44 pages and counting.  lol.

One more week and it's off the charts! Up to #7

 

DAY

DATE

# PLAYERS

% PREV WEEK

% FROM MAX

NOTES

Monday	05/03/12	4582	-19,42%	-61,17%
Tuesday	06/03/12	4371	-9,37%	-62,96%
Wednesday	07/03/12	4398	-6,62%	-62,73%
Thursday	08/03/12	4272	-4,92%	-63,80%
Friday	09/03/12	4216	-8,03%	-64,27%
Saturday	10/03/12	4487	-5,68%	-61,97%
Sunday	11/03/12	4652	-8,26%	-60,58%
Monday	12/03/12	4384	-4,32%	-62,85%
Tuesday	13/03/12	4170	-4,60%	-64,66%
Wednesday	14/03/12	4299	-2,25%	-63,57%
Thursday	15/03/12	4444	4,03%	-62,34%	start free trials
Friday	16/03/12	4667	10,70%	-60,45%
Saturday	17/03/12	4981	11,01%	-57,79%
Sunday	18/03/12	5186	11,48%	-56,05%

 

Disclaimer: this has nothing to do with general population trends.

Originally posted by Metentso

One more week and it's off the charts! Up to #7

 

DAY

DATE

# PLAYERS

% PREV WEEK

% FROM MAX

NOTES

Monday	05/03/12	4582	-19,42%	-61,17%
Tuesday	06/03/12	4371	-9,37%	-62,96%
Wednesday	07/03/12	4398	-6,62%	-62,73%
Thursday	08/03/12	4272	-4,92%	-63,80%
Friday	09/03/12	4216	-8,03%	-64,27%
Saturday	10/03/12	4487	-5,68%	-61,97%
Sunday	11/03/12	4652	-8,26%	-60,58%
Monday	12/03/12	4384	-4,32%	-62,85%
Tuesday	13/03/12	4170	-4,60%	-64,66%
Wednesday	14/03/12	4299	-2,25%	-63,57%
Thursday	15/03/12	4444	4,03%	-62,34%	start free trials
Friday	16/03/12	4667	10,70%	-60,45%
Saturday	17/03/12	4981	11,01%	-57,79%
Sunday	18/03/12	5186	11,48%	-56,05%

 

Disclaimer: this has nothing to do with general population trends.

 

You would imagine a drop off over the next few days vs prior week, now the weekend trial is over, maybe not down to previous level or beyond due to the 7day trials on offer or some retention from those subbing. It would be interesting to see what the flat earth society make of these figures rising during a free trial period if XFire has no correlation at all to SWTOR users.

 

Edit: ah, also the end of the initial subscriber 60 day game cards to take into account depending on proportion of XFire users and game are users correlating.

Originally posted by RefMinor

Originally posted by Metentso

One more week and it's off the charts! Up to #7

 

You would imagine a drop off over the next few days vs prior week, now the weekend trial is over, maybe not down to previous level or beyond due to the 7day trials on offer or some retention from those subbing. It would be interesting to see what the flat earth society make of these figures rising during a free trial period if XFire has no correlation at all to SWTOR users.

 

Edit: ah, also the end of the initial subscriber 60 day game cards to take into account depending on proportion of XFire users and game are users correlating.

I should mark those days in the chart. Do you know if friday is included in the free week-end?

And the end of 60 day cards is the 20th?

I think the free trial ran last thursday to yesterday midnight central us time, which might run into today depending on time zones. I think the 60day cards ran out 19th or 20th . The friend trial is 7 days from activation starting maybe a week or so back, I am not sure exactly when.

Excel check - those who started on the 20th Dec are into a new 30 day period, the 19th.

7day trials started on the 6th March I think; line slope may have changed but the lack of any uptick may be why EA launched the free trial so soon - before 1.2 etc. Of course if they had waited they would have been outside EA's reporting period - which is suggestive.

There was a 7th day free trial the 6th? I got mine the 14th.

Originally posted by sgel

Originally posted by RefMinor
Does anyone know how GW2 is looking on XFire

Looking pretty good... considering it hasn't been released yet >;/

I can't actually see GW2 on XFire (maybe I should switch to the none beta version?) but assuming it was there (and I don't doubt you) this would suggest some XFire users are(were?) in the beta.

SWTOR actually showed on XFire pre-launch .... a low number initiallly and a slight bump around the open beta. All in all what you might expect.

Originally posted by RefMinor
I think the free trial ran last thursday to yesterday midnight central us time, which might run into today depending on time zones. I think the 60day cards ran out 19th or 20th . The friend trial is 7 days from activation starting maybe a week or so back, I am not sure exactly when.

I have a question about the 30- 60 day cards, are all accounts based on the same time periods. Reason I ask, my son activated his account dec 26th, and his free 30 days didn't expire until Feb 2nd. If he had bought a 30 or 60 day card, he could have waited till the 2nd to re up it. So he would still have an active sub till the end of march. Or would it somehow count 60 days from the dec 26th date?

 

For now I wil leave it like this.

The 7 day trial started 6th March and can be started at anytime. Some will have started 7th march others today and all days in between, it depends when invites were sent from the current subscriber base and when those invites we're accepted by the recipient.

Originally posted by Bunks

Originally posted by RefMinor
I think the free trial ran last thursday to yesterday midnight central us time, which might run into today depending on time zones. I think the 60day cards ran out 19th or 20th . The friend trial is 7 days from activation starting maybe a week or so back, I am not sure exactly when.

I have a question about the 30- 60 day cards, are all accounts based on the same time periods. Reason I ask, my son activated his account dec 26th, and his free 30 days didn't expire until Feb 2nd. If he had bought a 30 or 60 day card, he could have waited till the 2nd to re up it. So he would still have an active sub till the end of march. Or would it somehow count 60 days from the dec 26th date?

 

Weird, 30 days should have ended before then, about 25th Jan. The 60 card would run from when the 30 day expired.

 

The assumption would be the bulk of the games would have been registered on 22nd Dec with a spike on 25/26th as presents were opened. You would expect a drop 90 days after that if more people did not renew than new subscribers activated the game.

EGA started 13th Dec for a maximum of 7days; launch was to have been the 22nd but was brought forward to the 20th.

EA announced 1M+ on the 23rd Dec - so most were not presents. This seems to have matched - purely by accident of course! - what XFire showed; pretty flat from 20th Dec and then a blip c. 1st/2nd Jan. No way of knowing when the other 1M+ joined of course. 

EA's announcement of 1.7M with 'half' (850k) in their 30 day period suggests that there were 850k activated in January - bit hard to decipher of course but there was talk of  the numbers being 41 or 42 days  into the game.

And they only announced 2M saled.One interpretation (note: nothing to do with XFire). 1.15M - say - sold before year end; most i.e. 1M were pre-orders or day 1 purchases. 850k sold in January. Of the 1.15M 850k subscribed for month 2.

Sharp drop as RefMinor predicted after the free week-end, going down to minimums and back to the slower descending channel. 

Still retaining #6 in the general classifications and #2 in the category of MMOs,  with a margin of 10.000 hours more than Aion and only 50.000 from WoW.

 

Originally posted by Metentso

Sharp drop as RefMinor predicted after the free week-end, going down to minimums and back to the slower descending channel. 

Still retaining #6 in the general classifications and #2 in the category of MMOs,  with a margin of 10.000 hours more than Aion and only 50.000 from WoW.

 

So number 2 in MMOs, or 6th overall, and yet it is dieing?

 

Suuuuuuuuuuure

 

I will never understand how someone could despise something so much they stomp their feet daily, or keep charts, but when they tell me something is number 2, in a field of many other MMOs, "failure" is the last message they are conveying.

Originally posted by Moaky07

Originally posted by Metentso

Sharp drop as RefMinor predicted after the free week-end, going down to minimums and back to the slower descending channel. 

Still retaining #6 in the general classifications and #2 in the category of MMOs,  with a margin of 10.000 hours more than Aion and only 50.000 from WoW.

 

So number 2 in MMOs, or 6th overall, and yet it is dieing?

 

Suuuuuuuuuuure

 

I will never understand how someone could despise something so much they stomp their feet daily, or keep charts, but when they tell me something is number 2, in a field of many other MMOs, "failure" is the last message they are conveying.

 

It's more about statistics than SWTOR in this thread, it's clear in my opinion that XFire does have some validity in predicting sub trends if not actual numbers and yet many people assert it has no relevance whatsoever. This thread is about collecting the data and making predictions and seeing if the data matches.

 

For example we saw a clear ~10% rise in the SWTOR XFire population during the free weekend which fell as the trial period ended, prediction and empirical data matched.

 

As someone with a scientific background when people tell me the earth is flat, I feel a need to challenge that, and the bet way is to provide data and evidence. does it matter in the scheme of things, no, I am enjoying this thread, yes, and like you with SWTOR, that is what I care about.

Originally posted by RefMinor
As someone with a scientific background when people tell me the earth is flat, I feel a need to challenge that, and the bet way is to provide data and evidence. does it matter in the scheme of things, no, I am enjoying this thread, yes, and like you with SWTOR, that is what I care about.

Too bad xfire=flat in a proper analogy.


As someone with a scientific background you will completely understand that statement.  It's a simple matter of 'burden of proof'.  Science is against inference and it's lack of proof, period.


It may be plausible that Xfire might be able to accurately trend a game at a point.  However, just as quickly as it's 'accurate' it can become inaccurate.


Any seemingly accurate correlations should not be misunderstood as precedent or proof.  They especially should not be misconstrued as 'factual' and then applied to other games.


Furthermore, don't be so quick to think that being able to plot the extremes and volatile changes makes it 'accurate'.  It's like saying that a poll showing people's dislike of economic problems can accurately poll which candidate will win.  One does not equate the other, especially when one is a no-brainer.(no one wants a depression)

 

I cringe every time I see Xfire supporters call themselves 'scientific'.  I cringe even harded every time I get pulled into this debate.  ;)   *waves goodbye*

Originally posted by Cavod

Originally posted by RefMinor
As someone with a scientific background when people tell me the earth is flat, I feel a need to challenge that, and the bet way is to provide data and evidence. does it matter in the scheme of things, no, I am enjoying this thread, yes, and like you with SWTOR, that is what I care about.

Too bad xfire=flat in a proper analogy.


As someone with a scientific background you will completely understand that statement.  It's a simple matter of 'burden of proof'.  Science is against inference and it's lack of proof, period.


It may be plausible that Xfire might be able to accurately trend a game at a point.  However, just as quickly as it's 'accurate' it can become inaccurate.


Any seemingly accurate correlations should not be misunderstood as precedent or proof.  They especially should not be misconstrued as 'factual' and then applied to other games.


Furthermore, don't be so quick to think that being able to plot the extremes and volatile changes makes it 'accurate'.  It's like saying that a poll showing people's dislike of economic problems can accurately poll which candidate will win.  One does not equate the other, especially when one is a no-brainer.(no one wants a depression)

 

I cringe every time I see Xfire supporters call themselves 'scientific'.  I cringe even harded every time I get pulled into this debate.  ;)   *waves goodbye*

Xfire is accurate, it is only inaccurate to people who do not want to accept that SWTOR is plummeting.

Originally posted by superniceguy

Originally posted by Cavod

Originally posted by RefMinor
As someone with a scientific background when people tell me the earth is flat, I feel a need to challenge that, and the bet way is to provide data and evidence. does it matter in the scheme of things, no, I am enjoying this thread, yes, and like you with SWTOR, that is what I care about.

Too bad xfire=flat in a proper analogy.


As someone with a scientific background you will completely understand that statement.  It's a simple matter of 'burden of proof'.  Science is against inference and it's lack of proof, period.


It may be plausible that Xfire might be able to accurately trend a game at a point.  However, just as quickly as it's 'accurate' it can become inaccurate.


Any seemingly accurate correlations should not be misunderstood as precedent or proof.  They especially should not be misconstrued as 'factual' and then applied to other games.


Furthermore, don't be so quick to think that being able to plot the extremes and volatile changes makes it 'accurate'.  It's like saying that a poll showing people's dislike of economic problems can accurately poll which candidate will win.  One does not equate the other, especially when one is a no-brainer.(no one wants a depression)

 

I cringe every time I see Xfire supporters call themselves 'scientific'.  I cringe even harded every time I get pulled into this debate.  ;)   *waves goodbye*

Xfire is accurate, it is only inaccurate to people who do not want to accept that SWTOR is plummeting.

 First is SWTOR were "plummeting" It wouldn't prove Xfire an accurate predictor in all circumstances. Second Xfire doesn't show SWTOR is plummeting it's just the normal themepark decline. You're blinded by prejudice. You keep repeating the same things hoping they will be true despite all contrary evidence. 

Originally posted by superniceguy

Xfire is accurate, it is only inaccurate to people who do not want to accept that SWTOR is plummeting.

Too bad the majority of us knew about Xfire's inaccuracy before SWTOR was pitched.


Many many many users on this very board have long since shown Xfire being inaccurate.  Yet there remains those who would rather post edgy and rude comments than face their own ignorance and prejudice.