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General Discussion Forum » The Pub at MMORPG.COM » XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

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298 posts found
  Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 6980

12/26/12 1:06:24 PM#61


Originally posted by often

The problem with that assumption is that you cannot prove they are not significantly different from the average MMO gamer.

Yep, but I do have solid indication that xfire users represent average MMO gamer - there is historical correlation with official data and/or other sources.

Empirical evidence.

I do not claim the estimates are accurate but you can use the data to make estimates accurate enough for these boards.

  Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 6980

12/26/12 1:09:05 PM#62


Originally posted by Cecropia

If you cannot understand how people who would put a program such as XFire on their PCs are not representative of the average gamer, then you are simply out of touch with the mainstream.

Please do explain to me how installation of xfire affects my average play time and frequency - related sample characteristics.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10635

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

12/26/12 1:09:26 PM#63

No two people use the same method to calculate population numbers from XFire numbers. Nobody ever accurately predicts population numbers for games before they are published by the developer (if they are published by the developer). Every calculation requires an assumption on the part of the person doing the calculations. This should tell you something about XFire's accuracy in regards to game population numbers.

If XFire were an accurate indicator of game population numbers, the developers would not need to publish their population numbers. We would know the population numbers from XFire's numbers. We can't do this.

Why not? One, XFire holds back key bits of information that they use for marketing...they sell it. That's how they survive. Two, they aren't interested in game populations at all. That's not the information they are interested in, so they don't bother trying to get it. They are interested in the information that marketers and analytic firms are interested in. How many games to gamers play? How many hours a day do they spend playing? What types of games do they play the most? And so on. Overall game populations are a secondary consideration.

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 6980

12/26/12 1:10:08 PM#64


Originally posted by madazz

Problem is...

The only problem is you do not have any argument besides your authority and when your authority is questioned, you do not come up with anything that would support that authority...

  Cecropia

Gumshoe

Joined: 3/06/09
Posts: 3274

Poacher killer.

12/26/12 1:20:11 PM#65
Originally posted by Gdemami

 


Originally posted by Cecropia

If you cannot understand how people who would put a program such as XFire on their PCs are not representative of the average gamer, then you are simply out of touch with the mainstream.

 

Please do explain to me how installation of xfire affects my average play time and frequency - related sample characteristics.

What? You might want to reread what you quoted. You're not making sense.

"Chuck's a good fighter but he's a UFC fighter... this is Pride." - Quinton Rampage Jackson
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb

  madazz

Novice Member

Joined: 10/07/03
Posts: 1306

12/26/12 1:25:17 PM#66
Originally posted by Gdemami

 


Originally posted by madazz

Problem is...

 

The only problem is you do not have any argument besides your authority and when your authority is questioned, you do not come up with anything that would support that authority...

ok.

  Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 6980

12/26/12 1:34:04 PM#67


Originally posted by Cecropia

What? You might want to reread what you quoted. You're not making sense.

What part isn't clear to you?

You implied that xfire makes MMO gamer characteristics somehow "special" and different from average MMO gamer, I am asking what those differences are.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10635

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

12/26/12 1:35:37 PM#68


Originally posted by Gdemami

Originally posted by Cecropia

If you cannot understand how people who would put a program such as XFire on their PCs are not representative of the average gamer, then you are simply out of touch with the mainstream.


Please do explain to me how installation of xfire affects my average play time and frequency - related sample characteristics.




It's related to the people who are part of the sample. The entire sample has a specific, known bias. People who would voluntarily install XFire. I have no idea how that affects the results, but it's the kind of thing you want to examine and adjust for if you're trying to get from behaviors of your sample group to behaviors of the general population.

Every result obtained, including average play time and frequency is affected by that bias because every member of the sample has that bias. It's not so much that the bias exists, but it's not examined or dealt with in any way. It's assumed that the bias towards installing XFire does not affect the results. It's yet another thing about XFire that's assumed.

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  MoutonDocile

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/15/12
Posts: 17

12/26/12 1:44:11 PM#69

X-Fire measures x-fire users. iTunes chart measures itunes users. Xbox marketplace charts measures xbox users. PS Store charts measures PS users. Etc.

 

You can extrapolate a trend from these charts, but nothing precise or really definitive. Games with lots of hour played are obviously more popular than those with lower numbers and that's all you can say about the numbers.

  Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 6980

12/26/12 1:45:54 PM#70


Originally posted by lizardbones

It's not so much that the bias exists, but it's not examined or dealt with in any way.

It is examined - there is a correlation between trends in xfire and official data.

I simply do not see a reason to think otherwise when empirical evidence supports such conclusion.

Again, I am not claiming it is accurate in terms of any serious study but for these boards it is more than fine - whether game has 360k subs or 320k isn't all that important and you can still assume trends from there since sample characteristics is unlikely changing dramatically.

  Icewhite

Made History

Joined: 7/11/11
Posts: 6495

Pink, it's like red but not quite.

12/26/12 1:48:33 PM#71
I thought the mods outlawed this type of thread.

Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  Zeblade

Novice Member

Joined: 1/10/06
Posts: 936

12/26/12 1:53:13 PM#72
I think maybe a few years ago this could be used but I dont know ONE person that still uses this. So any thing it shows will be really off.  You would be better just guessing.
  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10635

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

12/26/12 1:55:36 PM#73


Originally posted by Icewhite
I thought the mods outlawed this type of thread.


Not exactly. They are allowing the conversation to continue in one thread because all the other threads eventually became the same conversation.

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  Icewhite

Made History

Joined: 7/11/11
Posts: 6495

Pink, it's like red but not quite.

12/26/12 1:57:39 PM#74
Originally posted by lizardbones
Not exactly. They are allowing the conversation to continue in one thread because all the other threads eventually became the same conversation.

Like the previous two multi-hundred page threads, from the same op, that they previously allowed to continue?

I believe we need to reexamine our "spam" definition.

Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  Sukiyaki

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/14/09
Posts: 1298

12/26/12 2:04:03 PM#75
Originally posted by Scot
Xfire is better than pulling numbers out of the air but that's about it.

I would agree but then you have your special xfire speculation trolls who top even that.

Pulling numbers out of thin air and use them as basis for calculations using xfire statistics. "lets assume game x has y player therefore game x must have z. Well the numbers do not exactly fit my prejudice. So lets assume magic factor a for reason b lowers gamex x to d. See proof your game fails.  Its statistics! Science! It cant be wrong! Adults do that! Did I already mention preelection polls prove my xfire speculation is a valid method to gauge player?"

 

Just the opposite of one of the usual excuses to  justify it as accurate. "Hey these randomly out of context comparisons I just made look almost very close to what I would have pulled from my rear. They look very accurate in my opinion! Again xfire was proven accurate!! " the one right after "The stats always correlated with unnamed never cited "official data" of games because I said so. How can you ignore all this strong factual evidence!" and before "Hey xfire user play games more on the weekend and holidays, just like real humans! This clearly proofs user of this software couldnt be biased to certain genres/playstyles!"

 

Coinicidence this topic was only so long banned as GW2 was on top of WoW? Too dangerous to be talked about? Cant allow to spread the word while danger remains it could have stayed there? Now that its back below its suddenly allowed again.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10635

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

12/26/12 2:04:36 PM#76


Originally posted by Gdemami

Originally posted by lizardbones

It's not so much that the bias exists, but it's not examined or dealt with in any way.


It is examined - there is a correlation between trends in xfire and official data.

I simply do not see a reason to think otherwise when empirical evidence supports such conclusion.

Again, I am not claiming it is accurate in terms of any serious study but for these boards it is more than fine - whether game has 360k subs or 320k isn't all that important and you can still assume trends from there since sample characteristics is unlikely changing dramatically.




Every member of the sample shared the bias towards being willing to install XFire on their computer. This bias has not been examined in a way that tells us what this means and how it affects the results obtained from XFire's data.

The problem with saying there's no difference between 360k and 320k players is that both numbers are assumptions.

If there's no way to go from XFire numbers to population numbers with any degree of accuracy at all, then there's no way to tell how accurate the rise and drop in population is either. I think we can assume that as XFire's numbers go up, the game's population goes up, and as XFire's numbers go down, the game's population goes down, but there's no way to tell by how much. You can't even say that a percentage drop in XFire's population means the same or a similar percentage drop in the game's population. You can, at best give it two degrees of accuracy for rising and falling numbers; "A little" or "A lot".

Here's an experiment. With Eve's population numbers known, and XFire's player counts for Eve known, we should be able to tell if XFire is at least consistent. Each day, or each week, take the XFire number of players and the Eve number of players (how ever often Eve publishes their population numbers) and then see what the relation is between XFire's numbers and Eve's numbers. How stable is that relation?

** edit **
For instance, right now there are 49,375 people playing Eve. XFire shows 690 people. The relation for Eve Online/XFire is currently 71.557971. So if we multiply XFire's number by that ratio, we should get something similar to Eve's current number of players.

Eve's current players: http://eve-offline.net/
XFire's Stats for Eve: http://beta.xfire.com/games/eve

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  Reas43

Apprentice Member

Joined: 4/27/11
Posts: 308

12/26/12 2:10:14 PM#77

When TSW launched its B2P model, if you downloaded the game after the announcement it came bundled with X-fire already checked in a box to install amound several "Accept" windows during the installation.  I think maneuvers such as those are definitely going to screw the "X-fire factor" when compared with games that don't come with the program bundled in and pre-checked.

I'd say it still has use to observe a trend of increasing, decreasing or stabilizing pops in a gross manner.  but by no means a way to asess actual player population.

  botrytis

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/04/05
Posts: 2532

12/26/12 2:13:23 PM#78
Originally posted by Reas43

When TSW launched its B2P model, if you downloaded the game after the announcement it came bundled with X-fire already checked in a box to install amound several "Accept" windows during the installation.  I think maneuvers such as those are definitely going to screw the "X-fire factor" when compared with games that don't come with the program bundled in and pre-checked.

I'd say it still has use to observe a trend of increasing, decreasing or stabilizing pops in a gross manner.  but by no means a way to asess actual player population.

Funcom might be getting some cash from XFire to bundle.

"In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  erictlewis

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/08/08
Posts: 3058

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results.

12/26/12 2:17:04 PM#79


Originally posted by Icewhite

Originally posted by lizardbones Not exactly. They are allowing the conversation to continue in one thread because all the other threads eventually became the same conversation.
Like the previous two multi-hundred page threads, from the same op, that they previously allowed to continue?

I believe we need to reexamine our "spam" definition.


I am thinking the mods must be off today the last 2 times we had this very discussion the thread was shut down. And yes I think its been more than 2 times, that we had this very thread and they all been locked.

  Rthuth434

Novice Member

Joined: 12/26/12
Posts: 367

12/26/12 2:20:57 PM#80
Originally posted by madazz
Originally posted by Rthuth434
The Secret World's XFire numbers are bogus, the game installs /runs it when you reinstall or download it.

I call BS on this. I have installed TSW 3x or more now. I have never had xfire on ANY of my PC's at any point in time EVER.

it's pre selected for EVERYONE and if you just click nextnextnext like 99% of people you have just padded TSW's Xfire activity.

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