This is some seriously confusing stuff

news.ea.com/portal/site/ea/index.jsp

"-- Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning, an MMO from EA's Mythic Entertainment studio, sold 1.2 million copies in the quarter -- with over 800 thousand current players."

What we knew from before:

They sold 500k after 1 week (Sept 25th)
They had 750k account after 3 week (oct 10th)

What it means is this

- They sent 1.5 million copies to retailers at launch

- The 1.2 million can't be copies sold to consumers because by sept 30th they didn't even have 750k accounts

- The 800k players could come from oct 17th to Oct 30th

- They have 250k actual monthly paying subscribers in North America and a 72%+ retention rate

- They have sold between 800k and 980k boxes to consumers, depending on when the 800k is from (70% retention out of the first 600k box sold equals 180k people that left)

Edit: Added by Keeper2000

Some more info from the report:

--------------------------------------

Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning had a strong debut selling 1.2 M copies.

We’re back in the MMO business – with the launch of Warhammer Online. Currently, 800 K people are playing online worldwide. In North America, we have 250 K subscribers in less than two weeks – and are seeing conversions of over 70%. Although it is still early days – we like what we are seeing. In addition, we announced we have Star Wars: The Old Republic MMO under development in EA’s BioWare studio in partnership with Lucas Arts.

-----------------------------------------

Btw, conversion is the same as retention.

investor.ea.com/events.cfm

This Might Help:

Electronics Arts cuts profit outlook, shares fall

* Reuters
* , Thursday October 30 2008

* Lowers full-year earnings outlook
* Adjusted Q2 shr loss 6 cents, meets estimates
* To cut about 6 pct of workforce, or 580 jobs
* Shares fall 14 pct in extended trading (Adds outlook details)
NEW YORK, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Video game publisher Electronic Arts Inc slashed its full-year profit forecast due to slowing demand at retail stores and a delay in the latest "Harry Potter" video game, driving its stock down 14 percent.
EA, whose popular titles include "Rock Band", said on Thursday plans to cut about 6 percent of its workforce of 9,671, or about 580 jobs, in response to slowing sales, after posting a quarterly loss on par with Wall Street expectations.
The company cut its forecast for fiscal 2009 earnings per share excluding special items to a range of $1.00 and $1.40, from a previous range of $1.30 to $1.70. Analysts were expecting $1.45 per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
The forecast proves that even the video game market -- often thought of as "recession-proof" -- may fall victim to a global economic crisis that has forced many companies to scale back their outlook as consumers trim spending.
"We are not saying the sky is falling," Chief Executive John Riccitiello said in a conference call. "What we are bringing to the table is caution, a recognition that catalog (sales are) weaker, and a commitment to managing our cost...with the specter of a recession over our shoulder."
With the economy in mind, analysts questioned EA's adherence to its retail pricing plan, which calls for marquis games like "Madden NFL" to sell for $60 and special editions like the new "Rock Band" bundle, which includes accessories, can go for up to $200.
"For the the rest of us that live in the real world, $60 is a lot of money," said Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey. "The entertainment value is compelling, but it's still a large dollar purchase."
EA posted a net loss of $310 million, or 97 cents, compared with a loss of $195 million, or 62 cents per share, one year ago. Excluding special items, EA showed a loss of 6 cents per share, matching analysts expectations, according to Reuters Estimates.
Last month, EA said it would push the release of the "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" game from November 2008 to next summer, to coincide with a delay in the film of the same name by Warner Bros Pictures.
Chief Financial Officer Eric Brown, when discussing the lowered profit forecast, noted that EA had already paid for development costs for the "Harry Potter" game. He also blamed a "dramatic" strengthening of the dollar for the new outlook.
"We are facing some foreign exchange headwinds," he said in an interview, adding that EA was keeping intact its full-year revenue forecast of $5.0 billion to $5.3 billion.
The company said it would take a charge of about $10 million in the third quarter for the cost-cutting action, and as a result expects to save about $50 million annually.
Net revenue in the second quarter was $894 million, up about 39.7 percent from a year ago.
The company said sales were driven by its major franchises, including "Madden NFL" and new title "Spore."
"There's a lot of reasons to believe that the sector will hold up better than most, if not almost all others, as we move through a recession."
EA shares fell to $23.80 from their Nasdaq close of $27.73. (Reporting by Franklin Paul; editing by Carol Bishopric)

* guardian.co.uk © Guardian News and Media Limited 2008
 

They never have accurate data as to how many copies were sold to consumers- they can only track what the retail stores themselves sold. They can accurately track how many players they have, but does that 800k include all of the players that are active, or the dead accoutns as well?

750k and 800k isn't that far apart to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if they are supposed to be the same number. Like Mark read 771 and said 750k and EA used that number and said 800k.

Go play a game. Any game, any MMO. Stop trying to analyse these reports. Is anyone really interested if WAR had 750,000 subs or 800,000 subs, or even only 100,000 subs?

If you really want to spend your life analysing company reports, why don't you do it to blue chip companies and actually profit from you forecasts of doom or gloom?

Originally posted by Antipopealan

Go play a game. Any game, any MMO. Stop trying to analyse these reports. Is anyone really interested if WAR had 750,000 subs or 800,000 subs, or even only 100,000 subs?

 

If you really want to spend your life analysing company reports, why don't you do it to blue chip companies and actually profit from you forecasts of doom or gloom?

Because their life revolves around another game, or proving to themselves and others that their choice was the right choice.

However I echo your first paragraph and it's advice.

Originally posted by Antipopealan

Go play a game. Any game, any MMO. Stop trying to analyse these reports. Is anyone really interested if WAR had 750,000 subs or 800,000 subs, or even only 100,000 subs?

 

If you really want to spend your life analysing company reports, why don't you do it to blue chip companies and actually profit from you forecasts of doom or gloom?

You were obviously not the kind of kid who loved math in school  :)

Btw, I'm currently playing Tabula Rasa (I won the Exteel contest giveaway on this website and got it for free). I'm actually enjoying myself too, although i know its gonna get too boring for me to renew at the end of the free month

I'm also happily playing a game while posting, is that too difficult for you?

Originally posted by Antipopealan

Go play a game. Any game, any MMO. Stop trying to analyse these reports. Is anyone really interested if WAR had 750,000 subs or 800,000 subs, or even only 100,000 subs?

 

If you really want to spend your life analysing company reports, why don't you do it to blue chip companies and actually profit from you forecasts of doom or gloom?

Well, Antipop, when you are an adult and are trying to build a small investment portfolio from your wages as a janitor, then you too will read.

Originally posted by Myrdek

Originally posted by Antipopealan

Go play a game. Any game, any MMO. Stop trying to analyse these reports. Is anyone really interested if WAR had 750,000 subs or 800,000 subs, or even only 100,000 subs?

 

If you really want to spend your life analysing company reports, why don't you do it to blue chip companies and actually profit from you forecasts of doom or gloom?

 

You were obviously not the kind of kid who loved math in school  :)

Btw, I'm currently playing Tabula Rasa (I won the Exteel contest giveaway on this website and got it for free). I'm actually enjoying myself too, although i know its gonna get too boring for me to renew at the end of the free month

BTW- Mydek, I don't  care what anybody says, you're my fucking hero.

Originally posted by Astralglide

They never have accurate data as to how many copies were sold to consumers- they can only track what the retail stores themselves sold. They can accurately track how many players they have, but does that 800k include all of the players that are active, or the dead accoutns as well?

I would say it's just account created (as the free month started to end last week).

I would be really surprised if the 1.2 million were sold boxed and the 800k are active accounts.  But I tend to think the 1.2m are to retailers, as you pointed out, and 800k are accounts created.

As these reports take some time to make, the number must had been produced one or two weeks ago (probably at the same time or some days after Mark Jacobs said 750k).

So... I tend to believe it's 800k accounts created like 7 or 10 or 12 days ago... just before the first month ended.

It's Activision Blizzards turn on 5th November, lets see if they give actual sub numbers.

Not that I like WoW but it will be an interesting comparison.

Originally posted by Blodpls

It's Activision Blizzards turn on 5th November, lets see if they give actual sub numbers.

Not that I like WoW but it will be an interesting comparison.

Blizzard just announced a few days ago they have reached 11M subscribers.  They didn't break down how many were Asia/NA/EU though.  I'm guessing it's probably the same proportion  3M NA, 2.5M EU 5.5M Asia or something like that.

Blizzard announces their subscribers pretty regularly.  In Jan 08 they announced 10M,  in July they announced 10.7 M (as part of the acquisition announcement).

Some more info from the report:

--------------------------------------

Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning had a strong debut selling 1.2 M copies.

We’re back in the MMO business – with the launch of Warhammer Online. Currently, 800 K people are playing online worldwide. In North America, we have 250 K subscribers in less than two weeks – and are seeing conversions of over 70%. Although it is still early days – we like what we are seeing. In addition, we announced we have Star Wars: The Old Republic MMO under development in EA’s BioWare studio in partnership with Lucas Arts.

-----------------------------------------

Btw, conversion is the same as retention.

Source: investor.ea.com/events.cfm

Originally posted by Keeper2000

Some more info from the report:

--------------------------------------

Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning had a strong debut selling 1.2 M copies.

We’re back in the MMO business – with the launch of Warhammer Online. Currently, 800 K people are playing online worldwide. In North America, we have 250 K subscribers in less than two weeks – and are seeing conversions of over 70%. Although it is still early days – we like what we are seeing. In addition, we announced we have Star Wars: The Old Republic MMO under development in EA’s BioWare studio in partnership with Lucas Arts.

-----------------------------------------

Btw, conversion is the same as retention.

Source: investor.ea.com/events.cfm

Thanks, very useful info

I'm having a hard time figuring out what they actually mean though....

250k subs in less than 2 weeks? I'm guessing they mean actual monthly paying customers since its been almost 2 weeks since the first free month ended

But does that also mean that the 800k is from today too since the 250k is obviously not from 2 weeks ago? If thats true then it would mean that their box sales would be very close to 1 million by now

70% retention rate doesn't seem to make much sense either, I don't disagree with it but if we consider that they had already sold over 500k by september 25th then something is wrong with their sub number.

250k sub out of 500k isn't 70%

I'm guessing that they had many people delayed in the start of their sub because of shipping problems and such at launch, their extended grace period. Otherwise it would mean that their actually lying and that would be illegal

Astralglide: lol, Thanks

What did I do to deserve such high praise? :)

That's a nice find Keeper2000.

I think they mean they have sold 800k boxes of which they have retained 70% as subscribers.

800,000 x 0.7 = 560,000

So they have 250k in North America and another 310k in all other regions.

That pretty good considering the amount of negative publicity on internet forums assuming they haven't massaged those figures too much.

Originally posted by Myrdek

Originally posted by Keeper2000
[EDIT: Taken off so the post is shorter]

Thanks, very useful info 

I'm having a hard time figuring out what they actually mean though....

250k subs in less than 2 weeks? I'm guessing they mean actual monthly paying customers since its been almost 2 weeks since the first free month ended

But does that also mean that the 800k is from today too since the 250k is obviously not from 2 weeks ago?

I will make a guess here.  I think the 800k are active accounts (subs and still free months ones) and its worldwide and not just NA.

70% retention rate doesn't seem to make much sense either, I don't disagree with it but if we consider that they had already sold over 500k by september 25th then something is wrong with their sub number.

250k sub out of 500k isn't 70%

I'm guessing that they had many people delayed in the start of their sub because of shipping problems and such at launch, their extended grace period. Otherwise it would mean that their actually lying and that would be illegal

I dont think they are lying (and, so, doing something illegal).  The numbers are good ones but neither are amazing ones.

Yes, it means 250k paying customers in the NA servers... as the first month doesnt end the same day for everyone, I think they saying they are seeing a 70% of conversion and thats why they said it's still early days.

I think they sold 1,2 millions to retailers, more than 800,000 accounts were created so far and, as the free month is ending, they are seeing a 70% rate of conversion/retention.  They said 2 weeks because the free month started to end last week... these means they sold at least 360,000 in the NA market.

The 500k was worldwide sells. The 70% is NA.

I think they are giving now the US numbers because they cant access directly to GOA numbers and maybe that didnt let them have them for the report (just guessing based in experience).

Originally posted by Keeper2000 

Yes, it means 250k paying customers in the NA servers... as the first month doesnt end the same day for everyone, I think they saying they are seeing a 70% of conversion and thats why they said it's still early days. 

Oh lol, I missed the NA part and I thought it was worldwide :)

Originally posted by Keeper2000

Originally posted by Myrdek

Originally posted by Keeper2000
[EDIT: Taken off so the post is shorter]

Thanks, very useful info 

I'm having a hard time figuring out what they actually mean though....

250k subs in less than 2 weeks? I'm guessing they mean actual monthly paying customers since its been almost 2 weeks since the first free month ended

But does that also mean that the 800k is from today too since the 250k is obviously not from 2 weeks ago?

I will make a guess here.  I think the 800k are active accounts (subs and still free months ones) and its worldwide and not just NA.

70% retention rate doesn't seem to make much sense either, I don't disagree with it but if we consider that they had already sold over 500k by september 25th then something is wrong with their sub number.

250k sub out of 500k isn't 70%

I'm guessing that they had many people delayed in the start of their sub because of shipping problems and such at launch, their extended grace period. Otherwise it would mean that their actually lying and that would be illegal

I dont think they are lying (and, so, doing something illegal).  The numbers are good ones but neither are amazing ones.

Yes, it means 250k paying customers in the NA servers... as the first month doesnt end the same day for everyone, I think they saying they are seeing a 70% of conversion and thats why they said it's still early days.

I think they sold 1,2 millions to retailers, more than 800,000 accounts were created so far and, as the free month is ending, they are seeing a 70% rate of conversion/retention.  They said 2 weeks because the free month started to end last week... these means they sold at least 360,000 in the NA market.

The 500k was worldwide sells. The 70% is NA.

I think they are giving now the US numbers because they cant access directly to GOA numbers and maybe that didnt let them have them for the report (just guessing based in experience).

 

Well, remember GOA gave out 2 weeks free to compensate with all the problems. If my math is right, does that not push the pay/no pay decision point for EU past Sept 30, therefore beyond the scope of the finacial report?

Originally posted by Antipopealan

Go play a game. Any game, any MMO. Stop trying to analyse these reports. Is anyone really interested if WAR had 750,000 subs or 800,000 subs, or even only 100,000 subs?

 

If you really want to spend your life analysing company reports, why don't you do it to blue chip companies and actually profit from you forecasts of doom or gloom?

Yeah.  You're right.  The financial details of MMO companies are totally irrelevant to games and gamers - and they have no place on the boards.

Now, anyone know where I can pre-order Gods & Heros and get a lifetime sub to Hellgate:London? :-|

Originally posted by Gyrus

Originally posted by Antipopealan

Go play a game. Any game, any MMO. Stop trying to analyse these reports. Is anyone really interested if WAR had 750,000 subs or 800,000 subs, or even only 100,000 subs?

 

If you really want to spend your life analysing company reports, why don't you do it to blue chip companies and actually profit from you forecasts of doom or gloom?

Yeah.  You're right.  The financial details of MMO companies are totally irrelevant to games and gamers - and they have no place on the boards.

 

Now, anyone know where I can pre-order Gods & Heros and get a lifetime sub to Hellgate:London? :-|

haha.. pure win!!!

For what it's worth.   The 70% conversion rate is about the industry average (much higher than AOC which had about a 40% rate).

800k accounts created (games sold to customers)
250k accounts in NA resubbed... they probably didn't have data on EU since they got the 2 extra weeks, but based on NA percentages(70%) that would put EU at 310k subs after the renewal date.

And for those Xfire fans.  Both the 250k NA number and the 310K EU number are exactly 1/10 the subscribers as WOW has in those markets (2.5M NA, 3M EU).    This 1/10 ratio is exactly what Xfire was showing right before the WOW 3.0 patch.

- They sent 1.5 million copies to retailers at launch (Retailers must have sent 300k back)

- The 1.2 million can't be copies sold to consumers because by sept 30th they hadn't even sold 750k

No. They sold 1,500,000 units to retailers. Period. You have absolutely no element to disprove that.

To justify your baseless assumptions you come in with an absolutely LAUGHABLE hypotesis about some mysterious 300,000 copies that would have been "sent back by retailers" lol. You demonstrate you don't have the slightest idea about how the chain of videogame retail works. Retailers don't go around sending back unsold copies of a top seller game, expecially not one month after launch and a with the holiday season incoming.

Or maybe you think that they all got together and went "hey, let's send back the copies we have left, so we can let Myrdek throw in his silly theories" :D

Anyway, if simple logic wasn't enough, Mark Jacobs just openly denied that copies have been sent back, so there. 

And by the way, the theory that 1,2 millions can't be copies sold to consumers because they sold 750k by september 30th it's just as much baseless as the rest of your theories. Last week of october Warhammer was still 4th on the NPD sales charts, which means that they had as whole month of sales sitting on the top five of the charts to go from 750000 to 1200000. Totally realistic.

And your card castle topples. More luck next time.

Originally posted by Abriael

- They sent 1.5 million copies to retailers at launch (Retailers must have sent 300k back)

- The 1.2 million can't be copies sold to consumers because by sept 30th they hadn't even sold 750k

 

No. They sold 1,500,000 units to retailers. Period. You have absolutely no element to disprove that.

To justify your baseless assumptions you come in with an absolutely LAUGHABLE hypotesis about some mysterious 300,000 copies that would have been "sent back by retailers" lol. You demonstrate you don't have the slightest idea about how the chain of videogame retail works. Retailers don't go around sending back unsold copies of a top seller game, expecially not one month after launch and a with the holiday season incoming.

Or maybe you think that they all got together and went "hey, let's send back the copies we have left, so we can let Myrdek throw in his silly theories" :D

Anyway, if simple logic wasn't enough, Mark Jacobs just openly denied that copies have been sent back, so there. 

And by the way, the theory that 1,2 millions can't be copies sold to consumers because they sold 750k by september 30th it's just as much baseless as the rest of your theories. Last week of october Warhammer was still 4th on the NPD sales charts, which means that they had as whole month of sales sitting on the top five of the charts to go from 750000 to 1200000. Totally realistic.

And your card castle topples. More luck next time.

Nope it doesn't :)

The 300k sent back was a guess, I don't know how it works I don't work in marketing. I just know that the numbers make no sense

the 1.2 million copies sold is from September 30th, Before the 750k accounts not after

Originally posted by Myrdek

The 300k sent back was a guess, I don't know how it works I don't work in marketing. I just know that the numbers make no sense

 

You see, it's a guess. You actually have no base to call him a liar. Remember in the earning conference and MJ himself said the conversion rate was higher than 70%. They did not say it equal to 70%, yet you made it equal to 70% and call him a liar.

Next itme, chose your word carefully.

Originally posted by Thachsanh 

You see, it's a guess. You actually have no base to call him a liar. Remember in the earning conference and MJ himself said the conversion rate was higher than 70%. They did not say it equal to 70%, yet you made it equal to 70% and call him a liar.

Next itme, chose your word carefully.

Actually hes still lying in the sense that he said that sales had been tremendous. That would imply that their at expection levels or higher, and their not. No one would mention server merges if it was the case. Of course, its not a "real" lie, its just the usual marketing, everything is rosy, stuff :)

But yes, I already backtracked on the 70%, it was my mistake. I didn't pay enough attention to my own statement and didn't see it was 70%+