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Originally posted by Roguewiz

In what regard? 

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Better, more correct, analogy would be:

Using XFire to determine MMO population is like going to a Gun Auction and asking what type of the gun people use; and using those numbers ot reflect the overall gun ownership preference.

Originally posted by botrytis

Originally posted by vzerov

Originally posted by botrytis

Originally posted by vzerov

Originally posted by botrytis

Originally posted by boxsnd

Originally posted by botrytis

Originally posted by Yamota
Based on XFire numbers I would say that the game has about 1.6-1.9M total playerbase.

XFire is just a useless number SINCE we don't know the % of players in GW2 who use it. It could be 0.1% or 10%. Until we know, can't really say anything - this is on ANY GAME also.

We do not need this number.

 

We know GW2 had about 2-2.5mil players on launch.

We know the number of xfire users who played GW2 on launch (15-16k)

We know the number of xfire users who play GW2 now (3-3.5k)

Therefore we can calculate APPROXIMATELY how many players GW2 has right now: 

First let's make 2-2.5mil 2.25, 15-16k -> 15.5, 3-3.5k -> 3.25k

if 15.5k is 2.25mil, how much is 3.25k?

x -> 3.25k

2.25mil -> 15.5k

x= 3250*2250000 / 15500 = 471774.2

 

about 471.774 people are still playing GW2 on a daily basis

We don't know that. You are assuming and you know what they say about opinions and assuming - everyone has one.

 

XFire is a measure of XFire users not an individual game's population. Your logic is off because you are using presales numbers to assume the game now has the same amount - I have no clue how many are playing GW2 - nor do I care.

 

Let us leave XFire out of this discussion as they are flawed numbers from the start.

 

 

 

It's not an opinion.... seriousily, its like saying statistc or math is just someone's opinion.

It is because if the assumption is wrong - so is the statistics. A book for you to read - it is an interesting read......

 

The book is only the arthor's opinion you know that right?

You dont believe math and statistics because someone said those are lies?  Sounds logical enough.

 

I live with math and stats everyday being in science. They can be manipulated to say anything you want them to and that is the truth. Look at all the stats that were thrown around during the US Presedential election and look at how many were actually right. That is what the above book is about. Statistics mean absolutely nothing without the sample number, R(square) value and a T-test (just some statistcs need this). We never get that information, hence the statistics mean nothing (that is why good pollsters usually give sample size and the +/- value).  Statistics is one area in which numbers can be made to lie very easy.

 

 

 

What?  Why on earth would you need an R-squared or a t-test for this type of information?  The sample size is the number of people using x-fire in a given game.  What we don't know is the population size we are taking the sample from, and that is irrelevant for any statistic.  The r-squared is an explanatory statistic explaining what % change in something can be explained by something else, how is that relevant to trends in x-fire?  You really don't need a t-test either, x-fire is more akin to a poll than anything else and you don't need anything you mentioned in polling data.

The population may or may not be dead.

But man, the world is completely barren of people. Get past the newbie area, and I barely see anyone. I go to Lion's Arch, and that seems to be where most people stay. But, the world sure feels dead...

Originally posted by boxsnd

Originally posted by Roguewiz

The numbers XFire gives are skewed.  As mentioned, a certain player demographic uses the program.  I don't use it, and none of my MMO playing friends or family use it (31 to 34 age group). 

Using XFire to determine MMO population is like going to a Gun Auction and asking how many people own a gun; and using those numbers ot reflect the overall gun ownership population. 

Estimations are just that, an estimation or approximate "guess" on what the real numbers should be.  They can be easily manipulated to meet the belief of the person doing the estimation. 

If 50% of XFIRE users are playing WoW, that doesn't mean that 50% of MMO players are playing WoW; nor does it reflect the population of the game.

(I use WoW as an example since it is still sadly really popular, particularly among XFIRE users.  Please note, that the 50% comment is just a number I pulled out of my rear to reflect esimations in my favor :) .)

Oh man...  So many mistakes in that post. See what happens when you sleep during math class?

You have an opinion like yours. Using XFire is like this Monty Python skit - meaningless - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZArgEvK2R1s

Originally posted by lantesh1

Originally posted by Yamota
Based on XFire numbers I would say that the game has about 1.6-1.9M total playerbase.

The trouble is, all of the players are in fractals and nowhere else.

While this statement is pure hyperbole it does feel truthful.

It is way harder to find groups for exp mode dungeons now.  The population in WvW is also really much smaller then normal and there are hardly any time any of the Orr citadels that remain up but there sure as hell is alot of players hanging around LA LFG for FotM.

In a sense I feel FotM is GW2's Trials of Atlantis.  I can only hope this changes once the devs get more ways to aquire ascended gear into the game.  (hopefully WvW is included in this).

Originally posted by TheScavenger

The population may or may not be dead.

 

But man, the world is completely barren of people. Get past the newbie area, and I barely see anyone. I go to Lion's Arch, and that seems to be where most people stay. But, the world sure feels dead...

I was in Noob Human area, last night, and it was packed - 40 people killing the champion Troll, for example.

Originally posted by botrytis

Originally posted by TheScavenger

The population may or may not be dead.

 

But man, the world is completely barren of people. Get past the newbie area, and I barely see anyone. I go to Lion's Arch, and that seems to be where most people stay. But, the world sure feels dead...

I was in Noob Human area, last night, and it was packed - 40 people killing the champion Troll, for example.

thats nice. I said get past the newbie area, and I barely see anyone. I didn't say the newbie areas weren't packed.

Could just be the server I'm on, but the only time I see people is when I go to LA and see LFG spam for Ascended Gear. before that update, I saw way more people out in the world.

I doubted xfire's stats too until Bioware announced F2P.  It's a small sample but it's pretty accurate.

The writing was on the wall when Arenanet admitted there was going to be a cash shop in GW2.  Apparently they already knew box sales alone weren't going to be enough and throwing a sub fee on it wasn't an option at that point.

Originally posted by Chieftan

I doubted xfire's stats too until Bioware announced F2P.  It's a small sample but it's pretty accurate.

The writing was on the wall when Arenanet admitted there was going to be a cash shop in GW2.  Apparently they already knew box sales alone weren't going to be enough and throwing a sub fee on it wasn't an option at that point.

I am fairly sure anyone who has been looking at this game has known there would be a cashshop for a long, long time. A cash shop was not a last minute thing.

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by KingJiggly

Originally posted by ObiClownobi

Originally posted by dlld

Originally posted by Yamota
Based on XFire numbers I would say that the game has about 1.6-1.9M total playerbase.

How do you get that number? only thing i can think of is for compare it to say wow which officially announced it has 10 million subs, it only has 6k players on xfire though, while gw2 has close to 4k, meaning gw2 should have atleast over 5 million players by that logic.

I don't think you can compare game populations via XFire, you can use the numbers to track each games population though, if you use the unique log ins rather than hours played, it is a fair bet that a game that had 5000 log ins per day and now has 2500 has suffered a loss in population, I have no idea what the numbers show for  GW2. I wouldn't bother posting on here though, if you do check it out, I believe XFire threads about an individual games population are locked/Deleted.

Xfire has been, according the mods, deemed unusable on a factual and unusable in judging population. Please refrain from talking about xfire before they close this thread down. Focus on answering ops questions (that is for all of us).

What strikes me as funny is that saying that the number of people in a race capital somehow can be used but XFire cannot. Does not make any sense to me at all.

As for how I got that number. I compared it to MMORPGs which have published their sub. numbers, such as Eve. Did not use WoW as that game is an anamoly.

That is their policy not mine. I myself do not use xfire, nor do many of my friends. It is a more of a how many harcore players are there in this game atm? Kind of thing, and seeing that gw2 is for casuals, well, it doesnt represent that casual population at all. The reason they said no xfire was to keep down the is xfire trustworthy threads that constantly popped up during swtor and early gw2 release. 

Originally posted by Gdemami

 

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Originally posted by Roguewiz

In what regard? 

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Better, more correct, analogy would be:

Using XFire to determine MMO population is like going to a Gun Auction and asking what type of the gun people use; and using those numbers ot reflect the overall gun ownership preference.

 

Agreed.  That is a better use of my analogy.  Thank you.

Originally posted by boxsnd

Originally posted by botrytis

Originally posted by boxsnd

Originally posted by botrytis

Originally posted by Yamota
Based on XFire numbers I would say that the game has about 1.6-1.9M total playerbase.

XFire is just a useless number SINCE we don't know the % of players in GW2 who use it. It could be 0.1% or 10%. Until we know, can't really say anything - this is on ANY GAME also.

We do not need this number.

 

We know GW2 had about 2-2.5mil players on launch.

We know the number of xfire users who played GW2 on launch (15-16k)

We know the number of xfire users who play GW2 now (3-3.5k)

Therefore we can calculate APPROXIMATELY how many players GW2 has right now: 

First let's make 2-2.5mil 2.25, 15-16k -> 15.5, 3-3.5k -> 3.25k

if 15.5k is 2.25mil, how much is 3.25k?

x -> 3.25k

2.25mil -> 15.5k

x= 3250*2250000 / 15500 = 471774.2

 

about 471.774 people are still playing GW2 on a daily basis

We don't know that. You are assuming and you know what they say about opinions and assuming - everyone has one.

 

XFire is a measure of XFire users not an individual game's population. Your logic is off because you are using presales numbers to assume the game now has the same amount - I have no clue how many are playing GW2 - nor do I care.

 

Let us leave XFire out of this discussion as they are flawed numbers from the start.

 

 

 

"let us leave xfire out of this discussion because the numbers don't favor my favorite game"

 

Remember when GW2 was doing better than WoW on xfire how you guys were celebrating?

Actually, more people were saying to keep xfire numbers at safe distance since it means nothing and shows pretty much nothing...

You can not calculate the way you did because you just assumed GW2 didn't sell a single copy after the initial launch sales numbers were given and that I find hard to believe since they're now smashing a bit harder on that advertising button then they did before release. :)

Originally posted by William12

The problem with Xfire is what age group uses it ? What type of MMO gamer uses it ?    WOW for example attracts younger players so would a game that attracts older players also attract the same % of xfire users ?

I have a 45, 41 and 69 year old using Xfire. We switched to it when MSN was having an upgrade issue, wouldn't uninstall cleanly and work. We had enough of that, so we moved to xfire to have a quick chat way between us when online. It works for us as a good replacement for quick chat. It keeping stats, a small bonus.

Nielsen has 5000 systems in the field that an idustry basis billions from it. As said, it's how stats work, Xfire are nice unbiased players that have no real tendancies other then they start up a game while xfire is running in the background. I don't know what x 1000 hours means total player wise. But a 10% gain or drop, is pretty much that.

The leveling up areas are pretty dead...dead enough for there not be enough people around most of the time to complete any dynamic events which is what made this game fun IMO.

Since Anet decided to reinvent dungeon running just a few months after release, all the classic dungeons are nearly impossible to get groups going for.  Everyone is running the newer mini-dungeons collectively known as Fractals of the Mist.  Worse yet they put the entrance to the thing in the main hub city, so all those top level folks don't even leave town.  They turned what started out as a more traditional themepark MMO into a lobby game just like GW1.  I didn't play GW1 because of the lack of a real 'game world' and this title is turning into more of the same.

As far as guessing at the population, there's no way to know for sure.  I agree that the server population indicators mean nothing.  They're adjusting those indicators as the population decreases to make it look more full than it really is.  Simply being in overflow for LA means nothing since that's where most of the population is standing around LFG for Fractals.  : /

Originally posted by chrismini
Im curious as to see if this game currently has a lot of players out of most MMOs out right now, or have many people quit and the game doesnt have that long left of a life? I am looking for a game i can invest a lot of time into, and i dont want to invest time into a game thats player base will dissapear.

 Has more than any game since WoW.

Originally posted by Kyleran
One thing you can be sure of, the number of people currently playing is nothing ANET is particularly proud of, or they would simply publish the actual numbers.

 Like WoW has recently? Or SWTOR? Or any major game for that matter?

Even the small indie games rarely publish how many they have. The only one who regularly tells people is EVE.

Originally posted by korent1991

Originally posted by boxsnd

Originally posted by botrytis

Originally posted by boxsnd

Originally posted by botrytis

Originally posted by Yamota
Based on XFire numbers I would say that the game has about 1.6-1.9M total playerbase.

XFire is just a useless number SINCE we don't know the % of players in GW2 who use it. It could be 0.1% or 10%. Until we know, can't really say anything - this is on ANY GAME also.

We do not need this number.

 

We know GW2 had about 2-2.5mil players on launch.

We know the number of xfire users who played GW2 on launch (15-16k)

We know the number of xfire users who play GW2 now (3-3.5k)

Therefore we can calculate APPROXIMATELY how many players GW2 has right now: 

First let's make 2-2.5mil 2.25, 15-16k -> 15.5, 3-3.5k -> 3.25k

if 15.5k is 2.25mil, how much is 3.25k?

x -> 3.25k

2.25mil -> 15.5k

x= 3250*2250000 / 15500 = 471774.2

 

about 471.774 people are still playing GW2 on a daily basis

We don't know that. You are assuming and you know what they say about opinions and assuming - everyone has one.

 

XFire is a measure of XFire users not an individual game's population. Your logic is off because you are using presales numbers to assume the game now has the same amount - I have no clue how many are playing GW2 - nor do I care.

 

Let us leave XFire out of this discussion as they are flawed numbers from the start.

 

 

 

"let us leave xfire out of this discussion because the numbers don't favor my favorite game"

 

Remember when GW2 was doing better than WoW on xfire how you guys were celebrating?

Actually, more people were saying to keep xfire numbers at safe distance since it means nothing and shows pretty much nothing...

You can not calculate the way you did because you just assumed GW2 didn't sell a single copy after the initial launch sales numbers were given and that I find hard to believe since they're now smashing a bit harder on that advertising button then they did before release. :)

 

Are you implying xfire users don't buy games after the initial launch? See where your logic fails?