How bad was cataclysm received? How much impact will lost subs place of remaining server populations?

Analysis of current and historic data from WoW census, projection of current US/EU subscriptions using census as proxy.

Cataclysm is first xpac to not increase subscriptions above previous high water mark. (Jul 07 is well into BC xpac, Nov 08 is release date of LK xpac, increase can be seen in Apr 09).

Comparison of August 2005 US server makeup vs post cataclysm 2012 US server makeup.

There are only about 260,000 more observed players now than there were in Aug 2005, but they are spread out on many more servers; 241 vs 94. There are 177 servers now with a population lower than the lowest population server in 2005.

Tipping point probably already passed regarding player satisfaction on the numerous current low population (by 2005 standards) servers. Blizzard probably losing subs simply because they won't consolidate low pop servers.

fullsize:

http://i40.tinypic.com/ajkxog.png

if blizzard started merging servers they would be admitting theres a problem.

with all the instanced content, it's not that big a deal. (dungeons, battlegrounds, raid)

most people spend the majority of there time in Org or SW.

would it be more fun if the servers were more populated? probably.

you can pay to transfer servers, or re roll.

i think some people dont like the fact that there server is low pop, but i doubt the majority of subs they lose is due to that.

Originally posted by brody71

if blizzard started merging servers they would be admitting theres a problem.

with all the instanced content, it's not that big a deal. (dungeons, battlegrounds, raid)

most people spend the majority of there time in Org or SW.

would it be more fun if the servers were more populated? probably.

you can pay to transfer servers, or re roll.

i think some people dont like the fact that there server is low pop, but i doubt the majority of subs they lose is due to that.

When it gets to the point that the server feels empty, guild recruitment is affected, and the AH economy is impacted, population matters.

Originally posted by GameOvr

Originally posted by brody71

if blizzard started merging servers they would be admitting theres a problem.

with all the instanced content, it's not that big a deal. (dungeons, battlegrounds, raid)

most people spend the majority of there time in Org or SW.

would it be more fun if the servers were more populated? probably.

you can pay to transfer servers, or re roll.

i think some people dont like the fact that there server is low pop, but i doubt the majority of subs they lose is due to that.

When it gets to the point that the server feels empty, guild recruitment is affected, and the AH economy is impacted, population matters.

i agree it matters, to an extent.

"i doubt the majority of subs they lose is due to that."

if they still want to play they will xfer or re-roll.

Lol this guy again?  Oh look, he brought a graph this time. 

.........and again (after already again, again and again) are we seriously back on this after only about two weeks since the last exact post?!?!?!?!?

In summary, is there any real proof.......wow census even admits itself that it's data is crap.........yes the subs are going down but no-one really know by how much (other than what Blizzard has already admitted to) and who the hell really cares that much as long as the game is still going?

what is some peoples absolute obsession with proving that wow is going to die?

Originally posted by jason_webb

.........and again (after already again, again and again) are we seriously back on this after only about two weeks since the last exact post?!?!?!?!?

In summary, is there any real proof.......wow census even admits itself that it's data is crap.........yes the subs are going down but no-one really know by how much (other than what Blizzard has already admitted to) and who the hell really cares that much as long as the game is still going?

what is some peoples absolute obsession with proving that wow is going to die?

http://www.cracked.com/blog/the-7-stupidest-things-that-make-people-proud/

See #7

Originally posted by brody71

if blizzard started merging servers they would be admitting theres a problem.

with all the instanced content, it's not that big a deal. (dungeons, battlegrounds, raid)

most people spend the majority of there time in Org or SW.

would it be more fun if the servers were more populated? probably.

you can pay to transfer servers, or re roll.

i think some people dont like the fact that there server is low pop, but i doubt the majority of subs they lose is due to that.

And because of the instanced content, and concentration of population in Org & SW ... i highly doubt low population is that noticeable.

Org ALWAYS feel crowded. When i mine, there are ALWAYS someone try to steal my nodes (and i steal his).

GameOvr the results of Activision/Blizzard's Q4 report are in.  WoW has 10.2 million subs.

http://investor.activision.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=647732

How does it feel?

Only 10 million left now? Even a hater like me thought they had more subs... a lot more.

/endtroll