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General Discussion Forum » The Pub at MMORPG.COM » XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

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297 posts found
  VengeSunsoar

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/10/04
Posts: 4688

Be Brief, Be Bright... Be Gone.

1/02/13 5:46:04 PM#141
Originally posted by madazz
Originally posted by Yamota
 

The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

@yamota, you cannot discuss using something as a tool for estimating a population without also discussing how valid it is.  

It's validy as that tool is central and paramount to it's ability to be used as that tool. 

My own view is that it probably has some small validity in trends in large newer games.  But as a definitive tool for estimating populations?  forget it.

Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  FrodoFragins

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/29/10
Posts: 2757

1/02/13 5:54:47 PM#142
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by madazz
Originally posted by Yamota
 

The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

@yamota, you cannot discuss using something as a tool for estimating a population without also discussing how valid it is.  

It's validy as that tool is central and paramount to it's ability to be used as that tool. 

My own view is that it probably has some small validity in trends in large newer games.  But as a definitive tool for estimating populations?  forget it.

Unless devs start releasing their player numbers, it's impossible to verify or debunk XFires validity.  It's the best tool we have right now and it has been pretty good at showing trends before the numbers are announced in quarterly reports.

  FrodoFragins

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/29/10
Posts: 2757

1/02/13 5:57:50 PM#143
Originally posted by Mannish
What funny to me is that Xfire was allowed to be used on every game thread until Guild Wars 2 came out. Even when Guild Wars 2 came out Xfire numbers were allowed to be posted because it had a good launch but as soon as it started showing Guild Wars 2 gameplay hours going down rapidlly then they declare Xfire can no longer be posted on a thread anymore. 

I agree to an extent.  But I think what happened was the mods got sick of all of the XFire arguments regarding SWTOR.  And so by the time GW2 was released they put their foot down.

 

The funny thing is that XFire was very good at showing the population trends of SWTOR.  It also seems pretty good at showing the relative population between MMOs based on the numbers that have been released for games like WOW, SWTOR and TSW.  We'll never know how accurate it represented GW2 trends as there are no subscription numbers to look at 6 months from now.

  zymurgeist

Elite Member

Joined: 12/24/04
Posts: 5176

1/02/13 6:06:38 PM#144
Originally posted by FrodoFragins
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by madazz
Originally posted by Yamota
 

The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

@yamota, you cannot discuss using something as a tool for estimating a population without also discussing how valid it is.  

It's validy as that tool is central and paramount to it's ability to be used as that tool. 

My own view is that it probably has some small validity in trends in large newer games.  But as a definitive tool for estimating populations?  forget it.

Unless devs start releasing their player numbers, it's impossible to verify or debunk XFires validity.  It's the best tool we have right now and it has been pretty good at showing trends before the numbers are announced in quarterly reports.

 It's a mediocre tool for telling long term gross population trends up, down or fairly stable. However it's useless for determining rate of change or providing population estimates. MMOs almost always trend down over time aside from a short term resurgance when business model changes or new content is released. It's not going to tell you anything you shouldn't already know.

"Strong and bitter words indicate a weak cause" ~Victor Hugo

  VengeSunsoar

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/10/04
Posts: 4688

Be Brief, Be Bright... Be Gone.

1/02/13 6:06:55 PM#145
Originally posted by FrodoFragins
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by madazz
Originally posted by Yamota
 

The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

@yamota, you cannot discuss using something as a tool for estimating a population without also discussing how valid it is.  

It's validy as that tool is central and paramount to it's ability to be used as that tool. 

My own view is that it probably has some small validity in trends in large newer games.  But as a definitive tool for estimating populations?  forget it.

Unless devs start releasing their player numbers, it's impossible to verify or debunk XFires validity.  It's the best tool we have right now and it has been pretty good at showing trends before the numbers are announced in quarterly reports.

I don't think it is the best tool at all.  Most of the companies are publicly traded, therefore they have quarterly reports and prospectus.  It's very easy to get these and they would provide a much better sample.

Again for large newer games x-fire may have some small validity but thats it. 

Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  FrodoFragins

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/29/10
Posts: 2757

1/02/13 6:33:37 PM#146
Originally posted by strangiato2112

There is also likely another factor involved: Im betting PvPers use xfire in greater numbers because they are more inclined to play FPS games (which tend to attract xfire users).

 

The representation of the games looked at points to that as well.

EvE: most represented

Rift: somewhat represented

EQ2: barely represented

EQ1: practically zero representation

Which mirrors the amount their game is based off of PvP.  And Im not talking about number of users as representation, Im talking about number of users vs game population (% of people that use xfire)

That's a straw man.

 

Regarding FPS games, why does LoL beat them handily on XFire if it is mostly used by FPSers?  Those FPS games that chart were HUGE record breaking sellers.  We'd expect them to be up there for any PC polling tool that supports them. 

 

EQ1 and EQ2 not having PVP probably explains their poor ACTUAL populations if anything.  The most popular MMOs have PVE and PVP.

 

 

  FrodoFragins

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/29/10
Posts: 2757

1/02/13 6:42:45 PM#147
Originally posted by zymurgeist

 It's a mediocre tool for telling long term gross population trends up, down or fairly stable. However it's useless for determining rate of change or providing population estimates. MMOs almost always trend down over time aside from a short term resurgance when business model changes or new content is released. It's not going to tell you anything you shouldn't already know.

So I assume you have some examples of where XFire trends were way off the mark ? 

 

SWTOR divebombed on XFire and in real population numbers.  Other games like LOTRO and Rift have been fairly steady.  LOTRO and SWTOR also showed population increases after going F2P.  It also verified the rapid decline of D3 populations.  It's not like XFire trends the same for every MMO.

 

I've yet to see an example of XFire being completely off base with a game that started off with lots of people and then lost a ton of them.  Yet people cry every time their game shows major population decreases on XFire.  Again, this is really only useful for games that were in the top 10 at some point.  The margin of error for the low pop games makes it trickier and it's not like anyone disputes that those games have population issues anyway.

  FrodoFragins

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/29/10
Posts: 2757

1/02/13 6:45:29 PM#148
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by FrodoFragins
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by madazz
Originally posted by Yamota
 

The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

@yamota, you cannot discuss using something as a tool for estimating a population without also discussing how valid it is.  

It's validy as that tool is central and paramount to it's ability to be used as that tool. 

My own view is that it probably has some small validity in trends in large newer games.  But as a definitive tool for estimating populations?  forget it.

Unless devs start releasing their player numbers, it's impossible to verify or debunk XFires validity.  It's the best tool we have right now and it has been pretty good at showing trends before the numbers are announced in quarterly reports.

I don't think it is the best tool at all.  Most of the companies are publicly traded, therefore they have quarterly reports and prospectus.  It's very easy to get these and they would provide a much better sample.

Again for large newer games x-fire may have some small validity but thats it. 

Most companies try to hide their declines in one way or another.  Blizzard doesn't separate their subscriber numbers by region.  SWTOR stopped being specific once they lost a ton of players.  Turbine never released their numbers.

 

There is currently no better tool for measuring relative populations between games and population trends and there won't be unless every PC game distributes only through steam or if Windows adds a tool to track every game being played in their operating systems.

  Desirsar

Novice Member

Joined: 11/20/06
Posts: 69

1/02/13 6:56:04 PM#149

Here's a statistical trend for you - most of the people arguing that estimating population for MMOs using XFire numbers is grossly inaccurate are thinking we're using the resulting game populations to write a magazine or Wikipedia article or something.  Rather, it *IS* useful to a player looking for a new game and wondering how much population they can expect, or to observe trends to avoid trying a game that is bleeding players rapidly.  Those don't need specific numbers, only estimates and trends.

More on topic, is it possible that lower population games have a different XFire Factor?  Can anyone spot a trend that would suggest a useful formula for a variable XFire Factor, even if you're having to work backwards from rough population numbers given sparesly in press releases or dev interviews?

  VengeSunsoar

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/10/04
Posts: 4688

Be Brief, Be Bright... Be Gone.

1/02/13 7:08:47 PM#150
Originally posted by FrodoFragins
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by FrodoFragins
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by madazz
Originally posted by Yamota
 

The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

@yamota, you cannot discuss using something as a tool for estimating a population without also discussing how valid it is.  

It's validy as that tool is central and paramount to it's ability to be used as that tool. 

My own view is that it probably has some small validity in trends in large newer games.  But as a definitive tool for estimating populations?  forget it.

Unless devs start releasing their player numbers, it's impossible to verify or debunk XFires validity.  It's the best tool we have right now and it has been pretty good at showing trends before the numbers are announced in quarterly reports.

I don't think it is the best tool at all.  Most of the companies are publicly traded, therefore they have quarterly reports and prospectus.  It's very easy to get these and they would provide a much better sample.

Again for large newer games x-fire may have some small validity but thats it. 

Most companies try to hide their declines in one way or another.  Blizzard doesn't separate their subscriber numbers by region.  SWTOR stopped being specific once they lost a ton of players.  Turbine never released their numbers.

 

There is currently no better tool for measuring relative populations between games and population trends and there won't be unless every PC game distributes only through steam or if Windows adds a tool to track every game being played in their operating systems.

There is no need to seperate by region as the games are all played on a world market.

X-fire showed swtor's decline but it does not give any information on the actual population number.

Prospectus and consumer reports are much more reliable for hard numbers than x-fire.  All x-fire shows are trends for large and popular games, thats it.  There is absolutely no evidence of anything more than that.

Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10376

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

1/02/13 7:57:13 PM#151

Has anyone noticed when trying to come up with an "XFire Factor" that the bit where XFire points towards concurrent players, not a game's population gets skipped? If there is an actual process, wouldn't that be an important part of it?

In the quest for an XFire Factor, why is Sukiyaki's post, containing the XFire Players and Concurrent Players for Eve being ignored? It has the relevant information, and compares a sample of apples to apples. It's right there. Just look at it.

What I see is this. A lot of people claiming some sort of success with XFire, without actually showing any sort of success. They are just saying, "I was right!" Well, if these predictions were right, they should be repeatable, with a process for doing so. Show us the process. Nobody here is making money off of any population predictions for XFire, so show us how you're doing it.

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  Celcius

Novice Member

Joined: 7/20/04
Posts: 929

1/02/13 8:04:40 PM#152

Xfire usage as a basis of MMO population is a poor way to determine totals. Not many people use Xfire. It would have to be a pretty significant amount of people in order to determine those kinds of numbers. Not only that, but this would only determine the % of people who play MMOs that use Xfire, not who plays MMOs as a whole. If even half of the people playing MMOS (Probably more like 90-95%) don't use Xfire, those numbers are innacurate.

If you could get a total on the number of people playing MMOs and there were activity levels based on that, it would work. You can't determine that through Xfire. Also, how do you determine "Activity". Some people only play MMOs a few hours a week and consider themselves active. Maybe if you counted everyone who had been active on the given MMO each month. 

Free to play must also be considered. I think the raw number of people playing a game doesn't matter as much anymore for the success of it. If you see the game getting consistant updates with a reasonable amount of content you could probably say the game is seeing success. The level of success is determined by the structure of the company, but even that is hard to figure out. Rift keeps making nearly monthly updates with tons of content yet they just had layoffs at Trion. I don't think there is an accurate way to determine these numbers without getting them from publishers that are honest or the ones that have to share them with stock holders.

  strangiato2112

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 9/21/12
Posts: 1566

1/02/13 8:06:19 PM#153
Originally posted by FrodoFragins
Originally posted by strangiato2112

There is also likely another factor involved: Im betting PvPers use xfire in greater numbers because they are more inclined to play FPS games (which tend to attract xfire users).

 

The representation of the games looked at points to that as well.

EvE: most represented

Rift: somewhat represented

EQ2: barely represented

EQ1: practically zero representation

Which mirrors the amount their game is based off of PvP.  And Im not talking about number of users as representation, Im talking about number of users vs game population (% of people that use xfire)

That's a straw man.

 

Regarding FPS games, why does LoL beat them handily on XFire if it is mostly used by FPSers?  Those FPS games that chart were HUGE record breaking sellers.  We'd expect them to be up there for any PC polling tool that supports them. 

 

EQ1 and EQ2 not having PVP probably explains their poor ACTUAL populations if anything.  The most popular MMOs have PVE and PVP.

 

 

regardless of the reason, EQ1 and EQ2 and Rift are proof that xfire doesnt work as an esitmator without accounting for some other factors.  There is no 'xfire factor' that is a simple cacluclation.

 

 

CHALLENGE:

Come up with a model that makes sensible population numbers with GW2, EvE, Rift, EQ2 and EQ1

If someone can do this then we can start discussion in the way the OP wanted.

  3-4thElf

Hard Core Member

Joined: 6/03/12
Posts: 451

1/02/13 8:07:50 PM#154

I always found it reasonable to go by XFire. Exact numbers you won't find, but good estimates and a fairly accurate snap shot at what's popular it does in aces.

a yo ho ho

  FrodoFragins

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/29/10
Posts: 2757

1/02/13 8:21:43 PM#155
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by FrodoFragins
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by FrodoFragins
Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
Originally posted by madazz
Originally posted by Yamota
 

The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. 

So you are a full fledged mathematician? People have entered this thread and shown that your aim/goal is not achievable. You are basically trying to make a pig fly using nothing but a pig and a toothpick. It ain't happening bud. Seriously, stats don't work that way and xfire is not a solution. Maybe its time to pack it up and look for another tool to estimate with?

@yamota, you cannot discuss using something as a tool for estimating a population without also discussing how valid it is.  

It's validy as that tool is central and paramount to it's ability to be used as that tool. 

My own view is that it probably has some small validity in trends in large newer games.  But as a definitive tool for estimating populations?  forget it.

Unless devs start releasing their player numbers, it's impossible to verify or debunk XFires validity.  It's the best tool we have right now and it has been pretty good at showing trends before the numbers are announced in quarterly reports.

I don't think it is the best tool at all.  Most of the companies are publicly traded, therefore they have quarterly reports and prospectus.  It's very easy to get these and they would provide a much better sample.

Again for large newer games x-fire may have some small validity but thats it. 

Most companies try to hide their declines in one way or another.  Blizzard doesn't separate their subscriber numbers by region.  SWTOR stopped being specific once they lost a ton of players.  Turbine never released their numbers.

 

There is currently no better tool for measuring relative populations between games and population trends and there won't be unless every PC game distributes only through steam or if Windows adds a tool to track every game being played in their operating systems.

There is no need to seperate by region as the games are all played on a world market.

X-fire showed swtor's decline but it does not give any information on the actual population number.

Prospectus and consumer reports are much more reliable for hard numbers than x-fire.  All x-fire shows are trends for large and popular games, thats it.  There is absolutely no evidence of anything more than that.

There is a need when people in US/EU pay $15 per month (more in EU) and in many parts of asia they pay per hour.  It's very important to know how what the subscriber numbers are in US/EU separate from the rest.

  zymurgeist

Elite Member

Joined: 12/24/04
Posts: 5176

1/02/13 8:28:02 PM#156
Originally posted by FrodoFragins
Originally posted by zymurgeist

 It's a mediocre tool for telling long term gross population trends up, down or fairly stable. However it's useless for determining rate of change or providing population estimates. MMOs almost always trend down over time aside from a short term resurgance when business model changes or new content is released. It's not going to tell you anything you shouldn't already know.

So I assume you have some examples of where XFire trends were way off the mark ? 

 

SWTOR divebombed on XFire and in real population numbers.  Other games like LOTRO and Rift have been fairly steady.  LOTRO and SWTOR also showed population increases after going F2P.  It also verified the rapid decline of D3 populations.  It's not like XFire trends the same for every MMO.

 

I've yet to see an example of XFire being completely off base with a game that started off with lots of people and then lost a ton of them.  Yet people cry every time their game shows major population decreases on XFire.  Again, this is really only useful for games that were in the top 10 at some point.  The margin of error for the low pop games makes it trickier and it's not like anyone disputes that those games have population issues anyway.

 If you would like examples where it was way off you need only wade through this thread, and the dozens of other threads that preceeded it. Like I said it shows direction not magnitude. There are no reliable D3 population numbers. There never have been. Blizzard has never released any population numbers because there is no subscription and they don't matter. Long term Xfire trends are the same for almost all MMOs. Over time they go down unless there is new content or a change in business model. I've never seen  proof of Xfire predicting actual MMO population within 10-50 thousand players. That's a huge margin of error. People can't just fudge up numbers and claim they are true they have to prove it. That is their burden not mine.

"Strong and bitter words indicate a weak cause" ~Victor Hugo

  FrodoFragins

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/29/10
Posts: 2757

1/02/13 8:28:21 PM#157

I'll be honest, this thread is pointless.  This is exactly what the moderators want to avoid.   It's like arguing over religion or politics to some.  Nobody wants to debate the efficacy of XFire. 

 

The problem I have is that this site doesn't allow for people that see value the XFire numbers to do so without being derailed or flamed by people that claim XFire numbers are useless.  The mods here refuse to just punish the derailers and trolls.  There's no reason that each game can't have an XFire thread that is free from trolls and XFire deniers.  They don't want to deal with moderating it, even though many of us see value in XFire numbers and appreciate people keeping long term track of them.  As XFire seems to only display them for a brief period of time.

 

There is literally no safe way to discuss population numbers here if they aren't sourced by publisher propaganda.

  FrodoFragins

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/29/10
Posts: 2757

1/02/13 8:29:05 PM#158
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by FrodoFragins
Originally posted by zymurgeist

 It's a mediocre tool for telling long term gross population trends up, down or fairly stable. However it's useless for determining rate of change or providing population estimates. MMOs almost always trend down over time aside from a short term resurgance when business model changes or new content is released. It's not going to tell you anything you shouldn't already know.

So I assume you have some examples of where XFire trends were way off the mark ? 

 

SWTOR divebombed on XFire and in real population numbers.  Other games like LOTRO and Rift have been fairly steady.  LOTRO and SWTOR also showed population increases after going F2P.  It also verified the rapid decline of D3 populations.  It's not like XFire trends the same for every MMO.

 

I've yet to see an example of XFire being completely off base with a game that started off with lots of people and then lost a ton of them.  Yet people cry every time their game shows major population decreases on XFire.  Again, this is really only useful for games that were in the top 10 at some point.  The margin of error for the low pop games makes it trickier and it's not like anyone disputes that those games have population issues anyway.

 If you would like examples where it was way off you need only wade through this thread, and the dozens of other threads that preceeded it. Like I said it shows direction not magnitude. There are no reliable D3 population numbers. There never have been. Blizzard has never released any population numbers because there is no subscription and they don't matter. Long term Xfire trends are the same for almost all MMOs. Over time they go down unless there is new content or a change in business model. I've never seen  proof of Xfire predicting actual MMO population within 10-50 thousand players. That's a huge margin of error. People can't just fudge up numbers and claim they are true you have to prove it. That is their burden not mine.

There are reliable D3 numbers.  It's related to the number of public games you see up.

  KingJiggly

Novice Member

Joined: 8/03/11
Posts: 807

Definition for innovation is below. Your welcome.

1/02/13 8:39:01 PM#159
Originally posted by Yamota
Originally posted by KingJiggly
Originally posted by Yamota
Originally posted by KingJiggly
Originally posted by Yamota
Originally posted by Amana
Originally posted by Yamota
 

no, I dont agree with your assessment that it is not useful, I think it is. So I am going to use it, regardless of what you think.

And the purpose of this thread was to use XFire as a population measurment tool. You dont find it accurate, great. Move on then. I dont need to move on because this thread is based on the assumption that XFire is accurate.

If you want to debate that then start a thread discussing it and I will happily stay away from it.

This is the thread for discussion of XFire. It is relatively civil so far, but telling posters to go create their own or to go post elsewhere isn't in that spirit. What we don't want are 500 XFire argument threads. You wanted one, and it's here.

Well the reason I created the thread was not to create an endless discussion about its validity but rather to try and use the data to get some userbase data. How can you do that if it keep getting flooded by anti XFire people saying it is invalid a million times?

It is pointless and non-constructive.

Your question was to use xfire as a pop. Estimation tool, and I believe we have obtained more than enough info to answer the question: NO. I am no expert, but it seems site trustworthiness, type of population, and the fact no one likes it used against there game.

No, there was no question. The aim was to use it as an estimation tool, not ask a bunch of amateur mathematicans if it is valid or not. It is like starting a thread and trying to get poll results for an election from the only tool available but when trying to do that get a bunch of people saying it is invalid over and over again without offering any alternatives.

That is the very definition of topic hijacking.

Look. The only way your going to find an alternative is if the game companies tell you themselves. That is it any other way will be prodded to death by all comunities. 

So I guess scientific polling does not exist then right? Not saying XFire is a scientific polling but obviously that concept exist but no-one has the funds nor the will to actually create one so we are stuck with imperfect tools like XFire.

Yeah sometimes life is like that, you cant get the perfect tool so you use whatever you got. Once I needed to hammer a nail but I did not have a hammer so I used the blunt end of a heavy screw driver to hammer it down.

But I cant do that right? Because it isn't a hammer...

Pragmatism over idealism. That is life instead of fiction.

To bad scientific polls are conducted on a much less unbiased way, with the help of huge think-tanks and backed up by other organizations/think tanks. Never ever compare a 3rd party system to a "scientific study" BECUASE IT ISN'T. There are so many variables, WHICH have been listed SEVERAL times through out this thread to make anything about any 3rd party sites mute. Even these think-tanks warn you to take their numbers with a grain of salt, becuase Public opinion changes so fast it is unmeasurable.

You even say it yourself, sure you can look at Xfire (r whatever source you want) but it will NEVER BE THE SAME AS THE FRICKING HAMMER (the real company). So, you answered your own question.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/innovation

  zymurgeist

Elite Member

Joined: 12/24/04
Posts: 5176

1/02/13 8:40:28 PM#160
Originally posted by FrodoFragins
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Originally posted by FrodoFragins
Originally posted by zymurgeist

 It's a mediocre tool for telling long term gross population trends up, down or fairly stable. However it's useless for determining rate of change or providing population estimates. MMOs almost always trend down over time aside from a short term resurgance when business model changes or new content is released. It's not going to tell you anything you shouldn't already know.

So I assume you have some examples of where XFire trends were way off the mark ? 

 

SWTOR divebombed on XFire and in real population numbers.  Other games like LOTRO and Rift have been fairly steady.  LOTRO and SWTOR also showed population increases after going F2P.  It also verified the rapid decline of D3 populations.  It's not like XFire trends the same for every MMO.

 

I've yet to see an example of XFire being completely off base with a game that started off with lots of people and then lost a ton of them.  Yet people cry every time their game shows major population decreases on XFire.  Again, this is really only useful for games that were in the top 10 at some point.  The margin of error for the low pop games makes it trickier and it's not like anyone disputes that those games have population issues anyway.

 If you would like examples where it was way off you need only wade through this thread, and the dozens of other threads that preceeded it. Like I said it shows direction not magnitude. There are no reliable D3 population numbers. There never have been. Blizzard has never released any population numbers because there is no subscription and they don't matter. Long term Xfire trends are the same for almost all MMOs. Over time they go down unless there is new content or a change in business model. I've never seen  proof of Xfire predicting actual MMO population within 10-50 thousand players. That's a huge margin of error. People can't just fudge up numbers and claim they are true you have to prove it. That is their burden not mine.

There are reliable D3 numbers.  It's related to the number of public games you see up.

 So how many people play D3 a day based on the number of public games now...... or now......... or now? Your assertion is nonsense. You can't have a rational discussion of the efficacy of xfire in predicting MMO populations because there is insufficient reliable data. If you can provide a month of accurate daily numbers for ten MMOs and compare them to Xfire numbers you might have something. You cannot.

"Strong and bitter words indicate a weak cause" ~Victor Hugo

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