Did you know that xfire numbers also showed that the number of staple used during the month of july is inferior to the number of staples used in march, no really xfire numbers really mean something. Posting them on these forums is really useful.

Instead of always posting xfire numbers think abotu what xfire is and then realise that it doesnt represent the majority of gamers, only the gadget hunters that think having the number of hours they spend playing a game in their sig looks cool.

And its no big news that aoc is going down, fc deserves it.

Originally posted by Jackdog

Originally posted by LondonMagus

The basic point is that it is irrelevant to keep quoting every minute change in the Xfire statistics when they are simply not a representative sample.

and you know this how? Also how is a 13 to 15% drop in numbers each week "minute". Here are some more "minute figures for you. Dates are on the first row, hours played the second. 50% drop is minute? bet the people in the accounting office at Funcom don't think so.

 Xfire Hours logged for Ages of Conan for the Saturdays  between 06/21/08 and 07/19/08

06/21/08	06/28/08	07/05/08	07/12/08	07/19/08
48451	39702	33483	28409	24873

  

Oh good grief. I wasn't saying that the changes in Xfire numbers were 'minute', rather I was saying that they are only directly indicative of people that use Xfire & therefore irrelevant.

Just read the statistical reports, the two populations have significant different demographics. That doesn't mean that I am claiming that AoC is doing fine, just that it isn't statistically valid to predict the behaviour of the general population from an unpresentative subset.

Would you try to predict Sony's annual music revenue based solely on data for people that listen to 'Death Metal'?

I guess if it allowed you to forecast the doom of something you didn't like you probably would.

Originally posted by Arcken

"Death never looked so hot." (or incompetant)

I must admit that when I saw those ads over the weekend I thought they looked like an act of desperation.

Originally posted by LondonMagus

Originally posted by Jackdog

Originally posted by LondonMagus

The basic point is that it is irrelevant to keep quoting every minute change in the Xfire statistics when they are simply not a representative sample.

and you know this how? Also how is a 13 to 15% drop in numbers each week "minute". Here are some more "minute figures for you. Dates are on the first row, hours played the second. 50% drop is minute? bet the people in the accounting office at Funcom don't think so.

 Xfire Hours logged for Ages of Conan for the Saturdays  between 06/21/08 and 07/19/08

06/21/08	06/28/08	07/05/08	07/12/08	07/19/08
48451	39702	33483	28409	24873

  

 

Oh good grief. I wasn't saying that the changes in Xfire numbers were 'minute', rather I was saying that they are only directly indicative of people that use Xfire & therefore irrelevant.

Just read the statistical reports, the two populations have significant different demographics. That doesn't mean that I am claiming that AoC is doing fine, just that it isn't statistically valid to predict the behaviour of the general population from an unpresentative subset.

Would you try to predict Sony's annual music revenue based solely on data for people that listen to 'Death Metal'?

I guess if it allowed you to forecast the doom of something you didn't like you probably would.

I dont agree at all with the whole putting up Xfire numbers to show a trend, but you saying its irrelevant and saying that only some ppl use it its the same as the guy poiting out the numbers and saying that they matter really you are both just assuming what you want to defend your case.

At the end o the day we cant be sure, its up to the people to decide wether they wanna see that as a sample or not, if i used Xfire I would probably take a look at it since i would within the scope of the people who use Xfire meaning if they stopped playing im likely to not like it as well, and the same the other way around.

long story short its a futile argument, LM is obviously defending the game he likes using assumptions, and the other ppl are just defending their belief that the game sucks , based on their own assumptions.

Originally posted by LondonMagus

Originally posted by Gorilla

LM because we are measuring a trend rather than trying to draw conclusions about total numbers it matters much less how you choose the sample. It's only a problem if the demographic of the sample has significantly changed between now and release. The situation is bot good for FC.

Has the next billing cycle come round? What about for the headstart guys?

 

Nobody is disputing that the trend is probably downwards, it's just that if you want to estimate patterns in a general population it is absolutely vital to choose a representative sample. The reason for this is that a minority unrepresentative sample has little effect on overall statistics & can therefore easily behave in a completely different manner.

Just think about what you are saying.

It's only a problem if the demographic of the sample has significantly changed between now and release.

That is like saying that provided their demographic sample hasn't changed, Scientologists are a valid indicator of who might win the next American election. 

It doesn't matter how often or clearly you try to explain the issues to the 'Hatebois' obsessed with Xfire data though, they will never accept the arguments because they enjoy behaving like a lynch mob far too much.

Like it or not there is very little real data available & for those more interested in just being destructive, the Xfire data is just easy troll fodder, hence why they refuse to give it up.

Definitely xfire numbers are valid to show a trend. For several reasons. First AoC xfire users wouldn't be different from other xfire players (who mainly play other games like wow or eqII or whatever). Secondly there is no reason for them to have changed behavior since release of the game.

So what CAN we conclude? There is a TREND saying the game is in trouble. This demographic group can only show the trend. It can not be used to actually predict the number of retention subs and it can not be used for an accurate percentage value of how many quit the game.

Sure there are people who will try to say something otherwise, but fact remain that the trend for the game is going down.

Now if you couple the knowledge from xfire with what is being written on the official forums here and other places, it is easy to see how strong this trend is. Even on the official forums there are threads being flooded with negativity. More than any other mmo. Sure you have to read between the lines and understand that it is against FC's forum policy to make "I quit" posts, so they are locked and deleted and they ban people who are critical and still despite all that they still can't stop people from posting negative things.

So while we can't prove scientifically how many subs there are left we certainly can use xfire from a statistical point of view to show the game is in serious decline.

Originally posted by Draccan

Originally posted by LondonMagus

Originally posted by Gorilla

LM because we are measuring a trend rather than trying to draw conclusions about total numbers it matters much less how you choose the sample. It's only a problem if the demographic of the sample has significantly changed between now and release. The situation is bot good for FC.

Has the next billing cycle come round? What about for the headstart guys?

 

Nobody is disputing that the trend is probably downwards, it's just that if you want to estimate patterns in a general population it is absolutely vital to choose a representative sample. The reason for this is that a minority unrepresentative sample has little effect on overall statistics & can therefore easily behave in a completely different manner.

Just think about what you are saying.

It's only a problem if the demographic of the sample has significantly changed between now and release.

That is like saying that provided their demographic sample hasn't changed, Scientologists are a valid indicator of who might win the next American election. 

It doesn't matter how often or clearly you try to explain the issues to the 'Hatebois' obsessed with Xfire data though, they will never accept the arguments because they enjoy behaving like a lynch mob far too much.

Like it or not there is very little real data available & for those more interested in just being destructive, the Xfire data is just easy troll fodder, hence why they refuse to give it up.

 

Definitely xfire numbers are valid to show a trend. For several reasons. First AoC xfire users wouldn't be different from other xfire players (who mainly play other games like wow or eqII or whatever). Secondly there is no reason for them to have changed behavior since release of the game.

So what CAN we conclude? There is a TREND saying the game is in trouble. This demographic group can only show the trend. It can not be used to actually predict the number of retention subs and it can not be used for an accurate percentage value of how many quit the game.

Sure there are people who will try to say something otherwise, but fact remain that the trend for the game is going down.

Now if you couple the knowledge from xfire with what is being written on the official forums here and other places, it is easy to see how strong this trend is. Even on the official forums there are threads being flooded with negativity. More than any other mmo. Sure you have to read between the lines and understand that it is against FC's forum policy to make "I quit" posts, so they are locked and deleted and they ban people who are critical and still despite all that they still can't stop people from posting negative things.

So while we can't prove scientifically how many subs there are left we certainly can use xfire from a statistical point of view to show the game is in serious decline.

 

 

I think these arguments on the validity of using xfire as a reputable source are simply people trying to cover for their game. Its plainly obviously that people dont like it and are leaving, regardless of what people say, and arguing semantics wont solve that.

Originally posted by Draccan

Originally posted by LondonMagus

Originally posted by Gorilla

LM because we are measuring a trend rather than trying to draw conclusions about total numbers it matters much less how you choose the sample. It's only a problem if the demographic of the sample has significantly changed between now and release. The situation is bot good for FC.

Has the next billing cycle come round? What about for the headstart guys?

 

Nobody is disputing that the trend is probably downwards, it's just that if you want to estimate patterns in a general population it is absolutely vital to choose a representative sample. The reason for this is that a minority unrepresentative sample has little effect on overall statistics & can therefore easily behave in a completely different manner.

Just think about what you are saying.

It's only a problem if the demographic of the sample has significantly changed between now and release.

That is like saying that provided their demographic sample hasn't changed, Scientologists are a valid indicator of who might win the next American election. 

It doesn't matter how often or clearly you try to explain the issues to the 'Hatebois' obsessed with Xfire data though, they will never accept the arguments because they enjoy behaving like a lynch mob far too much.

Like it or not there is very little real data available & for those more interested in just being destructive, the Xfire data is just easy troll fodder, hence why they refuse to give it up.

 

Definitely xfire numbers are valid to show a trend. For several reasons. First AoC xfire users wouldn't be different from other xfire players (who mainly play other games like wow or eqII or whatever). Secondly there is no reason for them to have changed behavior since release of the game.

So what CAN we conclude? There is a TREND saying the game is in trouble. This demographic group can only show the trend. It can not be used to actually predict the number of retention subs and it can not be used for an accurate percentage value of how many quit the game.

Sure there are people who will try to say something otherwise, but fact remain that the trend for the game is going down.

Now if you couple the knowledge from xfire with what is being written on the official forums here and other places, it is easy to see how strong this trend is. Even on the official forums there are threads being flooded with negativity. More than any other mmo. Sure you have to read between the lines and understand that it is against FC's forum policy to make "I quit" posts, so they are locked and deleted and they ban people who are critical and still despite all that they still can't stop people from posting negative things.

So while we can't prove scientifically how many subs there are left we certainly can use xfire from a statistical point of view to show the game is in serious decline.

 

 

No you can only use it to show that Xfire Aoc numbers are in serious decline, but since all you seem to be interested in is seeing AoC die followed by mass dancing on it's grave, you prefer to claim otherwise.

Observing 'trends' in unpresentative subsets is like when 'Homer Simpson bought pumpkins in October with a plan to selling them of in January because they seemed to be doing so well'.

Originally posted by Arcken

I think these arguments on the validity of using xfire as a reputable source are simply people trying to cover for their game. Its plainly obviously that people dont like it and are leaving, regardless of what people say, and arguing semantics wont solve that.

It's not arguing semantics, it's arguing about statistics which is far worse.

I agree with you that the game doesn't seem to be doing well & that Funcom aren't exactly making the situation better at the moment, which is a shame because I still think it has a lot of potential.

It's important to distinguish though between legitimate discussion & ghoulish speculation by people that are desperate to see the game fail.

Originally posted by LondonMagus

Originally posted by Arcken

I think these arguments on the validity of using xfire as a reputable source are simply people trying to cover for their game. Its plainly obviously that people dont like it and are leaving, regardless of what people say, and arguing semantics wont solve that.

 

It's not arguing semantics, it's arguing about statistics which is far worse.

I agree with you that the game doesn't seem to be doing well & that Funcom aren't exactly making the situation better at the moment, which is a shame because I still think it has a lot of potential.

It's important to distinguish though between legitimate discussion & ghoulish speculation by people that are desperate to see the game fail.

You are speculating yourself, think for a second, saying "im arguing statistics and the Xfire numbers dont mean anything" doesnt make you better than the guy claiming they mean something. Also judging by your previous post, in every single discussion you come running in defense of Funcom and AoC, and your arguments are simply shallow, which doesnt help you very much.