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World of Warcraft Forum » General Discussion » BBC - World of Warcraft subscribers are leaving, Activision warns

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156 posts found
  fivoroth

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 11/10/06
Posts: 2776

5/10/13 3:41:55 AM#61
Originally posted by Calerxes
Originally posted by Torvaldr
Originally posted by fivoroth
Originally posted by Epicent
Originally posted by Axehilt

The surprise isn't that the population has dropped.  It's quite old.

The surprise is that it's taken this long and dropped by this little.  Tons of MMORPGs out there dream of only losing 14% of their userbase a year after launch, let alone nearly a decade post-launch.

That is in just 3 months though. The peak was 12 millions subs so its closer to 33 percent.

The 12m was a long time ago. So it took quite a while to drop 33%.

Anyways if Blizzard convert to f2p/b2p then I can safely say that P2P is dead. If WoW can't sustain a P2P model no other game can. I mean look at the market at the moment. How many P2P games are there? 3? 5? Probably no more than that. 

I guess people just want to play F2P. It will take probably at least another 2-3 years for Blizzard to drop the sub unless something really dramatic happens. I mean even if WoW dropped to 500k subs it would still be worthwhile to keep the sub. So WoW needs to lose A LOT of subs for them to convert to b2p/f2p.

No way.  If they even lose another million heads are going to roll.  This isn't about relative profitability and are they maintaining enough to make some money and keep development going.  This is about investor returns.  Investors are going to be pissed because even a 10% drop in projected revenue is enough to send stock on a decline.

Corporations are expected to improve revenue.  If Acti/Blizz can't poo out something to increase their revenue forecasts then they're in trouble as in executives will be replaced.  On the bright side this might light a fire under them to get Titan out.

It's hard to say if they would shift their business model though.  In a recent interview they said they're always open, but given the present revenue generation they have no plans to change that in the near future.

 

Exactly Blizz/Act have lost 3.7 million WoW subs since 2010, that equates to a lot of lost revenue and what are they replacing it with? couple that with the demise of Guitar Hero and the further decline of WoW the company isn't really giving investors optimism for the future.

What does their financial statement look like? I haven't looked at their balance sheet or income statement because frankly I don't care but there are a lot of things to consider when evaluating how a firm is doing as a whole. Also need to do some benchmarking and industry analysis to compare. When did they make their announcement? Their share price dropped by roughly 3% in a day though.

Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.

  jpnz

Elite Member

Joined: 6/29/06
Posts: 3564

5/10/13 3:49:28 AM#62
The share price movement is within normal trading, 3%. Their financials are fine. Despite the 'they only have cod and wow' statement by the uninformed, Skylanders are still selling well (lol talk about an understatement).

Gdemami -
Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  Icewhite

Made History

Joined: 7/11/11
Posts: 6495

Pink, it's like red but not quite.

5/10/13 4:23:59 AM#63
Originally posted by Axehilt

The surprise isn't that the population has dropped.  It's quite old.

The surprise is that it's taken this long and dropped by this little.

There's enormous inertia in a player pool that large. Sunk costs...

"The Truth: Your decisions are tainted by the emotional investments you accumulate, and the more you invest in something the harder it becomes to abandon it."

As usual, the glee we see (from one side) of "The King is Dead" crowd is premature, and the defensiveness we see (from the other side) "Still the Greatest Evar" are both simple reflex.

As previous titles have shown us, even If the King is on life support, he can and will cling to life well into the next decade, or the one after that...we just don't know how long that life-support can last, yet.

Great fun furiously rubbing the crystal balls and prognosticating though, isn't it? Doom.

Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  Darengy

Novice Member

Joined: 5/09/13
Posts: 4

Cute buny cute

5/10/13 4:35:35 AM#64

Well it'[s an old game already, and there are WOW killer games now :)

what can you expect? it's been running for years.... and i think players realized that it's time for them to try something new :)

  Yaevindusk

Elite Member

Joined: 9/05/10
Posts: 1223

Logic, reason and fact do not supersede human nature. Ignorance reigns without justice.

5/10/13 4:40:42 AM#65
Originally posted by MadDemon64

I smell a potential f2p conversion coming on.

Lets face facts.  Games like TERA, SW:TOR, Aion, and LOTRO were only kinda popular when they were s2p games, but once they converted to f2p, they experienced HUGE population booms.  The same will happen if/when WoW converts to f2p, and right now, I think it's less of a matter of "if" than it is of "when".  In fact, even if they made it b2p where players had to buy the expansion packs but not need to pay a subscription, that would create a similarly huge population boom (and might be enough to bring me back).

 

I believe there was already a confirmation by Morhaime that it will go F2P eventually.  Though that was followed with the condition that if they were no longer making a profit from P2P they wouldn't abandon it and instead just make it Free to Play with a cash shop.

Though this was years and years ago, probably before even Wrath of the Lich King when he said that.

When faced with strife or discontent, the true nature of a man is brought forth. It is then when we see the character of the individual. It is then we are able to tell if he is mature enough to grin and bare it, or subject his fellow man to his complaints and woes.

  MyownGod

Advanced Member

Joined: 10/09/09
Posts: 207

5/10/13 4:41:06 AM#66
Finally you guys are seeing what I'm seeing about WoW, it's just same old same old. There's no new feature, it's all just about new dungeon & raids, new area and race, then that's that.
  Dauzqul

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 2/10/12
Posts: 1266

5/10/13 6:52:03 AM#67

WoW players are getting older. It's like a toddler growing up and upgrading from Fisher Price to GI Joes. Players get older and yearn for more depth and complexity.

WoW was most the first MMO for most people. New players aren't as common anymore.

  Icewhite

Made History

Joined: 7/11/11
Posts: 6495

Pink, it's like red but not quite.

5/10/13 7:35:52 AM#68
Originally posted by Dauzqul

WoW was most the first MMO for most people. New players aren't as common anymore.

Of course, EQ players were positing that same logic in 2002, before the addition of 12-18 million more players to the total 'mmo gamer' pool. "Market saturation"...totally right.

And backstage in the dev circles, they were positing that the fantasy genre was 'played out'.

But no power in the universe can stop amateur market analysts from making their predictions (with about the same accuracy rate as gypsy fortunetellers).

Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  Axehilt

Novice Member

Joined: 5/09/09
Posts: 7213

5/10/13 11:50:21 AM#69
Originally posted by fumoffu1
Originally posted by Axehilt
Originally posted by mizrolist

Pandaren existed years before Kung Fu Panda. I have to say, the Kung Fu Panda movie is a cheap ripoff of Chen Stormstout from Warcraft III.

WOW copied Kung Fu Panda in the same way Warhammer copied WOW.

(My Reverse-O-Tron appears to be broken.  Hmm, subtle isn't it?)

yeah right...

 

In the same way my Reverse-O-Tron appears broken, your Sarcasm Detector seems fixed!  Carry on, no misunderstandings have been made.

  Axehilt

Novice Member

Joined: 5/09/09
Posts: 7213

5/10/13 12:01:34 PM#70
Originally posted by Dauzqul

WoW players are getting older. It's like a toddler growing up and upgrading from Fisher Price to GI Joes. Players get older and yearn for more depth and complexity.

WoW was most the first MMO for most people. New players aren't as common anymore.

WOW players have always been "older". Since launch.  Old enough to know WOW didn't waste their time when other games involved excessive timesinks.  Old enough to have played enough games to recognize that WOW's moment-to-moment gameplay (including game depth) surpassed most other MMORPGs.

I didn't stuck with WOW because it was my first MMORPG.  I played ~10 or so earlier MMORPGs.  I stuck with WOW because it was the first MMORPG that didn't suck (for the reasons in the first paragraph.)

So it's not about growing up, it's about a lack of superior MMORPGs being released, and players feeling stuck with WOW for an extremely long time, and only gradually (due to the extreme length of time spent in WOW) have they wandered off to other games (oftentimes returning.)

Sorta like the 10 year old whose GI Joes are now worn and the only toys his parents have inexplicably been purchasing are Fisher Price; the good thing was better, but now it's so old that even weaker forms of entertainment are looking attractive.  When what we need are some good MMORPG releases (some metal Transformers,) where moment-to-moment gameplay is a blast.

  Xiaoki

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/07/04
Posts: 2439

5/10/13 12:05:40 PM#71


Originally posted by fivoroth
What does their financial statement look like? I haven't looked at their balance sheet or income statement because frankly I don't care but there are a lot of things to consider when evaluating how a firm is doing as a whole. Also need to do some benchmarking and industry analysis to compare. When did they make their announcement? Their share price dropped by roughly 3% in a day though.

Financials are not bad.


In their financial reports all revenue from WoW is grouped with CoD Elite memberships(but BLOPS2 is free, so pretty much a non factor).


Last quarter Online Subscriptions made $285 million.

This quarter they made $275 million.

So, losing 1.3 million subscribers(mostly from China) is a loss of around $10 million in revenue.

  Nadia

Elite Member

Joined: 7/26/03
Posts: 11492

5/10/13 12:14:10 PM#72
Originally posted by Xiaoki

So, losing 1.3 million subscribers(mostly from China) is a loss of around $10 million in revenue.

until Blizzard quantifies what the current China vs non China split is    (WOW was last stated to be 55% Asian)

the "mostly from China"statement is meaningless

 

could have 5.5 million Asian and 4.5 million nonAsian totaling the old 10 million

all regions lose 10%

and China would still have the most losses because they have most subs

 

 

if China makes a difference for distinction of sub loss,

then Blizzard has been withholding sub information

-- because Blizzard has not published NonAsian sub breakdowns for over 5 years

  Arclan

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 1/29/07
Posts: 1374

"Ideas are worthless. The only currency that holds any weight is the ability and drive to execute."

5/10/13 3:23:11 PM#73

Clearly they peaked. Their relentless marketing campaign earned them every potential customer. Don't think there is a person on earth that hasn't had WoW dangled in front of them hundreds of times in the last ten years. Everyone took the bait but now you are out of fish.


It was/is a *very* good run. Well done, Blizzard. Too bad for SOE that their head-scratchers couldn't think their way out of a paper bag, let alone reverse-engineer Blizzard's marketing brilliance.

Luckily, i don't need you to like me to enjoy video games. -nariusseldon.
In F2P I think it's more a case of the game's trying to play the player's. -laserit
video game company layoffs are twice the national average.

  loulaki

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/20/11
Posts: 810

5/10/13 6:16:15 PM#74
its like scary movies, they are classic hollywood crap, at first they were good for the mazes but at the 5th sequel its just boring ...

  daltanious

Hard Core Member

Joined: 4/19/08
Posts: 1784

5/11/13 4:35:30 PM#75
Not sure what is not clear to who? Why wondering subs are down when we know today we have zillion of mmo's out there, free or not free. Once they were only few. 8 milions for me only mean how strong is still wow going. And I hope wow stay there. I'm currently not playing exactly for reason I have also other great games I love to test and play ... but for sure I will be back some day. But truth is they have destroyed casul 5man runs starting with cata. In Wotlk I have been staying for months (after leveling to max all my 10 alts) and playing end game content. But completely lost all my interest after wotlk. Enjoying however a lot swtor as for leveling as for end game. Hope they also do not ruin there something.
  Prenho

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/29/12
Posts: 306

5/11/13 4:39:59 PM#76
Is there a reason to play this game for more than 2 months? In two months or less you reach level cap from lvl 1(1 week or less) and do some raids and BGs and leave. Maybe come back two years later due to a new expansion to play for another 1 month or so.
  newbinator

Apprentice Member

Joined: 10/05/04
Posts: 781

5/11/13 4:40:37 PM#77
Originally posted by Datastar
I feel thier problem isnt the f2p/b2p games out there, its the dumbing down/lack of innovation across the board on all of blizzards games over the past few years.  Thats just my personal opinion.

^

That. Blizzard's focus on convenience and instant gratification have ruined WoW for me. After Vanilla and BC, WoW started going downhill. Now it's to the point where they'd have to do something monumental for me to wanna play it again.

  waynejr2

Hard Core Member

Joined: 4/12/11
Posts: 3736

RIP City of Heroes!

5/11/13 4:46:25 PM#78
Originally posted by Volkon

Math - according to their numbers, users dropped from about 9.2M to 7.9M.

Users - not specifically $15/mo subs, could be a big chunk of time-card types overseas, we don't know.

 No no. When wow claims higher numbers, it's non-sub trial accounts and chinese players.  When numbers go down, it's only subs quiting.

  Serenes

Novice Member

Joined: 5/18/10
Posts: 347

5/11/13 4:54:05 PM#79

If I'm not mistaken in that same report they have record earnings and the stocks for Activision/Blizzard are still very much on the rise. You also realize that Blizzard most likely seen this coming, decade old game does not attracted new players nor does it keep existing ones.

 

I doubt investors are that concerned there stock value keeps going up, which is honestly all you can hope for on the open market. They also can look at Blizzards other successes this year number 1 and 2 PC gold sold, combined with how well CoD did vs Battlefield and you got a company still well on the rise and certainly not on the decline.

  Wizardry

Elite Member

Joined: 8/27/04
Posts: 6751

Perhaps tomorrow will be better.

5/11/13 5:02:02 PM#80

Well Kotick says they are trying to release new content quickly to keep players interested.IMO just making a new zone  or instance is NOT content,that is part of the bare make up when designing a game.Content is when you get creative and give NEW ideas ,so that players have choice.

EQ2 is basically doing the exact same thing,it simply does not entice players to play or look forward to login.

I choose a game because i want or hope it will be fun.Now i do believe every game should have a trial or open beta so players can see what they are about to buy.Weather it has a subscription does not matter to me,it is all about the quality.

Blizzard started WOW copying the basic EQ template,then proceeded to tweak or change things a VERY small bit.They need to get out of that copy cat thinking and get creative.

\What i believe is actually happening is the f2p market is opening eyes not because it is some what free.Gamers now are able to try many different games and soon realize,WOW is not really that good.So many players are now deciding that they might as well play the same old linear questing for free.You can actually  get linear questing and instances in a plethora of games now for free.

http://www.youtube.com/user/Napolianboo#p/u/15/rCYLLQCNc1w
Samoan Diamond

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