Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by Thachsanh

Why so hung up on the 1.7 million subscribers. I just noticed something from a updated on Darth Hater.

http://www.darthhater.com/articles/swtor-news/19915-electronic-arts-q3-fy12-earnings-call

Key Statistics:

• 2,000,000+ copies sold – 40% sold through Origin
• 1,700,000+ active subscribers – 1 million concurrent
• Average session time was four hours during the first month and a half
• 99.5% Server Uptime

 

Did anyone see it? 1 million concurrent players. That number deserves a "holy shit" on its own. If someone has not worked in a F2P sector before or has not familiar with the Asian MMO market may not notice how impressive that number is.

 

That number is so much more impressive than the 1.7 millions subscribers. Much much more. As in not many MMO in the world can manage to pull that number.

 

Lineage, Lineage 2 and AION while very big did not manage to pull that number in ANY of their release market. There are a few that I could verify that manage to pull that number. Zengtu, Westward Journey, and World of Warcraft manage to pull that number in China market. World of Warcraft China did it when at peak and has not been able to do that ever since.

 

This is the first time ever I see a Western MMO in a Western market manage to pull that number. Everyone, this is a world first. Heheh.

 

1 million PCU in Western market.

 

Congratulations!!!

Where does the 1 million concurrent come from? It was announced that SW:TOR has 1 million unique logins PER DAY. That does NOT mean it is concurrent which would mean that all those 1 million would be logged on during the entire day which for sure is not the case.

I think those guys at Darth Hater miss understood the number. I have gone through the earning call carefully and I think they did miss-undertand it.

But yeah, heheh, that number shocked me a whole lot more than 1.7 millions subscribers.

Why so hung up on the 1.7 million subscribers. I just noticed something from a updated on Darth Hater.

http://www.darthhater.com/articles/swtor-news/19915-electronic-arts-q3-fy12-earnings-call

Key Statistics:

• 2,000,000+ copies sold – 40% sold through Origin
• 1,700,000+ active subscribers – 1 million concurrent
• Average session time was four hours during the first month and a half
• 99.5% Server Uptime

Originally posted by Vhaln

Originally posted by Gorilla

Originally posted by Vhaln

Originally posted by Sector13

Originally posted by Vhaln

 

Did you read the actual legal document?  It doesn't even say anything about code.  What they're being accused of stealing is more conceptual.. and that's ridiculous.

Did you read the fact that they already lost the court battle in SK? Doesn't matter what you think is ridiculous or not. Simple facts are simple. They know what they did was wrong, did it anyway, lost the court case and kept going with it anyway. Don't blame NCsoft, blame BHS and EME for it. They knew, they didn't care.

Ok, I'll take back the opinion about it being ridiculous, but why so riled up about it?  You seem awfully aggressive about your stance, there...

Because they are criminals? It would seem that this was planned and executed whilst they work working at NCsoft.

 

Are you sure?  Just because that's how NCSoft chose to spin the situation?  I haven't seen anything resembling evidence of that, or even specifics as to what they stole.  Just a document that comes off more like vindictive hyperbole than anything else.

Actually, if you read the complain they filed, it stated that the Korean police the a list of file that they were taken from NCSoft offices using portable storage devices. They even have a BHS internal memo instructing how to deal with those assets. They have ex-NCSoft developers now work for BHS admitted to the police that they stole stuffs from NCSoft.

And BHS lost the criminal court twice already. BHS founder is in jail. Heh, what more do you need?

There's no doubt that BHS stole a lot from Lineage 3 project. But that will be resolved in criminal case.

What interested me is how can NCSoft prove to the US court that TERA is using Lineage 3 project assets. It's not easy to do so. That's why the fight is still going on in Korea. We will see how it goes in the US though.

Originally posted by mudd4ever

Well this just sucks.

I have to admit I didn't know the full extent of this.  That being said, I don't think I could support TERA with a clear conscience if these allegations are true.  /sadface

Well, there's little doubt that Bluehole employees or ex-NCSoft employees stole from NCSoft L3 project. There are pretty hard evidences of that including list of files that were taken from NCSoft office by the ex-employees using portable storages. They even have an internal memo of Bluehole regarding those assets. That's why NCSoft won in criminal court and the founder of Bluehole put to jail.

Now, the interesting thing is they have to prove that Bluehole used those assets in TERA which they apparently could for the Korean court. If they could do the same here in the US court, that will be a pretty grim future for the US version of TERA.

Originally posted by Draemos

Bioware doesn't really have a good history with crafting game engines.  Almost every engine they've had up until ME2 was total trash.

I beg to differ on this one. Infinity Engine was awesome. Aurora Engine was very good as well.

Originally posted by Teala

Originally posted by BadSpock

I do find it funny that people think the SWTOR worlds were designed without day/night cycle and weather because they were limited by the Hero engine.

Not. At. All. True.

You are right the Hero Engine can do day and night cycles and even have weather effects.  Bioware chose to not use them.  They baked on hard shadows and decided to not have day and night.   They threw out the random weather effects and now have statci effects(it will always rain in that one certain spot).

Bioware chose to be lazy and they just didn't care.

I don't think they are being lazy. For story telling purposes, each planet will need their own weather effects and day and night cycle. A rain in Dromund Kaas has to be different from a rain in Alderaan. Day and night has to be different too because of different planet setting. Remember, this is space, some planets has 2 - 3 suns, several moons. Unlike a fantasy setting where you can just assume earth planet setup.

That, I think, is what beyond Hero Engine capability. So, if you cannot do it right, don't do it at all or you will ruin your environment feeling. That's the main reason I think why Bioware did not do it.

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by nikoliath

Originally posted by MikeB

Originally posted by Quesa

Originally posted by Caldrin

Originally posted by JeroKane

 

[snip]

Then its the version of the hero engine they use as its a very early one.

In its current state Hero engine has a full day/night, cycle, weather effects at a click of a button and many other features.

 

Which SWTOR doesn't seem to have, aside from static weather zones.

Just going to jump in here and chime on this particular issue. The Old Republic doesn't have full day/night cycle as a deliberate world design decision. Just because an engine can do something doesn't mean the developer actually wants to use it.

I brought this question up to Daniel Erickson when I was out there last April. The worlds were designed such as to establish a certain mood and personality. For example, the dark and foreboding world of Dromund Kaas. Controlling the lighting, shadowing, etc. was important in accomplishing this goal according to them.

It's a themepark game, the rides are designed very deliberately. Dromund Kaas wouldn't be the same were it awash with sunlight and rainbows.

If only everyone could understand that essential point. Control over their world, work and presentation!

Why would that not be achievable with a licensed engine like CryEngine 3 or Unreal Engine 3?

For me the question is not why they did not create an engine from the ground up but rather why they did not use other licensed award winning engines like the ones I mentioned. I think both the quality and performance would be better if they did.

Just look at ArcheAge, it uses CryEngine 3 and it simply looks amazing. Same with TERA and their use of Unreal Engine 3. I mean even Mass Effect 3 uses Unreal Engine 3 so why not SW:TOR? Maybe it was for budget reasons but I still dont get the decision.

What you have not mentioned is that both XLGames and Bluehole already inherited the knowledge of how to modify the Unreal Engine for an MMO. Remember these studios have people at one time working for NCSoft on Lineage 2 project and Aion project which also using Unreal Engine 2.5 and CryEngine. Remember how long it takes for NCSoft to gain these knowledge from Lineage to Lineage 2 and from Lineage 2 to AION.

Just because Bioware used Unreal Engine 3 in Mass Effect does not mean that they can use it in an MMO. Unreal Engine 3 to Bioware is just another rendering engine because they have to develop everything else from scratch anyway. In that respect, the Hero engine is probably better since it already has the net code and the server architecture develop for an MMO.

Originally posted by Ringbus

Putting aside the state of the source code and capabilities Bioware got when they started on this game and focusing just on what they have delivered compared to other companies with lesser budgets. Bioware has shown gross incompetence compared to their competitors like Blizzard.

Bioware could have started with nothing, the junk Hero stuff, a Hello World program, an actuarial program. It doesn't matter. Any competent game developer would have:

* Broken down their competitor's battle system, network performance,graphics features,graphics performance on a wide range of target systems,how many players per server/zone/world,etc

* Set those as benchmarks for their own code base at a minimum

* Create test cases that demonstrate their own codebase meeting or exceeding those benchmarks long before any real work started on the project's content and design

* Continue to use thoses tests as the project is developed over the years to guarantee that there are no regressions on the original goals and benchmarks for the game

* If at the start or at any point those early performance and design benchmarks can't be met in relation to the competiton, bring on software engineers that are able to do so. If Blizzard engineers are able to do something, a project with a 100,200 million budget can easily find and hire people to do the same.

The various ability delay or combat system design flaws, the almost random performance problems, the pulling of the high detail materials late in project all point to Bioware struggling with a codebase they don't understand, don't have people internally who know how to fix or replace, and not showing the maturity to admit they needed to bring on people who had they skills they internally lacked.

These problems SWTOR has aren't the usual bugs that all MMORPGs have. These are fundamental design flaws that any comptent developer would have solved and locked down years ago.

 

These sounds like you are just copy and paste from a software engineering text book somewhere. They sound really good in theory but night impossible to do in real world. It all bases on one big ass assumption that you somehow know how your software will react in the real world situation. It's not that simple like you make it to be. There's no way to predict this information with synthetic benchmark. Company with an established MMO do have these kind of information but they guard these information like their own eyes. No body in the industry can obtain these kind of information except they have done it before (has released an MMO before). Even for company that did run an MMO before sometime still glueless because the new MMO they have use a different tech. If you are a developer that has worked on an MMO project before, you will know what I am talking about.

It's just easier said than done. Also, to your knowledge, Blizzard was not that much better than Bioware when they released WoW. The reason is also simple, they also have never had an MMO before so they don't know how their software and system would react to real world situation. You think Blizzard is competence now, but back then, no less than many forum full of people think that for a company as big as Blizzard, they just didn't know what the hell they were doing. I also remember several "offers" from community "Oracle database experts" to help Blizzard solve their problem. That gives me a chuckle everytime I think about it. But the think is, they actually did not know what they hell they were doing back then because it was their first time also. It's not because their engineers were not competent, they just did know what to expect and how would their system behaved. They did end up changing a lot of their back-end though.

Originally posted by Loke666

Couldn't they had said how many Concurrent players Wow had as well at the same time?

Without comparisions any number is just useless info.

Let me do an estimate comparison for you. I don't have the most updated number but from an old number back when WoW China still under The9 management shown that WoW China has roughly 1 million PCU. I remember this quite clearly because they did celebrate that milestone. That was the same time frame that WoW had 12 million subscribers.

We know that WoW China's sub is about 2/3 of WoW's total sub. So, a rough estimate would point out that WoW Western had about 500K PCU at that time. Now, since WoW nolonger has 12 million sub and a lot of the sub lost are from the Western market as WoW China just annouced growth recently, I would say WoW on the Western market now proably has around 400K PCU may be lower.

So, there you have it, SWTOR - 350K PCU vs WoW - 400K PCU. Heheh, at this point, on the western market, SWTOR is not that far behind from WoW as you may thought. :) Of course, SWTOR is still in its free month so, who know what would happen. I just want to put this number is perspective so people don't just look at 350K PCU and said "SWTOR failed". Heheh, far from it. At this moment, SWTOR has just as many player as WoW on the western market.

Originally posted by Daffid011

First:  this isn't a case where 1 party is guilty and the other is some absolved of responsibility.

Hackers exist and are trying to break into servers all around the world.  That is a fact.  It is the responsibility of a company to do everything in their power to prevent that.  SOE did not do that, also a fact.  

SOE took down their servers when the playstation network was hacked.  They knew the Sony network was under attack, that there was a flaw in the security (obviously).  So they "reviewed" their status and considered things safe enough to put back online.  Sure enough SOE was then hacked. 

What was the first statement that soe made to players in RESPONSE to being hacked?  

"Quickly taken steps to enhance security and strengthen our network infrastructure to provide you with greater protection of your personal information."

and

"Engaged an outside, recognized security firm to conduct a full and complete investigation into what happened"

 

Source

 

Soe waited until after they were hacked to do their job.  It is really that simple.  They share the blame for not doing what was needed, even when they had advance wanring that hackers were targetting their servers. 

 

Actually, you are wrong. Read the press release and the recent interview carefully. Sony DID NOT get hacked twice. They only got hacked once. They brought their server down the second time not because they got hacked again but because they investigated and found out that their data were stolen, which they did not know at first due to the hacker covered their track very well.

It's not that I am saying that they are not to blame to get hacked but saying they got hacked, do nothing until they got hacked again is not true.

Originally posted by SnarkRitter

*Sigh*So you want me to search it for you too?Fine:

http://www.ffxivcore.com/topic/27063-unhealthy-server-pouplation-should-i-keep-going/page__hl__population

http://www.ffxivcore.com/topic/26429-server-population/page__p__408149__hl__population__fromsearch__1#entry408149

Not to mention the numbers in post in other non-population related threads but tt's almost midnight here and I'm really tired.....

You seem to just search, copy and paste without much aware of the contents. Those are just general observations. People point out that the server population drop, which is true. But those are inaccurate, conflicted and does not provide enough concrete number with time stamp. For example, one guy said "Besaid used to avg 2000+ up til a week and a half ago. Now it's 1400" later on in that same thread somebody else post "Besaid at 9:28pm PDT - 1,974". Again, these are no proof that NA and EU population drop harder than the JP population.

Oh my,you haven't looked at the charts or are you that denial?And please show me your proof that all the numbers come from the same source.

Look at 11/25, 11/11, 10/21, 10/14, 10/7, 9/30 column in this chart

http://img1.sankakustatic.com/wp-content/gallery/safe-misc-viii/ff-14-player-numbers-1.png

And compare with the same column in this chart

http://minus-k.com/nejitsu/loader/up82484.png

They are exactly the same on every server. If these 2 charts were from 2 different sources, that's not possible.

Anyway, this has drag on long enough and frankly, despite all the efforts, you just cannot come up with any concrete evidence to prove your point.

Originally posted by SnarkRitter

You remind me of creationists.

So your want SE themselves to make an official statement that the game population at Japanese peak time has dropped from 42k to 22k even when the game is still in free trial? I hope you're smart enough to realize that  SE is definitely not stupid enough to do that as it'll make their game looks even worse and drives more people to quit. And drop from where to where? If you search the server population related threads at launch till 2 weeks after launch on FF XIV forums you'd know that the average NA and EU servers population is 1500-3000 at peak times,I'd like to search it for you but unfortunately the threads are buried deep in the forums(obviously) and I've just finished my gym time so I'm quite tired.About the charts,as I've stated,the 3 charts are quite similar,and there's only one popularly accepted peak hour. Apparently the makers of these charts accidently choose the exact non-peak hour to make their chart, what a coincidence!

Once again,I advice you to use your common sense.

Do you even know what creationist means? So, in the end, you got nothing.

You said "NA and EU population drop harder than the JP population", I ask "prove it".

You said go search forum to see the server populations are pretty low and made up some numbers like 800 max on the most populated realms to make it sounds really bad.

I said that does not prove NA and EU population drop harder than the JP population. You said go search the forum again for some imaginary numbers and those threads are buried deep and probably not possible to find. Otherwise use common sense.

What kind of proof is that?

And those charts are not similar. They are the same. Their numbers come from the same source. And there's no one popularity accepted peak hour. Prime time is from 7pm to 10pm usually and that's 3 freaking hours long.

Originally posted by SnarkRitter

When people make chart about a MMORPG population they make the chart according to the peak HOUR of the servers which is the same hour everyday. Nobody is going to watch the server 24/24 to find out the server's population absolute peak . I advice you to use common sense, and shouldn't use the strawman approach.

Your knowledge have a big hole in it. Do you even know what peak hours mean? There is no one peak HOUR. Prime time is a period of time which last several hours each day. There is no one fix peak HOUR. Moreover, do you even understand what I was trying to say? Why are you trying to explain to me what peak HOUR mean? Go back and read carefully what I was saying. In case that you are just can't not understand it, I will say it slowly to you one more time. There is no thing on the chart saying how they came up with the chart nor what kind of population (average, peak....) that is. You said when people make chart about MMORPG population they make the chart according to the peak hours. That's your assumption. They said no such thing. There is no "standard MMORPG chart making guilde line". Do not make an assumption and state it like it is the truth.

The chart the OP posted was from FFXIAH forums,he just repeated what the original poster said while I was talking about the chart I posted which is far more well known.Oh and here's another chart,they're quite similar aren't they? I wonder why.....

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=tjOCmTX7jkEGeEzl8FJg85A#gid=0

 I see that you don't even know where your chart come from. Yes, I know there are several chart versions floating around. Do you know why they look similar? Because people who made the charts you post took the number from that chart, reduce the number of data point and redraw the chart.

Not just somebody btw,the majority of people on FF XIV fansite stated the same thing, like I said I've watched the forums since OB and I'm very careful with what I report. And you should go to the FF XIV fansites,search for server population related threads 2 weeks before the patch to see for yourself.I'll post some threads that I can remember:

http://www.ffxivcore.com/topic/27710-healthiest-server-population/

http://www.ffxivcore.com/topic/27904-397/page__p__428823__hl__population__fromsearch__1#entry428823

http://ffxiv.zam.com/forum.html?forum=152&mid=129039636047188014&howmany=50

And there're many many more BTW, but I'm having a Counter Strike match in 15 minutes so I'll just post what I can remember and found in the first few search pages.

Did you even read those posts or you just do a search and post here just to have something to post? People on those posts do not said exactly when they got their number. Week days, weekend? Nothing. Many people just simply state they observed the population are such and such. Those are only give people a general idea of a particular server are well populate by the NA and EU people or not but they are not data that you can use to analyze population trend. They are too vague, inaccurate and most of all they are just a single snapshot of the server population at one time. We were talking about the trend, remember?

Ah so you're not only a strawman(which I am not suprise,from my experience of arguing with you on gamevn) but also a denial fanboy.About the 400-800 thing, in case you weren't able to understand I'll explain this like to you: 400 on the lower population server,peak time.800 on the more populated server,peak time.From the things I've read I was able to come to that conclusion.Or are you ask from the exact quote from somebody else's posts?

Ok, so now you try to change what you were saying? You were saying the average population is 400-800 max even on the most populated realms remember? It's right there, 800 max on the most populated realms. And now you are trying to change it into 800 on the more populated server? Dude, go back and read those posts you quote up there. In that post several people posting they are seeing 1400 to 1800 people on their servers at US prime time. So either you are just making stuffs up or you just don't know how to read.

I've shown my proofs. You on the other hand,showed nothing to prove your statement that the game's population is not dropping dramatically(and when an AAA MMORPG population dropping 42k at official launch's first week to 22k when the game is still in FREE trial can not be called dramatically,then I don't know what can be called "dramatically")

You have no proof. All you have a some posts on the forums where people say one time what their server population are like. Those things cannot be used when you are trying to say the population are droping hard. Drop from where to where? What was the original NA or EU population on those servers to begin with? Go back and read my other posts. What I said was the charts show cannot be used to prove that the game population is dropping dramatically because those either are average numbers or the maker did not say anything regarding to how they come up with the number. If they did not say how they come up with the number, it could be anything. Just throwing charts out there does not prove anything. Numbers without context mean very little.

Originally posted by SnarkRitter

I believe that everyone knows that the chart does not represent the total population of the game,just the number of players log in at Japanese peak time. And how do I know that NA and  EU drops even harder? Let's begin by my statement that apart from gym,sleep,college class and hygiene times, I'm always at my computer,even when eating and studying. And  when studying I 'stalk" gaming forums which includes FF XIV forums like FF XIV Core,ZAM,Eorzepedia to relieve stress. That's why I know perfectly well about the status of  FF XIV. You don't believe that the NA and EU population drops even harder? Just go to  the websites I've mentioned and search topics related to "server population" in the last two weeks before patch, the average population is 400-800 max even on the most populated realms, stated by FF XIV lovers. How do I know which one is a FF XIV lover? Because I've been stalking FF XIV forums since OB I know who is FF XIV lover, fanboy and hater.

See above,and when so many different people on different forums state the same thing.It's most likely the truth.

No, that's your assumption that everyone know that. How on earth could anyone know anything about the chart if the maker of the chart say absolutely nothing about it? The original source said "FFXIV population" and that's it. Population what? Average? JP Peak, Absolute peak? Snap shot? Nothing. Just because a Japanese make the chart and you assume that it was Japanese peak number?

You see the OP of this thread has been copy and paste those charts here and saying those are the AVERAGE numbers. That's his interpretation of those charts. You on the other hand say it's Japanese peak, that's your interpretation of the charts. But nobody could even remotely know what the correct answer is.

You see, you can't just make your own assumption and state it as the truth.

So, your holy definite proof to my question was from somebody saying something about server population on the forums? What kind of data is that? Sombody posted with absolutely no time stamp, no date stamp about his server CCU snapshot was around 800 become your proof of the statement "NA and EU population drop even harder than the JP population?"

A few posts from random people about their snapshot of their server CCU at an unknown time stamp are not proof. They are not even valid data to begin with. And please, point me to where people post "the average population is 400-800 max even on the most populated realms". Don't bend people's words or make stuffs up to prove your points. That's bluffing and when you get called on, you're screwed.

Face it, you got nothing. You have no proof and you are making stuffs up just to make it sounds like you have something. Take this as a hint, to prove the NA and EU population drop even harder than the JP population, you need 3 trend lines. The NA trend line, the EU trend line and the JP trend line. Then you can compare them and draw conclusion. You have nothing, just a few posts in the forums. Nice.

Originally posted by Robokapp

Here is the reason. The daily data are a series of number represent the concurrent users online at that particular moment. Remember the nature of FFXIV population, it includes players from all over the world, which could be divided into 3 major groups, the NA group, the JP group and the EU group. The peak and valley of these 3 groups are at different times. So, to accurately portrait the population of FFXIV you have to run 3 different analysis for 3 different groups of people because the game CCU does actually peak 3 times. You can not take only 1 peak because the 3 groups of people are independent. The average number actually mixing these all up.

 I understand your hills-and-valleys argument but I still don't think it relates to what I'm saying. he triple-hump-graph, if we can call it that way will reproduce itself each day.

each day there'll be a JP peak, a EU peak and a US peak. I don't think the rate at which japanese players are quitting the game is different enough from the rate at which EU are quitting or the rate at which US are quitting. Yes, there are differences. But are they large enough to matter? I claim "no".

 I partially agree with you on this, however, I don't think they data points are large enough to see this. The 3 groups have different behavior due to the differences in holiday and playing style. For example, the US celebrate Thanksgiving where the JP does not which could lead to a significant change in the population trend for that particular period of time where you don't see that in previous days or weeks. To be able to see the number reproduce itself you need much bigger data pool as in this period of time this year compare to the same period of time last year...

So you claim "no", I claim "could be" and we never know who's right because we just don't have the data to prove either way.

Why would the europeans en-masse behave differently than japanese or americans in their trend? The little inconsistencies and variations ... if plotted individually would show up as random noise, of such a low magnitude that it'd be squished by sigfigs and roundings.

 That is true if the data pool is large enough. For such a short period of time and such a small number of data points, the inconsistencies and variations affect the trend big time.

Sankaku Complex reports a 48.06% drop. That number is wrong...obviously nobody can calculate at such high accuracy. But would an approximation of 45% - 50% be correct? more likely the answer is in there.

Let's say the Sankaku Complex  method is wrong, and the real answer isn't 48.06% but 47.55% ... Does it really matter?

We have no data to say otherwise, so you guess is as good as mine. Also, you are asuming that they are doing this objectively (no intentionally pick a certain data to plot or pick a certain time to collect data...) which I don't think they were judging from their dedication to bash Square-Enix.

---------------

To end the boring rant, the graph of playerbase repeats itself cyclically at 24 hours intervals. ups and down between days dictated by weekend/weekday and players quitting/joining. At any datapoint, as long as you're consistent you can derive a curve that shows you roughly how the game is doing.

We're not creeting world's best census program, we're just getting a clue of what's going on. Typically more data means less error due to sampling. Sure. I agree with you. But for a "good enough" estimate any datapoint works fine.

 Yes, I also agree with you that we are only trying to estimate what is going on but I don't think the data is "good enough". More data means less error but if the sampling size are too small then you can't draw any conclusion at all.

I really need someone to reply to my resumes...sorry for spewing that much number analysis stuff. :)

Originally posted by SnarkRitter

 

Are you aware that the chart people tend to quote is this?

Do you even aware how this conversation start? You need to read before posting.





You should know that this chart is made by Japanese,according to Japan's peak time?(oh NA and EU drop even harder BTW)

 Do you know that the OP of this thread when posting the chart here described these numbers as average numbers? Do you know that the source of these charts - Sankaku Complex and 2ch forum - were even more vague about what are these numbers truly mean? They are just blanket saying these are FFXIV population and leave them at that for readers to interpret whatever they mean. And they are wrong by the way, these are not FFXIV population, not even close. So, do you know something that no one else including the maker of these charts know or you are just making stuff up?  And you can't just come in and say oh NA and EU drop even harder BTW, where is your proof? Unless you have numbers to back it up, anyone is free to claim whatever they want.

Until the last patch you can tell how dramatically the game population is falling by having different char on different server,log in at peak time,record the number on players on current realm through the search party feature.You can also read the forums to know the situation,and you can tell the game population is falling like a rock when the developers remove the feature that let you know the total number of players on the realm,even Aion hasn't done that.

 

Right, did you do that? Did you sit down and record the number of players on different servers at different peak times? If you did that, care to share your RAW data with us, not just a vague chart like Sankaku Complex? Until then, you can't just claim you know how dramatically the game population is falling, m'kay? You need to back it up. From common sense, people know that the game population is declining but to tell how hard it is falling, you need to back it up with proof. You just can't read forum and magically know that the game population is falling like a rock. It does not work that way.

 

Originally posted by Robokapp

 Imagine this, the max line stay the same, but the min line drop. The result is the average of those 2 lines drop. In this case, the average number of FFXIV CCU would be calculated by a series of numbers represent the CCU of the game throughout the day. If all of them stay the same, 1 number drop would make the average number drop. If multiple numbers go up and down, the average number would become incredibly unpredictable. That's why I say it's useless.

 cute. But you're talking to an engineer not a mathematician. We use real-world evidence to construct "good enough" models.

 

can you think of any reason why the maximum population would remain constant but the minimum population would CONSIDERABLY decline?

 

Is the game magically different at 3am today than it was at 3am a month ago?

 

You are right in theory. In practical applications you're making a statement that needs proven. You're claiming my numerical model is wrong. Or that it could be wrong. So I'm asking you...IS IT WRONG?

 

If analyzing the maximum is so important like you say, why do you all of a sudden base your argument on analyzing the minimum? Why not analyze both? and then why not take the average to conveniently have one number not two. Oh wait now you're back at my number.

 

Your move, sir. Prove the minimum can behave very different from the maximum and you get to invalidate my statement that any datapoint, including the average value is good enough to develop a derivative.

Well, I am an engineer too. Here's the thing, you sometimes could draw an estimate conclusion from the average number but in this case you can't.

Here is the reason. The daily data are a series of number represent the concurrent users online at that particular moment. Remember the nature of FFXIV population, it includes players from all over the world, which could be divided into 3 major groups, the NA group, the JP group and the EU group. The peak and valley of these 3 groups are at different times. So, to accurately portrait the population of FFXIV you have to run 3 different analysis for 3 different groups of people because the game CCU does actually peak 3 times. You can not take only 1 peak because the 3 groups of people are independent. The average number actually mixing these all up.

You see why I keep telling that the average numbers are useless? It does not represent the trend very well. While using common sense, I agree with you that the population of the game is declining but what I am saying is you cannot tell how dramatic the game population is falling.

You cannot tell if the slop of the average line in this case is similar to the slop of the max line because you have no data points to make a guess.

Originally posted by Robokapp

the number he's using is to show TRENDS. not values.

 

you know...derivatives? bah who am i kidding. you're not that far in high school math.

 

anyway. if the average suffers a 2% drop per day or if the max suffers a 2% drop per day, then the derivative of both is still 2%.

 

A daily 2% change of a number 5.2 times bigger than another still spits out a derivative of 2%.

 

So keep your made-up numbers to yourself m'kay? we're talking population "continues to fall" here. (read title). we're not talking how big the population is, we're talking population trends. And the trends, with or without your cool coefficient are still in decline.

 

that 2% number i made up to illustrate a point. the real number is probably around -0.75% or so. I didn't calculate it. Just divide -48% by the number of days FFXIV has been out and that's the population trend.

Oh look, someone shows up to lecture me about derivative. I think you may get the general idea of a slop or derivative but the way you apply it is wrong. Heheh. You cannot draw a relation between a derivative of an average line and a derivative of a maximum line. That's just wrong. Imagine this, the max line stay the same, but the min line drop. The result is the average of those 2 lines drop. In this case, the average number of FFXIV CCU would be calculated by a series of numbers represent the CCU of the game throughout the day. If all of them stay the same, 1 number drop would make the average number drop. If multiple numbers go up and down, the average number would become incredibly unpredictable. That's why I say it's useless.

Again, from average numbers, you cannot draw any conclusion about what the maximum numbers would look like. You just can't, m'kay?

So, what does this tell you? The population of the game does have a relation with the PCU of the game. To view an accurate trend of the game population you need the PCU number, not the average CCU number. Hell, the average CCU number could go down but the PCU may stay the same, go down slightly but not as dramatic as the average or it may even go up (although unlikely).

Originally posted by Zookz1

Originally posted by Thachsanh

Originally posted by choujiofkono

     Last numbers show around 24k total.  That's including botters and afk players apparently.  The only thing SE did through eliminating the server population data is enable people to describe the emptiness of the game in forums without a way to verify.  I can see the attempt to curb data, but I think it may do more harm than good to them in the long run.  They should have left the data in the game and when the population begins to rise it could have been a decent marketing tool. 

I see you still trying to promote your number as if it was a meaning full one. Let me tell you one thing. Your number means absolutely nothing if you try to use it to predict how many players are playing the game.

Do you know why?

I will tell you why. First, your numbers are not FFXIV population. It's not even close to FFXIV population. It represents concurrent online users or CCU. 

Second, In many of your post where you show charts, numbers, .... you keep using the word AVERAGE. Average CCU means nothing when you try to use it to predict the game population. What you need is the MAXIMUM CCU of the game or PCU, which is Peak Concurent Users.

A common method to predict a game population is to take PCU * a multiplier (between 5 and 10 depends). An average CCU is worthless. So let's just keep that number to your self from now on, OK?

Almost every MMO games in the market removed the way to obtain direct population of the game at one point (usually very shortly after release). So, FFXIV is not the first game doing this and certainly will not be the last.

 

You call his numbers worthless and then give us some cryptic multiplier that I assume you conjured from thin air. I'm more concerned with the average population than the maximum potential population. The average population gives a better picture relative to server activity. Sure, a server could have a "PCU" (multiplied by 5 of course) of 8,000 players, but that hardly gives players an idea of server activity. PCU isn't a viable metric for players. Sure, you could write a script to query the lodestone with a bunch of parameters, but I'd say 24k is a more usable number than what you put forth.

 

In the end, it's all pointless. The only people who should care about hard numbers is SE. Players should only be concerned if populations drop in such a way that it has a negative impact on their play sessions.

PCU isn't a vieable metric for players? I would beg for differ. Let me give you an example. At current time, EVE reported to have roughly 350K subscribers, EVE record PCU is 60K (source here http://www.eveonline.com/news.asp?a=single&nid=3934&tid=1).  Sub / PCU = 5.8.

In this press release http://www.gamezone.com/news/item/atari_announce_contents_of_eve_online_retail_box EVE has 260K subscriber with a PCU of 50K. Sub / PCU = 5.2.

In 2007 when EVE has about 150K subscribers, its PCU was about 30K. Sub /PCU = 5.

You see where I am comming from?

The fomula is actually quite commonly used among free-to-play developers to make population educated guess. With free-to-play games or just released games the multiplier usually raise toward 10 and pay-to-play games or old games the multiplier usually hang around 5. For example, when WAR just released, its population is about 800K and they anounced its PCU reached 75K. Of course, this is just an estimate fomula, you can't expect it to tell you the exact number, just the ball park figure.

But, remember, to make the population estimate, you need the PCU which is the maximum number of concurrent users online on ALL servers. Average CCU is useless.

Originally posted by choujiofkono

     Last numbers show around 24k total.  That's including botters and afk players apparently.  The only thing SE did through eliminating the server population data is enable people to describe the emptiness of the game in forums without a way to verify.  I can see the attempt to curb data, but I think it may do more harm than good to them in the long run.  They should have left the data in the game and when the population begins to rise it could have been a decent marketing tool. 

I see you still trying to promote your number as if it was a meaning full one. Let me tell you one thing. Your number means absolutely nothing if you try to use it to predict how many players are playing the game.

Do you know why?

I will tell you why. First, your numbers are not FFXIV population. It's not even close to FFXIV population. It represents concurrent online users or CCU. 

Second, In many of your post where you show charts, numbers, .... you keep using the word AVERAGE. Average CCU means nothing when you try to use it to predict the game population. What you need is the MAXIMUM CCU of the game or PCU, which is Peak Concurent Users.

A common method to predict a game population is to take PCU * a multiplier (between 5 and 10 depends). An average CCU is worthless. So let's just keep that number to your self from now on, OK?

Almost every MMO games in the market removed the way to obtain direct population of the game at one point (usually very shortly after release). So, FFXIV is not the first game doing this and certainly will not be the last.