Originally posted by Karteli

SWTOR was just a farse in their analysis.  What EA really wan't to sell to investors is that people who use their "F2P" freemium gamegram style equates to more customers.  Which, if they didn't say is true, isn't true.

 

Smoke and mirrors are what this investor call is all about.  Smoke and mirrors.

 

I think it's amusing that investors believe whatever they are told as long as they are making a profit. 

There. Just wanted to make that statement more accurate.

I haven't listened to the earnings call yet, but this quote is from EA's prepared statements:

 

"As a reminder, on November 15th we launched our free-to-play option for Star Wars: The Old Republic. Very early indications have been positive and we are pleased with the initial results but it is too early to know how successful this will be in the long term."

 

SWTOR wasn't mentioned much, and when it was, EA wasn't exacly doing cartwheels and singing Edelweiss.

As a whole, they (EA)  lost money again, but not as much as people expected. They blamed a lull in console game sales due to people wanting a next gen console and they blamed the recesion for an overall decrease in sales across the board.

They also put MoH in the ground, and don't seem to have much on the horizon.

They did say FIFA, FIFA, FIFA, and FIFA.

As to the recesion, technically it's over and I'm guessing the shareholders are getting tired about hearing about it 5 years later.

Yep on a GAAP basis EA lost money again - a real pain when you have to allow for things like court liability payments and stock bonuses in your results. What do you mean they happen every year? They are different one-off payments I tell you :)

More seriously: $185M in digital revenue of which over $100M was for FIFA. So at best $85M for everything else including Madden (grew again EA said) and - from previous results - tihings like PopCap (as was), Sims Social, Battlefield 3 (the DLC stuff talked about in previous quarters NOT the premium subscription revenue to be recognised in the non-GAAP results in Q4) and a host of other stuff.

Of course SWTOR subs won't be in this number either so the only thing one really has to go on is the "started OK but to soon to tell" comment.

My opinion - and that is all it is - is that this is a fairly downbeat statement and not really positive. If January's numbers had been better good I think the message would have been more encouraging e.g. to early to say but started well and is growing. With the focus on cost control - head count, marketing, pay etc. - I think the going will be very tough. As hinted at by the SWTOR team previously: if Markeb doesn't pay for itself then ...

(Haven't seen the transcript of the questions and answers yet.)

Originally posted by Sevenstar61

Comment from EA CFO Blake Jorgensen.

Extra content and free-to-play contributed $185 million, up 50% led by FIFA and Madden
Ultimate Team and Star Wars: The Old Republic. These revenues relate to businesses on
PC or consoles, where consumers pay for additional digital content -- including virtual
characters, map packs and micro-transactions associated with browser based games or
MMO’s – like Star Wars. As a reminder, on November 15th we launched our free-to-play
option for Star Wars: The Old Republic. Very early indications have been positive and we
are pleased with the initial results but it is too early to know how successful this will be in the
long term.

 

Subscriptions, advertising, and other digital revenue contributed $79 million, growing 18%
over the same period last year. The current year includes a full quarter of Star Wars
subscriptions, but it was offset by a decline in other licensing digital revenue.

Seems a lot more positive than the last call which only said SWTOR had between 500k and 1 m subbs. They must have some hope for SWTOR with them hiring again for programers. At least they aren't obsessed with the above 500k subbs any more with the Cartel Market items been sold.

Cheers,

BadOrb.

Hey, I was the guy who talked about the new programers being hired.

That said, it does make one wonder what EA will do if, to use their terms, in the long run, the Cartel Shop does not turn out to be succesful.

Personally, I think the game needs content and optimization. I know Makeb is coming, but it needs content on a more rapid basis after that to be sustainable, even if they are getting more revenue per subscriber.

The FTP switch is a bit of a ruse. The FTP population is starting to wander off, be it attrition ot greener pastures in new FTPesque games (Terra, TSW, Path of Exile), but they were never much of a concern monetarily. The question is how many subs remain, and how much they drop in the cash shop.

If you peel away the FTP players, the game is kind of a niche, but a big niche. My dim view of certain corporate and design decisions aside, it would be nice if the players of the only SW IP MMO could keep playing in a universe they love. (And hopefully get a better product then they have been getting to this point.)

As a former stock analyst, I can say with some certainty some truths about conference calls:

1) If it is going well, the company will make a big deal about it.

2) If it is not going well, they hedge and say things like "too early to tell".

Trust me, if the F2P model was doing very well, it would have been highlighted.  Furthermore, you can't really read into the fact that they mentioned it this time but not last time. The key is that they have to comment on the switch to F2P, and saying something like it's too early to tell translates into "not doing well" to a savy wall street investor. When you combine it with how bad console game sales have been lately as people switch to mobile, it's a really tough business.

Finally, it is true that with some subs and reduced staff they can make it profitable, which is good for current subs since the game isn't likely to close in the near future. However, they will never make the $$ needed to recoup their investment. 

Originally posted by BadOrb

Originally posted by Sevenstar61

Comment from EA CFO Blake Jorgensen.

Extra content and free-to-play contributed $185 million, up 50% led by FIFA and Madden
Ultimate Team and Star Wars: The Old Republic. These revenues relate to businesses on
PC or consoles, where consumers pay for additional digital content -- including virtual
characters, map packs and micro-transactions associated with browser based games or
MMO’s – like Star Wars. As a reminder, on November 15th we launched our free-to-play
option for Star Wars: The Old Republic. Very early indications have been positive and we
are pleased with the initial results but it is too early to know how successful this will be in the
long term.

 

Subscriptions, advertising, and other digital revenue contributed $79 million, growing 18%
over the same period last year. The current year includes a full quarter of Star Wars
subscriptions, but it was offset by a decline in other licensing digital revenue.

Seems a lot more positive than the last call which only said SWTOR had between 500k and 1 m subbs. They must have some hope for SWTOR with them hiring again for programers. At least they aren't obsessed with the above 500k subbs any more with the Cartel Market items been sold.

Cheers,

BadOrb.

The 500k to 1m subs announcement was the previous call in Jul/Aug, what was said at Oct/Nov? Probably the lowest as I would imagine people were holding off until F2P from Aug to Nov.

They can't be obsessed about 500K subs, but they probably still need $7.5 million, and I guess they are getting it or close to it with F2P, but sound like if the populations / spending in store decrease again, the game could be in trouble, as it does not sound like they are getting the equivalent of 1-2 million subs, which would give leeway of a possible drop

Originally posted by superniceguy

Originally posted by BadOrb

Originally posted by Sevenstar61

Comment from EA CFO Blake Jorgensen.

Extra content and free-to-play contributed $185 million, up 50% led by FIFA and Madden
Ultimate Team and Star Wars: The Old Republic. These revenues relate to businesses on
PC or consoles, where consumers pay for additional digital content -- including virtual
characters, map packs and micro-transactions associated with browser based games or
MMO’s – like Star Wars. As a reminder, on November 15th we launched our free-to-play
option for Star Wars: The Old Republic. Very early indications have been positive and we
are pleased with the initial results but it is too early to know how successful this will be in the
long term.

 

Subscriptions, advertising, and other digital revenue contributed $79 million, growing 18%
over the same period last year. The current year includes a full quarter of Star Wars
subscriptions, but it was offset by a decline in other licensing digital revenue.

Seems a lot more positive than the last call which only said SWTOR had between 500k and 1 m subbs. They must have some hope for SWTOR with them hiring again for programers. At least they aren't obsessed with the above 500k subbs any more with the Cartel Market items been sold.

Cheers,

BadOrb.

The 500k to 1m subs announcement was the previous call in Jul/Aug, what was said at Oct/Nov? Probably the lowest as I would imagine people were holding off until F2P from Aug to Nov.

They can't be obsessed about 500K subs, but they probably still need $7.5 million, and I guess they are getting it or close to it with F2P, but sound like if the populations / spending in store decrease again, the game could be in trouble, as it does not sound like they are getting the equivalent of 1-2 million subs, which would give leeway of a possible drop

You are right I think the oct/nov one skipped over swtor somewhat , it was basically we are over 500k still , don't quote me on that though.

I doubt it is above 500 k anymore TBH , but the digital purchases should be helping it to make some decent cash. How long did they need to make $7.5 mil per month for did they say again ? The game has been out a while now , maybe the box sales and all the madness of having 2.3 mil sold and 1.7 subs has broken it even ? It's all hearsay I know that , well our opinions of what we know. Still it seems to be resonably healthy , it has dropped on my server slightly , but not by much. It needs this Ilum update I guess to get it back up a little.

Cheers,

BadOrb.

Successful games do not have their information lumped together with other games in order to hide what is generating what revenue.

I really love how suddenly EA is trustworthy after so many lies and misdirects.

Originally posted by Sevenstar61

Originally posted by Karteli 

And EA called it a success today too, while lumping it with other games. There isn't anything joyful about that.  Telling every investor that SWTOR brought $185 million, when combined with 2 other top EA games.

How many paid  extra content for Madden and FIFA were released in last 3 months? because 185 millions contribute just to extra content and F2P  - it is not cost of the purchasing these games.

Where does it say the extra content has to be released in last 3 months?

A quick peek around the web revealed at least 3 Madden versions that have DLC and they all rake in the cash to EAs pockets. Of that $184m mentioned, I'd be surprised if SWTOR brought $20m.

Originally posted by Pelaaja

Originally posted by Sevenstar61

Originally posted by Karteli 

And EA called it a success today too, while lumping it with other games. There isn't anything joyful about that.  Telling every investor that SWTOR brought $185 million, when combined with 2 other top EA games.

How many paid  extra content for Madden and FIFA were released in last 3 months? because 185 millions contribute just to extra content and F2P  - it is not cost of the purchasing these games.

Where does it say the extra content has to be released in last 3 months?

A quick peek around the web revealed at least 3 Madden versions that have DLC and they all rake in the cash to EAs pockets. Of that $184m mentioned, I'd be surprised if SWTOR brought $20m.

In Japan and Asia FIFA is FTP - there is no purchase cost if I understand what EA has said in previous calls; either way $100M+ of the $185M came from FIFA. So everything else generated at most $85M.

(Got to remember though that some of the SWTOR revenue will be in the "subscriptions" number.)

 

I do agree with SBE1 though - and there was one question that got an interesting off the cuff answer from JR:

The question was whether the bulk of EA's profits were now coming from a couple of titles as a result of MoH not doing well.

Before he agreed - and I don't think the analyst was suggesting that EA only had two profitable titles - JR listed 8 profitable titles. He actually mentioned 10 but FIFA came up twice whilst he was trying to come up with the list - which is why I used the phrase off the cuff. SWTOR wasn't in the list however.

If SWTOR was profitable I think JR would have remembered it - so I think it is losing money. We also have the comment from the CFO last quarter that "at some stage the game needs to start making a profit".

 

Now when a company has gone into emergency mode - EA's words - reducing headcount, marketing costs etc. etc. - to book every last cent they can - working on an unprofitable product is not a good place to be. And this coming quarter won't be any different as it is EA's Q4. The full year results are coming and post Christmas is usually the weak quarter. And from the sound of it they are doing a full product review. 

Originally posted by gervaise1

Originally posted by Pelaaja

Originally posted by Sevenstar61

Originally posted by Karteli 

And EA called it a success today too, while lumping it with other games. There isn't anything joyful about that.  Telling every investor that SWTOR brought $185 million, when combined with 2 other top EA games.

How many paid  extra content for Madden and FIFA were released in last 3 months? because 185 millions contribute just to extra content and F2P  - it is not cost of the purchasing these games.

Where does it say the extra content has to be released in last 3 months?

A quick peek around the web revealed at least 3 Madden versions that have DLC and they all rake in the cash to EAs pockets. Of that $184m mentioned, I'd be surprised if SWTOR brought $20m.

In Japan and Asia FIFA is FTP - there is no purchase cost if I understand what EA has said in previous calls; either way $100M+ of the $185M came from FIFA. So everything else generated at most $85M.

(Got to remember though that some of the SWTOR revenue will be in the "subscriptions" number.)

 

I do agree with SBE1 though - and there was one question that got an interesting off the cuff answer from JR:

The question was whether the bulk of EA's profits were now coming from a couple of titles as a result of MoH not doing well.

Before he agreed - and I don't think the analyst was suggesting that EA only had two profitable titles - JR listed 8 profitable titles. He actually mentioned 10 but FIFA came up twice whilst he was trying to come up with the list - which is why I used the phrase off the cuff. SWTOR wasn't in the list however.

If SWTOR was profitable I think JR would have remembered it - so I think it is losing money. We also have the comment from the CFO last quarter that "at some stage the game needs to start making a profit".

 

Now when a company has gone into emergency mode - EA's words - reducing headcount, marketing costs etc. etc. - to book every last cent they can - working on an unprofitable product is not a good place to be. And this coming quarter won't be any different as it is EA's Q4. The full year results are coming and post Christmas is usually the weak quarter. And from the sound of it they are doing a full product review. 

I don't think they have business case in SWTOR, but they might be tied with a contract that would cost them more money to get rid of than they are losing when keeping it live.

This doesn't trump the fact that some people are enjoying playing SWTOR, but it predicts fast shutdown once the contract ends.

Originally posted by Pelaaja

Originally posted by gervaise1

Originally posted by Pelaaja

Originally posted by Sevenstar61

Originally posted by Karteli 

And EA called it a success today too, while lumping it with other games. There isn't anything joyful about that.  Telling every investor that SWTOR brought $185 million, when combined with 2 other top EA games.

How many paid  extra content for Madden and FIFA were released in last 3 months? because 185 millions contribute just to extra content and F2P  - it is not cost of the purchasing these games.

Where does it say the extra content has to be released in last 3 months?

A quick peek around the web revealed at least 3 Madden versions that have DLC and they all rake in the cash to EAs pockets. Of that $184m mentioned, I'd be surprised if SWTOR brought $20m.

In Japan and Asia FIFA is FTP - there is no purchase cost if I understand what EA has said in previous calls; either way $100M+ of the $185M came from FIFA. So everything else generated at most $85M.

(Got to remember though that some of the SWTOR revenue will be in the "subscriptions" number.)

 

I do agree with SBE1 though - and there was one question that got an interesting off the cuff answer from JR:

The question was whether the bulk of EA's profits were now coming from a couple of titles as a result of MoH not doing well.

Before he agreed - and I don't think the analyst was suggesting that EA only had two profitable titles - JR listed 8 profitable titles. He actually mentioned 10 but FIFA came up twice whilst he was trying to come up with the list - which is why I used the phrase off the cuff. SWTOR wasn't in the list however.

If SWTOR was profitable I think JR would have remembered it - so I think it is losing money. We also have the comment from the CFO last quarter that "at some stage the game needs to start making a profit".

 

Now when a company has gone into emergency mode - EA's words - reducing headcount, marketing costs etc. etc. - to book every last cent they can - working on an unprofitable product is not a good place to be. And this coming quarter won't be any different as it is EA's Q4. The full year results are coming and post Christmas is usually the weak quarter. And from the sound of it they are doing a full product review. 

I don't think they have business case in SWTOR, but they might be tied with a contract that would cost them more money to get rid of than they are losing when keeping it live.

This doesn't trump the fact that some people are enjoying playing SWTOR, but it predicts fast shutdown once the contract ends.

which is probably what happened with Earth and Beyond

I do hope things turn around, because despite all the things that SW;TOR doesnt do all that well, and PVP is definitely not very good in the game, although even that is better than the space minigame, the few things it does do however, it does pretty well. It does remain though, a game with issues

Originally posted by Karteli

It's uplifting, that's why.  EA isn't in the doghouse yet ... oh snap nevermind.

 

Although, they need 500k subscribers to break even .. or 7.5 million (90+ million per year).

 

 

EA fell short.  They had to lump all their successful games together once again. $185 million for FIFA, Ultimate Madden, and SWTOR.

 

EA lumped SWTOR with the success of other games in previous quarters too.  SWTOR isn't making money if they have to do that.  FIFA had a big backlash in 2012 (invisible players, cashshop issues).  BBC Videos if requested, but there were a lot of complaints from EA customers last year.   

It wouldnt be first time they say other games cover up SWTORs....shortcomings.

Originally posted by BadOrb

You are right I think the oct/nov one skipped over swtor somewhat , it was basically we are over 500k still , don't quote me on that though.

Better that people dont quote you because what they DID say (after august 500k-1m) in october was "We dont want to discuss subs any more".

Originally posted by SBE1

As a former stock analyst, I can say with some certainty some truths about conference calls:

1) If it is going well, the company will make a big deal about it.

2) If it is not going well, they hedge and say things like "too early to tell".

Trust me, if the F2P model was doing very well, it would have been highlighted.  Furthermore, you can't really read into the fact that they mentioned it this time but not last time. The key is that they have to comment on the switch to F2P, and saying something like it's too early to tell translates into "not doing well" to a savy wall street investor. When you combine it with how bad console game sales have been lately as people switch to mobile, it's a really tough business.

Finally, it is true that with some subs and reduced staff they can make it profitable, which is good for current subs since the game isn't likely to close in the near future. However, they will never make the $$ needed to recoup their investment.

I dont get how people dont get this.

Its pretty much "It started out promising but dropping since" and holiday season is over.

Especially considered (didnt i tell they had paid content just to pump Q3 numbers? Yes i did) paid content update is in this results, and what exactly will they have to pump up Q4 numbers? More mandatory paid content updates?

Being profitable includes making $$ to recoup investment. Unless you do some "creative bookkeeping", but in the end it all comes down to: x>y ( x= total money made, y= total money spent) and everything else is just lieing to yourself and investors, but that also cant go on forever, stock is low as it is.

Originally posted by adam_nox

people pay to play bf3?

 

they proably count season pass as sub

Originally posted by Smikis

Originally posted by adam_nox

people pay to play bf3?

 

they proably count season pass as sub

I have always assumed that the numbers EA have been giving out - 2M last quarter, 2.9M this quarter etc. were the number of people who have bought the premium pass.

So $50 for the 5 content downloads if I understand things correctly released over a 12 month period. On top of which they had very high, 10M+ from memory, box sales.

Which begs the question - previously discussed of course - would SWTOR have been bettter served if it had released as a non-subscription game. Hindsight is a wonderful thing of course but a lot of forum posters, including supporters of the game, had serious concerns - pre-launch -  about the game not having enough content at launch to sustain a subscription model.  What do posters know of course - but the chairmnan of Activision (BK) expressed the same view as well - cast in a WoW contect of course - but still the same basic view.  And BK does have an inside track as to how things work.

Not to be of course - and as EA are now givinhg the core game away that revenue stream is now closed to them.

Originally posted by gervaise1

No specific mention of SWTOR in EA's results - haven't seen the transcript of the conference call which may add a little. However in the slide presentation the SWTOR graphic was shown in the subscription category and not as a F2P.

Battlefield 3 with 2.9M subs seems to be doing OK though - weren't sub based games dead ......

Oh well if only for those pesky stock options EA would have made more ....

what sub in BF3? so the premium is indeed a subscription despite EA saying at launch it was not? good thing i dont need those services to enjoy BF3.

Originally posted by gervaise1

Originally posted by Smikis

Originally posted by adam_nox

people pay to play bf3?

 

they proably count season pass as sub

I have always assumed that the numbers EA have been giving out - 2M last quarter, 2.9M this quarter etc. were the number of people who have bought the premium pass.

So $50 for the 5 content downloads if I understand things correctly released over a 12 month period. On top of which they had very high, 10M+ from memory, box sales.

Which begs the question - previously discussed of course - would SWTOR have been bettter served being released as a non-subscription game. Hind sight is a wonderful thing of course but a lot of forum posters, pre-launch, had serious concerns about the game not having enough content at launch to sustain a subscription model.  Supporters of the game as well.

Come to thinkk of it the chairman of Activision expressed the same view as well - cast in a WoW contect of course.

Not to be of course and as EA are now givinhg the core game away that revenue stream is now closed to them.

On the later half of your post,

Financially, sure.  I mean if the game was just a single player game, there would be no need for expenses, such as network, mainenance, MMO design, interconnectivity, support, and such.

 

It would just be a $50 million dollar game that generated 40 million in direct sales and twice that in DLC, like any other EA game.  It's just my costing estimation, no scientific evidence, BTW.

 

EA was shooting for WoW sales though, with Blizzard making 1 Billion $$ a year with WoW.  EA failed.

 

I'm sort of glad it didn't happen, because EA with that kind of power would be disasterous.  I have a used SWTOR CE edition box for sale, want to buy it?

 

I find it fascinating that they went from 140 servers to 20 and they had to go F2P but there are still people insisting that the game is a resounding financial success. I certainly am not going to try to argue with anyone that believes something so crazy.

The day before the game is shut down by EA, the exact same people will still be defending it as if nothing is wrong. Then when is closed they will start a petition to demand the game is brought back online and there was never a reason to shut it down.