success, afraid to roll something like a stealth FPS based on the Starcraft universe or a major revision to existing zones in an already ridiculously successful product for fear that something goes wrong and there goes Blizzard's rep for doing no wrong.
The Old Republic enters beta, Internet explodes
Either that or interest in MMORPGs will have completely imploded. Really, a Bioware MMORPG seems to be as sure of a bet as a Blizzard one, but I fear that too many derivative MMORPGs have killed a lot of interest in the platform to the point where being an MMORPG isn't all that special anymore (I said, on MMORPG.com's forums).
Linden Lab sells Second Life
Better that than the more likely possibility that they go out of business after being simultanously sued by copyright holders and their own customers. Really, this is the most likely reason nobody would dare buy them. They don't want that kind of legal liability. Besides, Sony already has a Second Life of their own.
Final Fantasy comes to consoles, yet again
We'll definitely be seeing a Square-Enix MMORPG soon, although not necessarily Final Fantasy.
Batman doesn't need subscription fees
Wasn't DC Universe's F2P model already announced?
Lt. Worf, set phasers on "grind"
I hope it does stabilize at 500k customers, or more. Contrary to the idiots earlier in this thread think, it certainly has a chance to garner at least that many thanks to the Star Trek license. Millions will try the game. How many will stay? Tough to say.
I hope it does reasonably well - Crypic Studios needs it. I half suspect that Vivindi/Activision is going to put Cryptic Studios to slaughter like they did Pandemic. I doubt they'd allow Star Trek Online to reach perfection - they'd be lucky if they even got the month extension Lum is forecasting. Activision is reaching truly old school EA-levels of mismanagement.
* All Points Bulletin, a technologically innovative open-world modern crime MMO which would ordinarily be much higher profile a release, but had the misfortune of releasing into the teeth of Catacylsm in December. Whoops.
* Jumpgate: Evolution, which released in June to little fanfare and about 100,000 subscribers
* Mortal Online, a hardcore PvP game released in March which attracted the roving attention of hardcore PvP guilds for about three months, who all proclaim it the next big thing in message boards before leaving complaining about a patch in May.
Fairly likely bets given previous examples. APB might pull a surprise upset, though, since it's a relatively new genre they're exploring.
That was actually fairly entertaining :P do a follow up at the end of next year to see how close you got it, my bet is atleast 50% of it will be true. :)
Some of predictions are complete bullshit, especially the deal with Second Life and STO's 500K subscribers. But it was funny to read
Who ever wrote this is out of their mind or just plain stupid.
Linden Labs will NEVER sell Second Life. They make millions of dollars every freaking day. Ever since Phil Linden stepped down, they have changed their focus on making even more money, screwing over its content creators (the users) in order to get it ready for big name brand companies. Selling something that make millions of dollars everyday is just retarded.
STO looks fucking awful, no way it will hit 500k. They'll be lucky if they get 300k.
I still have not made up my mind yet but from the way things keep looking they will be lucky to have more folks playing than champoins online.
My prediction (can't believe you didn't pick this one yourself, Scott)
Blizzard announces their new MMO, and their homepage crashes and burns from the amount of hits.... followed by the US internet infrastructure.
Hehe.
edit: spelling
Funny article. I look forward to seeing what 2010 really brings, and if these predictions actually hit the mark.
Entertaining, but not that many predictions. Those who are there ring true however. I would expect a later 2010 launch for TOR tho.
Maybe he really did mean 500,000. There are enough hardcore Trekkies out there to make it real. Now if they could only get some more servers....
Any hard core trekkie will litterally run from this game, it is so unstartrek. Unfortunately many will be stupid and buy the game, but the population will drop like a rock once people understand how bad the game is.
It was a good read Scott, but you blew it with the Star Trek spiel, I think your crystal ball has a crack in it.
Maybe he really did mean 500,000. There are enough hardcore Trekkies out there to make it real. Now if they could only get some more servers....
Any hard core trekkie will litterally run from this game, it is so unstartrek. Unfortunately many will be stupid and buy the game, but the population will drop like a rock once people understand how bad the game is.
It was a good read Scott, but you blew it with the Star Trek spiel, I think your crystal ball has a crack in it.
You seem awfully certain. Should we presume, then, that you have a crystal ball of perfect functionality?
Its almost comical how much MMORPG.com shits on SE and FF MMOs. Not only do they not update the FFXIV page for months and months, and fail to ever mention the game or any news about the game but when they actually write something... its how the game will bug down and suffer.
Seriously, are you kidding me? How many more STO reviews/updates can the MMORPG really take? It seems these days its about every other post on the "Our Latest Features" that we get to hear about Star Trek Online. When was the last time someone wrote something about FFXIV?
And yes I did see the FFXI review a few days ago, in fact i think its the only thing I have ever seen the writers of this website post about FF MMOs for as long as I can remember.
Anyways I just kinda wanted to write that for a long time and this is just as good a place as any.
Any hard core trekkie will litterally run from this game, it is so unstartrek. Unfortunately many will be stupid and buy the game, but the population will drop like a rock once people understand how bad the game is.
It was a good read Scott, but you blew it with the Star Trek spiel, I think your crystal ball has a crack in it.
You seem awfully certain. Should we presume, then, that you have a crystal ball of perfect functionality?
Don't you know? Forum Trolls are completely immune to logic.
SWTOR will poo all over STO anyway.
Oz is right. STO will be an abomination to Trek fans.
It bears virtually no similarity besides the graphics and sound effects.
Oz is right. STO will be an abomination to Trek fans.
It bears virtually no similarity besides the graphics and sound effects.
Forget STO and come to SWTOR. We have the Darkside AND cookies.
Will it have space combat, though?
Ack! "The Windows release is "delayed", and difficulties with integrating an MMO into the Playstation Network cause woes that last into the remainder of the year, putting a damper on worldwide sales." Don't jinx it!
Great read as always Scott.
These articles have been the best on this site I have seen, it is very difficult to pull of something new that is still relevent, fun read.
Aw, I wanted to know how Global Agenda was doing.
I am a huge Star Trek Fan and i am looking forward to this game alot. SO stop generalising people just because you don't like it.
There's a good chance of that - Scott usually ends each year with a "how did my predictions work out" on his own blog. Expect to see the follow-up, either here or there, in 12 months time... unless the whole Internet exploding thing prevents it :)
Then stop generalizing just because you do like it.
It works both ways.
This is a gaming forum. Speculation is a big part of that.
Then stop generalizing just because you do like it.
It works both ways.
This is a gaming forum. Speculation is a big part of that.
Nah, doesn't work, Doubter. It's you who did the generalizing on this one, not he. Come on, now, put some effort into it, you don't wanna start the new year with lazy cynicism! :)
Nah, doesn't work, Doubter. It's you who did the generalizing on this one, not he. Come on, now, put some effort into it, you don't wanna start the new year with lazy cynicism! :)
Fortunately the opinions posted on these forums don't have much to do with the response of the marketplace, so relax already.
I wonder what the posts in this forum would look like in eary 1999....course wouldn't have happened, since there UO was the only "mmo" online and EQ was entering beta, but I can just see the venom towards the idea that someone would charge A MONTHLY FEE for an online game...!!
Im suprised that Global Agenda wasnt mentioned. I think it might follow an eve like subscription curve, start out low and rise slowly. There shouldnt be population problems since there is a no sub option, and the devs do seem to communicate well with the community.
STO, i dont see doing as well as 500,000 ,it will last longer, and take longer to shrink than WAR, mostly do to the IP and novelty of a sci-fi space mmo that isnt eve.
I think it is possible for Star Trek to do well for 3 months like all the other MMO's in the last couple of years. Gamers are craving something different and new. STO will sell a lot of copies but I think it will follow the WAR model and crash and burn within a few months.
Other than Final Fantasy which will be a big hit world wide, the rest of 2010 will look like 2008-09 lots of hyped games that fall flat and do not sustain subs beyond 3 months.
APB has a small chance because it is something different although it is possible that the pricing scheme they are going to use may undermine it. P2P is something risky in the US for a MMO.
I think Blizzard is starting to lose its god status with what they are doing with Starcraft, the changes to battlenet, the complete dumbing down of WoW to the point it is is almost like they are going for the hello kitty market. They have millions of fans but they are all building a very large hate following as well with what they have done and what they are going to do. Cataclysm will not do as well as WolK.
The funny thing about time-traveling in Trek is that some of the best episodes and movies usually come out of the overused mechanism - that's why they keep using it. And it served Scott well here too - a good read.
Now if we could only get some of these forum posters to take a trip through the atavacron....
I have seen the future and it is bleak...and the world plunges into the Dark Ages Parte Deux. :(
Good and interesting read. I still think a relatively unknown title which was not mentioned will come out on top next year, but it's merely a personal opinion.
I have little faith in hyped games due to the 2009 disasters I might add. So my outlook on Star Trek, Star Wars, and others is currently negative. Start out negative is my new perspective instead of positive and overhyped.
Yes I agree start out negative, and hope that they prove me wrong. Thats where I am at with STO, not sure about tor.
If Linden sells Second Life to SOE, I'll be emailing you directly for stock tips and investment advice.
Great article!
What? No Guild Wars 2 beta?
Nice article.. Do hope things will become better in 2010 in terms of gaming. to many to watch out for. ^^
Outstanding!
SE has already announced FFX!V as their next MMO.
I have saved a copy of this article and I am going to laugh at the end of next year when I read it again and see how it fails to compare with what will actually happen. The only piece of this article I somewhat agree with is the Cataclysm release and that is because no matter how many high-end raids are created and implemented, it will never be enough in the eyes of those who actually do the high-end raids. Yet they will keep playing anyways, as they always do. "Analysts" (I use the term loosely) have been asking the question, "Has the MMO market reached it's peak?" for the last two years now. The answer is simply no. As long is there is internet and gaming, there will always be a strong market for online gaming.
The most amazing thing about this post is that some one will eventually quote it as cold hard fact.
* Jumpgate: Evolution, which released in June to little fanfare and about 100,000 subscribers*
Did I miss somthing? JGE was never released!
Nah, doesn't work, Doubter. It's you who did the generalizing on this one, not he. Come on, now, put some effort into it, you don't wanna start the new year with lazy cynicism! :)
Fortunately the opinions posted on these forums don't have much to do with the response of the marketplace, so relax already.
I wonder what the posts in this forum would look like in eary 1999....course wouldn't have happened, since there UO was the only "mmo" online and EQ was entering beta, but I can just see the venom towards the idea that someone would charge A MONTHLY FEE for an online game...!!
Meridian 59 and Neverwinter Nights on AOL were already out and charging monthly fees ( hourly fees in the case of Neverwinter Nights ) before UO even came out. I still remember the mix of shock and anger on my father's face when the $100+ phone bill came in with my NWN charges.
I think a good deal of these predictions are a lot closer than most people would like to believe.
One thing I didn't notice though, no info on WoD MMO, 38 Studios MMO, or the salivating MMO in the works from "dream-team" style developers Carbine Studios.
I really doubt that STO will do as well as half a million. The folks who jump from game to game might pick it up for a while, but the people who think Star Trek is too nerdy will shy away, and the hardcore Star Trek fans will shy away because it's too action-y. Old Republic and FF14 are going to be the big names.
Hey...what about Rise of the Godslayer...
Any hard core trekkie will litterally run from this game, it is so unstartrek. Unfortunately many will be stupid and buy the game, but the population will drop like a rock once people understand how bad the game is.
It was a good read Scott, but you blew it with the Star Trek spiel, I think your crystal ball has a crack in it.
You seem awfully certain. Should we presume, then, that you have a crystal ball of perfect functionality?
Don't you know? Forum Trolls are completely immune to logic.
Actually his assumption was based on logic, unlike yours. Its very ironic to call him a troll.
I agree that STO has nothing to do with the idea behind the TV series. Anyone who loves the series for exploring the unknown, curiousity about new species, will be seriously disappointed. With the missions dictating your options, it even takes out freedom of choice, which also is an important factor in those series.
But yeah, I guess some people will find the star trek uniforms and spaceships enough.
what gaming news has Richard Garriott been in lately? im just hearing all the space stuff he's doing
* Jumpgate: Evolution, which released in June to little fanfare and about 100,000 subscribers*
Did I miss somthing? JGE was never released! Has anyone any info on this?
You missed the fact that the article is ficticious look at the future. (as if it were really Dec 2010 right now)
lol
u did miss one other event
Blizzard announces Title of their new MMO at Blizzcon in Jul and and a good chunk of MMO gamers kept occupied for the rest of 2010 by speculating on the game.
Awesome post -- thanks!
Was a fun read. Very market characteristic trends to these games. What will be exciting is the new MMO's announced in 2010 to flesh out the events of the total market. The Hype Train will keep chugging.
god damn i knew it...
ambulation still didn't come out :D
CCP stated that the next two expansions will be planetary interaction (to incorporate DUST 514 into eve) and incarna (ambulation). seeing how they do two a year that "should" happen in 2010.
while DUST 514 might not be the next big thing, its unique nature will probably get it mentioned in 2010.
but as far as ambulation is concerned...i have my doubts even for 2010 :(
btw, did MMORPG.com ever do a report on DUST? id like to read that...
Epic fail....j/k.
I hope there is 1 MMO this year that really sucks me in. It's been "meh" for awhile now to me. They seem so cookie cutter these days.
I loved the article! I certainly don't follow the MMO world THAT much but it all seamed reasonable. And for everyone throwing around their own predictions please keep this one, mind boggling fact in mind: even SWG is still alive after all this time. If that game can last as long as it has then anything is possible!
I am surprised by the STO hate on this thread. I think it will do very well. If you are a MMO gamer, you might like it, might not. But for those who have never played a MMO in their life, they will love it. Playing a MMO isn’t just about maxxing your level in a matter of days and speed past the content. True Trekkies will be in their ships shooting the breeze and hopefully starting a good community in the game.
Good Article!
I think swtor will release before that, I also think it will have a lot of hype, and swg veterans like myself will just suck it up and play a really awesome game
When it comes down to games with a lot of lore like AOC, LOTRO. What matters most is the company doing them. Perfect example was MxO (Matrix Online), when Warner owned it, the game was amazing, dev's actually took role in the game, they would come in from time to time as a main character and RP it out when we had world events. They showed passion for the game, and it's players followed. Having parties in clubs with radio stations actually made for the game, Radio Free Zion, I still remember it, but, as soon as a good game reaches SOE, well, you know. I think SOE just 'buys' it's competition so it can kill it and make room for EverCrack. I solely would put money on BioWare. They haven't failed me yet (except for dragon's age), but that's ok! They need to fail once ;).
FFIV will also bring back a lot of old players. I think this game will be undeniably fun. I also think since it's new and shiny, it will rake in a lot of console players too. Xbox and PS don't really have any MMO hold in America. Huxley, was sold to Ijji, a company like codemasters, and probably won't be brought to consoles. This is where FFIV can try and get the console MMO gamers who can't and don't want to dish out money for a 'big rig'.
Second Life being sold? I believe it.
I can't say anything about STO, never read about it, never watched the shows, I'm not really all the personally into it, but if it's a good game, you don't have to know anything about it to play it. The game should either immerse you into the universe, or help you to understand it through text and quests. I might try it.
Cataclysm, sure, another wow expansion. Punctual blizzard is, despited their timing issues, *cough* diablo 3 *cough*. Another dollar into BlizzActivision's pocket! At least they aren't making a new world or anything, luckily.
I disagree with most of this article to be honest lol. I don't think STO will become that popular. And SWTOR seeing a release in 2010 isn't something that can be said for certain, it might as well take another year to finish it, but we'll see.
I have very strong doubts that Cataclysm will sell as well as WotLK, WoW is getting old and even if they spit out more expansions I'm sure most people are going to be fed up with the game.
I also doubt there will be a delay for the windows release of FFXIV, seeing as how they're going to start the beta testing exclusively on PC.
There's also a few games missing in the equation that could be of huge importance. Mainly TERA Online which is ramping up for a worldwide release that I'm sure is going to be spectacular when people start finding out about the game, as of now pretty much no one has even heard of the game, if you haven't I think you should take a look. And if Blade and Soul actually gets released this year in English(which I doubt) it will probably attract some of NCsoft's old crowd, people from Lineage 2 and Aion will certainly start playing it.
I'm betting that 2010's winners will be FFXIV and TERA Online.
Lum, you forgot to mention Fallen Earth and how far it has come. It has been steadily fleshing out the world and gaining fans, and it's starting to become quite a big deal.