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Star Wars: The Old Republic Forum » General Discussion » Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

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1805 posts found
  Vrika

Elite Member

Joined: 10/03/05
Posts: 2175

4/14/12 3:32:02 AM#1621
Originally posted by Zorgo

Yeah but if the two graphs are supposed to be showing the same thing....well they don't. The torstatus doesn't show nearly the drop that xfire graph does, so if we take xfire at face value and torstatus at face value, it shows that xfire is in fact NOT representative of the total SWToR population, and it shows that the sub decline in TOR isn't nearly as doom and gloom as it is for those who use xfire.

Torstatus population trends (before patch) show that US servers are already light more than 60% of the time. The population graph on Torstatus misses all further decline on those servers at those times because the value can't go lower.

Torstatus and XFire don't contradict each other.

EDIT: I'd like to add, that according to Torstatus, all US SWTOR servers together haven't reached even standard population this month. /EDIT

  Metentso

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 8/14/10
Posts: 1458

4/14/12 8:15:45 AM#1622

So far we know that variations on the general population (free weekends and the jebus pathc) are also variations in xFire. What we don't know is how these variations relate to each other. Is a 10% variation in xFire a 10% variation in SWTOR? We don't know.

  Crackbone

Novice Member

Joined: 8/26/08
Posts: 213

4/14/12 8:49:37 AM#1623
Originally posted by Metentso

So far we know that variations on the general population (free weekends and the jebus pathc) are also variations in xFire. What we don't know is how these variations relate to each other. Is a 10% variation in xFire a 10% variation in SWTOR? We don't know.

If any of the past MMOs are a good indicator, I'd say yes. 

The figures in X-fire will wind up mirroring the subscription reality very closely. 

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3545

Hipster

4/14/12 9:25:46 AM#1624
3836 is the latest figure
  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1478

4/14/12 9:40:28 AM#1625
Originally posted by Monorojo
snip

 On my server, our fleet increased 3X from 40~ to 120~ on the day of the patch for Republic. On Imp, the fleet went from 150~ to 280~. The servers were almost all standard and more heavy than in the past few weeks. Yet Xfire only reflects a tiny jump from the previous week.

 If that does not tell you that Xfire is absolutely no inication of the overall health and population of the game, you are completely and utterly blind. Haters will grasp onto anything though.

To add to what RefMinor pointed out - showing that there is a link - making predictions on the health of the whole game based on 1 server is flawed. That would be like going into 1 household, asking them what they watch on TV, where they shop etc. and then saying that everyone does this.

In an mmo that needs people to be properly appreciated some servers often become the 'go to' places - as long as leveling was 'not difficult'. DAoC, Warhammer, AoC etc. showed this, but it didn't really happen in EQ1. There is obviously a trade-off. Leveling is very easy in SWTOR so people can move although there is the 'is SWTOR more a single player RPG or an mmo question'. And with all the instances do you gain enough? Still I expect that people who stick around will move over time. The official forum on server merges has been going on for months now so it is an issue - although Bioware to date have simply started a new thread everytime it gets to the c. 1,000 post limit they use. 

  Zorgo

Elite Member

Joined: 12/05/05
Posts: 2266

Who did wrong? The advertiser hired to sell the game or the consumer who put faith in advertising?

4/14/12 10:03:56 AM#1626
Originally posted by Vrika
Originally posted by Zorgo

Yeah but if the two graphs are supposed to be showing the same thing....well they don't. The torstatus doesn't show nearly the drop that xfire graph does, so if we take xfire at face value and torstatus at face value, it shows that xfire is in fact NOT representative of the total SWToR population, and it shows that the sub decline in TOR isn't nearly as doom and gloom as it is for those who use xfire.

Torstatus population trends (before patch) show that US servers are already light more than 60% of the time. The population graph on Torstatus misses all further decline on those servers at those times because the value can't go lower.

Torstatus and XFire don't contradict each other.

EDIT: I'd like to add, that according to Torstatus, all US SWTOR servers together haven't reached even standard population this month. /EDIT

All mmo's are light the majority of the time. People work. Log into WoW Monday at 9 am and you will see mostly 'light' . If you log into WoW and SWToR at prime time or on weekends, you will see about the same percentage of heavy, light and standard (or medium) in both games. If you averaged out WoW between those 3 choices they would be 60% light too.....does that mean they have a population problem?

And they are still showing the same graph. There are some different tabs on torstatus.net, I suggest you look at the one for total population, the longer term graph under the main graph

- the argument is the total population graph from torstatus is what the xfire graph shows, period. And those graphs do not match. Period.

light, standard or heavy servers really have no bearing, we talking about averaging out total use.

 

  fadis

Novice Member

Joined: 12/16/09
Posts: 473

4/14/12 10:10:24 AM#1627

I think it's reasonable to assume that on patch day/right after - a higher % of people that are subbed will log in to check out the patch. 

Whether or not the patch has the effect of stopping the subscription bleed or even encouraging more people to re-sub or sub for the first time -- that will be seen in the coming days.

 

My guess is that it will slow the rate of bleed, a bit.  i can't prove that... because I'd need to know what would've otherwise happened - but I do think our xfire numbers will continue to decline. 

Guess we'll see!

  Rasputin

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/07/03
Posts: 618

4/15/12 9:11:15 AM#1628

4213 today. The latest efforts have had a significant impact. But I expect the decline to continue from this new point.

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3545

Hipster

4/15/12 9:14:20 AM#1629
Originally posted by Rasputin

4213 today. The latest efforts have had a significant impact. But I expect the decline to continue from this new point.

 

Beat me to it, yes 4213, it seems XFire numbers do mean nothing :D
  erictlewis

Advanced Member

Joined: 11/08/08
Posts: 3059

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results.

4/15/12 9:18:26 AM#1630

Here we go with the entire xfire debate yet again.  xfire numbers mean nothing.  Sur youcont the folks playing it on xfire but there are tons of folks who don't ahve xfire so those numbers don't mean anything.

 

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3545

Hipster

4/15/12 9:21:44 AM#1631
Originally posted by erictlewis

Here we go with the entire xfire debate yet again.  xfire numbers mean nothing.  Sur youcont the folks playing it on xfire but there are tons of folks who don't ahve xfire so those numbers don't mean anything.

 

 

You are just so right, if even one SWTOR player doesnt have XFire it just invalidates everything, people just must be so dumb not to see that.
  Kakkzooka

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 11/06/11
Posts: 602

4/15/12 9:24:06 AM#1632

I'm an Xfire user that doesn't own SWTOR. Perhaps I should buy a copy and then not play it. But . . . I just can't bring myself to buy a copy.

I guess I'll have to participate with my absence.

Re: SWTOR

"Remember, remember - Kakk says 'December.'"

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3545

Hipster

4/15/12 9:27:43 AM#1633
This might make some of you laugh, but I have never used XFire.
  Xthos

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/18/10
Posts: 2651

4/15/12 9:28:44 AM#1634
Originally posted by erictlewis

Here we go with the entire xfire debate yet again.  xfire numbers mean nothing.  Sur youcont the folks playing it on xfire but there are tons of folks who don't ahve xfire so those numbers don't mean anything.

 

 Well, I actually was in your corner a little, a long time ago, they do not tell you how many people are playing something, if the game company never tells you an official number....But it is good for trends, you may think its not, due to it being a small minority, but time and again, it seems it is a good trend predictor...  It gave a trend in Rift, and many other mmos...  It also appears to trend in TOR correctly, now here is the tricky part, how well does it trend with what the real numbers are?

 

If Xfire is at 50% of what it was, does that mean when the 1.7 was announced, the trend is equal to the real population, and it is now 850k.....New patch, free time, and xfire went up...As would be predicted if it was truely tied in to the trend.

 

I use to think it was bogus, as I do not use it, and no one I know uses it, but it seems to predict the population trend pretty well, and if the next game I play has people using it, and it is steeply trending down, I will not blow it off, and worry about what it means...  Which should be thought of in TOR, when you have Lucas lurking about, and his history of tinkering with things.

 

  Scorchien

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/12/06
Posts: 1119

4/15/12 9:33:18 AM#1635
Originally posted by erictlewis

Here we go with the entire xfire debate yet again.  xfire numbers mean nothing.  Sur youcont the folks playing it on xfire but there are tons of folks who don't ahve xfire so those numbers don't mean anything.

 

   Sorry to say they do mean something , we all have seen this trend before havent we...Aion, AoC, War ,FE, Vanguard etc.... the list goes on, We ALL have seen this trend with Xfire , and the endless threads of disatisfied consumers, the result is always the same......F2P....

 

   And i wanted a ToR to succed , i really enjoy the SW ip , but watching this games development i went in very skeptical, and it is exactly what many of us saw coming... Linear, Boring, Repetive gameplay lackluster gameworld, Multipalyer/storydriven game with little to no replay value or retention........

 

 

                                                      ..............game over

  Ambros123

Novice Member

Joined: 12/04/11
Posts: 891

4/15/12 9:33:41 AM#1636
Originally posted by Xthos
Originally posted by erictlewis

Here we go with the entire xfire debate yet again.  xfire numbers mean nothing.  Sur youcont the folks playing it on xfire but there are tons of folks who don't ahve xfire so those numbers don't mean anything.

 

 Well, I actually was in your corner a little, a long time ago, they do not tell you how many people are playing something, if the game company never tells you an official number....But it is good for trends, you may think its not, due to it being a small minority, but time and again, it seems it is a good trend predictor...  It gave a trend in Rift, and many other mmos...  It also appears to trend in TOR correctly, now here is the tricky part, how well does it trend with what the real numbers are?

 

If Xfire is at 50% of what it was, does that mean when the 1.7 was announced, the trend is equal to the real population, and it is now 850k.....New patch, free time, and xfire went up...As would be predicted if it was truely tied in to the trend.

 

I use to think it was bogus, as I do not use it, and no one I know uses it, but it seems to predict the population trend pretty well, and if the next game I play has people using it, and it is steeply trending down, I will not blow it off, and worry about what it means...  Which should be thought of in TOR, when you have Lucas lurking about, and his history of tinkering with things.

 

Yup, defenders of SWTOR will fight against the validicity of X-Fire but the fact remains it shows trends and the trend is people are losing intrest in SWTOR.  The dead severs supporot this. 

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3545

Hipster

4/15/12 9:39:12 AM#1637
Originally posted by Ambros123
Originally posted by Xthos
Originally posted by erictlewis

Here we go with the entire xfire debate yet again.  xfire numbers mean nothing.  Sur youcont the folks playing it on xfire but there are tons of folks who don't ahve xfire so those numbers don't mean anything.

 

 Well, I actually was in your corner a little, a long time ago, they do not tell you how many people are playing something, if the game company never tells you an official number....But it is good for trends, you may think its not, due to it being a small minority, but time and again, it seems it is a good trend predictor...  It gave a trend in Rift, and many other mmos...  It also appears to trend in TOR correctly, now here is the tricky part, how well does it trend with what the real numbers are?

 

If Xfire is at 50% of what it was, does that mean when the 1.7 was announced, the trend is equal to the real population, and it is now 850k.....New patch, free time, and xfire went up...As would be predicted if it was truely tied in to the trend.

 

I use to think it was bogus, as I do not use it, and no one I know uses it, but it seems to predict the population trend pretty well, and if the next game I play has people using it, and it is steeply trending down, I will not blow it off, and worry about what it means...  Which should be thought of in TOR, when you have Lucas lurking about, and his history of tinkering with things.

 

Yup, defenders of SWTOR will fight against the validicity of X-Fire but the fact remains it shows trends and the trend is people are losing intrest in SWTOR.  The dead severs supporot this. 

 

The majority of people defending XFire make limited claims to its relevance, those against XFire make absolute claims to its lack, that for me is quite telling.
  erictlewis

Advanced Member

Joined: 11/08/08
Posts: 3059

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results.

4/15/12 9:47:59 AM#1638

So I go to xfire and see the following

 

 
League of Legends
163055 #1 Riot Games Riot Games
 
 
 
 
 
 
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
108589 #2 Infinity Ward Activision
 
 
 
 
 
 
World of Warcraft
77846 #3 Blizzard Entertainment Blizzard Entertainment
 
 
 
 
 
 
Call of Duty 2
58109 #4 Infinity Ward Activision
 
 
 
 
 
 
Minecraft
29192 #5 Mojang Mojang
         
 
Battlefield 3
23799 #6 Digital Illusions EA Games
 
 
 
 
 
 
Star Wars: The Old Republic
23430 #7 BioWare Electronic Arts
 
 
 
 
 
 
World Of Tanks
18332 #8 Wargaming Wargaming.net
 
 
 
 
 
 
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
 
Multi Theft Auto
 
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas Multiplayer
12814 #9 Rockstar North Rockstar Games
 
 
 
 
 
 
StarCraft II
12307 #10 Blizzard Entertainment Blizzard Entertainment

 

So how is being number  so bad?  None of us ever expected to nock of blizard.

  Crackbone

Novice Member

Joined: 8/26/08
Posts: 213

4/15/12 9:50:22 AM#1639
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by Rasputin

4213 today. The latest efforts have had a significant impact. But I expect the decline to continue from this new point.

 

Beat me to it, yes 4213, it seems XFire numbers do mean nothing :D

The post 30 day freebies and 1.2 provide a lot less bounce back then I expected.  

There's definitely increased population in the game, indicated both by X-fire and my own anecdotal evidence, but I have a sneaking suspicion that it's short lived. I think the game can find a bottom(subs) but that is largely predicated by when Bioware gets Ranked/Rated Warzones out into the hands of the players. 

If we find rated warzones still AWOL until 1.3, I think that X-fire bottom of aprox 3200, goes lower, much lower, into the low 2000s. 

I don't think they were able to capture enough subscriptions(with the Jebus patch) to hold TERA, TSW, and GW2 defections at bay. 

 

  Crackbone

Novice Member

Joined: 8/26/08
Posts: 213

4/15/12 9:52:23 AM#1640
Originally posted by erictlewis

So I go to xfire and see the following

 

 
League of Legends
163055 #1 Riot Games Riot Games
 
 
 
 
 
 
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
108589 #2 Infinity Ward Activision
 
 
 
 
 
 
World of Warcraft
77846 #3 Blizzard Entertainment Blizzard Entertainment
 
 
 
 
 
 
Call of Duty 2
58109 #4 Infinity Ward Activision
 
 
 
 
 
 
Minecraft
29192 #5 Mojang Mojang
         
 
Battlefield 3
23799 #6 Digital Illusions EA Games
 
 
 
 
 
 
Star Wars: The Old Republic
23430 #7 BioWare Electronic Arts
 
 
 
 
 
 
World Of Tanks
18332 #8 Wargaming Wargaming.net
 
 
 
 
 
 
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
 
Multi Theft Auto
 
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas Multiplayer
12814 #9 Rockstar North Rockstar Games
 
 
 
 
 
 
StarCraft II
12307 #10 Blizzard Entertainment Blizzard Entertainment

 

So how is being number  so bad?  None of us ever expected to nock of blizard.

That's hours #1, not players. 

Secondly, for a project of this scope and cost, should be doing much better than it is currently.  At present, it has virtually no competition in the "new MMO" space.  When TOR does, the numbers will likely fall lower at an accelerated pace.

 

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