PVP:Yes | Distribution: | Retail Price:n/a | Pay Type:Free | Monthly Fee:n/a
Desktop Client | System Req:
The List: Top 10 MMOs of 2012
Jon breaks out his crystal ball and peers three years down the road. Which 10 games will dominate the market then?
This week, I dug deep into the old closet to pull out my trusty crystal ball. Gazing deep into its smoky depths, I asked a simple question: What MMOs will round out the Top 10 three years from now? Being a cantankerous old coot of a crystal ball, it told me that I needed to be more specific. Was it to base the list on subscriber numbers? Overall profitability? Random lottery? In the end we decided to look for a Top 10 list that took many factors into account, with subscribers, profitability, critical acclaim and fan support topping the list.
When I was putting this list together, there were a number of games that cropped up as possibilities that, for whatever reasons, I decided not to include in my top ten. The next Blizzard MMO, for example is left off because there’s a good chance it won’t yet have launched. It’s tough enough to define the Top 10 Games of 2009, let alone three years from now. Many quality titles didn’t make the list, but were kept firmly in mind. They include: The Secret World, The Agency, Copernicus, Lord of the Rings Online, Global Agenda and Fallen Earth.
;)
#10: Aion
In 2012, Aion will be closing in on its third birthday, so why is it that I think it’ll be rounding out the top ten? I’m going to go out on a limb right now and say that it really could be any number of games from the crop here in 2009 that could fill this spot, but in my opinion, Aion has the best chance.
Aion is a game designed to appeal to number of different player types: PvP, RvR, PvE, RP and others. Then, you’ve got the fact that NCsoft North America needs Aion to be a success on this side of the world. This first major launch since the cancellation of the company’s previous flagship title, Tabula Rasa, has a lot riding on its shoulders and NCsoft didn’t gain a reputation as one of the premiere publishers on this side of the world by letting opportunities pass them by in a pinch.
The real reason that I put Aion on the top of the heap though is probably the fact that it has the advantage of being a rare imported game that was designed with our market in mind. So often, Western games are marred by buggy launches that take at least a few patches to work out, losing at least some players in the process. Then, after some time has gone by we see news that the same game has launched in an Eastern market or two, more polished and more completed than it was for us. With Aion, the roles are reversed and lessons can be learned on players from another market. Maybe that’s just the shot in the arm this game needs to gain the kind of popularity that will see it on the Top 10 charts in 2012.
;)
#9: A Superhero Based Game (DC, Marvel, or Champions)
You know what. I like the view from up here on the fence, thank you very much. With three next generation titles from experienced, successful studios about to ratchet up the men-in-tights wars, there’s just a good chance that one of them is going to take off. Which one really has the winning formula though, remains to be seen.
First, you’ve got Champions Online from Cryptic Studios, the people that pioneered MMOs with tights and capes, making a name for themselves with what might very well be the singular most impressive character creation system in the history of the genre.
Next, you’ve got DC Universe. With the star power of classic heroes like Superman and Batman, the ability to play both good and evil characters and an interesting action-based combat system DC Universe could have some serious staying power.
Then there’s the Marvel-based game from the folks at Gazillion, which we know nothing about. By the time 2012 rolls around, Marvel Online (if it’s launched) could be the new kid on the block, presumably sleeker, faster and certainly newer option of the three.
;)
#8: World of Darkness
When CCP announced that they had merged with pen and paper mainstay White Wolf back in 2006, it was a foregone conclusion that the product of the unholy union between Vikings and Vampires would be a horror based MMORPG making use of White Wolf’s World of Darkness IP.
Since the announcement, the merged company has been tight-lipped about the upcoming project, which has left MMO watchers to speculate over everything from the design decisions surrounding the game to when it might see the light of day.
Documents found back at the beginning of the year place the game’s launch in 2010, but I’m going to go out on a limb and project a date closer to mid to late 2011. CCP had devoted a good deal of its staff to EVE Online and it’s unclear how production is progressing. So, with a late 2011 launch date, the game is perfectly situated to be among the top ten games of 2012.
Still, launch date alone doesn’t guarantee any game a spot at the top, more justification is needed. In that spirit I offer the idea that the popularity of the gothic horror genre is once again on the rise. Combine that with a rich and interesting IP that already has so many gaming fans worldwide and it’s enough to get anyone’s interest going. Add to that the thought that, being an MMO made by a company that got famous on the back of an open world sandbox MMO, World of Darkness Online is a prime candidate to please the old school sandbox crowd, and you’ve got a game not only to watch, but that will certainly be on the rise in 2012.
;)
#7: EVE Online
When I put EVE Online on my list of games with potential, I caught a lot of flack for it. How could a game that was already six years old have any potential in it? Now that I’m granting the space-based “sci-fi simulation” MMO a spot on my top ten games of 2012, I expect more of the same, but I stand by my decision.
Over its six year life span, EVE Online has been impressive in its growth, not only in subscriber numbers (it’s one of the very few MMOs to show an upward subscriber trend over time), but also in the scope of the game and what it has added over time: new tech, factional warfare, a complete and impressive graphical overhaul, wormholes, just as recent examples.
The developers of EVE have said that their original intent was, as stated above, to create a live and interactive sci-fi simulator. Ships, combat and trading were just the building blocks for a much larger concept whose next step is the long promised Walking in Stations project that will, assuming it’s been completed by 2012 (and that’s no guarantee based on how long fans have already been waiting), dramatically expand the game. By 2012, it’s even possible that the developers will have expanded into planetary exploration and / or other necessities of a full-blown sci-fi game and if they do that, they may very well have created an MMO that actually has something for everyone. Why wouldn’t it be a contender in another three years?
;)
#6: All Points Bulletin
I know that some of you out there are going to say that we’ve been giving too much attention to the upcoming game from the folks at Realtime Worlds that promises to be the, at least, spiritual MMO successor to the phenomenally popular Grand Theft Auto franchise, but I think we’ve been spot on in seeing this game’s potential.
This time though, APB has made my list not because of the possibilities that exist in an open world GTA-esque MMORPG, though those possibilities are impressive. Instead, it’s the possibilities of medium that could see this game enjoy real success into 2012. Specifically, I’m referring to the game’s potential to launch successfully not only for the PC, but also for the Xbox 360.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The first MMO that really performs at a high level on a console will ensure its success for years to come. There’s a whole new world out there kid, and if you think MMO companies aren’t salivating looking at the numbers associated with Xbox and its XBL program the you’ve been drinking the PC Kool-Aid.
The style of game is already familiar to Xbox fans who are used to jumping into GTA multiplayer and has been designed to rely on VOIP, not keyboards. Traditional MMOs require a bit too much input to be translated effectively. Action games are much more suited to that big white controller.
More The List Features:
More Columns:
More Features:
FFXIV will reign supreme!
Good write up with the knowledge we have. You know I have new faith in Ragnar working on Secret World despite it being with Funcom. I would swap APB for Secret World because I don't see APB having that much depth. I feel like it will be a really fun arcade like MMORPG for a few months, but I don't see it lasting through 2012.
I love seeing World of Darkness in there.
It is hard to say with so many rumored games stirring around like Elder Scrolls Online, Blizzard's next MMO, and the trio of games coming from Trion (Heroes of Telara, a Scifi MMo, and a MMORTS). I would probably swap in Heroes of Telara for your Superhero game category.
Overall a really good list.
Is Guild Wars ranked high only because its free and the people who play it never paid for a subscription pay game? Personally, I installed it, got bored to death, Uninstalled it. Maybe its changed, has it?
Well Guild Wars 2 supposedly has quite a few changes from the original such as a more persistant world outside of cities. Many, many people play it and there are many competitive leagues. It is one of the top non FPS PvP games. It has great Co-op and really intense combat combined with skill collection/unlocking and millions of builds. It is a very solid game. It doesn't really feel like an MMO though which they seem to be addressing in Guild Wars 2.
I agree. Guild Wars 2 is going to come in and catch people by surprise.
The only thing on the list I don't agree with is Aion...I think it'll be slightly higher up the list. If not near the top.
World of Warcraft FTW!
Did you guys hear about the new expansion for it?
The expansion is called World of Warcraft: Cataclysm
err something like that not sure.
Supposed to have some new races.. Goblin for Horde and..something else for Alliance I forgot what.
Star Trek won't be big because it's design veers too far from the appeal of the TV shows.
SWTOR won't be big because it's going to be a massively single-player game. It will be big at first, but then people will see how limited its group gameplay is. Concentratrion on story will divide players, not unite them.
The Worgen.
There is already speculation that the two new races will be neutral - you chooose your side when creating your character (or at the end of a DK-like initial quest line.). It's just speculation, though.'
New races mean little to me. A new class and some new mechanics would be interesting.
You do your name justice ;) hehe
Seriously though, I am curious what games you think Jon missed on there. Clearly, there will be a top 10 games. Should be fun to hear all the opinions.
Sounds like a realitstic and logical prediction.
You do your name justice ;) hehe
Seriously though, I am curious what games you think Jon missed on there. Clearly, there will be a top 10 games. Should be fun to hear all the opinions.
Quite possible more than one supers game will be in the top ten, and I'm hoping and praying for a survival horror MMO to emerge. That would be sweet. Something along the lines of Hellgate:London, but without the suck.
Since I'm blue-skying here, I'll add that I would really like to see an MMO using the world and characters of Miyazaki's anime films. Some clever and original designs and art, and the films are quite popular. Can't see anything but standard S&S gameplay though. Perhaps steampunk, though I think that is a very limited appeal.
Quite possible more than one supers game will be in the top ten, and I'm hoping and praying for a survival horror MMO to emerge. That would be sweet. Something along the lines of Hellgate:London, but without the suck.
I cannot agree with you more on survival horror, but the trick to a three year list is you really can only consider games we already know to exist. With the exception of Blizzard, ZeniMax and 38 Studios, there likely isn't a AAA unannounced game out there that we can honestly expect to have any chance of coming out by 2012.
That likely means no survival horror.
That said, I would love one too. I feel a "why not" coming on ;)
Well, Blizzcon starts in 10 days so we all just have to wait and see what Blizzard have in store for us... :)
Anyway, on topic with some input. I play WoW and I've become a bit fed up with the game lately (mostly due to it interfering with work and a personal life and if I can't get the best stuff in the game why play?) I can't see myself quitting. I might take breaks more often in the future but I probably will always be back when new major patches are released and especially when new expansions are released. I love the universe and the game itself and I wan't to at least experience it as much as I can. I'm sure my feelings are shared with quite a lot of people.... lots will always come back, even only for a couple of months, every expansion. Can't see this slow down in three years. So yeah, the game will probably still be the largest in 2012.
The fact that Blade and Soul isnt on the list makes the writer retarded. And they need to think of three years time. What new amazing next gen mmo's can come out in 3 years? How about Diablo 3 too?
Sorry but too close minded on what MMO's will be the top because three years anything can change and alot will. WoW might be top 10 but not top 3. Also why dont we put Maplestory in their? it has more global players then WoW currently if we are going based off numbers and not quality of the game.
Never post on here ever but had to when I read this.
*EDIT*
I think star wars will flop IMO.
FFXIV will be the game the #1 game for me anyway... though the list is pretty realistic although I think Aion might be a little higher but we'll see. I'm def excited for Guild Wars 2 and FFXIV... but since GW2 will be free montly and is suppose to have a more MMO feel ect, it could surpass WoW... but I'm not one of those people that is always looking for something to knock WoW out of it's place.
apb, star trek or starwars in 2012? hardly.. wow ,ff,aion and eve will be there in massive amount// but im not so sure for those 3
I agree those games arent persistent. Its like a fighter game or a single player game after uve beaten it like 3 times already. Gets old very fast.
Even though we have not heard anything about them. The new Blizzard MMO and the Zenimax MMO will be number 1 and 2 on that list, almost undoubtedly. They'll be the King and Queen of the MMO market in a few years.
Quite possible more than one supers game will be in the top ten, and I'm hoping and praying for a survival horror MMO to emerge. That would be sweet. Something along the lines of Hellgate:London, but without the suck.
I cannot agree with you more on survival horror, but the trick to a three year list is you really can only consider games we already know to exist. With the exception of Blizzard, ZeniMax and 38 Studios, there likely isn't a AAA unannounced game out there that we can honestly expect to have any chance of coming out by 2012.
That's three chances, then. I'm predicting that Blizzard's game will be supers, as I only see three BIG genres for MMOs - S&S, SciFI, and Supers. I doubt they would do another S&S while WoW is still popular. They said it would be a new IP, so that leaves Starcraft out, and why do SF without using SC? That leaves Supers, but it might be a crowded market by then.
Fingers crossed for 'World of Horrors'. Could be awesome.
Not a bad list, but with so many mmo projects poping up and in the shadows its hard to tell. Blizzards next MMO, Heroes of Telara, a possible Elder Scrolls MMO, and the super secret game 38 Studios is working on to name a few are all contenders as well. Will be an interesting next 5 years for MMO's .
Not only is their no blade and soul on this list or diablo 3.
What about Global Agenda? Just some food for though but the writer doesnt know anything about knew games coming out obviously.
Man no love for Heroes of Telara? Trion seems to know what they are doing. It could be a sleeper.
I think you seriously underestimate the amount of people who Sci-Fi fans wanting a good mmo (besides EVE).
Imo for starters i think Aion should be higher. Wow will ofc be up there agreed and even if it starts to die, they said they making a new mmo (blizzard) so they'll be up there either way. Guild wars didn't have enough customization hardly any armour and no way in game to sell anything to players, all had to be done on a fan website. Other than the game breaking problems (for me and am guessing others) the pvp and pve was awesome, but shouldn't be top 5.
I think you seriously underestimate the amount of people who Sci-Fi fans wanting a good mmo (besides EVE).
Well, I'm a huge SF fan. Been reading SF since I was about 10. I loved the original Star Trek and Star Wars, but those two games both look to be the wrong way of covering the IP. I don't even think Trek would make a good MMO (it would have to force grouping like no other game ever has), and Star Wars needs the draw of the original Trilogy's characters and locations to be HUGE. Star Wars isn't actually SF, it's more a mix of magic and tech.
There are some VERY good settings for SF MMOs- like Larry Niven's 'Known Universe' setting. It would be pretty cool to explore 'Ringworld' wouldn't it? Or Arther Clarke's Rama?
THQ also released the announcement of the Warhammer 40k MMO. Unfortunately not much else has been said save for that announcement. But as I recall 2012 was the projected release.
Did you even consider Lotro? The games been making gold for the past 3 years, double its life span and i would be amazed what they will create. The only reason it isn't as popular if not more than WoW is becuase WoW is the only MMO out there thats been doing major comercial campaigns and yet sadly, i have never even seen a quick add for lotro on a website.
I think a lot of people are burnt out on Lord of the Rings as an IP. So many movies, books, games, calendars, etc. It's frankly a rather small story compared to many IPs.
I'm curious why you think it veers to much. The site/forums already confirms you will comand an ship an work your way up to bigger and better ships and that you can customize and recruit new command crew. For a game without even a Beta that seems like a good match to the tv show.
The old repuplic will be number one in 2012, those who know bioware and have played their games know that they never released a bad game for instance Mass Effect,Baldur's Gate, Neverwinter Nights and not to forget The Kotor franchise
how did they know that the release date is expected to be October 2010?
I don't think Aion should be higher, at least for the NA market. I think its too much of an asian grinder to do well here, but I've been known to be wrong and this is just speculation.
Did you even read the part of the article where I brought up the fact that we HAD considered LotRO? I mean, the article specifcally says we thought about it...
WoW top game in 2012? BWahahahahahaha! Thanks for the laugh.
Star Trek wont be there. Neither will APB. Darkfall will be there. And I cant get how the fuck can you forgett DIABLO 3? :S
Its gonna be the tip one. No doubt about it.
Work your way up to a bigger ship? How often did that happen in a Trek Series?
Trek - at its core - is about a small group of specialists working together to solve problems. It wasn't always about combat, and it SURE wasn't about gathering loot. Despite William Shatner's attitude - it also wasn't the 'Captain Kirk (or Picard, or Janeway) Show'.
You got one thing right. The first good MMORPG that comes out on a console will probably be number one. It could be FFIV, it will probably be something else, something new. Maybe a FPS MMO, or a survival horror, or a SCIFI. There are probably a few console MMOs that we don't know about.
Unfortunately, the only MMO I really see topping WoW, will be Blizzards new one.
None of the previous Diablos has been an MMORPG, what sign is there that D3 will be?
Though it might be a foolish dream, I'd hope the WoT (wheel of time) mmo would be out around then, but then i guess its up with copernicus and zenimax etc not much is known so it's hard to gauge any sort of forcast. Other than that i agree with the list.
D2 was kinda an MMORPG or am I totaly wrong? Battlenet etc.
And Blizz knows the deal MMORPGS sells, so D3 will be a MMORPG. Or well it already is.
it really is interesting how ppl come up with Diablo 3 here... let me say it like this go to the top right corner of the page and click on "quick Game Jump" then look for DIablo 3 oh it does not show up? of course not because it is not a MMO you morons!
None of the previous Diablos has been an MMORPG, what sign is there that D3 will be?
Diablo 3 isnt a MMO in the sense of free world; but it still has the MMO essence but just with rooms and what not. And the fact that if you go by numbers, that game will be top 3 instaneously, seeing as you know, Diablo2 is still running strong. Shoving new graphics, new ideas to the game; is going to just make it gold.
But i still think the new FF is going to be top; not to say Blizzards new MMO wont be is just because we see what blizzard does with their games, they slowly dwindle down to care-bear status over the years with really no challenge. And most people are going to avoid it because of how much they are killing WoW in the challenge factor. Unless they prove, or can somehow promise the game to keep its challenge, then i see a LOT of people not trying it due to what blizzard has done to WoW.
Other than the people and places, in what way would a WoT game be different from a dozen other fantasy-based MMOs? Would you play a re-skinned WoW that had WoT elements?
Not sure if this was addressed in previous posts, but you made one major error in what you said. Blizzard new MMO which is yet to be announced at Blizcon will most likely be in the top 3. Hopefully, it will beat WoW as it is blizzard. They have yet to create a game that fails, other than Warcraft: Orcs and Humans imho.
I for one am looking forward to the new MMO and will likely quit WoW because of it.
I personaly do not believe most of the top 10 list games will be very well known by 2012, only game I personaly agree with might be SW:Tor but only because of it's IP.
I think and hope by that time new MMORPG in development has taken the attention of those of us craving for MMORPG's , many of the top featured games OP mentioned are just one of the many and truly hope by 2012 and new path is taken, but will say that I am curious towards what CCP/WhiteWolf are doing aswell Funcoms upcoming MMORPG, But I do hope that the action online game get's it's own place and MMORPG re-lives again. Both can be extremely fun, but when I enter a MMORPG I do not want to be limited in a combat only way.
A horror MMO would be keen, but I'm actually hoping for a genre-blending MMO from Blizzard, something like Rifts or TORG. Or maybe a fantasy/sci-fi amalgam a la Shadowrun.
Regardless of the subject matter? SF, Fantasy, Horror, Supers, steampunk, GTA style?
The original Warcraft was a pretty sweet game, BTW.
You had to build paths and stuff for your units if I remember correctly =P It sucked imo.
What about runescape? It has and will have more subs then any of the 10 games on the list in 2012 (besides wow ofcourse)
Seems like everyone ingnores the fact that runescape is #2 most subscribed game out right now
Thanks for making my day. Undoubtedly this had to be a joke post, or one from someone so deluded that it's hilarious.
Jon, while I appreciate the effort in at least trying to do stuff like this, I don't think the good outweighs the bad. You have so many stupid responses in this thread already, and some personal attacks against you, that I personally wouldn't even bother. Still, I liked the reasoning you gave for each title, even if I don't agree with some of them (STO and APB for example). I'd throw Earthrise in there too, maybe Mortal Online... but we'll have to see how those two perform. MO will attract alot of Darkfall fans, so I have higher hopes in Earthrise, which promises to be a true sandbox... on paper.
I'm not going to bash you for EVE Online. The game is a remarkably strong compeitor in the MMO market right now and has been for a solid 6 years. I think we'll be able to have an in game celebration of EVE Onlines 10 year anniversary by 2012. (how often does that happen with a game?!?)
Also I have much respect for you after seeing that you added Guild Wars 2 into that list. Your opinions from here on out hold great value to me.
Actually there is not only WoD, there is also The Secret World from Funcom and when you look at Cryptics in Development page they have pics of some sort of Treasurehunter game with not so friendly enemys that belong to the horror genre(has Atari the rights for computer games involving Call of Cthulhu?).
None of the previous Diablos has been an MMORPG, what sign is there that D3 will be?
I agree. Screenshots from the official website would suggest that it will be the same single / [not massively] multiplayer rpg that its predecessors were. I can't imagine that kind of overhead, multi-mob hack'n'slash combat working too well in an MMO.
All in all, except for maybe Startrek, I agree completely with this list... Aion or one of the supers might end up a bit higher on the list, but not too much.
Shut it u twat, S&B is not an mmo its a single player RPG and Diablo 3 is an RPG slash and hack game. They are not even MMOS u retard, or hadnt u noticed that, the list is the top 10 MMO games he thinks will be for 2012, not singple player games wiht multiplayer options.
blade and soul is an Asian martial-arts massively multiplayer online role-playing game (MMORPG) in development by Korean game developer NCsoft.
Actually there is not only WoD, there is also The Secret World from Funcom and when you look at Cryptics in Development page they have pics of some sort of Treasurehunter game with not so friendly enemys that belong to the horror genre.
Don't you actually play the monsters in WoD? Not what I'm thinking of re: survival horror. Killing vampires and werewolves? Yes.
The Secret World looks somewhat promising, but I haven't read much about it.
Wow won't be #1..... Top 3, probably, but not 1.
Firstly, because SWTOR will be a very, very heavy contender for wow in the next 2 years, and might replace it. WoW has started circling the drain this year, with subscriber growth having become stagnant (even shrinking somewhat, if i understood right), problems in China with WotLK, and the customer service management having taken a turn for the worse (yes, management - GM's aren't allowed to do anything by Blizzard, they are actually very nice people). With TOR being new and freshly managed, it has a much better chance of stealing and retaining players disgruntled, annoyed or bored with WoW.
Secondly, Blizzard is making less and less effort in making new expansions. By 2012, the level cap will be a staggering 100 or even 110. That alone will put off "casual players" looking for a new game, so Blizzard will depend on the older players on keeping the game afloat. However, the expansion content has become easier and easier instead making for a very boring experience. The devs have dug a grave for themselves on this one by tuning their game design for players who will no longer be interested in buying the game after next year.
Thirdly, and i can really keep it short, Blizzard is making a new mmo. Nuff said.
People saying Diablo 3 isnt an mmorpg... Are you retarded?
What makes D3 not a mmorpg? The graphics? lol, retarded.
Just to be clear, since it keeps coming up. Diablo 3 wasn't considered for this list. As it stands now, we don't qualify it as an MMO. We could be wrong, and maybe that will change, but as of this moment, it's not the way it sounds, nor how Blizzard positions it. I'd be first in line if they make it more MMO-like, but if it's anything like D2 in terms of online play, adding it to the list opens the door to every lobby based online game on the planet.
What makes D3 an MMORPG? Do you even know what an MMORPG is? Let's see if you can define it.
D3 is a single player rgp with an options to play online with some people just like D2
so nope not massive
MMORPG = Massively Multiplayer Online Roleplaying Game
A Chatroom(Battlenet) doesnt qualify as Massively.
I agree almost all the way with it on this but i have one objection, I think that Fallen Earth should be replaced with GW2
Personally I see SWTOR at #2 and Guildwars2 at #3, then FF XIV at 4, Aion at 5, Marvel Universe online at #6 (if it's out by then, if not then it'll be DCUO), then Cryptic's Neverwinter Nights MMO at #7, STO at 8, APB at #9, and EVE at 10. Unless Blizzard pulls some sort of NGE I can't see anyone knocking WoW out of first either.
Fantasy games will continue to be the dominate MMOs. So many space games coming out are going to divide up that market and I see TOR being much more fun than STO and capturing most of the subs with EVE still hanging in there with its devoted fan base.
I don't feel that CCP can pull off a good Horror MMO, World of Darkness, and I see it tanking pretty bad.
Finnaly thank god someone mentions guildwars 2 it's a miracle it deserves it's 2# i love guildwars 1 and will enjoy guildwars 2.
Someone please explain the logic behind putting Eve Online and Word of Warcraft on this list other than the fact of them having a love fetish for these games ? They are old, they are way past their prime and CCP and Blizzard will have already announced their new games by 2012. Infact we maybe playing those games by then. Other than this then I thought it was a pretty decent list.
In three years wow still no 1? I need a new hobby *g*
I suppose you could question EVE, but really, those who play it truly enjoy it because there's nothing else out there like it. Most people see it as "boring", but like I said, for those who play it they truly enjoy it. Nevermind that Ambriosa... err, Ambio... whatever the "Walking in Stations" expansion is called will be well out by 2012, and tons of people are waiting for that. For some, not being able to walk in stations is actually the only thing that is stopping them from playing.
As for WoW... WoW is not an MMO. WoW is a cultural icon, a symbol for MMORPGs everywhere. It's abnormal and more importantly it's not going anywhere. Even with their left leg cut out from under them (China), WoW will stilll be popular. As people leave for bigger, better things, new people will come in because WoW is a popular gateway MMO.
Blizzard's new MMO will undoubtedly take subs away from WoW, when it releases. Jon mentioned that since we don't know much about it at this point, he can't reliably predict it'll be in the top 10 games of 2012. Because it might not be out till 2013; how do you know?
If he started making baseless assumptions like that, half the site would criticize him for it.
I agree almost all the way with it on this but i have one objection, I think that Fallen Earth should be replaced with GW2
i think hes spot on if not its no1, GW has sold over 6 million copies so it wudnt surprise me GW2 will keep that no2 position.
What about WURM. In 2012 Wurm will finally come into it's own. I know I am just deluding myself . Seriously though I hope the folks at MMORPG.com Archive this whole article, forum posts included and reprint it in three years so we can see just how good that crystal ball is. I bet less than three of the games listed will actually be in the top ten. And two of those will be WoW and EVE. all of the most anticipated games lately have failed miserably. I don't think the #1 or #2 spot will be any of the big titles everyone is anticipating but something completely out of left field. I could easily see WoW holding onto the #1 spot for another three years, but I really hope not. I am not a WoW hater just very bored with it and all of the games re-using the same tired formula. The only Genre I would be interested in playing without a new formula would be a Steampunk game, or a proper use of the Shadowrun IP. As for EVE I don't think it will go away anytime soon. I keep coming back to it every few months, and it just keeps getting better.
I was thinking same thing. Hoping someone knew for sure what it is. I heard its nothing to do with any current franchise, if thats true rule out Starcraft online. Unless they have had it in development for a while it wont make 2012 anyway. Wait, 2012 is the year the world ends so who cares anyway. Anyone not familiar with the 2012 deal, Google it if ya want.
I was thinking same thing. Hoping someone knew for sure what it is. I heard its nothing to do with any current franchise, if thats true rule out Starcraft online. Unless they have had it in development for a while it wont make 2012 anyway. Wait, 2012 is the year the world ends so who cares anyway. Anyone not familiar with the 2012 deal, Google it if ya want.
he stated why he left out blizzards new mmo because no1 knows it would see launch in 2012
Aion definately deserves higher then #10, thats bottom of the barrel. World of Warcraft still #1 in 2012? I doubt it
Final Fantasy XIV will....
Maybe something new like SECRET WORLD by Funcom will shortly be in the top 3..but i am sure..FFXIV!!
I agree with most of the predictions here and they will probably become true, although in my opinion WoW wont be number 1 anymore, but will certainly be in top3 most played, and by 2012 Blizz will be probably launching their new MMORPG.
plus i think Aion will keep higher than number 10, like Jon said it appeals to a great audience and its a very polished game in 2009, let alone 2012 with 2 or 3 expansions on it.
Time will tell
I believe that though they'll start big, the weight of hype and IP-fan expectations will drag both STO and SW:TOR down fairly quickly.
My prediction is a company is going to proffer an high-end, community building, sandbox type MMO that will start small but quickly explode. Theme park style mmo's will migrate to consoles (and do very well there for the most part).
You honestly think that? You thnk that the almost 12 million wow players, plus all the other millions that play in a PC daily games like WoW, Lotro, AoC, Aion, WAR and so many others will suddenly stop and start playing Sandbox MMo's?? Lol
Very nice list Jon, I agree with your top picks. I think Aion should be a bit higher, but WoW, GW2, SWTOR should most definitely be on top. I would like to think GW2 will de-thrown WoW since it has a large, dedicated player base waiting on it's release, but you are most likely correct.
You honestly think that? You thnk that the almost 12 million wow players, plus all the other millions that play in a PC daily games like WoW, Lotro, AoC, Aion, WAR and so many others will suddenly stop and start playing Sandbox MMo's?? Lol
Did I say that? Nope I didn't. Perhaps you're responding to the wrong post.
Here is my list:
1. WoW
2. SW: ToR
3. FFXIV
4. Lotro (Mordor is waiting for us)
5. Earthrise
6. Aion
7. AoC
8. Warhammer
9. APB
10. Star Trek Online
Don't think GW2 will be released 2012... and we first have to see how it'll look like.
You do your name justice ;) hehe
Seriously though, I am curious what games you think Jon missed on there. Clearly, there will be a top 10 games. Should be fun to hear all the opinions.
One game he missed was Stargate Worlds.
I do hope by 2012 there is a game that beats WoW, it got boring a long time ago.
WoW ...number 1 in 3 years time ?
plz the game is old as the hills now...it was good and had its time but my kids have even done that and been there now
One game he missed was Stargate Worlds.
I do hope by 2012 there is a game that beats WoW, it got boring a long time ago.
Trust me, he didn't miss it. It ain't happening.
I'd bump Guild Wars 2 and World of WarCraft down a few pegs, but otherwise I agree with the list.
I agree that WoW will be a behemoth for some time to come, but I really can't see it still being #1 in 20-frickin'-12.
They'll all suck and I'll still be waiting for my SWG Pre CU mmorpg.
GW2 will be released by then.
AoC and WAR i hope not, but in 2012 i think the plug is pulled on both, or they went f2p
Umm, you guys already opened that door with Failgate: London, Huxley, and Crimecraft. Hard to close it now.
Oh, unless you call hosting 16 player matches on other players computers massively multiplayer now.
Belive me, WoW will be N1 in 2012.
Blizzard will release (maybe) the final expansion of it and, of course, everyone wants to see The End :)
None of the previous Diablos has been an MMORPG, what sign is there that D3 will be?
Thank you very much for pointing that out. I would love for D3 to be an MMORPG, but I highly doubt it, plus I wouldn't want it to bleed into being too close to WoW, as much as I enjoy the game.
How do the current top 10 list for 2009 look like ?
I doubt City of Heroes is on current top 10 list, so I doubt any super hero games will be on the 2012 list. They almost look the same to me.
I also think there will be more than 2 asian mmo on the 2012 list. I have the feeling that the asian developers finaly understands what the players of the world wants.
I still have high hopes for The Day from Reloaded Studios even though there havent been any news from them for almost a year.
The downfall of WoW:
1. Aion will be out shortly and it will deal a semi-significant blow to WoW, the Hardcore players that have been playing for years are looking for something new at this point, even if the story and lore of WoW is incredible.
2. Star Wars: The Old Republic - I think it's safe to say that this game will be out in 2010. I know that this game will rock the WoW subscription numbers, there is so much fanbase and hype it is unmatchable, though, expected in a 35(ish)-year-old saga. If this doesn't kill WoW, it will severely cripple it. In fact, it may even hurt Aion in the process, lol.
3. Guild Wars 2 - If not done already, GW2 will deal the final blow to WoW. Enough said.
Therefore, WoW will be done by 2013.
This is not to say that other games won't contribute to the downfall of the MMO god.
These are my opinion's about what I think the future of MMO's holds, no need for fanboys to flame me. But, I suppose this is the wrong forum to ask of you that. :D lol
And that is why this genre is now a dead duck.
I think the author is missing something. WoW is a behemot but it is old and by 2012 it will be very old. That being said the only one that can kill WoW is Blizzard and there has long been a rumour that Blizzard are working on a new MMORPG and my best bet is Starcraft Online.
Probably not released by 2012 but not long after and that is the MMORPG that will dethrone WoW. Sad really, but Blizzard with their solid games using existinc concepts, perfected, with little to no innovation seem to be a winning formula and Starcraft Online will be a more modern WoW in the Starcraft universe.
What about Blizzard's new MMO? The end of 2012 is still 3+ years away and I'm sure Blizzard has already been working on there new MMO for a year or two, it's very possible that their new MMO will be out by the end of 2012.
Blizzard has said it's a new IP and not one of their older IP's, which rules Starcraft out.
No that is not clear, alot of people, including myself think the game will not be out till mid to late 2011.
WoW will be #2 and Hello Kitty Online will be #1.
Link please. All I have seen Blizzard saying is that it wont be based on the Warcraft IP.
Can't believe you guys left out Copernicus by Curt Schilling's 38 Studios. With guys like RA Salvatore(one of the best fantasy writers around) and Todd Mcfarlane(great artist), along with all the other industry pros they have been hiring, its bound to be great.
Link please. All I have seen Blizzard saying is that it wont be based on the Warcraft IP.
wow.incgamers.com/blog/comments/blizzard-new-mmo-based-on-new-ip/
Link please. All I have seen Blizzard saying is that it wont be based on the Warcraft IP.
They said it won't be based on an existing ip. I don't see why someone else needs to dig up the link for you. Oh yeah Obama is president... Well i'm a republican. Find it yourself.
That's not bottom of the barrel, it's bottom of the top ten. Still a damned fine spot to be sitting.
CCP deploying a horror mmorpg...!? I'm in! I belive anything that CCP makes is purely genuis. Eve-online game mechanics seem intense, so World of Darkness has to be good! I'll be sure to watch out for this game!
That hasn't been in development very long has it? Meaning 2012 release is not likely.
Good game or not, WoW dwarfs everything else right now so it's not hard to guess it'll still be very strong in 2-3 years. Especially since just about every game released fails at launch. I also believe that the only thing to beat WoW will be Blizzards next MMO.
I agree with Eve being on the list, it definitely has plenty of untapped potential, which is why I'm very excited to see how World of Darkness turns out. Overall, the top 10 list is a pretty good prediction.
So much for a dynamic gaming genre. Especially if WoW is still on top 3 years from now.
I was kind of hoping technology and other advancements (like game design) would knock that game on its ass. I cannot see myself being a fan of the MMO genre if it hasn't changed enough in 3 years to give us something more fun than WoW.
One game he missed was Stargate Worlds.
I do hope by 2012 there is a game that beats WoW, it got boring a long time ago.
Last I heard, that game was basically dead in the water....to my great sadness. It looked so good.
Hate to be the one to say it but lotro is over-rated, i played it for almost two years due to a great kinship. If it wasn't Middle Earth I don't lotro would have near the following it does..just my opition of course.
I agree. I think WoW will see a fairly big decrease in subs in about a month (Aion release) and from then on will only get worse once more new mmos come out. WoWs a great game but I think the majority of the fan base is ready to move on to greener pastures.
I know! I'm looking forward to watching what they'll do with it. Hopefully it will be a little more engaging, since it will be a different kind of game, but I hope they keep the sandbox thing they do.
That's not the point though. WoW may still be a player, or even top slot in 3 years, but that doesn't mean the industry hasn't changed and evolved.
Think of it this way. People will always start with WoW, and evolve into something else. This means those other, "better" games will always be a smaller segment. So the only game that topples WoW, will be another starter game (and probably from Blizzard) that most of us will choose not to play anyway.
I think it also would have been helpful if Jon had put what he considers the top 10 MMOs presently along-side his predictions for 2012.
I personally don't think the list will change as much as what Jon does. History has shown that very few of the new MMOs stay in the top 10 for very long. I guess a lot depends on when you think some of the new MMOs will launch. Those that launch at the end of 2011 might still be in the top 10 by early to mid 2012. Those that launch early 2012 will probably be there as well.
Looking at AoC and WAR as examples... they quickly shot into the top 10... but they just as quickly lost a high percentage of their population. I anticipate the same from MMOs for the foreseeable future. There might be 1 or 2 exceptions... but by and large MMOs are released too early so we can probably expect more of the same in that regard.
Anyway, all that to say...
For the anal-retentive (like myself) I like to see it in a table. So, I have made a quick table of what is currently the 1-10 MMOs (going by number of subs or money generated), what Jon's picks are for 2012, and what my picks for 2012 are.
And yes, just like my picks for 2012 the order of the present MMOs is opinion. If someone can point me to concrete proof of numbers that suggest otherwise I am open to editing the order. I have included a few links that I used to base my order on.
One last note... I am only considering MMOs for present based on subscriptions and/or money generated. They also need to be listed on the Game List here at mmorpg.com. If it's not listed... it's not on the list below.
Top 10 MMOs present & 2012
#2
Anyway... we'll see how it goes. I hope I am wrong about the new up and coming MMOs, but past experiences show that there aren't very many "winners".
Some of the links that I've found from which I based my current Top 10 list on:
gigaom.com/2009/02/01/top-10-money-making-mmos-2008/
www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php
www.gossipgamers.com/top-10-most-popular-mmorpgs-of-2008/
http://www.the-top-tens.com/lists/top-ten-mmorpg-games.asp
www.secondlifeupdate.com/uncategorized/top-9-online-virtual-3d-worlds/
www.associatedcontent.com/article/838971/top_10_mmorpgs.html
Here is my top ten for 2012, my list is based on personal opinion of market trends.
10. Black Prophecy
like the outer fringes of space so does this entry arrive on my list, it's nice to add in a personal dark horse and I believe this is it, why? I think this will pick up the hard core space sim fans due to its pvp centric outlook and gritty realistc looking graphics. It will give EvE players the ability to pilot thier ships and may well knock a big hole in its player base. Like jumpgate evolution it has a point of difference in the space combat - however probably be more niche due to its currently promoted pvp style.
9. Star Wars: The Old Republic
Just because its star wars and just because its bioware, people are sure to play this game. The franchise just will not die out, even if this game is borderline terrible it will be played, just not as high up the list as some might think. Current gameplay dev trailers make it look like like a battlefield heroes with light sabres so it might not be as well received as we all expect.
8. Jumpgate Evolution
Space Opera MMO - not since Earth and Beyond have we had a true space MMO that requires you to pilot your ship - EvE is very successful as sandbox but emulates space combat using a standard MMO based lock on and click buttons type system. Games in 2012 more so than ever will need a point of difference. NetDevil is the grandfather of space MMO's with the original jumpgate and should not be underrated.
7. Fallen Earth (or other sandbox)
It seems the market likes to have a sandbox game there for the more hardcore player, Fallen Earth has the mechanics of point and shoot of the 'FPS' style game play and requires a bit more skill than auto-attack akin to all other MMO's.
6. Guild Wars 2
With NCSoft charging ahead in the MMO market with Aion I'm sure we will see GW2 by 2012
5. Final Fantasy XIV
Not a personal favourite, however the share amount of fans this franchise has will surely make it a success unless something goes horribly wrong.
4. World Of Warcraft
Will certainly be still around but like everquest before it the 4-5 year honeymoon period will be well over and consumers will move on to a more sophisticated classier product - the only saviour maybe it's ability to run on the console market as it is a very low end requirement game, if it did get ported that would be a definite sign of the end
3. Runes Of Magic
ROM is basically is WoW with a dual class system, the fact that it's free, has not been out a year and has over two million players all ready.
2. Aion
This game has big mass market appeal and has been very successful in the asian markets, I have no doubt this will be a major player in the NA market and will top World of Warcraft if WoW continues its current trends and does not upgrade itself.
1. Diablo 3
Blizzard will be king yet again, while the Diablo series is not considered an MMORPG by most, I however do - simply put lots of players online match making and role playing - it may not have the persistent world mechanics of others but hey look at guild wars and diablo 2 before it whether you have a lobby system or a pretty township with a horse or two, still just only a glorified interface for like minded players to get together. Mass market appeal, more than likely cross platformed onto the console market (Xbox 720? PS5?)
I'll check back in 3 years ;-)
A good list all in all. I agree with most of it. The people that don't think SW:ToR or STO will be big are delusional at best. Those 2 games will succeed on their IPs and publisher's names alone. Kotor was a huge success and had absolutely no direct ties to the movies so that excuse doesn't really hold water. STO will have massive amounts of content, some even procedurally generated so it will be massive with no chance of running out of things to do. Add to that the episodic mission content and you have a mini Star Trek episode of sorts waiting for you every time you log in. Also what the Author of this article seemed to miss is that STO will be released on both the PC and Xbox 360. It may just be that run away console MMO hit that he's expecting.
SW:ToR and STO will both be major successes regardless of what a few nay-sayers here may think. Whether either one will be #1 remains to be seen and is a long shot at best but neither game will be a failure.
Bren
What's sad is there just seems to be WoW, and then everything else just piddles along. EVE seems to be the exception.
We know there are tons and tons of people looking to get into a new great MMO, because of the initial success of AoC and WAR. Here's hoping TOR doesn't suck. I'm also looking forward to World of Darkness.
Nice Job. I think this was a well thought out list.
However. I think that Aion will be higher probably around #4. Considering it is already very popular in Asia/Korea and coming to NA soon.
If you compare the upcoming Aion NA launch to what we have been used to in the past two years from games like WAR and AOC, it should be a much more polished launch and retain more subsribers that quit a game quickly due to bugs and glitches.
Everything else on the list seems spot on. I can't really argue with WoW being number 1 although I would like to see a new champion.
The main contender if WoW does not take the top spot would be SWTOR or Final Fantasy. Both I have been watching very closely and trust the companies working on them.
(my two cents)
I definitely see WoW as still reigning supreme for another few years. Even if they drop the number of players and subscriptions, its still gonna take something pretty special to knock it off the top.
I would assume at this point, SWTOR will be number 2 because of the hype, and I highly doubt they'll make a massively single player mmo, just doesn't make sense. Too much money is going into development. That, however, is also a double edged sword. If TOR fails to deliver, it'll be lambasted even more than Conan. Bioware, do yourself a favor and make the game right and release when ready, not when shareholders say you need to.
Guild Wars, never played, thus can't really comment.
What I'd love to see is some form of Shadowrun/Fallout MMO. A kind of 50-100 years down the road using Earth as the location and as thus you can use London, Rome, Paris, New York and Washington DC as backdrops and not only make the cities, but do some reinvention of them, combine that with magic and tech (meaning armor, weapons, rides, etc..) and I think that would have an insanely high potential market.
Imagine a guild raid on the White House or Buckingham Palace or the Vatican. A mission to steal Michaelangelo's David, or to find out who stole it, etc... That kind of world would be cool, recognizable and fun.
Star Trek on TV was popular I believe for two reasons.
1 - novel situations with a strong moral basis for the characters to contend with, not unlike Twilight Zone, though
usually not as sharply focused.
2 - something Twilight Zone did not have, namely, persistent main characters who had sufficiently interesting interactions with each other that sometimes they could carry a weak plot.
The setting to me was secondary, or less.
It seems to me that an MMO will have to focus mostly on setting --- I don't know how one would try to tackle the two points mentioned above. Compare Lotro. The heart of the Lotro genre is a battle against obstacles, not solving novel situations or character interaction. So Lotro, I think, was more doable.
My summary: STO might be a good game. But it won't be because it follows the TV program, because the things the game can do will reflect the less interesting parts of the TV show.
I think Aion will personally blow mmo's off the market. Its going to be better than WoW itself, Lets be realistic here, Anything can cahnge in the next 3 years But as for now since Aion is getting ready for release, I think it will beat all the others... For now.
I couldn't disagree with you more, but I'm speculating and your speculating. We will see in 6 months.
All Points Bulletin?
No.
I hate to say it, but WoW will still reign even in 2012 and I am not HUGE fan of the game. It was fun for me back in 2004 thru 2006. The expansions in my opinion were not bad, but not good as well to keep me playing.
It has been said in the past, only Blizzard can destroy WoW's numbers by releasing another MMORPG under their belt.
For all we know, Blizzard at this point in time will still be #1 even in 2 years, because advertisement is immense and game recongnition when it comes to gamestyle and graphics are just being manipulated, even in the newer mmorpgs that are out there now.
I've played in the NA beta. I have to say No to this as well. It will do okay, but it introduces NOTHING new to mmos. The only thing it has going for it are the graphics.
Arf - wrote long article that got deleted !! so I put it in short way
1. WOW is already at its limit in hardware and will not "grow". The growth will probably be based on Vanilla WOW servers beeing opened.
2. Free to play games. They are getting bigger and better. With quality they can actually offer more than WOW atm - and they have better hardware to grow with new ideas.
3. Subed games might be changed into Free to play. DDO is doing it - more might follow. It can flip the world on its head very fast.
4. What would the list have looked like if it was done in 2008 about games beeing top in 2011 ? Why do I ask this ? Because 2008 brought out two "big" names (WAR and AOC) that bellyflopped big time. Dont tell me those two games would have not been on the 2011 list. So maybe 1 or 2 of the games mentioned as the "next big thing" maybe will not exactly be that ?
A horror MMO would be keen, but I'm actually hoping for a genre-blending MMO from Blizzard, something like Rifts or TORG. Or maybe a fantasy/sci-fi amalgam a la Shadowrun.
Ya, blizzard could do a new ip with a fanatasy/scfi blend with orcs and elves in futuristc space suits and call it warhammer 40k. Then right before they get sued for some unknown reason they can change the names of the characters and slap a new label on it sell it as their own. Then years will past and everyone can awww in the glory of the creative genius that is blizzard.
Blizzard would do better if they stuck with one of their popular IP's. Its one of the main reasons WoW did so great.
I think this writeup is pretty accurate overall, with the exception of GW2, as, at this point, we have only a modicum of information about it, and I'm starting to doubt that the game will even be released by 2012 considering how slow its development progress has been (unless NCSoft is just remaining tight-lipped and plans to release a deluge of information all at once when the game nears its beta state).
In addition, it's difficult to include a subscription-free game for comparison purposes, such as GW or GW2, in a list which is solely comprised of games with subscription-based or subscription/microransaction hybrid-based payment models. (I say "hybrid" models since we don't know for certain what payment models some of these unreleased MMOs will utilize, with the exception of GW2.)
Really?~ WoW still around in 2012? I wouldn't doubt if you're right on that. Hopefully though it won't be number 1. I do think you're right on what games are going to be around in 2012. It's a nice list of games that will be fun to play.
I get the impression - but I really don't know for sure - that they're generally just keeping quiet until Aion has time to settle in. I suspect we'll hear more this fall and next year. Guild Wars wasn't exactly the most hyped game pre-release either. They tend to take a quieter approach.
I dont think GW2 should be on the list because it has no monthly fee. This alone gives it a huge advantage over the rest because you are not counting subscriptions but just sales of boxes. What would WoW's actual number be if it was just to count all the boxes and expacs sold? 15mil? I am sure about 5 million people have come and gone from Wow that are no longer counted.
Also a real hindrence for some people is paying a monthly fee for a game. To many people they just wont do it out of principle and would prefer to play a free MMO or fps etc so this is again a hindrence on this list.
As for the list I would say Aion should be in the top 5 as well Blizzard is making some secret MMO game as well. If that releases before 2012 you can add that to the top 3.
*Shrugs*
It's an interesting list with some nice points but by and large you could get just as accurate a list by putting the names on a dart board and throwing at them. :)
Honestly who knows where this will all go, though I wll agree that most likely WoW will still be up in the top ten for sheer momentum's sake. MMO's that are even half-way successful have a nice tail on them. :)
Though I must admit it is nice to see CCP up there with World of Darkness AND Eve Online. I loved Eve and it's is only one of two MMO's I've left and come back to months/years later. Eve is still a great skill system that I have yet to see anyone else ever try to copy. The ability to focus on what you WANT to do, instead of grinding is HUGE.
That's not the point though. WoW may still be a player, or even top slot in 3 years, but that doesn't mean the industry hasn't changed and evolved.
Think of it this way. People will always start with WoW, and evolve into something else. This means those other, "better" games will always be a smaller segment. So the only game that topples WoW, will be another starter game (and probably from Blizzard) that most of us will choose not to play anyway.
I hope you're right. But so far all I've seen is everyone trying to copy WoW. No one really seems interested in developing the more "mature" games.
By "mature" I mean with more depth, complexity, and possibilities for your character than WoW. I also mean other things too, like something that will challenge the newer technology in machines by then.
So is a MMO game defined by the money that is payed for in sub or maybe its.... a game ?
Is "big" counted in subs when it comes to MMOs ?
How freaking stupid can ppl get ?
Define a MMO and .... there - work from that list.... If you define MMOs based on the fact that it has to be a subed for game.... Then really you should not consider yourself as "gamer".
Excellent article, surprisingly impartial and more thought out than I assumed based on the title.
What is this I don't even.
Overall not a bad list a few games im not familiar with. have to disagree with the coments that star trek and star wars won't be big i think they will be huge. Also have to take Aion of the list dont really see the game lasting more that a couple years if that , once the Hype dies down it won't be very big.
I thought it was registered users. Like all F2P games, the number of actual subscribers is substantially less than the number of registered users.
The guy who wrote this list must be on crack or something.
I agree with your pick of Blizzard being #1 but I have a feeling it may be Starcraft Online not World of Warcraft. They may hold off for another year but I just have a feeling we will see it towards the end of 2012 and it will easily be #1 whenever it releases.
I think WoW is just going to be too old, and with too many barriers to entry by 2012 to remain number 1. It's already moved into it's cash-cow phase and will probably be declining in a year. That said, a declining WoW may be number 1, but the Bioware game has everything going for it that WoW did, and then some. It's going to be 6 years newer, and EA has got the budget to hire KISS members to make their TV spots for it.
It was probably naieve to leave Copernicus from the list.
No D2 was NOT an MMORPG. D3 will NOT be an MMORPG or they would have already marketed it as such. So no, Diablo 3 has no business being on this list.
Well overall I agree with the list. I don't think WoW will be #1 by then. I think the rest of the player base will start to see just how stale the gameplay is by then. Or at least I have faith in the player base to see through the gameplay by then at least. I do think if Blizzards new MMO releases by then that IT will be number 1 though.
And I wouldn't rank GW2 up that high either. Too hard to gauge the actual player base in that game. A lot of people were like me with the first Guild Wars...Bought it, played it a little bit, got bored and uninstalled.
OK, the statement made below is totally not correct. Tabula Rasa ? NCSofts FlagShip Title ?
If Anything id say Lineage 2 is NCSofts flagship title. & its still going strong.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This first major launch since the cancellation of the company’s previous flagship title, Tabula Rasa
Jon's list is good but I disagree with it slightly.The Top 4 games will be exactly as Jon says, I think. BUT...
1: There aren't enough Sci-Fi fans to put 3 outer space MMORPG's in the top 10 list in 2012:) * Eve is very worthy of being in that list- it's fans rabid-ly love it LOL!
2. LoTRO. Why would it nose dive in 2102 ? It's been in the top games list since it launched and I don't see any games on that list that would pull the LoTRO fans away in droves. Plus, it's fans are as rabidly devoted as Eve's:)
Good list though! It will be in that order I bet: WoW, GW2, SWG, FF2 but I would put LoTRO at 5. I can't prove it because Turbine doesn't release their numbers but it's subs seem to remain strangely constant over the last 3 years. Lotsa new games have come out from 2007 till now and LoTRO seems immune.
It is NCSoft, all Aion will be by then is a huge bot farm. Where have you been?
Star Wars won't launch in 2010 period. They will be lucky to make 2011. Blizzard might surprise us too with their new MMO, 3 years is a long time.
Star Trek Online ABOVE AION ?
Really?
I mean, really?
Really really?
Did you accept a bribe?
No, really, did you?
Yep Really start trek has been around forever. Aion is pretty much a pebble in comparison to star trek
As much as I hate to admit it, this is a pretty spot on list. I hate seeing WoW on top though. LOL.
I get the impression - but I really don't know for sure - that they're generally just keeping quiet until Aion has time to settle in. I suspect we'll hear more this fall and next year. Guild Wars wasn't exactly the most hyped game pre-release either. They tend to take a quieter approach.
I'm definitely hoping that this is the case -- I've been severely disappointed by the lack of information about GW2, but due to previous experience, I'm remaining incredulous until an official statement has been made. (I'd rather not have to face yet another huge letdown when it comes to a release date, as I'm naturally a bit impatient, unfortunately.)
EDIT:
To some of the posters above me, I'd love to chime in and agree that Star Trek should be placed above Aion, but that would be a totally biased statement since I'm a huge fan of both Star Trek and Star Wars (yes, it IS possible to like both, contrary to popular belief), and so anything I say about the two upcoming MMOs based on those franchises will be, admittedly, unadulterated "fanboyism."
Same. I was really looking forward to SGW, but man, it's dead. Not Daniel Jackson 'dead' either.
Interesting list, Jon. The only ones of your list that I'll be trying/maintain a subscription to are World of Darkness and Star Trek Online. My EvE subscription is about to be canceled and replaced by Fallen Earth. I'm also looking forward to Copernicus as well. In the end, I could see myself having subscriptions to those 4 in 3 years (FE, WoD, Copernicus and STO) though I may not carry the STO sub if Cryptic goes the RMT route with it as they did with Champions.
"The original Guild Wars franchise made a name for itself by providing a product that was designed and marketed differently from their competition. They proved that the subscription wasn’t the only possible avenue for an MMORPG and in doing so gained a remarkable following."
If MMORPG.com wants to be taken seriously, they should not make statements like that. Every company can release a super instanced game like GW and not charge a fee.
GW is not an mmo, even Arenanet said that themselves. If GW is on list of MMO's why dont you put Diablo2 on the list as well. GW has 3d chat room, diablo2 does not.
Why dont you guys just put single player RPG's that have multiplayer capability on this site as well.
stop calling apples oranges, : )
this was no rant, flame or anything of that sort, but I've seen so many comments by MMORPG.com staff made towards GW being an mmo its sad.
I agree 2 Guild Wars has a massive following and GW2 will surprise a lot of people why?
Well let's see Anet and NCsoft have had how many years to perfect this license, hmm 5-6 years were talking about some
serious tweaking here guys, lots lots of feedback from people from all over the world.
I wouldn't be surprised if it climbs to #1....one things for sure, it's gonna make ALOT of money.
Guild Wars franchise has got it all.
Awesome PVE
Diverse PVP
Lots of Armor
Huge areas and dungeons
persistent world areas
like some posters have said many leagues...you can go into GuilD Wars any
time of day and spectate Guild vs GUild Vs Guild all DAY and it's intense, hell
you could check it out right now.
Not to mention if GW looks as good as it does how much more beautiful can
GW2 look, totally amazing I bet.
#2 for Guild Wars is about right and by then I don't think WOW can compete with it
maybe FF can, my 2 pennies..
Age of Conan should be on here it will have probably 2-3million subs then.
Really, WoW? Aion? a superhero based mmo? maybe guild Wars do some noise around here and the MMO world, same with Star Trek and Final Fantasy ( hope they dont follow the path of some "cant wait to play" games). In my opinion, its almost impossible to predict the future of MMORPGs and which one will lead this market segment
Ah a much better list, and more reasoning thrown in, I like it.
My only gripe is that Black Prophesy isn't on the list.
Otherwise I can't fault anything except APB
Total loss of credibility when I read this. This game will maybe be in the top 1,000, but not even top 50...
It will go the way of EQ2 come Aion release, and then downward as Final Fantasy comes out.And that's why it's called an opinion.
Considering...
That NPD puts it in their top 5 list...
That Jon said it was a strong contender for his list...
That quite a few of the links listed in my first post have it listed in their list...
That by 2012 both Rohan and Gondor will most likely be released...
That by 2012 The Hobbit movie (coming out in 2011) will have generated a LOT of interest in all things Tolkien...
Yeah, you are right... I probably should have put it higher than #10.
Edit:
Anyone that has $1,300 just burning a hole in their pocket can go here:
www.dfcint.com/wp/
and buy their 190 page report on The Subscription Based MMOG Market.
I decided to save my money and make an educated guess.
LotRO have a high chance of stay in the top 10 games, considering some expected features for next expansions AND the games that will be released til then to "compete" with...
Aion should not be at 10. I would at least put it in the top 5. Sure while people say it doesnt do anything new for the Genre i dont think any of the other 9 MMOs on that list will be any different, FFXIV may be an exception. Aion doesnt do anything new but it does everything right, which is more then i can say for any MMO released in the past 4 or so years.
I do agree that WoW will be number 1 still. People will keep resubbing to WoW as long as expansions keep coming, regardless how stupid those expansions are. Also dont forget about the WoW movie. Movies based on popular IPs always reboot the franchise.
We all now popular IPs alone are not enough to make a MMO succeed so ToR will be interesting to see. So far its giving a lot of reasons to buy it, but i dont see many reasons to stay subbed to the game for more then a couple of months with what we know so far. However it still is too early to tell what will happen to ToR in the long run.
However by 2012 there will be so many MMOs out that been the number 1 MMO wont mean shit to people. There will be sooo many MMOs that cater to different playstyles and have different themes, people will be playing the game that suites them more rather then the game that is most popular.
I really hope I'm playing the Warhammer 40K mmo by 2012, and I hope it's damn good.
Will that include a polished sandbox game (EVE does not count, I don't like being a ship)?
Why does everyone keep mentioning Diablo 3?
Great game? Yes.
MMO? No
To be an MMO you need a persistent world with multiple players in the same world. Not a lobby with a game that resets everytime you come in.
Will that include a polished sandbox game (EVE does not count, I don't like being a ship)?
We can only hope Mortal succeeds in recreating the feel of UO.
Well its a good list but I do take issue with a couple of things:
1. GW2 is rated silly high. GW2 will not be half the game that SWTOR and FFIX online will be.
2. Before I even say this take note I am a WoW player, but I do think the writer is seriously underestimating SWTOR and FFIX. I can tell you as a WoW player of over 4 years that the second either of these titles come out I will throw WoW and its teenage community in the garbage!
This is all just imo I could be wrong.
We can only hope Mortal succeeds in recreating the feel of UO.
I am in the Aion beta its over hyped. I am not saying its bad, but its far from a 10 at the point it is now, and its supposed to be released very soon. One word Darkfall lets remember to play the games before we call them 10's.
As much as people tote blizzards unannounce MMO, I don't think it will be AS supreme as WoW was/is/whatever. A HUGE part of the game, was the fact that SOOOOOOOO many people knew the warcraft series. How many people still play Warcraft 3/DoTa/mods of it? Sure, you could tell me other games that YOU might play that are old, but not on a scale of Warcraft 3/Starcraft.
It's a new IP. That might turn some people off. We won't know till blizzcon. I expect A ton of Starcraft/Diablo 3 info, info on the new WOW xpac, and a trailer for the new MMO.
As for the top game, I could see Guild wars or Star Wars at the top. If people stop listening to what someone who has not even read on the site about either game, who says it will have no pvp/end game/all instances, when it has been otherwise stated, they could take off.
But I am sure too many people prefer not to learn and try things out for themselves, and have someone else tell them their opinion.
For sure Lotro will be in top 5 in 2012.
In that time the game will be in it's pick, considering that the most interesting expansions are coming + all the dedicated players who are waiting for it.
And don't think that the new technology of creating games is always good thing and all the players will go and buy the new games only becouse they are created by different (new technology) way.
Cant believe theres no mention of Mortal Online... Ill eat my hat if its not trouncing at the very least, StartTrek Online.....
Some good games listed, some not. Aion, I think is going to disappear after a year or 2 off the top 10 lists due to lack of depth. LOTRO will be around and stronger then, probably very close to the Mordor expansion(who can say really)and Turbine is pretty good at growing this game right now.
Heroes of Telera is going to be THE sleeper hit, the more I look at it, the concept, the graphics, the ideas, I keep getting more and more intrigued. FFXIV will definitely rock, as will STO and STOR. I wonder if Wheel of Time will be out by 2012? Hope so. Eve and WoW shouldn't be on that list due to age. You don't see FFXI or EQ or DAOC or any other 7 year old game in the top 10 of 2009 so why would 7 year old games be in the list in 2012? Especially with Blizzard putting WoW to bed soon(not completely just slower development cycles, if that is even possible with slomo blizzard) just to work on their next mmo.
Prepare to eat your hat. Star Trek Online has numbers with fans alone that will beat out Mortal Online. On top of that, MO is getting alot of bad rep right now, and I sure as hell don't want to play it, and I play EVERY mmo at least once.
Seems like a solid list, but I would've omitted a few games in favour of a couple of others that look to do better in the future.
I doubt APB will take off. I think it'll fail like Tabula Rasa and Planetside did: get a few subs early on and slowly bleed to dead over too high expectations and too low real subscriber figures. There are plenty of Action-MMOs coming that look to do a lot better.
World of Darkness in the top 10 in 2012 seems unlikely. It probably won't be released by then, and even if it is, it'll be so new that it won't actually be a top 10 contender. And that is if the game (and setting) is appealing enough to be a top 10 contender, which is also debatable. (it might well be another EVE, which means it won't be a top 10 contender until 3-4 years after launch)
No I'd rather replace these with (imo) more solid contenders:
Jumpgate Evolution has quite a few people interested and does not look to disappoint. I seriously doubt it'd rank anywhere below APB, Champions or Aion in a top 10 MMO list of 2012. Especially considering the fact that the most common reason people do not play EVE is not the harshness of the universe or the hardcore learning curve, but the hands-off controls. Hell, a lot of fellow EVE players I've talked to would prefer a hands-on space-sim MMO. Jumpgate Evo looks to fix that. (Note: it won't replace EVE, but it'll take its fair share of subs)
Blade and Soul is the second game I'd add. It'll likely (more-so than World of Darkness anyway) be released before 2012 and judging by the gameplay footage released thus far, this action-packed fighting MMO looks like it would rank quite highly in a top 10 MMOs of 2012 list. There certainly isn't any MMO like it right now.
One game he missed was Stargate Worlds.
I do hope by 2012 there is a game that beats WoW, it got boring a long time ago.
Trust me, he didn't miss it. It ain't happening.
And how do you know this? The Scifi channel is in on it so it has a good chance of happening. I think this is the game scifi channel has been talking about thats going to happen with the show.
I know I will probably get a lot of hate from this... I truely am sorry but this is just an opinion of mine.
I don't think SWTOR is going to be near the top of the list in 2012 for the simple fact that it is a sci-fi based MMO. A lot of people like it on the boards but that is a minority as hardly anyone actually goes on forums unless they are pretty serious about MMOs and still a good number of people are more into fantasy based rpgs.
I think FFXIV will do better than SWTOR, the FFXI community will be playing it that is pretty much a definite and FFXI still has a strong 500k subs and it has been out awhile. I just see FFXIV being higher up on the list, due to its name, its fans who are already playing FFXI, and that it is a fantasy based MMO.
They said it won't be based on an existing ip. I don't see why someone else needs to dig up the link for you. Oh yeah Obama is president... Well i'm a republican. Find it yourself.
Well when you state something then it is usually good if you can back that up with facts. Otherwise anyone could say anything.
Beside he did post a link so wtf is your problem? Damn republican jerks..
Pretty solid list. Props for being ballsy enough to put WoW at #1 w/ all the rabid haters... we all know that's going to be the case, but God do with loath them for it.
I'm not really feeling APB though. Maybe if they realized that most MMO gamers are above 18 and stopped trying to go after the Teen rating on it. A crime game that isn't dark, dirty, and sleezy (ie prostitution, drug dealing, profanity, adult situations etc) just fails pretty hard in my book. Marketing a crime based MMO for the Xbox kiddies is a damned distaster waiting to happen on so many fronts. I wish Rockstar would make an MMO.
I'd probably throw Global Agenda in that spot as it stands now. Maybe Jump Gate Evolution if they pick up its complexity and content and give it some staying power.
Was this cystal ball or navel gazzing? :)
Either way, WoW will only fade oonce its graphics become totally outdated, that will come at about the four to five year point. Blizzard will be thinking of a WoW 2 realease for arround then, so don't hold your breath it may last another ten years.
It's Star Wars dude. If any franchise has a built in fan base, its Star Wars. And if any company has a built in fan base (besides Blizzard), its Bioware.
Everyone will give it a try for those two reasons alone.
I have a very strong feeling Mortal is going to be bad. I don't know why, and I don't want it to be. But I'm pretty sure its going to be.
If the various Blizzard developers comments are to be trusted, the next expansion will also introduce a graphics revamp. Unfortunately for me, that would mean that it will arrive two years too late.
I think not adding Lord of the Rings - Online (LOTRO) to that list is an insult.
The game had been doing very well and has a huge loyal subscriber base. The game will also develop all the way into and past Moria so the future looks bright.
I play on the Gilrain Europe server and there is always activity and new content is eaten up by the player base.
Look towards 2012 and beyond and you will see LOTRO clearly there!
No, AoC, DarkFall and WAR will be number 1, 2 and 3. Oh wait, flashback to four years ago when all of you ignorant ass fanboys were guessing that a game which you were anticipating would be the next best thing. The guy that wrote whis article looked at the games objectively, something that is pretty rare in the emotion-fueled forums wars. And to the loser tellingthe author he is close-minded because he didn't include a game you think should be on the list, how hypocritical. So the only way he wouldn't be close-minded would be if he agreed with you on all 10 games? lol
Personally I have to say that list is way off...
Everyone in their rite mind knows that Zelda will be at the top of the list! DOUH!
That's not the point though. WoW may still be a player, or even top slot in 3 years, but that doesn't mean the industry hasn't changed and evolved.
Think of it this way. People will always start with WoW, and evolve into something else. This means those other, "better" games will always be a smaller segment. So the only game that topples WoW, will be another starter game (and probably from Blizzard) that most of us will choose not to play anyway.
People "evolve" into something else? I mean ,seriously ...how much did you think before you wrote this post. I've been playing mmos since 2003 and the only mmo nowadays wich seems worthwhile is deffo wow.All the others are just .........
And now regarding the topic ,I think blizzards new mmo/wow Guild wars 2 and SW:TOR will be top3 in 2013. :)
What? No LOTRO?
I'm sure that LOTRO will prosper and definitely be around in the next three years. And beyond that.
More are more people are discovering virtual Middle-Earth every day and the game is looking better all the time.
Vagrant Story MMO FTW. Best RPG combat ever.
The Star Wars fanbase is a lot bigger and a lot more prominent on the PC. I'd say The Old Republic would have to be absolute tripe for it to do worse than FFXI, even mediocre Star Wars games sell millions... a MMORPG by BioWare should by right do a lot better than that. There are plenty of people who will play anything BioWare develops (myself included, even if just to try it out) and there are even more that will play anything Star Wars. I'm certain FFXI will be BIG, but not that big.
And Star Wars is fantasy / space opera; I wouldn't rush to call it science fiction. But even if you push it into that category, you might do well to remember that 2012 is not 2009. Science fiction is currently experiencing a comeback (the countless new space exploration shows airing on TV are plenty evidence of that) and might well be more 'in' than fantasy 3 years from now.
YOU FORGOT ABOUT DIABLO 3 IN THE LIST.
evri1 that played diablo 1 and 2 left it to play WoW then it released cus of better graphics(many stayed at diablo 2 till the game got bored)
Diablo 3 with better graphics more action more levels more of evrithing that the past 2 series and it will not be easy as 1 and 2 will get ALOT of players from WoW and other gamers in it!
i think blizzard will always be the Ruler of mmorpgs (i dont think so i dont like WoW) but many others do xD
Diablo 3 is not an MMO.
I don't think I could disagree more with that list. Here's one game I think will be on that list assuming Funcom launchs a full game and not a beta like they did with AOC. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EARd-fmKZ2g or google Secret World.
More and more people are upgrading their PC's. With that in mind I highly doubt WoW and games like WoW will keep even half their player base by 2012. Most people will have to upgrade their hardware just play a trial version of a next gen game by then. WoW will still be a beast but it will lose it's number #1 spot. Which I'm going to give to Starwars just for company rep and fan base.
Maybe half the games on the list are in some way WoW style games. Meaning not much blood, enemies die the same way everytime, ( they fall down lol), dated graphics, etc. The games that will round the top 10 will be more diverse. One or two will be superhero style games, a few will be SIFI style, Maybe a few adult orientated games like Secret World, World of Darkness etc. One game I have no doubt wil be on the list is Guildwars Two, just because of it's free subs.
Aion wil not be on the list for these reasons: 1. Not enough races, because of that, theres no drama or storyline based on a history to imerse the player from that particular aspect.... That equals no less then half a million non subs.
2. Not enough classes to start out with. Four to start and more to come as you l level just dose not cut it. Players like feeling special and looking different. When you think of the beast that is WoW, and add in Talent trees, there is actually around 27 classes in the game.
3. No talent or class feature system. That personally killed the game for me on the spot. Talents are more then just powers gained. They add that chess style stratagy and also make your character more unique.... Once more people hear about this, that will be another half a million subs lost.
I"m sure the game will launch just fine with lots of subs, but it will start to die out within 6 months like most MMO"s do these days.
Thank you for not putting LOTRO in the top 10 list. The folks over at Tubrine have been rigging votes all over the place and lying through their teeth to get iheir product ranked as the best.
Tubrine has been claiming they are growing. New accounts only as they are loosing most of the original folks who they started out with.
Expect WoW to start getting another graphics revamp as soon as their new MMO engine is complete. Look at the Starcraft 2 and Diablo 3 videos to see the sorts of things it will be able to do. The style will still be pure WoW though. As much as I dislike that game I expect it's got at least five more years on top. Also expect more focus on broadening the game instead of adding more levels/zones. There's indications a different crew is working on it and once they get their feet they'll want to do new things not just change old ones. I don't expect Aion to do as well as many expect because it's just the same stuff in a different wrapper. I'd put it at iffy as a number 10. The rest are a mixed bag and most could either move up or down a couple of spots. I don't see anyone commiting enough resources to a sandbox to make much of an impression. They're extraordinarily expensive games to build right. Only EVE seems to have a sandbox business model that works. I think there's an opening for another simple no frills MMO to come in and steal some thunder. Single player games with a lot of replayability have survived well in the PC market even though they were not the latest and greatest. Hell people still play diablo and starcraft even though the more advanced RPGs and RTS games have disappeared off the shelves within months of release. GW falls into that category really. The complexity isn't in the game play it's in having so many character options.
It seems so few care or think of:
WARHAMMER 40,000 MMO
It's surprising Jon didn't even mention it. It has the potential to be a real AAA success.
Mind you, of course, that Mythic made such a crap out of the Warhammer Fantasy IP and that injected further delusion in MMO/Games Workshop followers but by 2012 WH40K should be out.
Your opinions ? Jon or any MMORPG.com staff around with an idea on the matter ?
Warhammer 40k
Copernicus
Work your way up to a bigger ship? How often did that happen in a Trek Series?
Trek - at its core - is about a small group of specialists working together to solve problems. It wasn't always about combat, and it SURE wasn't about gathering loot. Despite William Shatner's attitude - it also wasn't the 'Captain Kirk (or Picard, or Janeway) Show'.
The concept is fine as it goes and this could be a big hit, the reality is that you will be managing and playing a crew that you develop. Some thinking needs to be done regards development of this and how it in reality fits the MMO genre.
I see this as going two ways on is faction based with 'your crew' living the dream and working for the highest bidder or it staying true to Star Fleet and being very linear and the equivalent of a single player. The latter would be preferable where travel discover and cudos are earned difficult to pull off and provide longevity. Tech and genetic development needs to play a big part here as part of the capability of your crew else the game will not hold interest unless people are happoy with a sight seeing tour of representative worlds for old times sake(sadly that will not last).
I guess they could also add a murder mystery element , which again would equate to event based instancing on ship.
Love the IP though lets hope they get a good balance.
I am no foaming-at-the-mouth WoW hater, but what could [b]possibly[/b] be interesting about that game anymore? couple of more expansions with maybe a couple of new races and a class or two? and more of the same balanced mess that it is atm?
Same goes for that Star Wars MMO. Geeks everywhere might be rejoicing just because it's a "Star wars mmo!!!! omg!!" but that game isn't going to be much different than the ones out right now.
Oh well.
I hope Blizzard doesn't continue World of Warcraft, they could just make something else, maybe continue with Warcraft 4 like they said they would when the teams finished their current projects. That wow is just terribly boring, I played when it launched in 2004 for a bit, quit rather fast.
I mean really, they've just been milking that dead cow for 6 years. Why don't those necromancers at Blizzard move onto something else ?
Personally I can't wait for Aion this year and later APB. I'm hoping they will revive my interest for mmos.
Recent MMOs have been developed with nothing more in mind than making a fast buck. I see a simple back to basics MMO creeping into the top 10, where reduced world size and community matter rather than a win in 10 minutes guild scenario arrises.
Good IPs still exist to be developed but in reality these just equate to a quick nostalga fix. MMOs being used as representative Arena games are just not viable , MMO game mechanics that promote smaller group sizes is what I see as the way forward.
Trust me, he didn't miss it. It ain't happening.
And how do you know this? The Scifi channel is in on it so it has a good chance of happening. I think this is the game scifi channel has been talking about thats going to happen with the show.
How do I know this? Why don't you try keeping up with current events in the Stagate Worlds section, k? And there is no "Scifi" channel anymore. It's SyFy.
I'm not MMORPG.com staff but I was Games Workshop staff at one point in time and speaking from that point of reference and in light of the current trend in MMO design I can say without a doubt that I don't think the "theme-park" method of making MMOs would do 40K justice and if Vigil (the company under THQ that is developing the 40K MMO) is putting together a level-based, quest hub heavy theme-park game it'll do no better than WAR. If that.
A very enjoyable and insightful read. I agree with most your list except for Aion success, which is questionable in the west, and APB mostly because I don't know much about that title.
Yes WoW will still be ranked high on the list. Despite the rantings of its detracters Blizzard got a lot of things right that appeal to a wide audience. It may not be the BEST at anything but it does very well at all things.
I'm really hopeful that ArenaNet can pull rabbit out of the hat with GW2. I love the IP, and am hoping that with more money in their pocket they can take it to the next level. I just wish we could get more information, anything at all.
Umm... you do realize that WoW's release date was November 23, 2004... right?
So, that "four to five year point" is already well past it's mid-way point. This coming November (just 3 months away) will mark the 5 year point for WoW.
Just an FYI.
Sadly, I share your own fears. It's the same reason I think SWTOR will be "another of the same" and I'm skeptic about STO too.
It'd be a shame, however. WARHAMMER 40K would have all the ingredients (in gameplay, in background/lore and in visuals) to be a real blast.
After years of delusions, buggy games and boring grinds for "WTFOMG" armor sets, I decided finally to overcome my doubts and tried EVE. I've been playing at it for almost a year by now and it gets more addicting and surprising every passing day. Too bad it's still the only deep/mature/well-made and supported MMO out there and it'll stay so for the immediate next years. Jon is right in putting it in his top-10 2012 list.
What? no place for the Warhammer 40k MMO? I know lots of people excited about this game.
i think blizzard will release a new mmo in 2012-2013...it just seems right...they even said they are making one .
Think Jon might need a better crystal ball. It's entirely possible that in 2010 WoW may not have the top subscriber numbers worldwide, let alone by 2012.
Unless WoW does a complete graphics overhaul and changes some fundamental mechanics, I do not think it will be #1. It will be up there but not #1.
Its very difficult to overhaul the graphics of a game with that much content. Blizzard is working on a new MMO (which i think will be starcraft online) which probably wont be out until 2013.
You know. I can't even find warhammer 40k in the games list on this site. Does this guy even know it is in development? I know very little info is released on the game but it is moving along
Eeeew. Whoever came up with that name needs brain surgery.
My top 5 in NA/EU:
1: GW2
With a free to pay model, and being a recent game with a successful past, it will sell so well that it will probably be the one to dethrone wow.
2: WoW
Even tho wow it's aging, there are many people playing it right now that it will be impossible for any game to kill it, it wont be the top dog forever though, and that's why I placed it as second.
3: Swtor
Probably one of the most hyped MMOs in history due to a huge fanbase, it should do well, even if its not going to be a good classic MMORPG.
4: Aion
The long term dynamics of its gameplay and the guild content should keep it alive and kicking for a bunch of years.
5: FFXIV
Huge franchise and a good company behind it, even if the franchise has been going down after the milestone of FFVII.
Nice logic! Blizzard should stop milking a dead cow which generates around $100million per month because you played for a couple of months almost 5 years ago and found it boring. I don't understand your issue, if you don't like the game then by all means don't play it, however don't gripe at Blizzard for running a successful business. All the while Blizzard have a large subscriber base, like it or not, they are unlikely to drastically depart from their current formula.
Whilst on the subject, basing your opinions on a brief period of playing five years ago is also a weak argument for Blizzard canning the most successful MMORPG in history. Believe it or not they have actually spent the last five years developing the game which means now it is substantially different to what you may have played 5 years ago. Had you played WoW recently or posted this five years ago you could have made an informed opinion but as it stands your opinion is basically worthless.
You might also be interested to know Aion has a significant amount of game play elements in common with WoW, so you are likely to find that boring as well. Perhaps you should contact NCSoft now before they accidentally release a dead cow which ends up generating millions of dollars.
Please feel free to replace every post in this thread with this one above.
Oh, and good list, Jon. One serious question I have for anyone saying WoW will not be #1 - are you counting on WoW losing subs to push it back, or the market gaining that many players who will go to one other game? As boring as WoW is to me personally, and evidently many others, we still can't deny its success. Not even counting China, 5-6 million subs is a hefty amount to overcome. And keep in mind, before WoW the big one was L2 with around 2.5 million, mostly Asian players.
Thanks for the article. I don't agree with some of your predictions I'm afraid.
WoW will surely be an MMORPG that is still being played in 2012. But number one? I sincerely doubt that. I played the game for 3 years. By some people's standards thats a long time. Theres nothing that could bring me back to that game now, beyond a complete graphical overhaul and new mechanics in the game that give progression beyond new equipment and levels. Even with that, I'm bored of the story that is a tongue-in-cheek amalgamation of the most famous myths, legends and stories. I prefer a story that is a little more serious and thoughtful. Theres large numbers of people who feel the same as me, it is apparent. All the MMOs that released last year got huge initial sales, but not many subscriptions. Many realised that those games aren't that different from WoW, and that WoW still does it best overall. I thought some of last year's releases did have some improvements, for example WAR's tome of knowledge, AoC's graphics and LOTRO's story (in fact all three had better stories than WoW, not surprisingly). Some of those people went back to WoW, while others await the next MMO that can realise their dream of what an MMO should be, or what the progression from WoW should be. I believe this sentiment will only grow in the next year or two.
My prediction of the top MMO in 2012? It has to be The Old Republic. For me they have a lot of the right ingredients. For example, bringing the game world to life with full voiceover, not taking away any of the features that have traditionally made the genre great, adding a few innovations and learning from what worked for their peers. A world like Star Wars which has very wide appeal and recognition, a developer like BioWare with their fan following from KotOR (similair to Blizzard's single player fan following pre-WoW) - amongst other games, and the huge financial clout of Electronic Arts.
In my eyes these things add up to a greater force than what Blizzard will have in that specific year. In 2015 or whatever, when Blizzard's next MMORPG is released, things may or may not be different.
i wonder will there be an mmo in 2012 that is based soley on microtransactions, you buy level one, but level 2 etc.
thats the future i foreseen, and anyone playing wow in 2012 is just a braindead guinea pig.
Then why is GW2 on the list? Is it going to be handled differently than GW1? If not then the only difference between D3 and GW2 will be a chat room vs a graphic chat room..
Anyone else notice how CCP is staying out of the Fantasy MMO Genre? That is smart. They already have the Sci Fi genre all to themselves thank to the failure of Tabula Rasa and now with a Horror MMO in the works it looks like they will have that genre all to themselves.. Although I dont think the game will do that well.
Aion.. Move over WAR and AOC the next big failure is on the way!
I think Global Agenda should be on this list.
Then why is GW2 on the list? Is it going to be handled differently than GW1? If not then the only difference between D3 and GW2 will be a chat room vs a graphic chat room..
Anyone else notice how CCP is staying out of the Fantasy MMO Genre? That is smart. They already have the Sci Fi genre all to themselves thank to the failure of Tabula Rasa and now with a Horror MMO in the works it looks like they will have that genre all to themselves.. Although I dont think the game will do that well.
Aion.. Move over WAR and AOC the next big failure is on the way!
GW2 is on the list because it is going to be a MMORPG. GW2 isn't GW.
I hate to burst your bubble, but GW2 is set to be nothing like Guild Wars at all. And that includes a persistent world, just like most major MMORPGs. So you will run into random people outside outposts and cities and PvP zones. In fact, Guild Wars promises vast open PvP warzones, potentially unlimited level counts and more.
You'd do well to read up on one of the GW2 previews out there (here's an old one I wrote, it's still fully up-to-date given the 0.0 new info since then) to see exactly what's been announced thus far. It's not much, but what's been revealed is stunning... and shows exactly why Guild Wars 2 fully deserves to be ranked 2nd, or potentially even 1st, in this Top 10 list.
As for Aion and failure. I don't think so. Aside from the fact that it can't fail worldwide (does too well in Asia with what... 3.5 million subs now?), it also looks like the Western beta test has been received very positively thus far. And Aion does not look set to offer a horrible follow-up to a brilliant in-beta beginner's area (AoC, I look at you... and Tortage). Nor is NCSoft proclaiming it to be the be-all end-all innovative game that will one-up everything, everytime, everywhere, when it's really just one big bag of derivative fail (hello WAR).
On the contrary, what NCSoft has done thus far for Aion looks a lot like WoW pre-release. Positive sounds can be heard all around in spite of (nearly) all the unique features being dropped (although not nearly as many as WoW). It's extremely polished, content-heavy and solid. It offers a vibrant world and is accessible for newbies, but also offers a good challenge for veterans. All in all it's WoW at launch, done better: big, solid, hyped up, nothing new whatsoever, but just plain good.
And in case you hadn't noticed: plain good is what sells nowadays.
Reason why WoW wont be top 1 2012 = blizzard would come out with their next mmo... Why didnt the writer think of this...
At first when I read this list I was kinda meh about it. Then I thought a little bit more about it and decided the final 3 are petty spot on. WoW will always remain on top I imagine, Guild Wars 2 will do reasonably well due the fact that it’s a great casual play game, it’s free after you purchase the box, its based on fantasy, has a pretty large following, and most people I know split time between GW and WoW. TOR will most likely be 3rd because of the huge following of BioWare fans, KOTOR fans, SWG fans, and fans of SW who game, and hype or word of mouth, role players heaven, and it will be casual friendly.
Withe the release of patch 3.2, which turned WoW from semi-casual to full on casual, this game has started to drop down the hill, not that it already hasn't been sliding for the past couple years anyway. Plus with blizz putting out a new completely different MMO over the next few years there will be very few players in WoW left. After Icecrown comes out in a few months by the looks of it, most of the known lore in the Warcraft universe(Up to WC3 basically) is out the window and you have to start creating more story like they did with all the books of Star Wars you see out there that happen after the ep. 6. So do i think this list is a little off??? Yes. Do i completley disagree??? eh i just think some of the games should be shifted into different positions and i also think that WoW should not be number 1 nor do i think it will STILL be the top MMO in 2012 because of the changes that are taking place in game now and the New MMO on the way(With most of Original team from WoW when it started, are on board). Most likely Blizz's New MMO will be No.1 if anything.
I also think Aion will be more popular than what most ppl think it will be. Now b4 anyone jumps on me about being an Aion fanboy trust me im not, id love to try it out, but from what i hear from ppl in beta they are really impressed and i think jsut by word of mouth the game will be a lot bigger than what this list implies, but then again you never can tell about how an MMO will work out among the players. Now on FF XIV, yeah that game will obviously be huge because a lot of ppl love the FF universe, still its just not one franchise i never enjoyed very much, i kept trying to find a FF game i liked but it is just not my style of play. But, anyway thats just my take on this list.
Because knowing Blizzard it is unlikely that they release the new game that fast. 2013 or 2014 is more likely. Wow took 6 years to make, this will take as long.
I too think Wow will be in top 2012 but I think it will be on the way down faster and faster. Computer games don't age that well and you can already feel that Kaplan is gone, Blizzard have no other guy like him anymore.
I also believe GW2 will run past Wow. GW was a low budget game that was made rather quick for a MMO. GW2 will be a full blown MMO with an open world and amazing graphics. That together with no monthly fees make it very hard to beat, the original GW never got close to Wow but it got a lot closer than anything else.
The only thing against GW2 is that it might be too hard fo many younger Wow fans.
The thing on the list I think will fail is star trek online. I think Cryptic have bigger chanses pulling Neverwinter nights online off. Both IPs have many fans but it is a lot easier to make a forgotten realm based game then a Star trek one. Of course NWNO might not be ready to 2012.
I agree it is possible for WOW to remain number one because for the 9-10 million new mmo gamers,it was their first game,and first games always have a lasting impression.WOW is in no way a top game on any platform,you can break down any of it's components and its a very average game,but like i said for most of its 12-13 mil its their first game.
IMO 2012 is far to distant to make any predictions,way too much can happen in that time.If a game comes long that offers competition and rewards ,i could easily see all the young kids leaving WOW for a NEW game to hold bragging competitions.Since ALL the developers have stated they are looking at microtransactions,i am guessing the top game in 2012 could very well be a F2P game,who knows maybe that game will be WOW lol.
It does not matter if a game comes out that is miles better than the rest,trying to pry 12+ million gamers from there maxed out accounts on WOW ,is a monumental task.This is what players cling to ,at least the majority do,there friends and there levels an their virtual gear,they have in those other games.
What will actually dethrone WOW is Blizzard,they will make a NEW game,and the Blizzard faithful will again blindly follow them into the game.This will divide and conquer the WOW faithful[as happened to EQ>EQ2].Once this happens,then the NEXT big game on the block will be the one to reap the rewards and cash in on those millions of players.Who knows perhaps it could be the Mcfarlane/Schilling game,i think that is about due in 2012.SO far in the distant future,i am sure SOE has something working up their sleeve,they will by that time probably have some new MMORPG,and SOE delivers in big fashion,so if they find the right niche and the timing is right ,who knows.SOE has started a movement to shift resources and close down games,so i think they have a major plan for something new.
EVE an aged piece of work,but it has the design that may not get any competition.In Eve you can do so much with so little effort,there is things you can achieve while going for a snack,that lazy type gaming will always have a niche following.I do however expect to eventually see some developer come along and do what EVE should have done and make it a complete MMORPG with advanced features,probably not until around 2015.
Some of those other games??? lmao ,i see a few of those being cancelled or having less than 40k players,no idea on the train of thought for placing them in there.WOD?40k players,APB?? lucky to be alive in 2012,again 40k players ,IF it survives.
Any Star Wars game will have some sort of longevity solely off it's name ,nothing more,so i can see those sticking around.
FFXIV may be well placed around #4,hard to say,they are banking on a totally different approach,to MMO gaming,one i don't agreee with,but we will find out soon enough,if it has a following as FFXI did.
Final Fantasy XIV got a good spot. Sounds about right.
WORLD OF WARCRAFT IN FIRST POSTITION IN 2012 LOL !
actually, the game is great.. but in 3 years? no.. really not.. its still going to be a nice game, but never first..
Personnaly I will plan to be playing Aion. I am enjoying it more than any other game I've played so far and that's just solo. But who knows in 3 years.
Nice to see eve on the list.
I have no doubt that game will be going strong 5 years from now.. it is just as much fun today as when I started in 2004.
The game contnues to evolve in fascinating ways, and the fact that everything important in the game is PLAYER driven means that you never know what the next year will bring.
No matter how good a game's AI is, it will never equal 20-50k people online at any given time (most of whom are trying hard to completely destroy you!).
Hats off to CCP for staying true to their original vision.
Yeah, SyFy, what's that all about? SciFi made sense, SyFy is just how a stupid person would spell it.
"We don't want the kids to think we are a channel just for stuffy geeks who insist on being grammar nazis. Let's change our name to something hipper, something that speaks to the new generation, something that says 'Hey kids, we're stupid just like you!'"
I'd consider that nothing more than truth in advertising, since all you are likely to see on that channel is another fine SyFy original movie like "Zombie Vampire Spiders from Outer Space IV."
Apparently there is good money in stupidity... everything is getting a whack from the "dumb down" hammer these days.
It's a shame too.. scifi used to be one of the only interesting channels left on the tube. Oh well.
Intelligent people comprise too small a market to appeal to mass-market media like TV, movies, and MMOs.
This WoW being #1 is based on numbers, statistics, math right?
Ok so let's see if I get this, if the biggest number of people on xfire spend more hours on WoW then it has more market share then it's also logical to say that the massive amount of people that vote on mmorpg game rating represent the majority of the gamer community and their opinion of what is the best mmo around right?
With that in mind... WoW User Rating = 8.0 ---- Lineage2 User Rating = 8.1
'nuff said.
So we are talking about the Top 10 ( most subs, positive press, strong playerbase ) premium ( 12,5 - 15€ per month ) western ( played in the western countries ) mmorpgs in 2012, hmm ...
My list would be
1. WoW
2. EVE Online
3. Aion
4. LOTRO
5. Final Fantasy XIV
6. Guild Wars 2
7. Champions Online
8. World of Darkness
9. Star Trek Online
10. One of the upcomming sci-fi sandboxes :
Fallen Earh or Earthrise
WoW will still be number one in 2012, but they will have lost marketshare. You can already clearly see now that WoW is leveling out in subsciption numbers, they are stagnating, slowly, but surely.
Even though they make leveling faster, max level gets farther away (psychologically, at least) with each expansion, and lowbie areas are relatively barren. Even when you don't HAVE to group to level fast, a lot of people play these games to group and that's not a good option if you're not playing in primetime. I think a new system is needed to encourage the leveling of alts. I don't think heirloom items are the answer.
Even though they make leveling faster, max level gets farther away (psychologically, at least) with each expansion, and lowbie areas are relatively barren. Even when you don't HAVE to group to level fast, a lot of people play these games to group and that's not a good option if you're not playing in primetime. I think a new system is needed to encourage the leveling of alts. I don't think heirloom items are the answer.
thats what blizzard is working on. From the very little info given they will only be addin 5 new levels per expac as well as retooling the lower levels.
And that is why this genre is now a dead duck.
Sad to say, I agree.
2012 is still three years away...and a lot can happen in three years.
So I want to make a prediction of my own for 2012. I think the order of games in your list may be more or less correct, but I think the overall quantity of MMO players will decrease by 1/3 to 2/3 of what they are now.
That is to say, WoW may be king, I predict it will lose 4-10 million subscribers between now and 2012. The other games may have significant playerbases, but the definition of significant will change. I think the days of million-subscriber games will be more or less gone by 2012. The reasons have to do with the following:
1) The market is flooded with a lot of games, and there's no indication that quality is improving. It is similar to what happened to cartriges in the early 1980's: a lot of games and a lot of options for multiplayer gaming (sub models, F2P browserware, consoles, peer-to-peer multiplayer systems, etc.) with more of an incentive to copy existing games than to create wholly new ways of gaming.
2) Scams, buggy releases, and an ever-increasing price point for the player to enjoy the game is going to affect the consumer confidence in this genre, much the same way as it did in 1983-1984.
3) The industry is counting on the 12 million subscribers to WoW will get sick of WoW and move on to their games instead, yet there is no indication that these 12 million really want to pick up another online game after they tire of WoW.
4) There's little evidence that the current levels of interest in MMORPGs are permanent. The likelihood that MMORPGs are a fad cannot be discounted. It could be that MMOs, like most other technological entertainment options, are subject to a five-year meteoric rise in appeal followed by a five-year steep decline. Look at the history of analog (late70's to mid 80's), 2D (mid 80's to mid 90's), 3D (early 90's to early 2000's), and online (early 2000's to, I predict, early 2010's).
5) There are other options today to enjoy playing online with people without committing to the MMO conventions. Peer-to-peer matchmaking services have come a long way, they are far less expensive for the consumer and the producer than MMOs, and they offer a lot more options for gaming than MMOs allow.
So I predict the games might be ordered as stated in the article, but the landscape will be much different in 2012.
“Is there any legitimate or realistic reason to believe that WoW won’t still be the number one MMO on the market in 2012?”
Yes.
Final Fantasy is the 6th best selling franchise in video game history. The only RPG to beat it is pokemon--and i don't see any future plans to make a pokemon MMO so that leaves FF.
And since they've said they are going to add many casual elements (which i realllly hope they dont add too many) that will make it big.
ok, but not everyone can stomach a Asian style MMO.
FF is not Korean. Not that the origin matters
MMORPG = Massively Multiplayer Online Roleplaying Game
A Chatroom(Battlenet) doesnt qualify as Massively.
I predict Diablo 3 will be more of an MMORPG than Star Wars: The Old Republic will.
i don't want WoW to be #1 in 2012... seriously... it's damn overrated (and it was already overrated years ago!!!) and it's not even that good.
Guild Wars 2 will pwn WoW's overhyped butt. also, Lineage 2 should be on the list... or... Lineage 3?
"Lineage III is a sequel to Lineage II by NCsoft. The Lineage III project began January 1, 2008 and will be announced to the public in 2011"
Without the luxury of a crystal ball, I would have the top spot in my list as one of these three, with the other two (including WoW BLEH) being in close 2nd, 3rd, 4th.
Final Fantasy 14 might possibly be number one due to the cross-platform that has been up for talks since the word "Rapture" was released from SE.
Guild Wars 2, with it possibly being F2P?, could easily take the number one spot as well. Alot of hours of my life have been spent alone in the instanced world of Guild Wars (and Nightfall). Perhaps with a more open world, where others can play in the same instance would be nice (out of party).
If anything in pop culture can teach us anything, it's that super heros equal money. From "The 3", I think either Champions or DC will be further up on the list (sorry, Batman > X-Men).
Then, of course, the elephant in the room, WoW. WoW has seen steady numbers, and nothing seems to show me otherwise that it won't stay on top. Just wishful thinking that it won't be in 3 years :)
Can someone please save this somewhere so we can throw it in his face =P
I applaud the attempt but i just dont buy it. STO and SW:TOR in the top 5, yeah definitely. a Superhero game up there yeah. Aion - not so sure. APB - definitely not sold on that idea. Eve? uh, your own criteria should keep that one out of the top 10.
You know, i think there might even be a console mmo in the mix there, but probably not yet by 2012. Given the new things like Natal (though i doubt that will do it) and Sony's new motion control system, i cant wait for mmos that really let you "be who you were born to be" to quote a lotro (or other LOTR game) ad.
Picture that tech demo where the guy was using the two wands (kinda like dual wii motes) and it represented them like a bow and the other hand was knocking the arrows, and a button press (i assume) to release. Add that to a freaking mmo where you got a party of 5 people, and we're not that far from actually playing .hack sign in VR.
Next step between where we are now and there is the motion control/video capture software stuff in development. Then we go to triple bigscreens for more peripheral vision - i mean think about how much a human can actually see, and how much a screen represents. Most people see right around 180 degrees, some (like myself) a little bit more. A screen, even sitting 4-5 feet from a 50" bigscreen is only say 60-80 degrees, rough guess. My 19" flatscreen here at 2-3 feet is like 30-40 tops. So yeah, once you get past the lack of real visualization, and into either multiple screens, or matrix style crap....oofa. Cant wait =P On that same note, imagine FPS games, it's gonna be more like that new movie coming out "gamer" only not controlling a real person obviously, but gameplay will be like what's shown in the commercials. Potential for that kind of gaming is just staggering.
I know, i got off on a tangent, but it's late and im waiting for 8am to roll around so i can play champions lol.
I can't believe you placed World of Darkness at number 6. Honestly, that's bogus. It's should be at least number 2 and Champions Online closing in on a top 5 position. WoW won't be number one but it'll hold a top 5 spot just because of the numbers it attracts (or attracted as they're LOSING players). I think you just gave more bullshit hype to a game (WoW) that needs to die already...
I think WoW keeps getting people back into WoW by coming out with new content in the expansion packs. I know I have gotten sucked back in twice by the expansions and quickly gotten bored with them. So, by keeping people coming back with new content, what more do they have to explore in the Warcraft universe? Arthas was the end all-be all in Warcraft. He's in this expansion. So what next? I mean, it doesn't matter to me. I won't be going back to play the game again. But what more can they possibly come out with to sucker people back into playing that will keep them on top in 3 years?
Great post as usual and nice picks...
I'm participating in the Fallen Earth Beta and I finally got what I was looking for and I think it might have a good spot on 2012, specially because M rated MMOs haven't really done a good job on the past years (Bloddymare:Requiem / AoC), as imho they all think that M rate is for nudity and gore, and that´s not it, a M rated MMO is a complex, skill based game that requires a great effort and maturity to be played, and Fallen Earth is delivering that with great competence...
...But I have to agree that WoW is probably still going to be the king of the hill by that time, and I think of that because games like Aion keep coming out and it bores me to death, while people try to make games LIKE WoW, people are going to play more and more WoW, and that's not a bad thing, as for the "new" things people ask all the time are being brought in WoW all the time with great content patches and expansions....
Lol but I would like to point something out, most people on this and many other threads in the forum are burning WoW to the ground, so where are the 12 million guys playing that game !?
I personally believe that if SE doesn't completely mess up FFXIV (which isn't likely, if they do it the same way they did XI), it'll rule the PvE of MMO's. It'll never be the 'best' MMO however only because it doesn't focus on PvP which will make lots of players avoid it. I think it'll be on top 3 anyway though, since it's PvE will be better than any other games out there.
WoW may still be a behemoth in 2012.
It will also remain a simplistic kid's game.
Good read Jon,
I'll be interested to see which of the super hero's games take's off, I really enjoy COH. I'm also hoping the old republic will add something exciting and new to MMO's, that seems to have been a lot of rehashing recently (although some nice polish).
As to WoW I got talked into playing again, and I've finally leveled a character to 80, but I've just ended my subscription, as it just gets to boring after awhile.
Great article Jon - interesting read.
Personally, I'm hoping for the success of GW2 and Knights of the Old Republic, since those are games I'm interested in playing. I also think that Second Life (or worlds like that) is going to continue to have a presence. Some people like to be part of making their world, and some people like to be in an online world without the emphasis on RPG structure. I'm also wondering about the success of games such as Free Realms, targeted to a younger crowd but I know a number of adults who are playing it and having a great time.
As for WoW, I don't play WoW myself (might one day) but I always applaud Blizzard's success - they made a game that so many people want to play. I think that's a good thing.
On a different note - one of the things I'm hoping for, with the new tools and infrastructure out there, is smaller, more niche oriented MMOs that can make a go of it. In my ideal world, one slot of "most popular" MMOs would be filled by a very successful group of MMOs that have subscriptions of, oh 1000 - 5000 in number with active populations of people happily playing them.
Dont forget the secret world by Funcom, MMO based on the work of H.P. Lovercraft.
You guys are forgetting that D3 will not be an mmorpg because it is NOT a persistant world nor is it massive.
I don't think Wow will be in the top spot even at the end of 2010. and here is why.
WoW has a ton of subs fron asia and there are some really cool games comming out soon that will practically cripple their subs over there. Namely from Emil Chronicle online. When the beta testers are begging on any forum they can find on info about when will OB start you know they have something good there.And it isn't the normal people complaining about CB ending it's like a zealot professing his undying love for his god. ECO will do very well.
FFXIV will take a ton of subs from WoW. Anyone who played FFXI for longer than a year will undoubtably try FFXIV immediately. This success will be fueled by the fact that the FFXI 500k community will flock to the new game as well.
EVERYONE will try SWTOR......no really EVERYONE. If Bioware hits it out of the ballpark it's game over, nuff said.
Jumpgate Evolution. should be pretty popular. I am skeptical about netdevil's ability to make a next gen MMO world. but I really hope they get it right.
Black Prophesy, I think this game will surprise a lot of people. The devs seem extremely competent and are making a world that I will have to try.
FPS mmo's......I don't see any on the horizon that I think will amount to anything notable, and I play FPS games.......scratch that Global Agenda looks awesome and will proably pull in a substantial subscriber base.
Add onto that Champions online and DC universe and a slew of upcomming promising titles and I see WoW subs taking a severe beating next year. Expecially now that the release too early = failure fiasco's have shown the developers that the only way to sucess is to release a polished product.
Karos online looks very good, and if the Diablo 2 1.13 patch is awesome we might also see a flock of people going old school D2 for a while.
Interesting writeup and I mostly agree with it except for Aion.
I honestly don't think Aion is going to do as well as the hype is hinting at. Having tried it during it's two open events so far I just can't get into it. Nor can most of the folks I know who have tried it. The quests are boring (at best) and if you don't quest the game is extraordinarily grindy. The crafting system is an outright joke and the classes are excruiciatingly linear. I just don't see it going anywhere in the long run.
I'm going to have to disagree. I've played C-Aion, had a glad up to 47, and the game explodes once you get past level 35. AND C-Aion was only version 1.0 when I was playing. They've added so much with 1.2 and 1.5 that the NA/ EU version is releaseing with.
I'd say Aion will take the place of STO at #5, other than that, good list.
There is one very good reason to believe that wow will not be top dog in 2012 (unless you're a nut job apocalolypso and belive it's all coming to an end then anyway), and that is that blizzard is developing another mmo! Yes, that's right, the only company that can stop this company is another sub-company of that company.
That, and Cataclysm looks aweful.
Also, everyone will have grown bored of killing off all the cool guys from the rts, seriously, bad decisions, after we kill arthas, then what? who's going to care?
So yeah, a new blizzard mmo and perhaps guild wars 2.
I'm going to have to disagree. I've played C-Aion, had a glad up to 47, and the game explodes once you get past level 35. AND C-Aion was only version 1.0 when I was playing. They've added so much with 1.2 and 1.5 that the NA/ EU version is releaseing with.
I'd say Aion will take the place of STO at #5, other than that, good list.
Not really a surprise you "have to disagree", i mean, look at your name, it's like you have obsessive compulsive disorder to promote aion already. Oh and, explain exactly which points of his do you "disagree" with, because right now, it only sounds like you have an addiction which keeps you warm through the night, oblivious to the grind.
Someone obviously isn't paying attention to the front page of this website.
#1 Aion 9,858 Unique Hits
#2 EVE Online 4,655 Hits
#3 Champions Online 4,114 Hits
#4 Karos Online 2,719 Hits
#5 World of Warcraft 2,648 Hits
#6 Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures 2,515 Hits
#7 Fallen Earth 2,418 Hits
#8 Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning 2,305 Hits
#9 Earthrise 2,248 Hits
#10 Darkfall 2,152 Hits
I find it rather hard to dismiss, the fact that more people have shown and/or are showing more interest in other games than World of Warcrap in past 24 hour periods.
I for one look forward to that ranking falling further and further behind, but it's going to be up to players and the other game developers to make it happen. I've been in enough betas and online games to see devs totally shoot down their own products by not listening to the community's comments, requests (rather, "demands" since so many online gamers are utterly immature), and suggestions beyond a few days or scant weeks during the betas. Millions of gamers know what works and what isn't working. They may not be "professionals", but I'd be more apt to listen to them if I was a Dev. It -is- their money the Devs are after, after all.
GUILD WARS 2,You have got to be joking.i like to see that and what are the change's in this game couse GW suck.realy suck
New content released of Final Fantasy XIV from GamesCon Germany today.
www.eorzeapedia.com/2009/08/19/ffxiv-gamescom-in-one-word-playable/
You just described WOW.
Someone obviously isn't paying attention to the front page of this website.
#1 Aion 9,858 Unique Hits
#2 EVE Online 4,655 Hits
#3 Champions Online 4,114 Hits
#4 Karos Online 2,719 Hits
#5 World of Warcraft 2,648 Hits
#6 Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures 2,515 Hits
#7 Fallen Earth 2,418 Hits
#8 Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning 2,305 Hits
#9 Earthrise 2,248 Hits
#10 Darkfall 2,152 Hits
I find it rather hard to dismiss, the fact that more people have shown and/or are showing more interest in other games than World of Warcrap in past 24 hour periods.
I for one look forward to that ranking falling further and further behind, but it's going to be up to players and the other game developers to make it happen. I've been in enough betas and online games to see devs totally shoot down their own products by not listening to the community's comments, requests (rather, "demands" since so many online gamers are utterly immature), and suggestions beyond a few days or scant weeks during the betas. Millions of gamers know what works and what isn't working. They may not be "professionals", but I'd be more apt to listen to them if I was a Dev. It -is- their money the Devs are after, after all.
Those are not subscriptions though. Its hard to dismiss 10M+ subscribers that WOW has. I'm nota fanboy just saying. I personally thing that WOW has the right idea but Ive palyed it and it was time to move on. Aion or FF 14 will be my next venture.
I still think lotro diservs a place
Read up on what you are talking about before you post please. Guild Wars 2 is a lot different than Guild Wars... Anyone can see that.
LOTRO is already on its way out. Tey have even dropped the prics just to get subs. Just like AOC is on its way out. Asfar as Guild Wars goes the game is great. Duing its Prime it had over 6 milion subs. The biggest problem is the lack of content (PVE). But the PVP has been hail as the best all over the world. So I would say GW 2 has potential.
Maybe codemasters will make LOTRO free as they made Archlord and RF free
I can see that happening. Warhammer looks like is on its way out too! I logged on for the first time in monthes and all my toons are moved. I wish WAR luck. Hello AION!!!
i think i am still staying with lotro
What makes LOTRO so good for you? I've never played and I know no one hwo has IRL
i realy like the books and the movies. And the community is real helping.
Aion will absolutely be the best game and also number one in terms of sub numbers. Aion is going to be the new WoW, except much better. Not to say that WoW isn't amazing, which clearly it is to some, but Aion is just so appealing and so many people are going to play it. It already has 3.5 million subscribers after not that long a time of being out.
GW2 is definitely locked for the number 2 spot because everyone will dish out cash for a high quality non-subscription based game that they don't feel married to the way they would to the others. SWTOR will have an initial large number of subs but it will be another Warhammer in that the fans of the MMO series are not happy because of too much single player content. It will shoot up immediately to 750k, one million, maybe 1.5 million subs and sink down from there to about 400k. At that point EVE will probably have a steady 500-750k subs number and APB will have a similar number.
No LOTRO or Fallen Earth in the top 10? I'm willing to bet LOTRO will be around for some time time to come as Turbine is very active with updating and expanding the game and it has a very loyal fanbase. Also, I think the crafting and unique setting of Fallen Earth will keep it just outside if not in the top 10 imho.
I give LOTRO until the end of 2010 it will b e eaither dead or bear dead. I think people are read for something new.
#10- World of Darkness
#9- Superhero MMO
#8- Eve Online
#7-APB
#6-Star Trek
#5-Final Fantasy XIV
#4- AION
#3- Guild Wars 2
#2- Star Wars
#1- World of Warcraft
Hate to say it but I don't think any of these will dethrone WoW as the #1 MMO in the long haul. I believe the only MMO that has that potential is another Blizzard MMO. I think AION will take the #2 Spot for awhile but then fall off as other MMOs start to appear such as SWTOR and GW2. If wow does fall off the charts I don't believe it will be because of another MMO. The mass majority of WoW players are new to the genre and show almost no intrest in anything other than WoW. I believe those people will either quit playing MMOs or possibly move to Blizzs next MMO.
First off I think EVE should be higher on your list...its the only MMO to have a steady increase in subs besides WOW. Secondly, to be second to WOW is no small feat. Even to have 1M subs is awesome, that said if you have 300k-500K subs you are successful. People have to remember WOW is a freak phenomenon and no game has to kill it to be successful. Lastly, GW wars as good as it is will only keep people’s attention for a while before they shot playing it. Like many others, I play thru the content a couple of times then I stop playing. That being said I don't think it should be on the list because its not a monthly sub game. GW out of all them (if they went to a sub and kept up with content) would be a major contender on this list. To be honest I see SW being a niche game and FFXIV being more popular.
My TOP 5 are:
1. WOW
2. FFXIV
3. AION
4. SW
5. Star Trek
Hate to say it since I am riding the hype of SW:TOR but I don't think it'll be as high on the list as the OP has it. It seems too wordy and slow for the mainstream MMO player. It certainly will be in the top 10 since after all it is Star Wars but all the cut scene dialog will turn off a lot of players who don't have the patience to enjoy the stories.
As for Aion, I think it will do well but it's often hard to filter out objective opinions of it amidst the rabid fanboys but the hype reminds me of the WAR hype last year around this time. "WAR is going to take a lot of WoW subscribers" is what I remember reading. Did it actually happen, I suspect not, and if it did it was only temporary. I hope it does well though since WoW needs to have some solid competition otherwise it'll just stagnate.
1:wow
2:gw2
3:ffxv
ya i know i didnt include eq2 the game i love now the fact that its not a kid game its more of a rp /pvp adult game
and the fact eq2 had so much issue in the past hurts it a lot .
i didnt include aion because like all new franchise,the player can make or break any game
(sure as hell wasnt for me and there are ton of post from million of player who betaed it and think alike
Did you even read the part of the article where I brought up the fact that we HAD considered LotRO? I mean, the article specifcally says we thought about it...
Just because you said it, does not mean its logical, and heres the quote:
"They include: The Secret World, The Agency, Copernicus, Lord of the Rings Online, Global Agenda and Fallen Earth."
So, Lotro is the only AAA game in that list that is, a) already launched and b) with a big stable user base.
You also forgot that The Hobbit will be a major production that will have 2 movies, one coming out in 2011 and another in 2012, and Turbine has the rights for the Book. They will mostly launch an X-Pac to get on the hype at that time. Do you really think that Star Strek, World of Darkness or Final Fantasy will be bigger than the Hype that Lotro will have in 2012?
That list is complete bull.
No "The Secret World" ??? Is that not out in 2012??
Remembering the hype of Warhammer and Tabula Rasa, I'm simply not convinced that the massively hyped games on that list will actually have any lasting value. Guildwars 2 has a good shot, but Aion, Star Wars and Star Trek make me raise an eyebrow in response. I also think that the F2P model will be taking hold as people discover that they want to play multiple games, and pay for things on a one-shot basis.
Aion-Way too much Asian grind under the covers
Star Wars-Over-reliant on the "fully-voiced", single-player experience.
Star Trek- Huge gamble on the everyone gets to be a captain, but may end up surviving.
I fully expect relatively unknown games at this time to go viral and take over several slots on that list. On really solid candidate is Torchlight. The SP version of this game took PAX completely by surprise and by storm. There will be an MMO (yes, true MMO) version of this game about 18 months after the SP is released on October 27.
With a team that includes the Schaefer brothers (Max and Erich from Diablo fame) and Travis Baldree (Fate) and published by Perfect World, I think that this game has a shot at being very, very big.
jon... all you write is shit, im sorry.
No Lord of the Rings Online?
I can't even take this list serious if such a stand out is totally forgotten..
I tell ya this is the most under-rated MMO on the market..
So according to the list of Super Hero MMO's that mean that City of Heroes will be gone by 2012?
Wow! Once again an article referencing popular MMORPGs completely and utterly fails to notice the 2nd largest MMORPG currently in Europe - second only to the might WoW in this case.
It amazes me that Runescape doesn't get a mention in these sorts of articles (in many main stream online magazines), especially when wider reaching sites such as Eurogamer and Gamasutra are savvy enough to jump on the fact of Runescape's success.
(Another MMO that has seen a continual upwards curve in subscribers since it's initial release almost a decade before I might add!)
So for this article, it somewhat amazes me that the much talked about (both in the playerbase circles as well as these official sites) upcoming MMORPG codenamed 'Mechscape' hasn't even been glanced at.
Even if some may think that it won't be a sustaining force in 2012, if the last 5 years are anything to go by with Runescape, then I would expect Mechscape to be another heavy contender.
It doesn't matter if you think Runescape / Mechscape is good OR bad. That's not the point of the article. But to overlook such a radically large player in the MMO stomping grounds is slightly short-sighted, I feel.
Opinion stated. :-)
guild wars2 will deffinately take 1st maybe i'm the only one who has realized this but wow last decent patch was burning crusade
i think its nice to see WoW at the bottom,been waiting for it to decline ever since my friends always tell me to go back to it cuz its "so awesome"
1. WoW (hate to say it but don't think anything will debunk it for quite some time since people seem to mesure success by sub numbers)
2. SWTOR (At least initially, I think once the hype wears off it'll be more inline as #3 or #4. At launch I think they'll havea massive following but will dwindle down after time like all launches for various reasons.)
3. GW2 (While peronally this is my no. 1 but some people here seem to can't get past that a B2P buisness model can be as good of a quality if not higher than a P2P, sadly this is something that many will hold against it. While I support no gear grinding and more about fun gameplay which this will deliver, however many HAVE to have epic lewtz in their MMO which is not something in GWs)
4. The Secret World (Funcom is incorperating some intresting concepts and like GW2 and more than SWTOR they have some unique concepts, whether or not these mechanics works and are enjoyable remains to be seen.)
5. FF XIV (ONLY if they unfuck it, there is severe issues atm but once content is incorperated and the game finally turns into a completed game then it might be worth something)
When Dust hits the market maybe EVE Online will be up there, it is an intresting game but the crowd attracted to it is not very much, nothing against EVE as I love a lot of it's elements but you typical MMOer wants action MMO like the others listed.
Another title I forsee popularity maybe is Neverwinter, but it could also be a severe flop. Allowing players to make their own content will be amazing, and will Cryptic ackowledging their past failures and some leadership changes along with working with Wizards of the Coast then this titiel might turn out to be a tremendous success. There are many DnD fans out there that would love an DnD MMO but this is a co-op game so not sure if it should be on the list or not. A comon misconception considering people commonly mistake GW as an MMO when it is a Co-Op and was never an MMO.
I wouldn't hold your breath on that, the sheer size, popularity, fanbase, and many don't want to leave an MMO after spending years in will keep people there and continue it's domination. A lot of my frineds in WoW stay there because of this, if your content, why leave it? WoW was something very unique while something will eventually rivial it and maybe SWTOR and GW2 will do that but I think they'll still be no. 1 on the charts for quite some time until "Titan" releases. Just maybe that won't be in the lead so much in 2012.
It looks more like this thread is about guessing the top subs than giving actual opinions on what games will be best.
IMO Archeage is miles above the rest,as a matter of fact ,i have almost no interest in the other games at all,they look to be going for a cheap effort,one i am not fooled by.
CCP alone means i will never support DUST,so i have not been following DUST to know weather it has any potential as a good game or not.When i say good game ,i mean as far as quality design goes,i am not talking sub numbers.
Wow!
Talk about thread resurrection, that's some powah necroin'
Funny list to see though, especially with the progression of time.