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General Discussion Forum » The Pub at MMORPG.COM » Why hype never works

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33 posts found
  Freezzo

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/28/12
Posts: 235

 
OP  1/25/13 4:07:34 AM#1

It seems some people just don't get it, so I thought I'd put a little piece on it here. Gartner made a great analysis on hypes and the expectations of people combined with the real (non-perfect) result.

This graph about says it all, with the 5 phases of the hype included.

 

A hype cycle in Gartner's interpretation comprises five phases:

  1. "Technology Trigger" — The first phase of a hype cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
  2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations" — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
  3. "Trough of Disillusionment" — Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
  4. "Slope of Enlightenment" — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
  5. "Plateau of Productivity" — A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
Fit this on an MMO, where limited information is released and before (and even during) beta testing most people don't know squat about the real game, longevity predictions and all that, there'll be too many expectations. After that the usual MMO-bash starts, which after a while turns (or should turn) into acceptance of the flawed product and people continue to play it if they like it despite those flaws, whilst the people who like the shiny and the hype will have moved on to the next big thing.
And that's why all games coming up will fail in the eyes of those who are joining the hype, unless they go in with a clear mind and ready to accept that every MMO (or game or any product for that matter) has it's flaws.

"We need men who can dream of things that never were." - John F. Kennedy
And for MMORPGs ever so true...

  laokoko

Apprentice Member

Joined: 9/14/09
Posts: 1936

1/25/13 4:19:33 AM#2

Ya I remember during GW2 beta, everyone is bashing me when I say anything remotely negative.  ( I called GW2 a wow clone, I said that game have no raiding).  And everyone is like nono, GW2 is very different from wow, and nono those dynamic event is called raiding.

And now I see many people bash GW2, which I dont' understand.  That game is probably doing better than almost all mmorpg on the market now, and people bash it?  Are your expectation a bit too high?

  VengeSunsoar

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/10/04
Posts: 4874

Be Brief, Be Bright... Be Gone.

1/25/13 5:20:17 AM#3
The movie industry and apple would like to take this time to laugh at the hype analysis... all the way to the bank.

Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  Gaia_Hunter

Elite Member

Joined: 5/04/12
Posts: 2668

1/25/13 5:39:06 AM#4
Originally posted by laokoko

Ya I remember during GW2 beta, everyone is bashing me when I say anything remotely negative.  ( I called GW2 a wow clone, I said that game have no raiding).  And everyone is like nono, GW2 is very different from wow, and nono those dynamic event is called raiding.

And now I see many people bash GW2, which I dont' understand.  That game is probably doing better than almost all mmorpg on the market now, and people bash it?  Are your expectation a bit too high?

So you said GW2 was a WoW clone and had no raids.

Considering how WoW has been trying to make raids the central aspect of the game something doesn't make sense in your arguments.

 

Now back to the OP.

Hype has its place.

I've been hyped about games before, Diablo II, Warcraft 3, Age of Empires 2, Guild Wars 2, etc.

And I wasn't disapointed with those games.

 

Many people just can't filter and analyze the information available in a reasonable way. and sometimes with the diarreha of information and misinformation it can sometimes to be hard.

A good game will be a good game and a bad game will be a bad game, overhyped or underhyped.

 

Lastly, i don't see "fail." in that hype cycle. Just human nature.

 

Currently playing: GW2
Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, King of Tokyo

  Elsabolts

Advanced Member

Joined: 10/03/06
Posts: 2692

Life Liberty and the Pursuit of those that would threaten It

1/25/13 5:42:44 AM#5

This should be sent to Funcom right away !

  Icewhite

Made History

Joined: 7/11/11
Posts: 6495

Pink, it's like red but not quite.

1/25/13 5:46:35 AM#6
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
The movie industry and apple would like to take this time to laugh at the hype analysis... all the way to the bank.

But there's signs that the great iphone boom has just about run its course.

"Social media" may not be the enormous marketing buzzword it once was...another industry only due for an any-moment-now dotcom bust?

Predict the next boom, and make a fortune. Predicting the past won't do the trick.

 

Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  VengeSunsoar

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/10/04
Posts: 4874

Be Brief, Be Bright... Be Gone.

1/25/13 6:40:10 AM#7
Originally posted by Icewhite
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
The movie industry and apple would like to take this time to laugh at the hype analysis... all the way to the bank.

But there's signs that the great iphone boom has just about run its course.

"Social media" may not be the enormous marketing buzzword it once was...another industry only due for an any-moment-now dotcom bust?

Predict the next boom, and make a fortune. Predicting the past won't do the trick.

 

 Yes, all things must come to an end.  However you cannot say that it didn't work when it made the company billions and turned it into the most profitable company in the world.

Hype works, there is no doubt about it.  It generates interest and gets people looking at your product.  In order for the hype to continue though you better have a decent product.

edit - and while apple did not meet expected earnings, it still had record earnings, not to match the growth of last year but very good growth.

Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  laokoko

Apprentice Member

Joined: 9/14/09
Posts: 1936

1/25/13 7:46:28 AM#8

I think people's expectation is just out of whack.

Only way for a mmorpg to success is to steal player other mmorpg.  It is impossible to have that many successful mmorpg.

Everytime a new mmorpg is released, people bash it for their quick decline sub base.  I mean... Is it a suprise?

Take 2 of the most popular mmorpg game out now, wow and eve.  Most of people on those trial don't even subscribe. 

 

 

  ShakyMo

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/21/11
Posts: 7246

1/25/13 7:48:27 AM#9
Diablo 3 says hi.
  ScaryMonk

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/12/13
Posts: 102

1/25/13 7:49:26 AM#10
Originally posted by Freezzo

It seems some people just don't get it, so I thought I'd put a little piece on it here. Gartner made a great analysis on hypes and the expectations of people combined with the real (non-perfect) result.

This graph about says it all, with the 5 phases of the hype included.

 

A hype cycle in Gartner's interpretation comprises five phases:

  1. "Technology Trigger" — The first phase of a hype cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
  2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations" — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
  3. "Trough of Disillusionment" — Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
  4. "Slope of Enlightenment" — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
  5. "Plateau of Productivity" — A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
Fit this on an MMO, where limited information is released and before (and even during) beta testing most people don't know squat about the real game, longevity predictions and all that, there'll be too many expectations. After that the usual MMO-bash starts, which after a while turns (or should turn) into acceptance of the flawed product and people continue to play it if they like it despite those flaws, whilst the people who like the shiny and the hype will have moved on to the next big thing.
And that's why all games coming up will fail in the eyes of those who are joining the hype, unless they go in with a clear mind and ready to accept that every MMO (or game or any product for that matter) has it's flaws.

Did Gartner take a PHD in stating the obvious? 

  Quirhid

Elite Member

Joined: 1/28/05
Posts: 5674

Correcting wrongs on the Internet...

1/25/13 8:24:07 AM#11
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
The movie industry and apple would like to take this time to laugh at the hype analysis... all the way to the bank.

Thats what I thought.

I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been -Wayne Gretzky

  Scottgun

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/05/07
Posts: 344

1/25/13 8:39:13 AM#12
Originally posted by Quirhid
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
The movie industry and apple would like to take this time to laugh at the hype analysis... all the way to the bank.

Thats what I thought.

Dittoed.

How not to sell me on a game: "And most people that make it past the tutorial seem to appreciate [x game's] uniqueness, even if they don't find it fun."

  Rthuth434

Novice Member

Joined: 12/26/12
Posts: 367

1/25/13 8:44:15 AM#13
Originally posted by laokoko

Ya I remember during GW2 beta, everyone is bashing me when I say anything remotely negative.  ( I called GW2 a wow clone, I said that game have no raiding).  And everyone is like nono, GW2 is very different from wow, and nono those dynamic event is called raiding.

And now I see many people bash GW2, which I dont' understand.  That game is probably doing better than almost all mmorpg on the market now, and people bash it?  Are your expectation a bit too high?

yet GW2 is the only MMO selling 5 months after release in a loooong time without heavy discounts. it'll pass yet another sales milestone before the next "competitor" is even out.

 

rofl.

  ZombieKen

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/30/10
Posts: 4410

Zombie - Dead but still moving.

1/25/13 8:44:57 AM#14

Time the box sales to `Peak of Inflated Expectations', and walk away with millions.

 

Seems to work well for EA.

 

MSOTSG with PPE : Massively Single-player Online Task-driven Storyline Game with Purchasable Performance Enhancements *grin*

  Rthuth434

Novice Member

Joined: 12/26/12
Posts: 367

1/25/13 8:48:51 AM#15
bitter mmo drifters, hopefully someone releases a good one besides blizzard and Anet...you guys need a home :(
  jimdandy26

Apprentice Member

Joined: 6/28/12
Posts: 559

1/25/13 8:51:04 AM#16

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp0HIF3SfI4&list=PL70DEC2B0568B5469&index=7

11min mark tells you why hype works, and why its so important. Though you (and anyone who wants to actually create anything) should really watch the entire presentation. Its a rather great way to spend 15min.

I did battle with ignorance today, and ignorance won.

To exercise power costs effort and demands courage. That is why so many fail to assert rights to which they are perfectly entitled - because a right is a kind of power but they are too lazy or too cowardly to exercise it. The virtues which cloak these faults are called patience and forbearance.

  spankybus

Advanced Member

Joined: 11/20/05
Posts: 1167

"Don''t touch that squirrel''s nuts!" - Willy Wonka

1/25/13 8:52:03 AM#17

The only purpose of hype is to get people. To buy the game before they know nothing about it, sight-unseen.

 

inmthat respect, Hype works.mit sucks....but it works. Just look at how many people have been duped into buying games that they quickly assess as being lame.

 

shrug

Frank 'Spankybus' Mignone
www.spankybus.com
-3d Artist & Compositor
-Writer
-Professional Amature

  User Deleted
1/25/13 9:14:36 AM#18

You know, an old Professor of mine used to say "Check it out, I could be lying!" at the end of every lecture.  He suggested that just because someone says it, doesn't make it true.  Just because someone has written it, doesn't make it true.  The only way to prove to yourself that what you have been told is true, is to test it out for yourself.  Most people take what they hear or read at face value.  Call it hype.  Call it marketing.  Call it stupidity.  The reality is, we're too lazy to challenge what is being stated, we'd rather accept it as truth.

 

Games don't fail, people fail.  Even a bad game can succeed.  Hype doesn't make a bad game good or a good game bad.  People do.  You choose to accept it as truth without first proving it to be so, you are the problem.  Hype is just a tool to sway the lazy into accepting something made up.

 

And since this was just posted on the internet, it must be true, because nothing on the internet is a lie.

  Loktofeit

Novice Member

Joined: 1/13/10
Posts: 12401

Currently playing EVE, SMITE, ArcheAge, and Combat Arms

1/25/13 9:15:04 AM#19
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
The movie industry and apple would like to take this time to laugh at the hype analysis... all the way to the bank.

Exactly. This thread is an example of how a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing, as the OP is trying to apply a graph specifically about innovation and new technology to a particular entertainment product/service based on the technology.

EDIT: Great link, jimdandy!

 

 

"And wikipedia is as accurate as Britannica. Wikipedia is very reliable. You would be hard pressed to find a more reliable source for these kinds of things." -fivoroth

  Scot

Elite Member

Joined: 10/10/03
Posts: 5351

1/25/13 10:27:30 AM#20

As much as we are disdainful of hype it keeps on working. It is like smoking, you know you have to give up but never can and finally it gives you a disease like the easyMMO game you are playing or going to see that so-so movie.

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