Originally posted by RefMinor

Originally posted by Metentso

Originally posted by RefMinor
Latest figure is 3539, the peak dropped back, looks like people only gave the trial a go on the one day. Metentso, I think the figure for the 7th was 3570 ish, it wasn't much different to the day before.

 

Thanks Ref. Seems we will see the 3000 this week.

 

 

Not sure why but I think it will stabilise out above the 3000 until the 3month subs hit in about a week and a half. But that is just a feeling rather than based on anything specific.

Ok, you have been pretty accurate in previous predictions. We'll see.

Originally posted by Vrika

Originally posted by gervaise1

Generally Easter in the US is not a holiday.

SWTOR is international game and also European players are included in those numbers.

In Finland we've had 4 days of holidays, and all larger shops have been closed for Friday, Sunday and now Monday.

Same in the UK Vrika - and I think much of Europe Vrika (I had to 'adjust' when I worked in the US.) A lot of the sales were in the US however (the figures I saw suggested over 50%) and I believe it is fair to say that SW is more  prominent in the US than in the EU. Whether this accounts for the short 'blip' or not I don't know. disappointing number given the number of free trials (50M+) in addition to the free w/e - or just the law of diminishing returns from a repeated promoton?

Originally posted by RefMinor

Originally posted by Metentso

Originally posted by RefMinor
Latest figure is 3539, the peak dropped back, looks like people only gave the trial a go on the one day. Metentso, I think the figure for the 7th was 3570 ish, it wasn't much different to the day before.

 

Thanks Ref. Seems we will see the 3000 this week.

 

 

Not sure why but I think it will stabilise out above the 3000 until the 3month subs hit in about a week and a half. But that is just a feeling rather than based on anything specific.

That's about where I think it will stabilize. There will be some slight ticks upwards when the patch comes out, but it will most likely fall back to that number.

Originally posted by ktanner3

Originally posted by RefMinor

Originally posted by Metentso

Originally posted by RefMinor
Latest figure is 3539, the peak dropped back, looks like people only gave the trial a go on the one day. Metentso, I think the figure for the 7th was 3570 ish, it wasn't much different to the day before.

 

Thanks Ref. Seems we will see the 3000 this week.

 

 

Not sure why but I think it will stabilise out above the 3000 until the 3month subs hit in about a week and a half. But that is just a feeling rather than based on anything specific.

That's about where I think it will stabilize. There will be some slight ticks upwards when the patch comes out, but it will most likely fall back to that number.

 

I think there will be a sharp drop (not sure how much) when the 3month subs run out as they are a popular purchase for MMOs (good balance of risk vs discount) then I think any further drop or rise will be gradual as people will have joined as individuals each day rather than en mass at launch. I think on the XFire scale it will be around 2500 (cannot connect that to actual sub numbers though) after the 30 days run out. This may be hidden a little by an inevitable free trial around that time if current marketing is any guide.

Call me pessimistic but judging by previous patches, 1.2 could well turn out to be the nail in the coffin rather than the saviour many are hoping for.

I just don't trust Bioware not to cock things up by introducing more bugs and exploits.

Originally posted by RefMinor 

 (snip)

I think there will be a sharp drop (not sure how much) when the 3month subs run out as they are a popular purchase for MMOs (good balance of risk vs discount) then I think any further drop or rise will be gradual as people will have joined as individuals each day rather than en mass at launch. I think on the XFire scale it will be around 2500 (cannot connect that to actual sub numbers though) after the 30 days run out. This may be hidden a little by an inevitable free trial around that time if current marketing is any guide.

Agree.

The 30 day + the "3 month" sub point is seen by many as the key point as a result of the discount on the sub etc. It will be interesting if we continue to see a drop off despite all the trials/passes.

Agree with Jacklo as well about 1.2 not, imo, offering any magic fix. Not enough new content for people not totally hooked by the SW mythos - and stuff already pushed back - whilst at the same time introducing stuff that has upset some dedicated SW fans.

Will the numbers level out?  Not sure they will. A 'solid' RPG but 'poor' mmo maybe what it comes down to. Initial retention very solid (EA spin not withstanding) but after the story driven element there isn't much. Wrong business model imo.

Originally posted by gervaise1

Originally posted by RefMinor 

 (snip)

I think there will be a sharp drop (not sure how much) when the 3month subs run out as they are a popular purchase for MMOs (good balance of risk vs discount) then I think any further drop or rise will be gradual as people will have joined as individuals each day rather than en mass at launch. I think on the XFire scale it will be around 2500 (cannot connect that to actual sub numbers though) after the 30 days run out. This may be hidden a little by an inevitable free trial around that time if current marketing is any guide.

Agree.

The 30 day + the "3 month" sub point is seen by many as the key point as a result of the discount on the sub etc. It will be interesting if we continue to see a drop off despite all the trials/passes.

Agree with Jacklo as well about 1.2 not, imo, offering any magic fix. Not enough new content for people not totally hooked by the SW mythos - and stuff already pushed back - whilst at the same time introducing stuff that has upset some dedicated SW fans.

Will the numbers level out?  Not sure they will. A 'solid' RPG but 'poor' mmo maybe what it comes down to. Initial retention very solid (EA spin not withstanding) but after the story driven element there isn't much. Wrong business model imo.

 

I actually think you will see a boost from 1.2, which cunningly I now notice is being released it seems round about the time the 3month subs fall due, some will add a month to check it out and some will resub for a month to check it out which will mitigate the 3month sub drop somewhat. I don't think 1.2 will retain too many as it I don't think it adds lastability for those who were already bored, it is good only for those who are still having fun.

Started tracking Aion.  

 

You should start a new thread for that one otherwise it will get too confusing.

3329 is the latest figure.

Originally posted by RefMinor
You should start a new thread for that one otherwise it will get too confusing.

It's just another line in the same graph, but pasting it here it's not working again :/

 

SW Kinnect number 1 game across all platforms in the UK "despite mixed reviews" - I think it offers pretty much what SWTOR offers (in some ways more, in some ways less). And you can play it for longer than 1 month before having to pay a monthly fee.

My view has always been that this will have an impact on SWTOR, whatever the reviews, because "it's Star Wars". could be wrong of course. 

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/168275/Kinect_Star_Wars_becomes_first_Kinect_exclusive_to_lead_UK_sales_charts.php

Originally posted by RefMinor
3329 is the latest figure.

That's a new low isn't it?

Originally posted by gervaise1

SW Kinnect number 1 game across all platforms in the UK "despite mixed reviews" - I think it offers pretty much what SWTOR offers (in some ways more, in some ways less). And you can play it for longer than 1 month before having to pay a monthly fee.

My view has always been that this will have an impact on SWTOR, whatever the reviews, because "it's Star Wars". could be wrong of course. 

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/168275/Kinect_Star_Wars_becomes_first_Kinect_exclusive_to_lead_UK_sales_charts.php

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_xJqkzngBI&feature=youtube_gdata_player

 

And somewhere just off camera a Wookie silently weeps.

Originally posted by gervaise1

SW Kinnect number 1 game across all platforms in the UK "despite mixed reviews" - I think it offers pretty much what SWTOR offers (in some ways more, in some ways less). And you can play it for longer than 1 month before having to pay a monthly fee.

In a lot ways less.

My view has always been that this will have an impact on SWTOR, whatever the reviews, because "it's Star Wars". could be wrong of course. 

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/168275/Kinect_Star_Wars_becomes_first_Kinect_exclusive_to_lead_UK_sales_charts.php

I don't think so. TOR plays to an entire different audience than that game does.

Originally posted by jacklo

Call me pessimistic but judging by previous patches, 1.2 could well turn out to be the nail in the coffin rather than the saviour many are hoping for.

I just don't trust Bioware not to cock things up by introducing more bugs and exploits.

    Meh.  Every game that releases new content has bugs and exploits in pretty much every patch they release.  This only becomes an issue when people WANT it to be a problem.  Everyone else rides it out and a week or two later get to see the fix.  Not a big deal.  Heck, I hated WoW, but never held this against them since it IS and industry standard.  Simple fact, no amount of testing will ever find all the problems.  Throw a few hundred thousand people into the mix though and those problems come to light pretty quick.

Originally posted by gervaise1

Originally posted by RefMinor
3329 is the latest figure.

That's a new low isn't it?

Yes it is.

Originally posted by Metentso

Originally posted by gervaise1

Originally posted by RefMinor
3329 is the latest figure.

That's a new low isn't it?

Yes it is.

1.2 should stop it going below 3000, but for how long?  Unless servers are offline and nobody is able to play - It could hit rock bottom!

Originally posted by superniceguy

Originally posted by Metentso

Originally posted by gervaise1

Originally posted by RefMinor
3329 is the latest figure.

That's a new low isn't it?

Yes it is.

1.2 should stop it going below 3000, but for how long?  Unless servers are offline and nobody is able to play - It could hit rock bottom!

Patches only retain subscribers.

Expansions bring new ones.

 

Basic rule of MMOs. Just depends if Bioware flubs this patch as well.

Originally posted by Jason2444

Originally posted by superniceguy

Originally posted by Metentso

Originally posted by gervaise1

Originally posted by RefMinor
3329 is the latest figure.

That's a new low isn't it?

Yes it is.

1.2 should stop it going below 3000, but for how long?  Unless servers are offline and nobody is able to play - It could hit rock bottom!

Patches only retain subscribers.

Expansions bring new ones.

 

Basic rule of MMOs. Just depends if Bioware flubs this patch as well.

 

I do not think that rule works quite well with SWTOR because it is more of a single player game than a MMO. There is little to do at 50, and no purpose in levelling alts except to enjoy the story on another class/faction, which you can get from many single player games, like the Mass Effect series without paying a monthly fee.