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All Posts by fadis

All Posts by fadis

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I think it's safe to say at least 10.4% are wrong.

 

Should also be noted, I think most of us were considering "subs" to be the # of accounts that were paying each month - not the EA definition of "active subscribers."

 

 

 

As of 4/30...

* We know the game has sold 2.4 million copies.

* We know there are 1.3 million "active subscribers."

* We can safely guess that something like 75k of those are on the free 30-days.

* We also know there is an unknown amount of "active subscribers" that are part of the various trial offers and have not purchased the game, yet.

 

 

 

 

 

Originally posted by Rasputin
Originally posted by Vax44

from their prepared notes for conference call:

Let me provide you with an update on Star Wars:
Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last
call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April we now
have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players
cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers.
We have already launched a number of initiatives designed to grow subscriptions. The initial
responses have been positive and we are encouraged by the gaming community’s reaction.
In summary, we delivered an extraordinary launch of a solidly profitable long-term franchise,
which contributed to both our gross and operating margin improvements in fiscal 12. We expect
this title will further expand our margins in fiscal 13 as we get the full year benefit of subscription
revenue.
Let us give you two additional points of perspective as it relates to our current subscriber base
and its impact on our fiscal 13 guidance. First, the current number of active subscribers, 1.3
million, is very consistent with the original assumptions we made when we acquired BioWare in
2008. Second, while this franchise is very profitable, it only represents a mid-single digit
percent of our total profitability in fiscal 13.

 

They defined trial and casual players in the q&a as non-mmoers who were driven to try the game due to it being Star Wars.  According to them the "hardcore" mmoers are still playing.

 


So let me get this straight:

They talk about 1.7 million active subscribers, and this number has fallen, "due to casual and trial players cycling out of the subscriber base"?

Does that mean, that they are counting trial players as subscribers?

Does that mean, that the people, that got 30 days for free, but may already have uninstalled and never returned, also are counted? Maybe that was the reason for the 30-days-free at exactly this time: Extend all subscriptions, so they are counted in the report.

 

Not sure about the last one, but I find it quite concerning, that they seem to have been counting trial players as subscribers.

 

The answers to your questions are yes and yes.

 

 

HERO engine = this game will blow.

Maybe it's all part of the 'lowering of expectations.'

 

 

 

 

 

^Those charts lead me to believe XFire is probably losing active users... but the only period we care about for purposes of looking at TOR is since TOR launch to now.  Specifically we'd need to know the % decline in active XFire users... then make a comparison in the decline in TOR users. 

It's all part of the puzzle.  It isn't just 1 thing that leads people to think TOR is in a big decline... it's everything.

Since Tera just launched... maybe track their numbers a bit and see if they release any sub #'s. 

 

* didn't look too hard, but I think I saw a post that mentioned early-launch TOR having something like 10,000 users.  Assuming people play both games just about as hard-core in the launch days... TERA's 1200 players puts it @ something like maybe 200k subs?  Sounds fair to me.

TOR has 3000-ish players... not playing as hard-core, of course, at this point.  700k-800k subs maybe?

 

TERA also launched... not a huge MMO, but at least on based on the area chat - there are people that left TOR. 

 

One of the big components we don't know in all of this is the actual number of ACTIVE Xfire users.  It leaves some doubt about the value of the raw numbers... more doubt, if we saw TOR actually rising in the overall rankings, while losing raw players.

On the other hand - since we see TOR now dropping below World of Tanks AND losing raw numbers... that's probably another pretty good sign (along with all the other data) that TOR is continuing to slide.

^Complaining about the F1-F5 keys is rather stupid.

You're aware you can change your keybindings, no?

 

I'm enjoying the game... it's pretty and plays crisply.  The melee combat is quite a bit more engaging than standard MMOs - not perfect, but it works!

Also, though not normally my thing... I can enjoy the bizzaro FF/Lineage/Aion/Asiantheme/BouncyBoobs!!! atmosphere for a few weeks.  Cleans the palate after TOR.

The world... while looking nice... is barely interactive.  In a strange way, it reminds me of GW1.  Things look nice, but it really is just painted on.  A few things you can jump around on... most you'll go flying off in weird directions as you hit invisible walls and whatnot.

 

 

I don't see a battle.

I'm having a bit of fun with TERA - but in a couple of months, it'll surely have sub #'s around 150k-100k.  I don't see it having much staying power.

Originally posted by lizardbones

 


Originally posted by Scorchien


Originally posted by lizardbones
 
... lots of snips, sorry ...

Please calculate the margin of error for XFire. Anyone please calculate a margin of error for XFire. Calculate anything really. There's too much guesswork involved with it. Even the statement "there are fewer players now than three weeks ago" has to be qualified with probably because you can't prove anything with it.

It's just a poor tool to use to make any sort of point.
 



Here is a margin for error for ya .. AoC , Warhammer, Aion , Hellgtae, DCUO, Dungeon Runner, Darkfall... etc , they all showed the same trends.. and the reult is always the same..  0 margin of error. in that... 
            Its only the Facts and never let it interfere with your perceived truth ...
   The game is dying and will be lucky to have 350k subs by Sept..




That's not a calculated margin of error. You are trying to do the impossible. Take XFire information and derive actual subscriber numbers. You can't do it because there's not enough information to actually get a real number.

Again, XFire can't be used to prove anything. There's not enough information from XFire and not enough information coming from Bioware to substantiate anything.

 

 

True.  The only things Xfire can show us for sure are:

1) the exact average hours played on TOR of Xfire users. 

2) the raw amount of Xfire members that play TOR on a given day.

3) and if you were really bored... I think you could figure the % of overall Xfire hours played per day, used on TOR.

 

However... it's hard to deny there doesn't appear to be a strong >>> correlation <<< between Xfire results and subscriber levels - based on other data (behavior of previous games in relation to Xfire data, known subscription levels, torstatus, changes in business models, observed populations, historical trends, and on and on...)

 

 

 

 

Check out the fees!

 

If you want to sell something and get real cash... Blizzard gets 30%, not including PayPal fees.

I played warrior for most of the OB.

I found melee combat to be very clunky - rifle pew pew pew was much better.

 

 

I didn't get quite to where you were...

I think I went: 'blergh'---> 'meh'---> 'okthisisgettingbetter'

 

And in contrast to TOR (I kind of had the same feelings) - where the improvements I needed would've required them putting in entirely new systems and features - GW2 seems closer to having a great game.

Originally posted by gervaise1

The key question for this thread is:

Could the GW2 weekend have accounted for the drop - and the answer must be 'possibly'.

If so then there should be a corresponding uptick when its all over.

3043 on 4/28.  Typically the 2nd most active day of the week and barely cracks 3000... surely the GW2 beta had a part in the drop, but I still think you're looking at a slowing, but steady decline.  The thing to worry about for TOR - this was only the beta... when GW2 actually launches, I'd expect a much greater impact.

2958 on 4/27. 

Setting records daily... just not the right kind.

News getting worse and worse...

 

 

I just bought it through GAMEFLY - despite swearing I'd never use them again after the D2D fiasco.

 

The key is in the purchase history - as others have said.

Go to GW2 site and register.

After registering, I received emails from ANET with the link to dl the beta (granted the emails were in French for some reason) - but I could figure it out.

I'm dl'ing beta client now.  That's as far as I've got, but I assume I'll be able to login when it is installed.

 

 

It's gonna be huge in Afghanistan.

10's of sales.

Ahhhh.... the always fun "buyout rumor."

Far more often than not it turns out to be the "last chance to get out with shirt still on your back."

 

 

 

Originally posted by fiveodano

You're all gonna hate me for this but...Champions Online looks just like the source material just pick up any marvel comic book circa 1960 or later. When I play CO I am amazed how good they got it, I'm glad they're putting more work into this, they recently had a great update. Still the game needs more(way more) content. But as far as looks go, they really nailed it. BTW, I love the look of all the other games mentioned, I just think CO looks exactly the way it should.

I know what you're talking about with CO.  It's actually a nice game.  Not something that will entertain you for 6 months... but play it for 6 weeks and you'll walk away happy.

 

I like graphics - but I'm definitely more about the overall look and feel.  For me - AoC could look pretty - but it always felt clunky.

 

 

 

 

Originally posted by sirphobos

Second most subscribed to MMO after WoW.  What a huge embarassing failure.

WATERWORLD was also the 12th highest grossing movie of 1995...  (probably a bit before most of your times, I know)

 

If EA spent XXX millions of $$$ on this game and it is only making a small profit... no profit... or having the production scaled back (cut development team and expansion schedule) to ensure it doesn't lose money...

 

Anyone looking at the game from a business perspective isn't going to see a success.  They will see a huge waste of company resources. 

 

 

I wonder if today will turn out to be an all-time low.  School vacation week just ended here... and it's a Monday.

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