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General Discussion Forum » The Pub at MMORPG.COM » XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

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297 posts found
  Camaro68

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/13/12
Posts: 52

1/06/13 6:03:35 PM#201
Originally posted by strangiato2112
Originally posted by Camaro68

You don't need any software or spreadsheets to do a head count on any SWTOR server.

In the Who search bar type: 1

That will tell you how many level 1 players are in the game regardless of zone--in your faction.

Just go up from there.  When you get to 50, you have to type "Mercenary 50" and on down the line.

I tried it and was suprised to see that at least on my server the Empire isn't much more populated.  There were 2900 Empire players on vs. 2500 Republic players.  The built up perception was that it was around 2:1 Empire.

(For the sake of this arguement the server load was listed as Standard at the time)

most games cap the who command.  for instance, Rift caps it at 29.  So on most servers doing a /who 60 mage wont return the full list, and there is no way to break it down from there.

 

Also in a game like EQ, using /role or /anon take you off a /who level search.  And enough people use these to make counting accurately impossible.

 

 

Id be shocked if there really are 5400 concurrent logins in SWTOR.  It would mean they told the truth about the super servers (unlike games like Rift that say they drastically increased capacity but really just bumped it by a couple hundred)

Well prepare to be shocked.  Here's a republic count: 3,545

Here's the youtube video of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghzwSTuVuiI

I'll count up the empire side next and just edit the post when I get a total.

Here's the youtube of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fl3ttcTzc

Empire total: 3,307

Total on Jedi Covenant: 6,852

Let's be nice and estimate the 8 US servers only have 6,000 players on each one.  That's 48,000 concurrent US players.

  strangiato2112

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 9/21/12
Posts: 1566

1/06/13 6:51:11 PM#202
Originally posted by Camaro68
Originally posted by strangiato2112
Originally posted by Camaro68

You don't need any software or spreadsheets to do a head count on any SWTOR server.

In the Who search bar type: 1

That will tell you how many level 1 players are in the game regardless of zone--in your faction.

Just go up from there.  When you get to 50, you have to type "Mercenary 50" and on down the line.

I tried it and was suprised to see that at least on my server the Empire isn't much more populated.  There were 2900 Empire players on vs. 2500 Republic players.  The built up perception was that it was around 2:1 Empire.

(For the sake of this arguement the server load was listed as Standard at the time)

most games cap the who command.  for instance, Rift caps it at 29.  So on most servers doing a /who 60 mage wont return the full list, and there is no way to break it down from there.

 

Also in a game like EQ, using /role or /anon take you off a /who level search.  And enough people use these to make counting accurately impossible.

 

 

Id be shocked if there really are 5400 concurrent logins in SWTOR.  It would mean they told the truth about the super servers (unlike games like Rift that say they drastically increased capacity but really just bumped it by a couple hundred)

Well prepare to be shocked.  Here's a republic count: 3,545

Here's the youtube video of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghzwSTuVuiI

I'll count up the empire side next and just edit the post when I get a total.

Here's the youtube of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fl3ttcTzc

Empire total: 3,307

Total on Jedi Covenant: 6,852

Let's be nice and estimate the 8 US servers only have 6,000 players on each one.  That's 48,000 concurrent US players.

Of course there is no zone where they can all be together, but thats an enormous playerbase per server to draw guilds from.  Easily the biggest server size of the AAA MMORPGs except for EvE.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10425

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

1/06/13 7:51:17 PM#203


Originally posted by Camaro68
Well prepare to be shocked.  Here's a republic count: 3,545

Here's the youtube video of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghzwSTuVuiI

I'll count up the empire side next and just edit the post when I get a total.

Here's the youtube of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fl3ttcTzc

Empire total: 3,307

Total on Jedi Covenant: 6,852

Let's be nice and estimate the 8 US servers only have 6,000 players on each one.  That's 48,000 concurrent US players.




Any thoughts on taking that from concurrent players to total players?

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  Camaro68

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/13/12
Posts: 52

1/06/13 8:46:24 PM#204
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by Camaro68
Well prepare to be shocked.  Here's a republic count: 3,545

 

Here's the youtube video of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghzwSTuVuiI

I'll count up the empire side next and just edit the post when I get a total.

Here's the youtube of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fl3ttcTzc

Empire total: 3,307

Total on Jedi Covenant: 6,852

Let's be nice and estimate the 8 US servers only have 6,000 players on each one.  That's 48,000 concurrent US players.




Any thoughts on taking that from concurrent players to total players?

 

The only reference I have is from years ago.  I was logged into EQ1 and they announced 100k concurrent players on the serverwide.  The line I heard later was they maxed at about 400k subs around that timeframe.

But who knows what the real number is.

  Camaro68

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/13/12
Posts: 52

1/07/13 8:04:20 PM#205
Originally posted by Pivotelite
Originally posted by Jonnas13

8 people have walked past my window in the last hour. From that I can deduce that the town I live in has 55k population. The facts prove it!

Sadly this is more likely to be accurate than the usual x-fire numbers and MMO population bullshit.

Trying to take a tiny sample of a skewed pool and applying to a broad spectrum is inherantly flawed.

 Based on hours played from most populated to least it goes...

 

WoW, GW2, SW:TOR, Aion, EvE, TSW, Rift, TERA then like 50 dead MMOs after that.

 

That seems pretty accurate to me... it gives a general idea, a pretty good one for the most part IMO. It always has shown trands, when a game is gaining players or losing players. Every event GW2s numbers shoot up, F2P SWTORs shot up, B2P TSWs shot up. And they all remain in a realistic position based on their playersbase relative to the other MMOs.

 

One interesting fact about xfire players from yesterday, January 7th:

World of Warcraft

Average play session: 5.19 hours

SWTOR

Average play session: 5.12 hours

GW2

Average play session: 4.12 hours

 

The only editorial conclusion I can make is these xfires are hardcore gamers.  We're not looking at grandmas logging in for some PVP in between knitting blankets.

It's also interesting that the big bad soulless corporate behemoths, WoW and SWTOR, are keeping gamers engrossed a full hour longer than GW2 does. 

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10425

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

1/07/13 9:09:00 PM#206


Originally posted by Camaro68

Originally posted by Pivotelite

Originally posted by Jonnas13 8 people have walked past my window in the last hour. From that I can deduce that the town I live in has 55k population. The facts prove it! Sadly this is more likely to be accurate than the usual x-fire numbers and MMO population bullshit. Trying to take a tiny sample of a skewed pool and applying to a broad spectrum is inherantly flawed.
 Based on hours played from most populated to least it goes...   WoW, GW2, SW:TOR, Aion, EvE, TSW, Rift, TERA then like 50 dead MMOs after that.   That seems pretty accurate to me... it gives a general idea, a pretty good one for the most part IMO. It always has shown trands, when a game is gaining players or losing players. Every event GW2s numbers shoot up, F2P SWTORs shot up, B2P TSWs shot up. And they all remain in a realistic position based on their playersbase relative to the other MMOs.
 

One interesting fact about xfire players from yesterday, January 7th:

World of Warcraft

Average play session: 5.19 hours

SWTOR

Average play session: 5.12 hours

GW2

Average play session: 4.12 hours

 

The only editorial conclusion I can make is these xfires are hardcore gamers.  We're not looking at grandmas logging in for some PVP in between knitting blankets.

It's also interesting that the big bad soulless corporate behemoths, WoW and SWTOR, are keeping gamers engrossed a full hour longer than GW2 does. 




I don't think anyone here is worried about the hours played per player. Which is odd, because it seems like just as valid a way to compare games as anything else you would get out of Xfire.

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  strangiato2112

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 9/21/12
Posts: 1566

1/07/13 9:13:34 PM#207
so what happened to the guy with his "nearly as smart" friend that was going to post some research for us?
  strangiato2112

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 9/21/12
Posts: 1566

1/07/13 9:17:37 PM#208
Originally posted by Camaro68
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by Camaro68
Well prepare to be shocked.  Here's a republic count: 3,545

 

Here's the youtube video of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghzwSTuVuiI

I'll count up the empire side next and just edit the post when I get a total.

Here's the youtube of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fl3ttcTzc

Empire total: 3,307

Total on Jedi Covenant: 6,852

Let's be nice and estimate the 8 US servers only have 6,000 players on each one.  That's 48,000 concurrent US players.




Any thoughts on taking that from concurrent players to total players?

 

The only reference I have is from years ago.  I was logged into EQ1 and they announced 100k concurrent players on the serverwide.  The line I heard later was they maxed at about 400k subs around that timeframe.

But who knows what the real number is.

I think that around 4-5x peak concurrent users is about right, I remember EvE topping 60k with 300k subs

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10425

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

1/07/13 9:38:49 PM#209


Originally posted by strangiato2112
so what happened to the guy with his "nearly as smart" friend that was going to post some research for us?


We are still waiting.

I am curious to know how they got from concurrent players to total players in all those different games. I'm reasonably sure that the ratio of concurrent players to total players falls over time as a game ages. I don't think it would be a constant value. I'm also very curious at how long the "sampling" took, and how many different servers per game were sampled to arrive at the concurrent player numbers. Just call me Curious George if you want.

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  Yamota

Elite Member

Joined: 10/05/03
Posts: 6501

"I fight so you don't have to."

 
OP  1/16/13 10:34:34 AM#210
TERA is showing a big bump which is most likely due to the 7 days reactivation of accounts. Let's see if it lasts until the game goes F2P in a month or so.

  Phry

Elite Member

Joined: 7/01/04
Posts: 5091

1/16/13 10:39:46 AM#211
Originally posted by strangiato2112
Originally posted by Camaro68
Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by Camaro68
Well prepare to be shocked.  Here's a republic count: 3,545

 

Here's the youtube video of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghzwSTuVuiI

I'll count up the empire side next and just edit the post when I get a total.

Here's the youtube of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fl3ttcTzc

Empire total: 3,307

Total on Jedi Covenant: 6,852

Let's be nice and estimate the 8 US servers only have 6,000 players on each one.  That's 48,000 concurrent US players.




Any thoughts on taking that from concurrent players to total players?

 

The only reference I have is from years ago.  I was logged into EQ1 and they announced 100k concurrent players on the serverwide.  The line I heard later was they maxed at about 400k subs around that timeframe.

But who knows what the real number is.

I think that around 4-5x peak concurrent users is about right, I remember EvE topping 60k with 300k subs

concurrent users on Eve, top was about 50 - 52k with an overall sub base of between 350k - 400k. 

  Camaro68

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/13/12
Posts: 52

1/17/13 10:17:37 PM#212

XFire got a little more interesting now that Anet claims GW2 sold 3 million copies.

It says GW2 has 3255 players on per day.  Is that an average?  I don't know how they arrive at that number.

For SWTOR it shows 1488 players per day.

 

Either way it looks like GW2 players have left in droves or SWTOR has more players than alot of people think.

  Camaro68

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/13/12
Posts: 52

1/17/13 10:36:49 PM#213

Let's say GW2 only has a 20% retention rate of the 3 million copies sold. 

Sounds kinda pathetic for such a hyped game but that still means they've got 600,000 active players.

Going by xfire, 1488 users for SWTOR and 3255 for GW2,  puts SWTOR at 45% of GW2's active players.

45% of 600,000 is 270,000.

  Khebeln

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/29/04
Posts: 634

Leader and founder of the Excessum Gaming Community

1/17/13 10:46:48 PM#214

I play mmos since meridian 59, thats like 15 years. Played almost every AAA mmo, clearing the endgame. And never used Xfire. Almost no one i know uses it and i run a gaming community for 10 years.

You obviously underestimate the real hardcore playerbase that done bother with usless toys like that.


(Retired)- Anarchy Online/Ultima Online/DAoC/Horizonsz/EQ2/SWG/AC1&2/L2/SoR/WoW/TMO/Requiem/Atlantica Online/Manibogi/Rift+(SL)/Lol/Hon/SWTOR/Wakfu/Champions Online/GW/Lotr/CO/TcoS/Tabula Rasa/Meridian 59/Vanguard/Shadowbane/Fury/SotW/Dreamlords/HGL/RoM/DDO/FFXI/Aoc/Eve/Warhammer Online/Gw2/TSW/Tera/Defiance/STO/AoW/DE/Firefall/Darkfall/Neverwinter/PS2

  Betakodo

Novice Member

Joined: 2/16/12
Posts: 338

1/17/13 10:47:33 PM#215

Official forum activity is a better indicator. You don't have to download anything either. Throw in in-game visual population estimates and you're set. Also to the guy above me's point, a lot of people don't use x-fire. I don't, everyone I know (From games) doesn't.

GW2 players have left in droves by the way.

  User Deleted
1/17/13 10:54:18 PM#216
Originally posted by Betakodo

Official forum activity is a better indicator. You don't have to download anything either. Throw in in-game visual population estimates and you're set. Also to the guy above me's point, a lot of people don't use x-fire. I don't, everyone I know (From games) doesn't.

GW2 players have left in droves by the way.

 

Official forum activity is usless for determining population.

  Camaro68

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/13/12
Posts: 52

1/17/13 11:30:13 PM#217
Originally posted by Khebeln

I play mmos since meridian 59, thats like 15 years. Played almost every AAA mmo, clearing the endgame. And never used Xfire. Almost no one i know uses it and i run a gaming community for 10 years.

You obviously underestimate the real hardcore playerbase that done bother with usless toys like that.

Well in my experience since UO's troubled launch I've learned to not get too far up on a high horse before I get too carried away with myself.

Xifre users average 5 hours per session on SWTOR.  That's hardcore.

Also, xfire's proven to be relevant in the past year.  Try reading this then get back to us.  Enjoy.

  strangiato2112

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 9/21/12
Posts: 1566

1/18/13 2:16:03 AM#218
Originally posted by Camaro68
Originally posted by Khebeln

I play mmos since meridian 59, thats like 15 years. Played almost every AAA mmo, clearing the endgame. And never used Xfire. Almost no one i know uses it and i run a gaming community for 10 years.

You obviously underestimate the real hardcore playerbase that done bother with usless toys like that.

Well in my experience since UO's troubled launch I've learned to not get too far up on a high horse before I get too carried away with myself.

Xifre users average 5 hours per session on SWTOR.  That's hardcore.

Also, xfire's proven to be relevant in the past year.  Try reading this then get back to us.  Enjoy.

I dont think anyone disputes that xfire is at least a decent indicator of population trends, but this thread is about population estimates. 

And xfire is useless in determinging the populaton of game X based on information we have from game Y.

  Camaro68

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/13/12
Posts: 52

1/18/13 8:55:50 AM#219
That's a fascinating opinion. Thanks for sharing it with everybody!
  Khebeln

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/29/04
Posts: 634

Leader and founder of the Excessum Gaming Community

1/18/13 7:26:23 PM#220
Originally posted by Camaro68
Originally posted by Khebeln

I play mmos since meridian 59, thats like 15 years. Played almost every AAA mmo, clearing the endgame. And never used Xfire. Almost no one i know uses it and i run a gaming community for 10 years.

You obviously underestimate the real hardcore playerbase that done bother with usless toys like that.

Well in my experience since UO's troubled launch I've learned to not get too far up on a high horse before I get too carried away with myself.

Xifre users average 5 hours per session on SWTOR.  That's hardcore.

Also, xfire's proven to be relevant in the past year.  Try reading this then get back to us.  Enjoy.

Most of the guys i know plays 10-12h a day. I talk about hardcore. Not Softcore.


(Retired)- Anarchy Online/Ultima Online/DAoC/Horizonsz/EQ2/SWG/AC1&2/L2/SoR/WoW/TMO/Requiem/Atlantica Online/Manibogi/Rift+(SL)/Lol/Hon/SWTOR/Wakfu/Champions Online/GW/Lotr/CO/TcoS/Tabula Rasa/Meridian 59/Vanguard/Shadowbane/Fury/SotW/Dreamlords/HGL/RoM/DDO/FFXI/Aoc/Eve/Warhammer Online/Gw2/TSW/Tera/Defiance/STO/AoW/DE/Firefall/Darkfall/Neverwinter/PS2

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