Profile: EMortalOne
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• • What are players looking for in a new MMORPG?...Here are some numbers which may or may not have significance depending on the power analysis construct

  • Originally posted by Mahni
    

     

    Originally posted by apwrsmage
    

     

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    Originally posted by Mahni
    

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    Originally posted by apwrsmage

     

    In statistical analysis, depending on what you're doing, the ideal sample size is 150 to 3,000. A sample size in the millions starts to pollute the numbers.
    

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    "Ideal" sample size depends on estimated effect size in the population - there could be cases were a very small effect size posed such a great risk (say a small % increase in aircraft failures) that it would warrant a large sample size to detect it.
    But for this case, your point is valid - a sample size of 150 would be enough to detect an effect size of interest (assuming no analysis of higher order interactions).
    Larger sample sizes (for example, "in the millions") would not "pollute the numbers" or introduce any type of systematic bias. If you have a large sample (say hundreds of thousands of transaction records, as an example) and you were to fit the *entire* sample with certain techniques (for example, a decision tree algorithm such as CART or CHAID) you could end up with a result that was not *generalizable* due to overfitting, but this would be the fault of the statistician for not using an appropriate validation technique, *not* for having "too much data".
    As I said in my previous post, my greatest concerns here are how representative the data is, and with statistical validity. I don't have concerns about power or whether differences are statistically significant.
    

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    Using a sample set in the millions, unless you're dealing with a very straight-forward, black and white situation can introduce a certain amount of random variance that, depending on the situation, can play with power. Or, again depending on the situation, the differences in conclusions from the larger sample size are negligible enough to not warrant the extra effort... say a 20.05% trend versus a 20.03% trend.

    Nevertheless, in this situation a control certainly can't be established given the nature of the situation and its uses, but the tool isn't being used for clinical trials, and there are so many possible ways the tool can be used it can't declare a definitive result, it can only show a trend.

    Which brings us all back to the original point: A trend. The tool shows the trend of curiosity among those that have used it as to what games and systems they're currently looking for. It seems to me that was the whole point of the tool in the first place. No more, no less.

    Sorry for the derail here...

     

    Large sample sets do not "introduce" "random variance".  If you are saying large sample sets somehow increase unexplained variance OR variance from individual differences (think error terms in structural equation modeling), they do not.  If you are saying they introduce some form of systematic bias, they do not.  If you are saying that large sample sizes can create a problem due to sampling error, they can but thats a sampling error problem.  As sample sizes go up, confidence intervals go down, whether its a sample size of one hundred or ten million.

    Not having a control (group) is irrelevant here.  Descriptives and estimation of population parameters (population mean, variance) can always be done with a sample of the population without a control group.  If you are implying that only "clinical trials" give definitive results, that is incorrect.  Observational or psuedo-experimental designs are just as valid (and in some cases *more* valid as a design) than experimental designs (such as a factorial design including a control group).

    When you say "there are so many possible ways the tool can be used...", if you are saying this is not a controlled experiment, I completely agree.  But thats a validity / generalizability issue (that I pointed out in earlier posts).  It doesn't lead me to conclude that this is directional (in your words, a trend), but it does lead me to be *very* hesitant in drawing any conclusions from the data (how respondents use the tool doesn't necessarily translate with what people are looking for from "new" mmos). 

    Just to reiterate, I think the tool is great and has a lot of utility.

     

  • Posted: 4/21/08 2:54 PM
    General Discussion
• • AI in DFO for real, or another smoke screen?

  • Originally posted by wicked357
    

    What if Blizzard said the same thing. I bet you would believe them because of them being a solid company.

    Of course

  • Posted: 4/21/08 1:43 PM
    Darkfall
• • AI in DFO for real, or another smoke screen?

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    Originally posted by wicked357
    

    Whats with all this challenging shit? To the ones who speak as if they know how all AI works and can program AI. Are you an experienced programmer, game designer?

    Yes actually I am. I have 12 years 3D programming experience and have worked as a lead for companies like EQ , Blizzard , and sony.

     

    Don't believe me?

    Than why the fuck would you believe these guys have some super cutting edge AI that no one else has?

    Same difference.

  • Posted: 4/21/08 12:22 PM
    Darkfall
• • AI in DFO for real, or another smoke screen?

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    Originally posted by Sam123jo0123
    

    Originally posted by atziluth
    

     

    Originally posted by Aragon100 

     

    Well to be honest, what do you know about anything? Your just another boardwriter and Tasos and his crew is making Darkfall. Your knowledge in this matter is very low compared to the state of the art gamedevelopers. Why you pretend having some insight in this matter is above me.

     

    Of course you can have some knowledge in making AI but pretending youre knowledge is of such quality that you can make us believe that youre way of discussing this topic will make us trust you and disbelieve Tasos cause you say so is just hillarious. What do you know of 2008 AI and whats possible and whats not? 

    All you do is educated guesses just like the rest of us. Game development is progressing each year. So lets wait til we see ingame AI and then judge whose right.=)

     

     

    First, I challenge you to find a post of mine where I claimed to be an AI expert. Again you attack me personally instead of refuting any of my observations. The observations I have made are not huge leaps in logic. I DO know something about high end servers and the hardware limit of applications. AI is no different and I have referenced articles on the subject BY industry leaders.

    So do not take my word on it, read the articles and make conclusions yourself. I don't understand why my opinion or those of others is such a threat. I am not saying the game is vaporware or promoting any other game. I hope Aventurine delivers, but you have to admit that they are building up the game to unbelievable levels.

    
    I challenge you to find a post where anyone claimed your opinion is a threat.

    I challenge you to log into Darkfall online right now and play!

  • Posted: 4/21/08 12:11 PM
    Darkfall
• • AI in DFO for real, or another smoke screen?

  • Originally posted by Sam123jo0123
    

    Originally posted by EMortalOne
    

    Originally posted by Aragon100
    

     Youre a funny one. Youre implying that the boardwriter Atziluth have more knowledge in AI then the Pro:s?

    
    no actually I said that he is just as knowledgeable as the people building Darkfall since there are no state of the art dev's building Darkfall like you alluded too....

    
    You definatily know.

    
    Pretty obvious at this point isn't it?

  • Posted: 4/21/08 10:19 AM
    Darkfall