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Originally posted by supbro
And those boxes sit now on western dealer's shelves. And they sit and sit ... Just like the rest of those unsold 1.2 M WAR boxes with 5/5 servers to support the unsold units :) Get a grip Aion has 14NA/18EU non full servers. That's the equivalent of 250K western subs... and rapidly declinging according to Xfire. You really have to be blind to believe this Korean is going to stay in player's minds.
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Originally posted by Kyleran
If you see how they present their so called financial "documents" on the web... Those are not even close to officially audited financial reports. Assumptions have no place there. And another proof NCsoft is lying their asses off. Remember the non confirmed 3.5M eastern subs ? Of course - like the market shares show - they are in financial trouble. With a worldwide launch like that, with ALL those translations, you better have a million block buster in every continent or you 'll get burned instead. That's what is happening. Just a very significant detail: look at their report: NOT a word on their number of Chinese servers anymore ... Hiding again. I have pity with those supporters of Aion: but they should have known better. Aion is a faked up hype. |
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Yamota
Elite Member
Joined: 10/05/03
No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity. I know none and therefore, am no beast. |
Originally posted by Zorndorf
And those boxes sit now on western dealer's shelves. And they sit and sit ... Just like the rest of those unsold 1.2 M WAR boxes with 5/5 servers to support the unsold units :) Get a grip Aion has 14NA/18EU non full servers. That's the equivalent of 250K western subs... and rapidly declinging according to Xfire. You really have to be blind to believe this Korean is going to stay in player's minds.
Where do you get 250k from? The 18+14 = 32 servers are about half full (I take that from half of them listed as full and half as recommended). One Lineage 2 server had a maximum capacity of 5000. Since it is the same company, and a newer game, one would assume that Aion servers has atleast that high max capacity. So half full servers would be 2500 concurrent players. 2500x32 = 80.000 concurrent subscribers. A typical number used is that 15% of subscribers is the peak concurrent subscribers. So that gives us 80.000/0.15 = 533.000 subscribers. With 970.000 boxes sold that is (533.000-970.000)/970.000 = -0.45 which is a 45% drop of subs which coincidently is about the same drop as XFire shows. So the current subscriber base is around 525.000, give or take 50.000, not 250.000. If it would be 250.000 then the drop would be (250.000-970.000)/970.000 = -0.74 which is a 74% drop and there is nothing to indicate that huge drop (including XFire trends that you like to use). Also I am playing the game and I think I would notice a 74% drop and I dont. The zones are full and the chat channels are constantly cluttered with people LFG. Aion is not the next generation of MMORPG but it is a very solid one, very solid WoW clone to some extent but still very solid.
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Originally posted by Yamota Where do you get 250k from? The 18+14 = 32 servers are about half full (I take that from half of them listed as full and half as recommended). One Lineage 2 server had a maximum capacity of 5000. Since it is the same company, and a newer game, one would assume that Aion servers has atleast that high max capacity. So half full servers would be 2500 concurrent players. 2500x32 = 80.000 concurrent subscribers. A typical number used is that 15% of subscribers is the peak concurrent subscribers. So that gives us 80.000/0.15 = 533.000 subscribers. With 970.000 boxes sold that is (533.000-970.000)/970.000 = -0.45 which is a 45% drop of subs which coincidently is about the same drop as XFire shows. So the current subscriber base is around 525.000, give or take 50.000, not 250.000.
You have a little problem there... Because NScoft bragged that ... at launch ... that 60% of their player base was playing at the same time ... :))) http://uk.aiononline.com/board/notices/view?articleID=164&page=2 I'll quote ... to make it easy on you: "In preparation for Aion’s launch, we ran calculations of our presale numbers with historical conversion ratios and expected concurrency numbers, which led to our determination of launch day server needs. In addition, we had a 25 percent additional capacity in hardware reserve and the ability to increase server population. We’ve further responded to the overwhelming demand by adding additional server worlds in all languages, and still we are working around the clock to address the incredible demand. For example, we’re seeing timeframes where 60 percent or more of our players are playing at any given time. This is a significant event by any MMO standard. Another surprising development is how long players are staying in game—I think that’s a testament to the enjoyable nature of the product. " --------- Now some technical info: 12NA/12EU servers were not enough to solve those 60% of the players logging in. Aion launched with "almost" 400K pre-orders (including those that always pre order and "forget" to collect the real thing so they have a few days of trial). 12NA/12EU means around a 200K max capacity. Clearly not enough for the 400K of which (NCOSFT SOURCE ITSELF) said 60% was trying to get in ... So they upped it to 14NA/18EU (I myself predicted BEFORE launch they would need 16NA/18EU), having a nice 240K possibilty.
----> I don't know where you get that ridiculously low 15% average in btw. As Mark Jaobs himself said that at the launching month around 1/3 players are logged in in a new MMO concurrently time). For older mmorpg's the ratio is between 1/3 and 1/4 , so between 25 and 33% logging in. You can see this from AIon itself btw: Korean had 400 K subs (with 41 servers) and China at the launching week had 113 servers for 1 M (free! at the time) playing players. Take your (extreme low) 15% (see the bragging of NCsoft 60% themselves) to 30% and you come up with the exact same figures of me: 250K. Edit: those 970K were shipped to shops (at the end of the quarter). FAR from every box was sold to customers too at this time. They sell it to the retailers, but those boxes still sit on dealers shelves today. In no way are 14US/18EU servers enough to hold the subs you mention (see above the Korea and China Aion situations at launch). |
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Originally posted by Zorndorf
You have a little problem there... Because NScoft bragged that ... at launch ... that 60% of their player base was playing at the same time ... :))) http://uk.aiononline.com/board/notices/view?articleID=164&page=2 I'll quote ... to make it easy on you: "In preparation for Aion’s launch, we ran calculations of our presale numbers with historical conversion ratios and expected concurrency numbers, which led to our determination of launch day server needs. In addition, we had a 25 percent additional capacity in hardware reserve and the ability to increase server population. We’ve further responded to the overwhelming demand by adding additional server worlds in all languages, and still we are working around the clock to address the incredible demand. For example, we’re seeing timeframes where 60 percent or more of our players are playing at any given time. This is a significant event by any MMO standard. Another surprising development is how long players are staying in game—I think that’s a testament to the enjoyable nature of the product. " --------- Now some technical info: 12NA/12EU servers were not enough to solve those 60% of the players logging in. Aion launched with "almost" 400K pre-orders (including those that always pre order and "forget" to collect the real thing so they have a few days of trial). 12NA/12EU means around a 200K max capacity. Clearly not enough for the 400K of which (NCOSFT SOURCE ITSELF) said 60% was trying to get in ... So they upped it to 14NA/18EU (I myself predicted BEFORE launch they would need 16NA/18EU), having a nice 240K possibilty.
----> I don't know where you get that ridiculously low 15% average in btw. As Mark Jaobs himself said that at the launching month around 1/3 players are logged in in a new MMO concurrently time). For older mmorpg's the ratio is between 1/3 and 1/4 , so between 25 and 33% logging in. You can see this from AIon itself btw: Korean had 400 K subs (with 41 servers) and China at the launching week had 113 servers for 1 M (free! at the time) playing players. Take your (extreme low) 15% (see the bragging of NCsoft 60% themselves) to 30% and you come up with the exact same figures of me: 250K. Edit: those 970K were shipped to shops (at the end of the quarter). FAR from every box was sold to customers too at this time. They sell it to the retailers, but those boxes still sit on dealers shelves today. In no way are 14US/18EU servers enough to hold the subs you mention (see above the Korea and China Aion situations at launch).
Aion sold 450k before launch:
http://us.ncsoft.com/en/news/press-releases/aion-launch.html
After launch and with all the Qeues, 500k is the minimum logical sale figure, the launch period saw login issues where Qeues exceeded the maximum display limit of 3000 for Qeues, at which time 60% of players tried to login. But, no one knows how many were trying to login. Liv mentioned a percentage not a figure.
The maximum concurent player capacity for servers is not the total number of subscribers, capacity which was greatly reduced from all the players abusing Private shops to stay logged in. And NCsoft locking factions to preserve balance.
After about 2 weeks, NCsoft added a 30min auto-dc timer to private shops, increased server capacity by 25%. And added new servers with the increased capacity.Then there is the normal reduction of the percentage of players trying to login at any given time, which is expected after 2 weeks of the launch of any MMO, where the time and length of playing sessions normalizes. These factors resolved Qeue issues.
The point to be made is simple. You can't estimate the number of subsribers from max server capacity, its a flawed logic. 60% refers to an unknown number of players at a timeframe where server capacity was not fully efficient. No one knows what is the percentage of concurrent players 2 weeks after launch and now. It could be anything from 10% to 30%.
I know for sure i only play 1 or 2 hours per day and mostly at off-peak time, not everyone plays 4 hours+ for sure. Some even only play the game every couple of days. But they pay the full subsctiption.
This propagnda is getting quiet boring, people who dislike Aion should leave to Blizzards pet-shop and enjoy paying 10$ for a few pixels.
Improve Aion's Graphics with a simple text file that you can create by yourself: -Increase in-game Field of View to 175% or more -Increase view distance for players to 100 meters with camera at max distance -Lots of other settings Learn how by reading this guide at Aionsource http://www.aionsource.com/forum/general-guides/84379-definite-guide-aions-graphical-settings-performance-tips.html |
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Yamota
Elite Member
Joined: 10/05/03
No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity. I know none and therefore, am no beast. |
Originally posted by Zorndorf
You have a little problem there... Because NScoft bragged that ... at launch ... that 60% of their player base was playing at the same time ... :))) http://uk.aiononline.com/board/notices/view?articleID=164&page=2 I'll quote ... to make it easy on you: "In preparation for Aion’s launch, we ran calculations of our presale numbers with historical conversion ratios and expected concurrency numbers, which led to our determination of launch day server needs. In addition, we had a 25 percent additional capacity in hardware reserve and the ability to increase server population. We’ve further responded to the overwhelming demand by adding additional server worlds in all languages, and still we are working around the clock to address the incredible demand. For example, we’re seeing timeframes where 60 percent or more of our players are playing at any given time. This is a significant event by any MMO standard. Another surprising development is how long players are staying in game—I think that’s a testament to the enjoyable nature of the product. " --------- Now some technical info: 12NA/12EU servers were not enough to solve those 60% of the players logging in. Aion launched with "almost" 400K pre-orders (including those that always pre order and "forget" to collect the real thing so they have a few days of trial). 12NA/12EU means around a 200K max capacity. Clearly not enough for the 400K of which (NCOSFT SOURCE ITSELF) said 60% was trying to get in ... So they upped it to 14NA/18EU (I myself predicted BEFORE launch they would need 16NA/18EU), having a nice 240K possibilty.
----> I don't know where you get that ridiculously low 15% average in btw. As Mark Jaobs himself said that at the launching month around 1/3 players are logged in in a new MMO concurrently time). For older mmorpg's the ratio is between 1/3 and 1/4 , so between 25 and 33% logging in. You can see this from AIon itself btw: Korean had 400 K subs (with 41 servers) and China at the launching week had 113 servers for 1 M (free! at the time) playing players. Take your (extreme low) 15% (see the bragging of NCsoft 60% themselves) to 30% and you come up with the exact same figures of me: 250K. Edit: those 970K were shipped to shops (at the end of the quarter). FAR from every box was sold to customers too at this time. They sell it to the retailers, but those boxes still sit on dealers shelves today. In no way are 14US/18EU servers enough to hold the subs you mention (see above the Korea and China Aion situations at launch). 12/12 means 200k max capacity? Where do you get these kind of numbers that you just pull out? Aion sold had about 400k PRE-ORDERs sold. That means that there was atleast 400k subscribers but also a an unknown number of people who bought the game after. So lets say 200k bought it "normally" (i.e. not pre-orders) up to couple of weeks after. That gives about 600k subscribers. 600.000*0.15 = 90.000 concurrent players. 90.000/24 = 3750 people per server. That is pretty high but reasonable number but keep in mind that the 15% people of concurrent users is for an established MMORPG (i.e. not recently launched). So close to release more than 15% would be logged at peak times which would probably be the reason of those extra servers. So to conclude: 15% is the average percentage used for an MMORPG but obviously not right after launch which could see peak numbers of much higher. However now it is long since launch and that 15% is more likely to be correct. So I will stick with my 500k subscribers, all the data I have seen (from official sources) indicate that. EDIT: I dont know where you get the 970k shipped to stores. The article clearly says: "As part of its third-quarter earnings announcement today, NCsoft said that Aion has now sold more than 500,000 units in North America and 470,000 copies in Europe." For me "sold" is not the same as shipped to stores. I dont know where you get that from. |
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Like WAR and AOC, Aion has sold a lot of copies. I'm surprised they didn't release the sub numbers at this point, since it's when they are likely to be at their highest. That in itself is an indicator of how Aion is doing. If it was doing well, they would jump at the opportunity to put those sub numbers out in the public eye, rather than going the AoC/WAR route and release units sold instead. They were aiming for 2nd spot in Western market, so if they had 350k subs they would say they accomplished their goal. That hasn't happened yet, so it'll be interesting to see the trends in x-fire and official sources to see how Aion does in the coming months. |
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Originally posted by MMMOGIRL OH, I'm sorry you where not smart enough to look for those quests past level 25. Yes lag is terrible in the abyss during sieges but they are working to fix it. As for the PvP in the abyss well considering many people are already 35+ in the game already yeah there will be some PvP mis-matches. Currently playing: Aion Played: L2 RFO EvE R.O.S.E EQ2 HellGate:London TRIBES2 WOW WarHammer |
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OH and people need to start ignoring Zorndorf as he has no clue to what he is posting. Currently playing: Aion Played: L2 RFO EvE R.O.S.E EQ2 HellGate:London TRIBES2 WOW WarHammer |
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Originally posted by DevilXaphan OH, I'm sorry you where not smart enough to look for those quests past level 25. Yes lag is terrible in the abyss during sieges but they are working to fix it. As for the PvP in the abyss well considering many people are already 35+ in the game already yeah there will be some PvP mis-matches. And I am sorry that you are not smart enough to read my post. I had lag IN THE VERY BEGINNING,, NOT IN PVP. That is so very very sad that a game has that much lag at level 1. Its also sad that they spent more money on HYPE than on making sure their game will run POLISHED on all ISPs in North America BEFORE THEY RELEASED IT. I also did not say that I made it past 25, I specifically said that I heard from fellow players who had made it. So, who is the dumb one? Certainly not I. NCSoft will not be getting anymore of my money. |
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Originally posted by Cyborg99
NCsoft is the blizzard of the east. Lineage 2 is a monster, with just as many people playing in the East as Blizzard has playing WoW worldwide. |
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Originally posted by MMMOGIRL And I am sorry that you are not smart enough to read my post. I had lag IN THE VERY BEGINNING,, NOT IN PVP. That is so very very sad that a game has that much lag at level 1. Its also sad that they spent more money on HYPE than on making sure their game will run POLISHED on all ISPs in North America BEFORE THEY RELEASED IT. I also did not say that I made it past 25, I specifically said that I heard from fellow players who had made it. So, who is the dumb one? Certainly not I. NCSoft will not be getting anymore of my money.
You know, the problem you are describing is a problem that many people had during one of the beta events. I myself even had the exact same issue after the closed beta events had gone so well.. I also remember people indicating that it had something to do with the internet provider. The game was actually unplayable. But the only time I knew of a large amount of people who had this probblem was during the beta event. |
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NEWSFLASH, FUNCOMS profits soared with the sales of AOC, and Mythics profits soared with the sales of over 1million+ boxes. Sales of boxes dont mean JACK SHIT. bloody hell any games can sell, its about player retention and overall active playerbase of a game. Not a fucuking box sold. Im sure mythic and Funcom will tell you their games were hugelly sucessful with the sales they had. |
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Originally posted by Demz2
Sounds like you're VERY upset that Aion is doing well? Im gonna go out on a limb and say your Zorn's roommate IRL :D |
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Originally posted by Cammy
Sounds like you're VERY upset that Aion is doing well? Im gonna go out on a limb and say your Zorn's roommate IRL :D
How is it upset? Im stating a fact. that both Funcom and mythic sold im boxes. What did that equate to in retention rate and subscribers? Im taking a guess aoc active playerbase is at 100k , and warhammers is even less than that. Sales of boxes dont mean crap.. Do you understand that? |
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Originally posted by Demz2
How is it upset? Im stating a fact. that both Funcom and mythic sold im boxes. What did that equate to in retention rate and subscribers? Im taking a guess aoc active playerbase is at 100k , and warhammers is even less than that. Sales of boxes dont mean crap.. Do you understand that?
Oh I understand it.
I just LOVE your nerd rage when you see someone defending Aion. Its.... funny to me.
So I'll continue to watch you freak out more and more as Aion continues to grow... cause - apparently it was "told" that the servers would be ghost towns after the first month and people needed to resub... and ironically... Im on a low pop server and its BOOMING with people. I know other servers are the same
Do you understand that? We aren't laughing with you, we're laughing at you ;)
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Originally posted by MMMOGIRL
Well, I'm sorry that you seem to be so unhappy and angry about the game. The fact that you had performance problems though does not mean that everyone else did and while some did have similar problems the vast majority did not. It may not have been your PC but it wasn't entirely the fault of the game either.
You state they should have spent their money on polishing the game instead of on hype. What money did they spend on hype? Other than throwing out a random accusation based on no facts how do you arrive at the conclusion that your problems are the result of NCSoft West spending all the development money for pizzas and beers instead of worrying about you or polishing the game?
If you feel poorly treated and don't want to do business with NCSoft then that is what you should do but your experiences are not what myself and many others have experienced. I'm sorry that you are so very very sad. |
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Originally posted by MMMOGIRL And I am sorry that you are not smart enough to read my post. I had lag IN THE VERY BEGINNING,, NOT IN PVP. That is so very very sad that a game has that much lag at level 1. Its also sad that they spent more money on HYPE than on making sure their game will run POLISHED on all ISPs in North America BEFORE THEY RELEASED IT. I also did not say that I made it past 25, I specifically said that I heard from fellow players who had made it. So, who is the dumb one? Certainly not I. NCSoft will not be getting anymore of my money.
WoW, do you even know what your talking about? |
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Originally posted by Darkogie And I am sorry that you are not smart enough to read my post. I had lag IN THE VERY BEGINNING,, NOT IN PVP. That is so very very sad that a game has that much lag at level 1. Its also sad that they spent more money on HYPE than on making sure their game will run POLISHED on all ISPs in North America BEFORE THEY RELEASED IT. I also did not say that I made it past 25, I specifically said that I heard from fellow players who had made it. So, who is the dumb one? Certainly not I. NCSoft will not be getting anymore of my money.
Isn't that the truth...
Who thinks MMOGIRL is Zorn? :D |
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vidiotking
Apprentice Member
Joined: 4/05/08
one in the bush is better than one in the hand. |
Originally posted by solareus I'm pretty sure I've mentioned this to you before, but, Janis did NOT write that song. |
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Good for them? Wake up people.. just because people buy the game doesn't make it a good one.... I"m one of the sorry suckers that figured I would give it a shot, since I'm getting bored with wow ...... I cancelled Aion after only a month of play.. The game is a lame PvP grind.. NO THANKS.. I bet I'm one of thousands that bought the game but are NO LONGER subscribing to it... I guess I have to wait for the next game to come out.. AION failed |
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It isn't surprising they are up 836% based on the fact they were barely making a profit before the launch of Aion. |
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Originally posted by glofish
Good for them! Thumbs up for a great polished product. PS - for those of you who come here to bash it - try not to choke on this news - there are so many games still out there that could be bashed.
This must really upset some folks...muahahaha Happy to see Aion doing well! :-) "Kings of typos" ^^ EDIT: typo... AKA "Hater of haters" |
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Originally posted by Rydeson
lol You feel better now? You sir...fail :-) Don't you have some cake to eat? "Kings of typos" ^^ EDIT: typo... AKA "Hater of haters" |
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