Profile: Splixxer
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• • Age of Conan actual subscription numbers

  • Originally posted by Myrdek
    

    Originally posted by Splixxer
    

    Myrdek, you assume that all of the 285k who left bought the game prior to May 26th and that none of those who bought it on May 27th, 28th and 29th left the game. Yet these three days equal 30% of the timeframe we are talking about. Given a linear cancellation that would mean roughly 85k left from May 27th to May 29th and we would be talking about a retention rate of 50% instead of 28%.

    Please note that I am not arguing about the state of the game. I am just pointing to a flaw in your math and in my opinion you are juggeling with numbers you have no control over.

     

    30% of the timeframe?  its 10% of the timeframe.

    285k out of 400k = 28% retention

    285k out of 440k = 35% retention

    so your right about this, but you also have to take into account a 50% drop in sale during the 2nd week. (all games do that)

    285k out of 420k = 32% retention

     

    that doesn't really change the results though since I already assumed that 100% of the fanboys would stay when it's probably a lot less than that :)

     

    You lost me there; i thought the timeframe we were talking about were May 20th (launch) to May 29th, since you would probably still be registered as a subscriber on June 30th if you had your acount activated May 30th or later. That would make the timeframe 10 days and the period you neglected to consider 30% (id est 3 days). As stated before some of the 285k "leavers" are bound to have left the game from May 27th to May 29th. Therefore it is this number, 285k, that you have to reduce in your calculations.

    Do you have any support for the 50% drop in sales other than saying "all games do that"?

    As you can see it is possible to produce all kinds of numbers, so i dont really see any of them being particularly reliable or relevant.

  • Posted: 8/16/08 12:58 PM
    Age of Conan
• • Age of Conan actual subscription numbers

  • Myrdek, you assume that all of the 285k who left bought the game prior to May 26th and that none of those who bought it on May 27th, 28th and 29th left the game. Yet these three days equal 30% of the timeframe we are talking about. Given a linear cancellation that would mean roughly 85k left from May 27th to May 29th and we would be talking about a retention rate of 50% instead of 28%.

    Please note that I am not arguing about the state of the game. I am just pointing to a flaw in your math and in my opinion you are juggeling with numbers you have no control over.

  • Posted: 8/16/08 9:44 AM
    Age of Conan
• • Age of Conan actual subscription numbers

  • Originally posted by Litigator_AB
    
    

    QFT.  Seriously.

    Lit

     

    What exactly does this contribute to the discussion of Myrdeks numbers?

  • Posted: 8/15/08 4:07 PM
    Age of Conan
• • Age of Conan actual subscription numbers

  • Originally posted by Myrdek
    

    This is an analysis of Funcoms Subscription numbers based on only the facts we have been given
    May 20       - Launch
    May 26       - 400k Players
    June 30      - 700k Account created (includes those who quit)
    June 30      - 415k Subscribers (Q2 Report)
    Total boxes sold = 800k (can't find any date for this)

    I do not agree with your math as it is based on assumptions in my opinion.

    1. The retention rate being 28% (~115k/400k) is pure speculation. It is impossible for you to deduct objectively, exactly how many of the first 400k costumers are still playing based on your numbers. It is highly unlikely that all of the 285k (700k-415k) players who left the game purchased AoC prior to May 26th. As far as i can tell, 59% (415k/700k) is the retention rate on June 30th, but this number is by no means a constant and I would be careful with predicting how this number fluctuates.

    2. How can you estimate 100k boxsales for July and none at all for August? The report does mention the sale of 1.2M copies, which as far as I understand means that there are another 400k boxes in retail which may be bought. So if they sell at a steady rate (20%=100k/500k), that would equal another 80k boxes sold in august. (Note: I am not sure of the terminology of the report. My point is just that no sales in August will not hold true.)

    Conclusion: You present a vague math based on speculation. How can you expect your numbers to have more credibility than published figures of a financial report, figures which can have serious legal consequences?

     

  • Posted: 8/15/08 3:45 PM
    Age of Conan