Blizzard losing 100k subs during the holiday quarter is NOT a good sign. They did not lose subs to other games, they lost subs because the game has become stale,boring, and predictable.  This is the best quarter for them usually and they lost subs. This quarter includes the biggest content patch they have had this expansion, the annual pass, and the usual sub gain during the holidays. With all that said, they lost subs. It is pretty obvious the game is bleeding and that any big MMO releases that takes potential subs/returning subs will really hurt them. I suspect the next quarter is going to be bigger then any loss in a single quarter thus far as far as subs. 

MoP is coming out probably in Q2, but that won't save them considering there are atleast 2-3 other MMOs coming out that can take potential subs away. (Tera,GW2,Secret World) WoW won't take a huge hit from one MMO, it will multiple MMOs taking a few hundred thousand subs-a million subs that really hurt it and bring it down to the few million sub level that no MMO will surpass again. 

WoW as a game has peaked both in gameplay and challenge. The game won't get anymore interesting then it already is and the main thing in WoW's favor is that people have invested so much time into it and are unwilling to part with it because of that. Even with all that, if friends start quitting for other MMOs they will quit as well. We have already seen Blizzard's unwillingness to add elements like dynamic content,world pvp, and housing. They are probably saving most of the stuff like that for Titan. 

They can gain or lose a million or more subs and guess what? They still need an amy or mules to move the money to the Bank. Find something interesting to talk about. 

Originally posted by tyrannis

They can gain or lose a million or more subs and guess what? They still need an amy or mules to move the money to the Bank. Find something interesting to talk about. 

Considering this is an MMO website, and the amount of MMO subs related to the top MMO on the market has a direct impact on where the industry goes from here...I would say it is something interesting to talk about.

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Originally posted by Celcius
Blizzard losing 100k subs during the holiday quarter is NOT a good sign. They did not lose subs to other games, they lost subs because the game has become stale,boring, and predictable.

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Considering the "success" of SWTOR I can see WoW gaining 100,000 subs next quarter.

I wonder how many people resubbed in Jan or Feb. 

Q3 GAAP Net Revenues by Segment/Platform Mix

Activision and Blizzard:

Online subscriptions (wow subs and sales)

for 3 months $336 mil

Q4 same line which now also includes Call of duty elite memberships

$268 mil

Awesome, somehow they made $68 million less in Q4 wow sales and subs, and that includes holiday sales and COD elite memberships, than they did in Q3 and lost only 100k subs which is $4.5 mil in revenue?

________________________

Between Q2 and Q3 they lost 800,000 subs, and wow revenue declined by $23 million.

Between Q3 and Q4 they lost 100,000 subs, and wow revenue declined by $68 million.

They lost 2.95 times more income with losing 1/8 of the subs that they did in Q3. That's pretty amazing.

What seems more likely, is they lost a ton of high income US/EU subs and gained 100,000 less low income asia subs.

Hey look! We only lost 100,000 subs!

http://investor.activision.com/results.cfm
 

Originally posted by snoop101

I wonder how many people resubbed in Jan or Feb. 

 

Everyone that left, plus 17 million.

Thank God for the Chuck Norris ad or they would have lost 5 million subs

Originally posted by GameOvr

Q3 GAAP Net Revenues by Segment/Platform Mix

Activision and Blizzard:

Online subscriptions (wow subs and sales)

for 3 months $336 mil

Q4 same line which now also includes Call of duty elite memberships

$268 mil

Awesome, somehow they made $68 million less in Q4 wow sales and subs, and that includes holiday sales and COD elite memberships, than they did in Q3 and lost only 100k subs which is $4.5 mil in revenue?

 

 

Didn't they launch in South America this quarter? If those revenue numbers are right I would expect that their losses in NA/Europe were mostly covered by gains in SA, and those are at a lower subscription rate.

Originally posted by Volthar

Didn't they launch in South America this quarter? If those revenue numbers are right I would expect that their losses in NA/Europe were mostly covered by gains in SA, and those are at a lower subscription rate.

BRAZILIAN PORTUGUESE VERSION OF WORLD OF WARCRAFT® IN STORES NOW

Irvine, Calif. -- December 6, 2011

http://us.blizzard.com/en-us/company/press/pressreleases.html?id=4030662

I wish they revealed NA/EU subs every quarter.  That would be far more telling as they get much more money per sub there.  Even gross revenue for all regions would be a better gauge.

Originally posted by Xiaoki

 

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Originally posted by Celcius
Blizzard losing 100k subs during the holiday quarter is NOT a good sign. They did not lose subs to other games, they lost subs because the game has become stale,boring, and predictable.

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So, you dont think the release of Star Wars: The Old Republic, the most hyped MMO release since WoW had anything to do with the drop in subscribers?

 

Considering the "success" of SWTOR I can see WoW gaining 100,000 subs next quarter.

No, considering they having been losing subs for the past year now. SWTOR's success is curious though, since between that and Rift, it proves that multiple MMOs can have a million subs. (I know Rift does not have that many, but it is a fairly close guess I am sure)

What is this thread about who is playing the better game? I really dont see why it matters that WoWs numbers are down just because their numbers go down doesnt mean they are going anywhere. People will play WoW till the day they take the last server offline. Those of us who really wish it would die got a loooong time coming. Just like the people are thinking TOR will not succeed will also be sadly mistaken. 

Originally posted by dotdotdash

WoWs subscriber numbers have NOT stabalised. Over the last 3 months, a further 100,000 subscribers have been lost. That's not stablising. That's a decline.

You do realize that stable doesn't mean the number would have to be exactly the same? Technically it'll allways either decline or increase if the game gains or loses even a single customer, but if the value stays nearly the same it's still possible to say it's stable. People stop playing and new people will start, the subcriber number is not going to stay identical, 1% change in 3 months is as stable as any MMO could realistically get.

I'd still argue that WoW hasn't stabilized because of seasonal changes. We'd need to see data over longer perioid of time showing only very small changes in order to call it stable. But if WoW keeps loss of 1% per 3 months up for a year then the number is stable.

Originally posted by Vrika

Originally posted by dotdotdash

WoWs subscriber numbers have NOT stabalised. Over the last 3 months, a further 100,000 subscribers have been lost. That's not stablising. That's a decline.

You do realize that stable doesn't mean the number would have to be exactly the same? Technically it'll allways either decline or increase if the game gains or loses even a single customer, but if the value stays nearly the same it's still possible to say it's stable. People stop playing and new people will start, the subcriber number is not going to stay identical, 1% change in 3 months is as stable as any MMO could realistically get.

I'd still argue that WoW hasn't stabilized because of seasonal changes. We'd need to see data over longer perioid of time showing only very small changes in order to call it stable. But if WoW keeps loss of 1% per 3 months up for a year then the number is stable.

What he said ^ I am not sure dotdotdash has any understanding of stats, trends, natural fluctuations etc.

Why do you people assume that chinese people pay less? I have NEVER EVER seen a single person showing any facts or evidence to support this claim. All they say is that the Chinese do not pay a sub but pay an amount proportionate to what they play. What is the monthly figure? I sure as hell know that the EU/NA pay virtually nothing. I mean 9 pounds per month? Really? My lunch is more expensive. Or is this some sort of boosting of the Europeans/Americans ego?

These figures were also affected by SWTOR which released during that period. A lot of people were playing SWTOR because it was their free month not necessarily because they will stay with the game.

Overall Blizzard Activision have exceeded expectations for this quarter. What are the trends? Too early to say. Fluctuations and variations are always evaluated over a long period of time. 

Ah, so we are now calling a steady decline in general over the past 3 years a 'natural fluctuation'.

Call the spade, a spade.  It's in decline and there isn't much Blizzard can do about it.  They'll still have more subs than any other MMO for a long time as well.  So it's not like WoW is going anywhere soon.  They will launch in 3rd world countries if they have to in order to keep bringing in money.  They know that the western audience is quickly dying.

Titan will be revelealed next year.

Get the stats on how many of the recent expansions were actually sold and you'll have a more accurate number on ACTIVE playing subs.

Originally posted by fivoroth

Why do you people assume that chinese people pay less? I have NEVER EVER seen a single person showing any facts or evidence to support this claim. All they say is that the Chinese do not pay a sub but pay an amount proportionate to what they play. What is the monthly figure? I sure as hell know that the EU/NA pay virtually nothing. I mean 9 pounds per month? Really? My lunch is more expensive. Or is this some sort of boosting of the Europeans/Americans ego?

I dont know enough about the background to chinese people paying less

but a blogger wrote about it

http://mmodata.blogspot.com/2009/10/chinese-wow-players-pay-less-so.html

Originally posted by DAS1337

Ah, so we are now calling a steady decline in general over the past 3 years a 'natural fluctuation'.

 

Call the spade, a spade.  It's in decline and there isn't much Blizzard can do about it.  They'll still have more subs than any other MMO for a long time as well.  So it's not like WoW is going anywhere soon.  They will launch in 3rd world countries if they have to in order to keep bringing in money.  They know that the western audience is quickly dying.

 

Titan will be revelealed next year.

with the information given its hard to see on what you base your argument, if anything the report is actually very positive, and this is before they even release mists of pandaria which is bound to have a massive positive effect on any lapsed subs, Blizzard are masters of throwing content at their players, in often massive amounts, they can afford to i guess with the revenue that WoW pours in, and to be called a steady decline over 3 years.. would have to have meant that there was no growth in that period, which, if the subscription numbers were displayed as a graph, would indicate peaks and troughs over even a 1 year period, but the mean average is probably closer to being flat, which for a game of WoW's age is very impressive. What we're not seeing, which we would be if there really was a valid competitor for WoW's playerbase, are massive fluctuations in player numbers, all in all, have to wonder why other games are not that appealing to WoW players? its obvious that the MMO developers need to pull their creative fingers out.. what also seems to be obvious is that SW:TOR didnt provide a much needed kick, i also doubt whether GW2 is the type of game to do that either. By september this year, i really have to wonder whether we'll be seeing a positive, or a negative impact on WoW's player numbers.. at the moment i'd hazard a guess that any loss of playerbase in WoW is probably a loss to the genre as a whole, as i don't think their playing other MMO's

This is pretty good news for activision. Only dropping that much in the face of such a huge rivals release two months ago.

Looks like Blizzards fate is still in its own hands. WoW will die a long slow death it seems. Only Bizz can pull the plug.