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General Discussion Forum » The Pub at MMORPG.COM » XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

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298 posts found
  Jonnas13

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/27/07
Posts: 83

12/26/12 7:02:16 AM#21
Originally posted by Gdemami

 


Originally posted by Jonnas13

Yet, if you do not understand that demographic anything you try to do with that data in inherantly flawed.

 

This has been discussed to death in many threads. The only people who try to cling to x-fire as a population estimating tool are the ones who want to use that data to make a point.

Anyone else who has had an education in statistics knows it simply cannot be used that way or as proof of anything without knowing the sample. I'll leave it at that as you do not seem to understand anything about statistics.

 


 

That's the thing, you are only parroting something that sounds smart regardless of application.

You do not always use and need complete sample in statistics...all is a matter of probability and accuracy.

No, you do not need to use a complete sample, as long as you understand the sample you have whic is impossible with x-fire. That is quite simply the point I have been trying to make and it seems, deep down at least, you understand this yourself.

There is a reason WoW is not used along with these types of estimation. GW2 would have an active playing population of over 5 million if the OPs method was used so it is disregarded thus showing the inherant flaw.

GW is healthy but obviously not getting all those players so it illustrates exactly why this type of thread is white knighted by the few and understandably taken as unreliable by the rest.

  Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 6980

12/26/12 7:07:10 AM#22


Originally posted by Yamota

So 522 is the X-Fire factor which I will use to calculate the playerbase of other games.

Wrong.

"factor 522" represents % of EVE players using xfire and no more.

You basically say that because certain % of EVE players use xfire, same % is used by other game which is something you have no base for - you only proved xfire <-> EVE online relation.


Xfire numbers can indicate trends or very roughly population size within same sample.

  Rthuth434

Novice Member

Joined: 12/26/12
Posts: 367

12/26/12 7:10:35 AM#23
The Secret World's XFire numbers are bogus, the game installs /runs it when you reinstall or download it.
  Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 6980

12/26/12 7:12:04 AM#24


Originally posted by Jonnas13

No, you do not need to use a complete sample, as long as you understand the sample you have whic is impossible with x-fire. That is quite simply the point I have been trying to make and it seems, deep down at least, you understand this yourself.

Irony and funny is that your argument why xfire numbers are "impossible" is that the sample is incomplete...

I am not saying OP method is correct but I say that you are not correct either. Xfire numbers can and do provide indication of trends and population estimates within same sample(MMO) because there is empirical evidence of such correlations.

  Jonnas13

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/27/07
Posts: 83

12/26/12 7:39:44 AM#25
Originally posted by Gdemami

 


Originally posted by Jonnas13

No, you do not need to use a complete sample, as long as you understand the sample you have whic is impossible with x-fire. That is quite simply the point I have been trying to make and it seems, deep down at least, you understand this yourself.


 

Irony and funny is that your argument why xfire numbers are "impossible" is that the sample is incomplete...

 

I am not saying OP method is correct but I say that you are not correct either. Xfire numbers can and do provide indication of trends and population estimates within same sample(MMO) because there is empirical evidence of such correlations.

Actually I do think it can be used to look at trends within the sample. The part where we disagree is I do not feel the x-fire sample is representative of the people who play MMOs across the board.

  botrytis

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/04/05
Posts: 2532

12/26/12 7:50:32 AM#26
Originally posted by Zalmon
[mod edit]

I agree - we have discussed this AD NAUSEUM!! XFire IS NOT a good tool for populations. we don't know the % of players for each game using it - some maybe 0% some may be 100%. It is not useful at all. Only if you know the EXACT % of players of a particular game using XFire, then it may be useful. Otherwise, it is just a measure of XFire users.

"In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  grimal

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 9/11/05
Posts: 2209

12/26/12 7:54:10 AM#27
Originally posted by Mannish
What funny to me is that Xfire was allowed to be used on every game thread until Guild Wars 2 came out. Even when Guild Wars 2 came out Xfire numbers were allowed to be posted because it had a good launch but as soon as it started showing Guild Wars 2 gameplay hours going down rapidlly then they declare Xfire can no longer be posted on a thread anymore. 

I agree.  It was clearly an infliuence of GW2 fans that were pushing to have these topics closed.  However, I wonder if it's still too soon.  Still a lot of rabid defenders around.

"I'm sorry, if you were right, I'd agree with you." - Robin Williams

  L0C0Man

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/30/09
Posts: 919

12/26/12 7:55:40 AM#28

Xfire numbers are one way (not particularly good, mind you) to estimate population trends (as in, population incresing or decreasing), but not as a general population guide.

First off, a disclaimer, I don't work professionally with statistics, but I have taken several courses about it in college, so take with a grain of salt. For any data to be statistically significant it must comply with several criteria, a big one of them is that the sample size must be completely random, as in, any member of the total universe being studied must have equal chances of becoming part of the sample, and any serious discussion about statistical data must deal about what measures were taken (if any) to ensure this.

Xfire users are not nearly a random sample, since there is a specific target market for it. The fact that the numbers for total population for EA (he doesn't mention a specific game, does he?) fit the expected from Xfire only means that their average player fits the Xfire user profile. (just to mention 2 games), maybe players of WoW fit the profile, while maybe players of EVE don't, in which case the numbers will be skewed towards WoW. Likewise, while the numbers might be used to estimate players increase or decrease, it might also mean just increase or decrease within the players that fit the Xfire user profile.

What can men do against such reckless hate?

  MikeB

MMORPG.com Community Manager

Joined: 5/27/09
Posts: 5433

12/26/12 7:55:52 AM#29
I'm stickying this as long as this discussion can be kept civil.

Michael "MikeB" Bitton
Community Manager
Twitter: @eMikeB

  Scalpless

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/22/07
Posts: 1303

12/26/12 7:56:10 AM#30
Originally posted by Yamota

Then I divide this sub. number with the X-Fire played per day which for Eve is currently at 690.

Disregarding the "XFire is a poor sample" argument (which I agreee with, but nvm that), played per day is a very poor basis for deciding sub numbers, because some games are more casual than others and that skews the numbers even more. Of course, there's correlation between hours played and sub numbers, but you're going through two correlations to get to a number and that's inaccurate at best, especially in social studies.

XFire numbers can be used as to make educated(ish) guesses, but they're way too inaccurate to be used in calculations.

  grimal

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 9/11/05
Posts: 2209

12/26/12 7:59:05 AM#31

Here's an idea...

let's not discuss whether XFire is accurate or not and just for the sake of discussion, assume it is.  So, now that we got that out of the way, let's talk  about numbers.

Remember, we are just "pretending" XFire is accurate, so no need to chime in and say how it isn't.

 

"I'm sorry, if you were right, I'd agree with you." - Robin Williams

  botrytis

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/04/05
Posts: 2532

12/26/12 8:00:55 AM#32
Originally posted by grimal
Originally posted by Mannish
What funny to me is that Xfire was allowed to be used on every game thread until Guild Wars 2 came out. Even when Guild Wars 2 came out Xfire numbers were allowed to be posted because it had a good launch but as soon as it started showing Guild Wars 2 gameplay hours going down rapidlly then they declare Xfire can no longer be posted on a thread anymore. 

I agree.  It was clearly an infliuence of GW2 fans that were pushing to have these topics closed.  However, I wonder if it's still too soon.  Still a lot of rabid defenders around.

If you mean defender by saying negative Nancy's are just that negative with nothing constructive to say, then yes. If you mean, just becuase I agrue with people about XFire, then no - I used Xfire years ago and then realized I don't want what they are selling, mainly your information to advertisers - not for me - uninstalled the useless software. I argued that XFire was useless as a measure for ANY game not just GW2. It is just nonsense.

 

I can measure the amount of time I spend in a game - I own a watch.

 

"In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  botrytis

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/04/05
Posts: 2532

12/26/12 8:02:28 AM#33
Originally posted by grimal

Here's an idea...

let's not discuss whether XFire is accurate or not and just for the sake of discussion, assume it is.  So, now that we got that out of the way, let's talk  about numbers.

Remember, we are just "pretending" XFire is accurate, so no need to chime in and say how it isn't.

 

I already did - what % of say WoW players use XFire (how about any game for that matter) - can you tell me? If not, it is a useless tool, period.

"In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  erictlewis

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/08/08
Posts: 3058

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results.

12/26/12 8:05:22 AM#34


Originally posted by botrytis

Originally posted by Zalmon
I agree - we have discussed this AD NAUSEUM!! XFire IS NOT a good tool for populations. we don't know the % of players for each game using it - some maybe 0% some may be 100%. It is not useful at all. Only if you know the EXACT % of players of a particular game using XFire, then it may be useful. Otherwise, it is just a measure of XFire users.

I agree every few weeks we get this topic yet again.

  grimal

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 9/11/05
Posts: 2209

12/26/12 8:05:51 AM#35
Originally posted by botrytis
Originally posted by grimal

Here's an idea...

let's not discuss whether XFire is accurate or not and just for the sake of discussion, assume it is.  So, now that we got that out of the way, let's talk  about numbers.

Remember, we are just "pretending" XFire is accurate, so no need to chime in and say how it isn't.

 

I already did - what % of say WoW players use XFire (how about any game for that matter) - can you tell me? If not, it is a useless tool, period.

Your opinion is noted.  So no need to keep posting this.

"I'm sorry, if you were right, I'd agree with you." - Robin Williams

  Scot

Elite Member

Joined: 10/10/03
Posts: 5249

12/26/12 8:13:21 AM#36
Xfire is better than pulling numbers out of the air but that's about it.
  Larsa

Novice Member

Joined: 2/14/04
Posts: 992

12/26/12 11:09:50 AM#37


Originally posted by Yamota

... As an example I will use Eve estimated playerbase of 360k subs (only counting the subs in the West as I believe X-Fire is not used much in the East).

Then I divide this sub. number with the X-Fire played per day which for Eve is currently at 690. 

360k/690 = 522 (rounded)...


 

Sadly Eve is a very bad choice because quite some Eve players have multiple accounts to the game. Thus your X-Fire factor is completely off the mark right from the start.

I maintain this List of Sandbox MMORPGs. Please post or send PM for corrections and suggestions.

  madazz

Novice Member

Joined: 10/07/03
Posts: 1306

12/26/12 11:12:45 AM#38
Originally posted by Rthuth434
The Secret World's XFire numbers are bogus, the game installs /runs it when you reinstall or download it.

I call BS on this. I have installed TSW 3x or more now. I have never had xfire on ANY of my PC's at any point in time EVER.

  niceguy3978

Elite Member

Joined: 6/14/06
Posts: 1995

12/26/12 11:14:26 AM#39
I think it is very useful for trend tracking within a game but next to useless to determine an overall playerbase or compare games population wise.  There are just too many unknowns about the sample to be able to extrapolate from one games data points to another games (IE come up with some sort of multiplier to determine how many players a game has based on data points from a different game).
  niceguy3978

Elite Member

Joined: 6/14/06
Posts: 1995

12/26/12 11:15:40 AM#40
Originally posted by madazz
Originally posted by Rthuth434
The Secret World's XFire numbers are bogus, the game installs /runs it when you reinstall or download it.

I call BS on this. I have installed TSW 3x or more now. I have never had xfire on ANY of my PC's at any point in time EVER.

When I downloaded the installer to install the patcher which downloads the game, it asked me if I wanted to install xfire and the box for yes was pre-checked, I had to uncheck it because I didn't want it.

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