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All Posts by DragonOak - 289 found

4/14/08 5:35 PM
Viewed 7070, Replies 149

Originally posted by LiquidWolf

 

Damn, I got quoted. 

So here is the problem with your response. You are assuming that the viewer has to care about the accuracy of his data and graphs. Scratch that, I care, but my accuracy requirements are much different than yours it sounds like.  

It is accurate enough for my needs (Which, to be honest, are not many). It succeeds.

Tell that to your dentist the next time he does your brain surgury, he is a scientist after all.

As far as I am concerned it doesn't directly lie outright, but many of the posts mock it and bash the author, who put together a pretty good site in my opinion. In his spare time nonetheless. Come on, the whole site has "reader beware" or "my opinion" all over it.

But, what were you pointing out in quoting my post?  I'm presuming:

"You can beat it all you want but so long as it is the only one, I will watch it, and it will exist and be used."

But can't quite be certain since you basically used my response as fodder for a snide remark. I find that petty and unhelpful. Regardless, I can see a point where I should have stated "It will be watched" rather than "I will watch it." 

"Our species eat the wounded ones" So go ahead and chew on that bone I gave you.

"You people do realize that if the data is faltered and can NOT be correlated by providing evidence of how the data was arrived at, it is inconclusive at best and false data at worse?"

If this was the case, i'm fairly certain multiple MMO companies would have contact Sir Bruce to either pull the site down, correct it, or they would have released statements of their own to combat such dangerous info. Particularly from the press, hits, or even this topic. From what it sounds like, many companies are actually trying to promote his efforts. Perhaps they feel he is inflating things to their benefit. But in the end it is reader beware, this is the internet.

Your post (particularly at "Wow! And this generation") suggests you are older than me or possibly my superior, but you do not demonstrate it this time. Particularly with your jab at me.

Either his data sources, or his lack of a resume (since you asked for his credentials) doesn't fit your standards. Problem is, i'm fairly certain this is one of those times where it is your problem, not his.

Long post to defend unverified data.  So the ends justify the means? Be very careful, that kind of logic supports genocide, racism, and a whole bunch of other negative behavior traits.

4/14/08 5:31 PM
Viewed 7070, Replies 149

 

Originally posted by SirBruce

No, I don't have a degree in such things, nor is one required in order to do industry analysis and reporting.  Bill Gates didn't have a degree in engineering or business, either.

Bruce

 

 

No, but to sound like an old folk, you should know better.  You do have a degree, and you should know that if you are going to use unsubstantiated data, unverifiable data, and "unrevealed" sources your methods will be questioned by those that know better.

I start to question your need to hide your sources, and I wonder if it is all about the following rather than the data.  While a degree may NOT be REQUIRED, a degree does validate the person doing the analysis.

But really I don't know why I am here, because secretly I hope Turbine's LoTRO numbers stay low but profitable.  I mean your biased statements alone make me glad you are busy in other places.  Because this is the best MMO community I have found in the 7+ MMO's I have played.  I do not want the fad crowd to find the game and screw it up for a rather pleasant community.  So for me it is self serving for you to use biased and unsubstantiated numbers in this case. 

Thanks!!

4/14/08 4:25 PM
Viewed 7070, Replies 149

 

Originally posted by LiquidWolf

 

This is a good point, I have found NOTHING else on the web that does the same thing. You can beat it all you want but so long as it is the only one, I will watch it, and it will exist and be used. 

I've always found that looking at server lists and population status (low/medium/high) is a good way to tell how well something is doing.

Granted, you need a general understandin of what "HIGH/FULL" means, but it does help.

I'll judge the a-hole critics here as people who just want to prove someone wrong, and can't let it go. Much like Darwa's initial post: He rates MMORPG so low but still comes by here to make a post.

 

Wow!  And this generation is supposed to bring about social change based on logic that is setting a precedent over previous generations.

You people do realize that if the data is faltered and can NOT be correlated by providing evidence of how the data was arrived at, it is inconclusive at best and false data at worse?  If pharmaceutical companies approached research like this I sure wouldn't even want to take over the counter medicine.

For the sake of argument, I would like to ask Sir Bruce what level of education he has concerning business, statistics, and methods of research?  This is not an attack, it is merely a question because honestly I do not know.  But I think it is important in order to be taken legitimately as an analyst you at least have some background in data gathering, statistical modeling, and business research.  This is one of those times education is important.

 

EDIT:  NM I found your WiKi entry and while you have a degree, which is good, I see that you are NOT trained in statistics, business analysis, business research, or any other business for that matter.  Physics, computer science, and philosophy (btw I am impressed), are not business or statistical methods concerning business, although you should be aware of scientific methods of study based on your physics trainings.  And based on that you should be aware of why there are criticisms with your analysis of anonymous data sources and the lack of verifiable date.  Just because you say it is does not mean the rest of the educated community will accept that it is.

4/14/08 3:06 PM
Viewed 7070, Replies 149

Praise Jesus!......Hallelujah!!!.......I have seen the light.............now as we all wait for the smoke stack.............................

4/14/08 2:19 PM
Viewed 7070, Replies 149

Sir Bruce's data is a "fun" read, and may be used to denote trends, but his chart is much like religion........unverifiable, with unrevealed sources it is easy to set oneself up as the expert (see the pope), and in the end because only one "speaker" tells the masses what is and what is not, it becomes a cult in its own right.

4/14/08 1:56 PM
Viewed 3154, Replies 83

Originally posted by logicbox9

 

More solo content = /snooze

 

 

So many people stress how important it is to have a kin in this game, and how fun it is because of their kin... yet they want more solo content?

I don't think it is as simple as people just wanting more solo content as much as wanting quality content.   Meaning people want their time on the game to be rewarding and constructive. 

MOST people don't have 4+ hours a day to dedicate to a game, so when they can only log on for an hour they want that time to be able to complete a task, goal, quest, craft, etc.  They do NOT want to spend that hour looking for a group, farming ultra rare resources, or attempting to organize a raid (impossible in one hour), so they seek quality time in the game.  If raiding, grouping, instances, farming, travel can be done effectively in the one hour you would see more people jumping on board for those types of functions.  But where the developers get confused (IMHO) is that they infer that this means solo time, when in reality it means more effective grouping, etc.

4/14/08 1:50 PM
Viewed 3154, Replies 83

I always get concerned when any game or corporation switches focus to a specific consumer type.  I am not saying Turbine has done this completely......yet, but I am concerned.

The one strength I see in LoTRO is that all current types of gaming are fairly well balanced so that if people choose they can focus on what they like.  PvP, PvE, grouping, solo, raiding, crafting, exploring, music, hopefully fishing will work nicely, etc.  Game after game that focuses on one dynamic over another tends to alienate the other types of gamers, contrary to what the PvP'ers would like the gaming world to believe.

4/13/08 11:02 PM
Viewed 3594, Replies 78

Originally posted by KorovaMB

 

Unfortunately, you continue to bore, so this will be my last post on the matter. 

 

/em waves adios.  Sorry if you feel that way, your opinions are your opinions, but they do not necessarily convey the mainstream even though you would like to think so.

It is not an issue of not feeling my points are invalid, but rather that there is no debate here. 

I often here that from those that make disputed points.  You feel there is no debate here because I don't bow down and say "KorovaMB is da bomb!"  You points have been disputed, and the answer for you is that there is no debate.

I posted the market share of LOTRO, with my source clearly identified. 

A source that has been called into question by many people, not just myself.

You asked about other games, so I used the same source and responded with the number there. 

Again you use a source that is not considered nuetral by both parties and then say it is fact.  Reminds me of watching Fox News.

Then you just claim the numbers are made up.  If you were not going to accept the numbers from that source, then why ask about other games when I had already clearly identified the source?

And again based on my own personal experience, I clearly refuted one of those numbers.  I was playing in the fall of 2001 when EQ announced they had broken 100k subscriptions.  Yet your numbers say it was 400k yet you don't see a problem.  I was there then........so that devalidates a lot of those numbers in my mind even more than before.

The reality is that you have your opinion, and will not change it no matter what I express, no matter what numbers I quote, etc. 

Not on the PvP issue, I am arrogant, biased, opinionated, and totally stubborn on this.  I have seen too many games ruined because the minority demanded changes only because they screamed the loudest.  Yet I see that you yourself are a compromising, open minded, middle of the road kind of person (yes that was sarcasm).  Remember you have three fingers pointing back when you tell me how I wont give on this issue.

Yet you have not numbers or facts that you yourself will present.

No numbers required. 

1.  Tolkien Enterprises extended the IP agreement with Turbine until 2014 with option to 2017, that shows someone is making a profit.  TE has been very ingenious about making this IP work, and part of that is by restricting how the story line is to be utilized by its licensure.

2.  New players entering the game in large numbers.  Don't believe me?  Do the trial account, and take a poll of new players, it will shock you.

3.  Turbine announced the release of expansion number one.  That shows profitability right there.  How many companies are willing to invest more money into a losing franchise?  Well other than SOE anyway!

4.  I really find it amazing how you make all these assumptions based on a game you never have played.........but then I see who we in the US has as a president and realize anything is possible.

 

 

4/13/08 10:37 PM
Viewed 3594, Replies 78

Originally posted by KorovaMB

 

You dispute the numbers I have given, yet offer none of your own.  While the numbers from MMOGChart are not 100%, with accuracy levels that can vary from game to game, they are the only numbers we have to work with.  If the game was such a huge success, don't you think Turbine would publish sub numbers, rather than obscure numbers such as number of characters created?

 

Just because a set of numbers don't serve your point doesn't mean they must be inaccurate.

Oh No Yu Ddnt!!!!!!  Be sure to stay tuned in, I can assure you a far more articulate and relative response is forth coming than I could ever provide.

4/13/08 10:33 PM
Viewed 3594, Replies 78

Originally posted by KorovaMB

 

You are beginning to bore me, but since you asked....

 

 

I am truly sorry that my time here did not entertain you...........I used to do that for my children when they were little..........but I often see people become bored after their points are debated and they "lose interest" because their points are not always valid.

1. As a baseline, the charts show LOTRO peaking at 200k subs, with a current number of approx 150k subs.

Hypothetical numbers since Turbine doesn't release those numbers.  And there are plenty of debates on how "valid" Sir Bruces data really is.

2. SWG hit 300k subs just after launch, and stayed above 250k until just before the NGE.  Keep in mind that this would have represented a larger market share, as the market size was much smaller then.  Also, LA was unhappy with the sub level, and is part of why I say a realistic expectation for a Tolkein IP would be much higher than what Turbine has actually achieved.

Ok those numbers that SOE tends to lump in all its Station pass subs for each and every game.  So one person with Station Pass will count for all games on the pass whether they play them or not.  SOE is known for fudging numbers.  Your comments about LA is open for debate, once again I refer readers to the SWG Veterans boards, and like most of what you have debated here, it is only a hypothesis.  It is necessary to differ the two, because you tend to elude your opinions and beliefs as being pure facts.  But once again, we know Turbines numbers are growing, new people playing, expansions announced, and IP agreement was extended.  Those prove the game is profitible and have growth potential.

3. UO had a slower climb, but achieved 200k subs around July 2000, and stayed above that level into 2004.

Again Sir Bruce's numbers are not validated since his sources are secret, and at best they are guesses.  I mean lets call up NCSoft or any other MMO company for that matter and see what they say there subscription numbers are, I am sure they will give us a complete and accurate numbers that are not hyped in the slightest.

4. EQ broke 400k in 2001, and stayed above that line until into 2005.

Ummm I played in 2001 and I vividly remember them announcing they broke 100k.  Again you are referring to numbers that can NOT be validated or for that matter proven.

5. Matrix Online - Are you kidding?!?  The strength of this IP is not even in the same league as LOTR or Star Wars.

Sigh it is an IP none the less, that had a HUGE box office response.  I guess you missed the show then.  The point is as an IP is failed to, so your hype that an IP should preform better I counter with proof of those that didnt.

 

I hope I didn't bore you this round, and if I did, maybe a slinky and silly putty may do the trick.

 

 

 

4/13/08 10:17 PM
Viewed 3594, Replies 78

Originally posted by tkreep


War is war, who said there are rules. kill your enemy before they see you is the best tactical choice.Your suppose to cheat as much as you can in war.  But I never brag about it.

And with my hand extended as to salute......palm down.........I hear the sound as if a train looms in the distance............neeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee..........................wooooooooowwwwwwwwwwww as the palm of my hand misses the top of my head racing by................

I think you missed the point.

4/13/08 10:11 PM
Viewed 3594, Replies 78

Originally posted by KorovaMB
Originally posted by DragonOak
Originally posted by KorovaMB

 

So, if I understand your argument correctly, you are saying that when you get hit by a mob's sword, you take no actual damage, but just become demoralized?  That is in keeping with the books?  I must not have caught that detail in Tolkein's writings.

Maybe you need to not only read the books again but play the game?  I mean how do you formulate an opinion based on lack of knowledge about the game mechanics and how the play is?  And please don't do the "I logged on 10 months ago for 10 minutes and decided the game SuXXors" claim.  I mean you should articulate by having actually knowledge.  The detail you missed in Tolkien's writings is about the battle of good versus evil and how good will prevail.  Tolkien wrote the book for children during and after his experiences in  WW1.  Try to understand the story please.

My paragraph above doesn't refer to the game, but rather the movies.  Not sure how I could have made that clearer.

But since we are talking MMO's perhaps the reference is valid?

Here I am refering to the game, so I'm glad you caught that.  As to the game being a disaster, you should talk to people who played the game.  The game did not become a "disaster" until a couple years in.  The issues that the game had originally, and later on when it did become a "disaster" had nothing to do with players being allowed to play Imperials, so my point still stands.

So what are the current subscription numbers again, and while they are flooring out (read the SWG boards here for more info) Turbines numbers are on the rise.  I mean it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the company must be making a profit since it did announce an expansion.

 

 

I agree.  We each have our opinion, and neither of us is alone in it.

Excuse me I need to give Satan a quick call and check on the status of Hell.

My original point in my original post was not about "what colda, shoulda, woulda", you took the conversation there.  My point was "what was going to be".  My point was based on numerous posts on the MEO boards by developers from Vivendi and Turbine.

But you post was "coulda, shoulda, woulda".........because it is not MEO nor is Vivendi involved in any way.  So what was the point again?

 

 

 

4/13/08 10:03 PM
Viewed 3594, Replies 78

Originally posted by KorovaMB
Originally posted by WSIMike
Originally posted by KorovaMB
Originally posted by DragonOak

So the fact that it could be worse makes it ok that a game based on such a strong IP has weak sub numbers?  Most successful people in the business world are that way because they are willing to risk failure to achieve greatness.  Rarely does taking the safe route pay off.

Wait... Who says it has weak numbers? No one even *knows* with any reliability what LoTRO's numbers are.


You're not the first one to come in there with these baseless, unspecific claims, of what "LoTRO's population should be". You're also not the first to claim that it having world PvP would guarantee a substantial boon to its population.

Been there. Debated that. Buried the horse.

 

 

 


I look at MMOGCHART, where it shows LOTRO with a 0.9% market share.  I would have expected that the IP that was an important inspiration to so much of the Fantasy market would capture a larger market share than that.  Even assuming Sir Bruce has the number wrong by half, a 1.8% market share with such a strong IP is embarrasing.

And SWG is?  How about EQ or UO the parents of MMO's as we know it today?  Matrix Online?  And how many games with IP's out there?  And if you watch closely people are tiring of WoW and moving so expect a shift.

Most companies are smart enough to know that Blizzard brings them in and once they tire of WoW they will move on. 

4/13/08 9:17 PM
Viewed 3594, Replies 78

Originally posted by WSIMike

 

Wait... Hold the phone...

You've actually seen a ganker get ganked themself? Shoot. In my experience, the ganker is usually either quitting out of the game or running away at the first sight of someone who might actually beat them... like the cowards they are.

 

I wanna see a screen-shot of that.

 

Actually my experience in WoW is that they are the first to scream on the forums for nerfs, crying how some other class than their own is "overpowered".  These are often the same peeps that take cheap shots on PvP servers, like wait till someone is battling an NPC and their health is down before they attack.

And for the record KorovaMB, I play WoW, I pvp regularly.  I have one character in full pvp gear, and two that are nearly half suited in pvp gear.  I like WoW pvp to a point, it is different and fluid.  And since there are alternatives for PvP MMO's why the need to turn every single MMO out turn into some gank feast epeen compitition?  I like LoTRO, and I have seen way too many game succomb to the crys of a few because some marketing VP THINKS it will bring more business in.  Please Turbine, don't change it into a all out PvP game!!

4/13/08 9:10 PM
Viewed 3594, Replies 78

Originally posted by KorovaMB

 


Your argument is flawed though.  There is a difference between telling a story and creating a fun game.  In a story, it is important to make your readers empathize with the main characters.  To do this, you can't make the "evil" characters in such a way that the readers might empathise with them.  That can create issues in a game, and thus adaptions are frequently made.  This applies to a variety of game mechanics.  For instance, Boromir was killed at the tail end of Fellowship.  Yet in game, killed players respawn.  Does that make the game incongruous with Tolkien's vision?

No because the game is based on Morale, not hit points or life points.  When your morale runs out you are defeated.  And when you are defeated a little box pops up that you live again to fight another day.  So then your logic is flawed on the game mechanic.  As to making evil characters personable it is done by other writers all the time, Stephen King and Anne Rice come to mind.

To use your example, but from another IP, George Lucas created Stormtroopers and Darth Vader with helmets and masks.  A key reason was to de-humanize them.  This helped the movie-goer empathize with the main characters without cluttering their emotions by making them feel for the slaughtered stormtroopers.  Likewise, ST's were shown having little or no free thought.  They followed orders like lambs to the slaughter.

Oh ya lets use that example of a completly failed game with three revamps and a customer base that is nil and deserted servers.

Yet when SWG was launched, players could play Imperials (complete with ST armor).  The game focused around the GCW (although the implementation was not all it could be).  Had the game allowed for Rebel only play, it would have been disastrous and caused the game to feel extremely disconnected from the movies.

It pretty much is disastrous so we are hypothocating once again.  Using a failed game is not a real good to get your point across.

Thus, pvp and evil races could have been implemented without causing the game to feel like it had abandoned Tolkein. 

And the sad fact is, that based on current customers that ENJOY the game, and a large percentage of those that actually read his books, we in a huge majority disagree.  But it is your right to have an opinion just as it is our right to have ours.

Bottom line, when converting from one medium to another (book to video game) some changes are necessary to convey the story although it may break from a pure literal translation.

Unless of course you have a situation like this one.  Tolkien Enterprises controls the IP, but based on the contract when the rights were sold in the 70's there is set standard of performance and guidelines on how the story can be utilized.  If they go outside that agreement the Tolkien family can sue and have the rights returned to them.  It is the perfect system of checks and balances.  So while you can hypothocate what coulda, shoulda, woulda..........we have what is!

 

4/13/08 8:51 PM
Viewed 3594, Replies 78

Originally posted by KorovaMB

 

I always find humor in people who feel threatened when someone posts with a "pro-pvp" comment.  You are getting defensive, throwing out such well documented numbers like "...20 percent of those that rank PvP as being the most important reason for playing MMO's". 
Those numbers are base on the polls from this very site.  I always find it cute how that 20 percent feel that any game MUST have total pvp to survive, when in fact it tends to drive more people away than keep.  Not to mention the constant merry go round of balancing updates required because the gankers got ganked and it was unfair!

 

Of course you should probably consider that (assuming your stat to be accurate even though undocumented) of the remaining 80%, there is a percentage that would value "world" pvp, even though it may not be the most important reason for them.

And again read the polls and the recent numbers posted on this issue on this site.  But for you and others LoTRO made accomodations and created PvMP, but that is not good enough.  I get the feeling is the only thing that will ever be good enough for these PvP'ers is that all out, full looting, griefing of lowbies will be the only acceptable PvP for them.  But then again look at those games that do, or those that provide servers that do.  Low populations and deserted servers are the result.

Perhaps had Turbine implemented it, then their subs would be at a more appropriate level for a game based on an IP with one of the largest and most loyal fanbases.

Perhaps had Turbine implemented it, the game would totally suck balls and have 1/10 the population there is now.

Just my 2 cents.....

 Just my 2 cents......