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Star Wars: The Old Republic Forum » General Discussion » Seems like the game has peaked on XFire - Part 2

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693 posts found
  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3542

Hipster

5/07/12 5:20:38 PM#121
Originally posted by gervaise1

No; sales as at the end of April stood at 2.4 million - so that is 2.4M "subs". Have to read all the presentation stuff and compare it (carefully) to the last lot. However:

First point: on the 1st Feb EA said they had sold in excess of 2M copies. So in the Feb/Mar/April period they sold something approaching 400k.

An odd somment: As of the end of April they had 1.3M subs - OK - with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players cycling out of the subscriber base. Not sure I understand the reference to 'trial' players - they are not subs surely. Not sure how EA know what a 'casual' player is either.

Have to search through the Q&A; see how EA are counting subs. Remember they have given out lots of 30 days - so they are, presumably, still subs.

Edit: I am also ignoring the subs are not players debate; we don't know but early on players and subs will be pretty much one and the same thing. (Yes I know a drop in subs will lag behind a drop in players.)

 

END OF MARCH was 1.3m, I haven't managed to find the Q&A for Q4 yet.
  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3542

Hipster

5/07/12 5:24:15 PM#122
Originally posted by Metentso

Brace yourselves for another 100 pages of improductive discussions.

Meanwhile, here is the graph for last week. First week under 3000 for SWTOR. Wow seems to recover the deep fall but still in decline. Tera is closing up with Aion,  and GW2 is sleeping, soon will it awake.

 

So subs went from about 1.7m end of Jan = 7000ish XFire users to 1.3m end of March = 4000ish XFire users. Anyone care to tell me XFire is meaningless?
  Vax44

Novice Member

Joined: 11/24/10
Posts: 4

5/07/12 5:53:43 PM#123

from their prepared notes for conference call:

Let me provide you with an update on Star Wars:
Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last
call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April we now
have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players
cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers.
We have already launched a number of initiatives designed to grow subscriptions. The initial
responses have been positive and we are encouraged by the gaming community’s reaction.
In summary, we delivered an extraordinary launch of a solidly profitable long-term franchise,
which contributed to both our gross and operating margin improvements in fiscal 12. We expect
this title will further expand our margins in fiscal 13 as we get the full year benefit of subscription
revenue.
Let us give you two additional points of perspective as it relates to our current subscriber base
and its impact on our fiscal 13 guidance. First, the current number of active subscribers, 1.3
million, is very consistent with the original assumptions we made when we acquired BioWare in
2008. Second, while this franchise is very profitable, it only represents a mid-single digit
percent of our total profitability in fiscal 13.

 

They defined trial and casual players in the q&a as non-mmoers who were driven to try the game due to it being Star Wars.  According to them the "hardcore" mmoers are still playing.

 

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3542

Hipster

5/07/12 5:56:18 PM#124
Originally posted by Vax44

from their prepared notes for conference call:

Let me provide you with an update on Star Wars:
Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last
call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April we now
have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players
cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers.
We have already launched a number of initiatives designed to grow subscriptions. The initial
responses have been positive and we are encouraged by the gaming community’s reaction.
In summary, we delivered an extraordinary launch of a solidly profitable long-term franchise,
which contributed to both our gross and operating margin improvements in fiscal 12. We expect
this title will further expand our margins in fiscal 13 as we get the full year benefit of subscription
revenue.
Let us give you two additional points of perspective as it relates to our current subscriber base
and its impact on our fiscal 13 guidance. First, the current number of active subscribers, 1.3
million, is very consistent with the original assumptions we made when we acquired BioWare in
2008. Second, while this franchise is very profitable, it only represents a mid-single digit
percent of our total profitability in fiscal 13.

 

They defined trial and casual players in the q&a as non-mmoers who were driven to try the game due to it being Star Wars.  According to them the "hardcore" mmoers are still playing.

 

 

"Trial" = bought box and played 30 days and left, "Casual" = anyone else who left.
  Cavod

Novice Member

Joined: 11/23/10
Posts: 299

5/07/12 6:07:13 PM#125
Originally posted by RefMinor

 

So subs went from about 1.7m end of Jan = 7000ish XFire users to 1.3m end of March = 4000ish XFire users. Anyone care to tell me XFire is meaningless?

1.3/1.7 = 0.764... aka 24% decline

4000ish/7000ish = 0.571ish ... aka  43ish% decline

 

now that's some meaningfulness rit thar i tell you what

We really need separate forums for every newly launched game. There can be the anti-<MMO> one and there can be the 'what general discussion should be' one. All the lamenting can happen together where each can find solace in like minded can't-move-on-ers leaving the rest of us to actually move forward and discuss meaningful and relevant topics.

  Monorosso

Novice Member

Joined: 5/03/12
Posts: 15

5/07/12 6:10:17 PM#126
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by Metentso

Brace yourselves for another 100 pages of improductive discussions.

Meanwhile, here is the graph for last week. First week under 3000 for SWTOR. Wow seems to recover the deep fall but still in decline. Tera is closing up with Aion,  and GW2 is sleeping, soon will it awake.

 

So subs went from about 1.7m end of Jan = 7000ish XFire users to 1.3m end of March = 4000ish XFire users. Anyone care to tell me XFire is meaningless?

Doesn't even seem like you even know how to read a chart? Xfire is at about 8,400 players at the end of Jan, not 7,000 like you claim. Xfire then shows about 3,800 players for 3/31.

So while Xfire showa a drop of around 55%, the actual rate dropped less than half that (24.5%).

So people who have been saying take xfire numbers with a huge grain of salt from the beginning were right on.

 

  Crackbone

Novice Member

Joined: 8/26/08
Posts: 213

5/07/12 6:16:52 PM#127
Originally posted by Monorosso
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by Metentso

Brace yourselves for another 100 pages of improductive discussions.

Meanwhile, here is the graph for last week. First week under 3000 for SWTOR. Wow seems to recover the deep fall but still in decline. Tera is closing up with Aion,  and GW2 is sleeping, soon will it awake.

 

So subs went from about 1.7m end of Jan = 7000ish XFire users to 1.3m end of March = 4000ish XFire users. Anyone care to tell me XFire is meaningless?

Doesn't even seem like you even know how to read a chart? Xfire is at about 8,400 players at the end of Jan, not 7,000 like you claim. Xfire then shows about 3,800 players for 3/31.

So while Xfire showa a drop of around 55%, the actual rate dropped less than half that (24.5%).

So people who have been saying take xfire numbers with a huge grain of salt from the beginning were right on.

 

Eh, I think not. 

Subscribers will be higher than actual players, always.   A portion of those not playing on March 31st are more than likely those with 90-180 timecards or subscriptions, and gave up on the game.  Just like many did, myself included. 

  jacklo

Novice Member

Joined: 7/29/09
Posts: 582

5/07/12 6:20:05 PM#128
Originally posted by Monorosso
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by Metentso

Brace yourselves for another 100 pages of improductive discussions.

Meanwhile, here is the graph for last week. First week under 3000 for SWTOR. Wow seems to recover the deep fall but still in decline. Tera is closing up with Aion,  and GW2 is sleeping, soon will it awake.

 

So subs went from about 1.7m end of Jan = 7000ish XFire users to 1.3m end of March = 4000ish XFire users. Anyone care to tell me XFire is meaningless?

Doesn't even seem like you even know how to read a chart? Xfire is at about 8,400 players at the end of Jan, not 7,000 like you claim. Xfire then shows about 3,800 players for 3/31.

So while Xfire showa a drop of around 55%, the actual rate dropped less than half that (24.5%).

So people who have been saying take xfire numbers with a huge grain of salt from the beginning were right on.

 

There's something you're conveniently forgetting.

Subscribers != Players

It's plain to see that actual players logging in is way lower than reported subscriber numbers.

It takes time for those subscription to drop, 30 days, 3 months, 6 months, + any free time added.

At the end of the day, a game's popularity is measured by how many people play.

  Monorosso

Novice Member

Joined: 5/03/12
Posts: 15

5/07/12 6:20:27 PM#129
Originally posted by Crackbone
Originally posted by Monorosso
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by Metentso

Brace yourselves for another 100 pages of improductive discussions.

Meanwhile, here is the graph for last week. First week under 3000 for SWTOR. Wow seems to recover the deep fall but still in decline. Tera is closing up with Aion,  and GW2 is sleeping, soon will it awake.

 

So subs went from about 1.7m end of Jan = 7000ish XFire users to 1.3m end of March = 4000ish XFire users. Anyone care to tell me XFire is meaningless?

Doesn't even seem like you even know how to read a chart? Xfire is at about 8,400 players at the end of Jan, not 7,000 like you claim. Xfire then shows about 3,800 players for 3/31.

So while Xfire showa a drop of around 55%, the actual rate dropped less than half that (24.5%).

So people who have been saying take xfire numbers with a huge grain of salt from the beginning were right on.

 

Eh, I think not. 

Subscribers will be higher than actual players, always.   A portion of those not playing on March 31st are more than likely those with 90-180 timecards or subscriptions, and gave up on the game.  Just like many did, myself included. 

Completely baseless assumptions like this do not take away from the fact that xfire is not a good indicator of actual subs. Never has been, never will be. The huge 30% discrepency proves this.

 

It makes a lot of those who heralded xfire as a great indicator look incredibly foolish now lol

  jacklo

Novice Member

Joined: 7/29/09
Posts: 582

5/07/12 6:31:56 PM#130
Originally posted by Monorosso
Originally posted by Crackbone
Originally posted by Monorosso
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by Metentso

Brace yourselves for another 100 pages of improductive discussions.

Meanwhile, here is the graph for last week. First week under 3000 for SWTOR. Wow seems to recover the deep fall but still in decline. Tera is closing up with Aion,  and GW2 is sleeping, soon will it awake.

 

So subs went from about 1.7m end of Jan = 7000ish XFire users to 1.3m end of March = 4000ish XFire users. Anyone care to tell me XFire is meaningless?

Doesn't even seem like you even know how to read a chart? Xfire is at about 8,400 players at the end of Jan, not 7,000 like you claim. Xfire then shows about 3,800 players for 3/31.

So while Xfire showa a drop of around 55%, the actual rate dropped less than half that (24.5%).

So people who have been saying take xfire numbers with a huge grain of salt from the beginning were right on.

 

Eh, I think not. 

Subscribers will be higher than actual players, always.   A portion of those not playing on March 31st are more than likely those with 90-180 timecards or subscriptions, and gave up on the game.  Just like many did, myself included. 

Completely baseless assumptions like this do not take away from the fact that xfire is not a good indicator of actual subs. Never has been, never will be. The huge 30% discrepency proves this.

 

It makes a lot of those who heralded xfire as a great indicator look incredibly foolish now lol

BUT...

a huge portion of the 30% discrepency can easily be attributed to the amount of time between a person quitting the game and their subscription becoming inactive.

  Monorosso

Novice Member

Joined: 5/03/12
Posts: 15

5/07/12 6:35:38 PM#131
Originally posted by jacklo
Originally posted by Monorosso
Originally posted by Crackbone
Originally posted by Monorosso
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by Metentso

Brace yourselves for another 100 pages of improductive discussions.

Meanwhile, here is the graph for last week. First week under 3000 for SWTOR. Wow seems to recover the deep fall but still in decline. Tera is closing up with Aion,  and GW2 is sleeping, soon will it awake.

 

So subs went from about 1.7m end of Jan = 7000ish XFire users to 1.3m end of March = 4000ish XFire users. Anyone care to tell me XFire is meaningless?

Doesn't even seem like you even know how to read a chart? Xfire is at about 8,400 players at the end of Jan, not 7,000 like you claim. Xfire then shows about 3,800 players for 3/31.

So while Xfire showa a drop of around 55%, the actual rate dropped less than half that (24.5%).

So people who have been saying take xfire numbers with a huge grain of salt from the beginning were right on.

 

Eh, I think not. 

Subscribers will be higher than actual players, always.   A portion of those not playing on March 31st are more than likely those with 90-180 timecards or subscriptions, and gave up on the game.  Just like many did, myself included. 

Completely baseless assumptions like this do not take away from the fact that xfire is not a good indicator of actual subs. Never has been, never will be. The huge 30% discrepency proves this.

 

It makes a lot of those who heralded xfire as a great indicator look incredibly foolish now lol

BUT...

a huge portion of the 30% discrepency can easily be attributed to the amount of time between a person quitting the game and their subscription becoming inactive.

Again baseless assumptions as to why there is such a huge discrepency between xfire data and actual data does not change the fact their is a huge discrepency. Anyone who still takes these numbers for any worth after we have recieved concrete numbers that completely debunk their accuracy are truly grasping at straws.

 

  Monorosso

Novice Member

Joined: 5/03/12
Posts: 15

5/07/12 6:44:43 PM#132

If you want to use logic to try and convert xfire data into actual subs, at least take what we know without these silly assumptions. The number of xfire dropped From 8,400 (Jan 31) -> 2900 (65%). Using the actual rate of subs lost with data provided from a 8,400-> 3,800 (55% = 24% actual), means SWTOR has lost about 29% of there actual subs MAX at this date. Which would still have the game sitting at over 1.2 million subs.

 

Although then you would have to account for the free month and such, meaning thes xfire numbers are completely useless until at least this period if over. Now, If you want to add a small margin of error for your assumptions, it still speaks to the fact that using xfire data, the game still has above 1 million subs. The amount of these subs hanging in there solely becuase of the 30 days free can only be speculated at.

  zymurgeist

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/24/04
Posts: 5185

5/07/12 6:49:36 PM#133
Originally posted by Monorosso

If you want to use logic to try and convert xfire data into actual subs, at least take what we know without these silly assumptions. The number of xfire dropped From 8,400 (Jan 31) -> 2900 (65%). Using the actual rate of subs lost with data provided from a 8,400-> 3,800 (55% = 24% actual), means SWTOR has lost about 29% of there actual subs MAX at this date. Which would still have the game sitting at over 1.2 million subs.

 

Although then you would have to account for the free month and such, meaning thes xfire numbers are completely useless until at least this period if over. Now, If you want to add a small margin of error for your assumptions, it still speaks to the fact that using xfire data, the game still has above 1 million subs. The amount of these subs hanging in there solely becuase of the 30 days free can only be speculated at.

 Then factor in that not all Countries use Xfire equally and the game has gone on sale in several new countries recently.  There is just no way on Earth to figure out how many subscribers there are.

"Strong and bitter words indicate a weak cause" ~Victor Hugo

  jacklo

Novice Member

Joined: 7/29/09
Posts: 582

5/07/12 6:50:36 PM#134

Guess what?

No third party metrics will ever be able to tell you 'actual' subscriber numbers with any accuracy, simply because of the time between quitting and a subscription expiring.

I think it's safe to assume though, that once somebody stops playing, their subscription will follow some time later.

Why keep taking this argument back to subscription numbers?

I would love to have seen some "state of the game" numbers in the report such as concurrent players. Now that would be interesting.

 

So to reiterate, XFire is being used to observe a 'trend' in the population (players in game) of SWTOR.

This is NOT subscriber numbers, although the trend will ultimately determine subscriptions in the long run.

  Blackwater56

Novice Member

Joined: 4/26/12
Posts: 127

5/07/12 7:21:58 PM#135

Hmm gee, look at that

SWTOR loses 1.1 million total subscribers since launch

 

I guess Xfire isn't as useless as everyone things huh? 

  Wickedjelly

Novice Member

Joined: 4/19/09
Posts: 5064

The Dude abides

5/07/12 11:09:53 PM#136
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Then factor in that not all Countries use Xfire equally and the game has gone on sale in several new countries recently.  There is just no way on Earth to figure out how many subscribers there are.

Tell me about it. Seems BW even has troubling figuring it out.

>_>

Next please!

/pushes spacebar

1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  Blackwater56

Novice Member

Joined: 4/26/12
Posts: 127

5/08/12 12:50:28 AM#137
Originally posted by Wickedjelly
Originally posted by zymurgeist
Then factor in that not all Countries use Xfire equally and the game has gone on sale in several new countries recently.  There is just no way on Earth to figure out how many subscribers there are.

Tell me about it. Seems BW even has troubling figuring it out.

OOOO SHIT, no you didn't!

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3542

Hipster

5/08/12 1:09:40 AM#138
Originally posted by Monorosso
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by Metentso

Brace yourselves for another 100 pages of improductive discussions.

Meanwhile, here is the graph for last week. First week under 3000 for SWTOR. Wow seems to recover the deep fall but still in decline. Tera is closing up with Aion,  and GW2 is sleeping, soon will it awake.

 

So subs went from about 1.7m end of Jan = 7000ish XFire users to 1.3m end of March = 4000ish XFire users. Anyone care to tell me XFire is meaningless?

Doesn't even seem like you even know how to read a chart? Xfire is at about 8,400 players at the end of Jan, not 7,000 like you claim. Xfire then shows about 3,800 players for 3/31.

So while Xfire showa a drop of around 55%, the actual rate dropped less than half that (24.5%).

So people who have been saying take xfire numbers with a huge grain of salt from the beginning were right on.

 

 

Sorry, I should have explained, I was trying to factor in both the fact we didn't have daily figures back then and the steep decline over the first month which relates to the fact everyone played daily. It is clear that SWTOR did not lose half it's playerbase during that free month. The grain of salt is not as big as you would like.
  Rasputin

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/07/03
Posts: 618

5/08/12 7:14:53 AM#139
Originally posted by Vax44

from their prepared notes for conference call:

Let me provide you with an update on Star Wars:
Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last
call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April we now
have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players
cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers.
We have already launched a number of initiatives designed to grow subscriptions. The initial
responses have been positive and we are encouraged by the gaming community’s reaction.
In summary, we delivered an extraordinary launch of a solidly profitable long-term franchise,
which contributed to both our gross and operating margin improvements in fiscal 12. We expect
this title will further expand our margins in fiscal 13 as we get the full year benefit of subscription
revenue.
Let us give you two additional points of perspective as it relates to our current subscriber base
and its impact on our fiscal 13 guidance. First, the current number of active subscribers, 1.3
million, is very consistent with the original assumptions we made when we acquired BioWare in
2008. Second, while this franchise is very profitable, it only represents a mid-single digit
percent of our total profitability in fiscal 13.

 

They defined trial and casual players in the q&a as non-mmoers who were driven to try the game due to it being Star Wars.  According to them the "hardcore" mmoers are still playing.

 


So let me get this straight:

They talk about 1.7 million active subscribers, and this number has fallen, "due to casual and trial players cycling out of the subscriber base"?

Does that mean, that they are counting trial players as subscribers?

Does that mean, that the people, that got 30 days for free, but may already have uninstalled and never returned, also are counted? Maybe that was the reason for the 30-days-free at exactly this time: Extend all subscriptions, so they are counted in the report.

 

Not sure about the last one, but I find it quite concerning, that they seem to have been counting trial players as subscribers.

  Rasputin

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/07/03
Posts: 618

5/08/12 7:17:18 AM#140
Originally posted by Monorosso
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by Metentso

Brace yourselves for another 100 pages of improductive discussions.

Meanwhile, here is the graph for last week. First week under 3000 for SWTOR. Wow seems to recover the deep fall but still in decline. Tera is closing up with Aion,  and GW2 is sleeping, soon will it awake.

 

So subs went from about 1.7m end of Jan = 7000ish XFire users to 1.3m end of March = 4000ish XFire users. Anyone care to tell me XFire is meaningless?

Doesn't even seem like you even know how to read a chart? Xfire is at about 8,400 players at the end of Jan, not 7,000 like you claim. Xfire then shows about 3,800 players for 3/31.

So while Xfire showa a drop of around 55%, the actual rate dropped less than half that (24.5%).

So people who have been saying take xfire numbers with a huge grain of salt from the beginning were right on.

 

We will see about that. I trust X-fire more than that report.

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