All Posts by EMortalOne

Originally posted by Mahni

 

Originally posted by apwrsmage

 

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Originally posted by Mahni

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Originally posted by apwrsmage

 

In statistical analysis, depending on what you're doing, the ideal sample size is 150 to 3,000. A sample size in the millions starts to pollute the numbers.

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"Ideal" sample size depends on estimated effect size in the population - there could be cases were a very small effect size posed such a great risk (say a small % increase in aircraft failures) that it would warrant a large sample size to detect it.
But for this case, your point is valid - a sample size of 150 would be enough to detect an effect size of interest (assuming no analysis of higher order interactions).
Larger sample sizes (for example, "in the millions") would not "pollute the numbers" or introduce any type of systematic bias. If you have a large sample (say hundreds of thousands of transaction records, as an example) and you were to fit the *entire* sample with certain techniques (for example, a decision tree algorithm such as CART or CHAID) you could end up with a result that was not *generalizable* due to overfitting, but this would be the fault of the statistician for not using an appropriate validation technique, *not* for having "too much data".
As I said in my previous post, my greatest concerns here are how representative the data is, and with statistical validity. I don't have concerns about power or whether differences are statistically significant.

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Using a sample set in the millions, unless you're dealing with a very straight-forward, black and white situation can introduce a certain amount of random variance that, depending on the situation, can play with power. Or, again depending on the situation, the differences in conclusions from the larger sample size are negligible enough to not warrant the extra effort... say a 20.05% trend versus a 20.03% trend.

Nevertheless, in this situation a control certainly can't be established given the nature of the situation and its uses, but the tool isn't being used for clinical trials, and there are so many possible ways the tool can be used it can't declare a definitive result, it can only show a trend.

Which brings us all back to the original point: A trend. The tool shows the trend of curiosity among those that have used it as to what games and systems they're currently looking for. It seems to me that was the whole point of the tool in the first place. No more, no less.

Sorry for the derail here...

 

Large sample sets do not "introduce" "random variance".  If you are saying large sample sets somehow increase unexplained variance OR variance from individual differences (think error terms in structural equation modeling), they do not.  If you are saying they introduce some form of systematic bias, they do not.  If you are saying that large sample sizes can create a problem due to sampling error, they can but thats a sampling error problem.  As sample sizes go up, confidence intervals go down, whether its a sample size of one hundred or ten million.

Not having a control (group) is irrelevant here.  Descriptives and estimation of population parameters (population mean, variance) can always be done with a sample of the population without a control group.  If you are implying that only "clinical trials" give definitive results, that is incorrect.  Observational or psuedo-experimental designs are just as valid (and in some cases *more* valid as a design) than experimental designs (such as a factorial design including a control group).

When you say "there are so many possible ways the tool can be used...", if you are saying this is not a controlled experiment, I completely agree.  But thats a validity / generalizability issue (that I pointed out in earlier posts).  It doesn't lead me to conclude that this is directional (in your words, a trend), but it does lead me to be *very* hesitant in drawing any conclusions from the data (how respondents use the tool doesn't necessarily translate with what people are looking for from "new" mmos). 

Just to reiterate, I think the tool is great and has a lot of utility.

Originally posted by wicked357

What if Blizzard said the same thing. I bet you would believe them because of them being a solid company.

Of course

Originally posted by wicked357

Whats with all this challenging shit? To the ones who speak as if they know how all AI works and can program AI. Are you an experienced programmer, game designer?

Yes actually I am. I have 12 years 3D programming experience and have worked as a lead for companies like EQ , Blizzard , and sony.

Don't believe me?

Than why the fuck would you believe these guys have some super cutting edge AI that no one else has?

Same difference.

Originally posted by Sam123jo0123

Originally posted by atziluth

 

Originally posted by Aragon100 

 

Well to be honest, what do you know about anything? Your just another boardwriter and Tasos and his crew is making Darkfall. Your knowledge in this matter is very low compared to the state of the art gamedevelopers. Why you pretend having some insight in this matter is above me.

 

Of course you can have some knowledge in making AI but pretending youre knowledge is of such quality that you can make us believe that youre way of discussing this topic will make us trust you and disbelieve Tasos cause you say so is just hillarious. What do you know of 2008 AI and whats possible and whats not? 

All you do is educated guesses just like the rest of us. Game development is progressing each year. So lets wait til we see ingame AI and then judge whose right.=)

 

 

First, I challenge you to find a post of mine where I claimed to be an AI expert. Again you attack me personally instead of refuting any of my observations. The observations I have made are not huge leaps in logic. I DO know something about high end servers and the hardware limit of applications. AI is no different and I have referenced articles on the subject BY industry leaders.

So do not take my word on it, read the articles and make conclusions yourself. I don't understand why my opinion or those of others is such a threat. I am not saying the game is vaporware or promoting any other game. I hope Aventurine delivers, but you have to admit that they are building up the game to unbelievable levels.

I challenge you to find a post where anyone claimed your opinion is a threat.

I challenge you to log into Darkfall online right now and play!

Originally posted by Sam123jo0123

Originally posted by EMortalOne

Originally posted by Aragon100

 Youre a funny one. Youre implying that the boardwriter Atziluth have more knowledge in AI then the Pro:s?

no actually I said that he is just as knowledgeable as the people building Darkfall since there are no state of the art dev's building Darkfall like you alluded too....

You definatily know.

Pretty obvious at this point isn't it?

Originally posted by Aragon100

 Youre a funny one. Youre implying that the boardwriter Atziluth have more knowledge in AI then the Pro:s?

no actually I said that he is just as knowledgeable as the people building Darkfall since there are no state of the art dev's building Darkfall like you alluded too....

Originally posted by Aragon100

 

Your knowledge in this matter is very low compared to the state of the art game developers.

But there are not state of the art game developers building this...   So I guess that would mean they don't know as much as this guy does?

Originally posted by Aragon100

 

Game development is progressing each year

Too bad Darkfall isn't.

I was looking at the overview section and on the right the last bit of news ever posted here was back in June 2007..

wtf??

Originally posted by Muirin

Have most players been spoiled by the recent MMO releases and games in developement by how much info the game gives out while in beta? 

I'am spolied because I'am rich

Originally posted by Deathstrike2

So my question is, did SP1 improve Vista enough to make it the best choice for gamers or should I just stick with XP Pro?

It doesnt improve it.. in fact some say it makes it worse...

But I have Vista Home Premium and I have no problems with anything.

Originally posted by katriell

+1 The Saga of Ryzom

isntt hat cancelled?

this will fail guranteed

Originally posted by Rehab13

Hi there, I'm just wondering if anyone knows when the keys will be delivered? It says wait 4-8 weeks, but that can't be right. The beta would be over by then. If you could shed some light on this I would greatly appreciate it. Thanks!

no clue what this game even is

Originally posted by erikk3189

Is there no etiquette in on-line gaming anymore? I mean, I don't think there was much of it back then but now it seems there's none at all or maybe it's the game itself.

I've just return to on-line gaming after a nearly 3 yr absence. I'm not in any guild so naturally being a level 60 I will get invites. By the way the game in question is WoW.  I just decided to take up their 10 day trial to check out their recent expansion. But in  the 3 days I've been back all the invitations I've gotten to join a guild has been just that, a plain invite. Not once did I get a hello, a would you like to join a guild, nothing.

At times I don't even know if this person is in the same room or place I'm at because nothing was said. I've declined each one without any words. I started to write to tell them thanks but no thanks but then I realize why waste time writing when they didn't themselves.

I don't think it's such a big deal showing some type of courtesy when asking someone to join up. At least this is the way I grew up playing on-line games. I won't say maybe it's because they're kids because I know of kids who are pretty mature. Then again maybe in the 3 yrs I've been gone thinsgs have changed where now no one bothers to speak anymore, I don't know.

What do you guys think?

It depends on what games you play. A game built for kiddies is gonna have a lot more idiots running around

Don't hate on Smed. He makes more money in one day than 99% of you make in a month.

Originally posted by senadin

These days when a game is in development a company has to (or do they?) look at including the solo aspect of gaming. This question will be asked by many of us; Can i solo? What class solo best etc.

 

Now back in my EQ days most classes to the exception of a few could really make soloing a viable option. Most folks had to group to make leveling interesting. Soloing for most classes even tho it COULD be done wasnt the way to go. So i think it would be fair to say that since you HAD to group, the social aspect was more to the forefront. Matter of fact my first guild was a direct result of a group of folks i had met.

 

So my question i ask is this,

 

1- Would the fact that you have to group make you a more social/responsible and ethical player.

For example, would you be friendlier, nicer?

 

After all if you have to group to play efficiently your name should have more value to you as a player. Now i know some folks simply dont care and this really doesnt apply to them. I dont think this is the average anyway.

 

 

Next question is;

Assuming a game is built on a group and solo gameplay is extremely limited, wouldnt that make the community overall better?

 

I am blaming the death of great community in MMO's to this desire to have solo gameplay. Eliminate solo gameplay or make it a slim portion of the game and you should have a MMO with great community.

 

That's my theory!

 

Is it flawed? i dont know, hence why i am asking. Thoughts anyone?

 

No this is complete Bullshit...  Asheron's Call was VERY soloable but yet it had one of the best communities ever....

Originally posted by Lobotomist

Both Blizzplanet and Diablo3.com have countdowns to an event occurring on May 1st.

Could this be it ?!?

 

I would so play it

Originally posted by mbd1968

Is there a website somewhere that displays the number of subs for each MMO? Maybe one that also shows increase/decrease in subs. Just curious as to which MMOs are popular and which aren't, obviously WoW will have the highest numbers.

Lineage 2 I think has the most subscribers in the world

Originally posted by Majestico

Having been away from the MMO-scene for over a year, I returned to hear great things from several free-to-play games.

So with great excitement, I decided to register and download the client for each.  These particular games include the likes of Bamingo (or however it is spelt), 9Dragons, and Maplestory, to name but a few.  I also noticed that RF Online was now free so tried to download that client as well.

After downloading, I could not get any of them to work.

Now I come from UK and was wondering if the reason is because that they are not supported in the Europe area.  Can someone please advise me on this?

It's probably your computer system setup