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All Posts by fadis

All Posts by fadis

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459 posts found

6/3 = 1576... looks like only a tiny drop from 1 week ago.  Pace of decline slowing for the moment, maybe? 

Originally posted by Gdemami


Originally posted by Deepfall


Also, profitability with only 500.000 subscribers would not be reached before years.


2.4M boxes sold + 500k/month subs = 159M revenue within 3 months(very underestimated calculation).

No need to fail in math more than article you linked...

But when all is said and done - EA probably sees less than 2/3 of the box revenue and who knows how much of the monthly sub revenue. 

And then there are the continuing monthly costs to run the game... additional development and marketing... are those > monthly revenue?  Beyond just that... is it worth their time to involve X number of talented inviduals in a project that isn't making a substantial profit.. not just keeping its head above water.

Also... how do you factor the $860 million EA paid for Bioware.... oh yeah.  Sure they have Dragon Age... and Mass Effect... but surely a good portion of that money was intended to be recouped by some TOR profitability?

Despite some that don't understand the business stating otherwise... SWTOR is on its way to being a pretty epic financial failure.  That's really indisputable.


It's kind of like the company that invested millions in some great new HD CD technology... right as MP3's became the standard. 

Ya... ya... ya....


Every thread criticizing the HERO engine, then populates with some "in the know" developer/engineer-types that tell us how our opinion is just wrong.


OK.  Fine.. maybe it is... maybe HERO engine is wonderful.  But until most of us gamers actually see a product using the HERO engins that doesn't suck... we're not going to believe you.  And you know that... and no amount of "well you just don't understand..." is going to matter.


Save your breath.

I would not mess around with this company.


Tried for several days to cancel my account.  The online account management simply doesn't work.  Went through the process several times... never recieved a confirmation email... no change in my account status. 

Tried to contact their so boldly displayed 24/7 ONLINE SUPPORT... waited 4 hours for my place in the queue to drop from 95 to 22... only to see it then start to RISE... I gave up when I was up to 27!!! 


I remember when they were having account management problems on launch... OK... I sent a ticket then, didn't get a reply until 2 weeks later --- sorry for the delay, we've been busy.  if you're still having problems please contact our online support.






I think most people in here understand exactly what we can get from xFire and what we can't... if someone wants to come in here and think they are utterly meaningless or indicative of a thriving and healthy SWTOR... be.. my... guest.


I'm just going to continue tracking :)

Originally posted by lizardbones


Originally posted by fadis
Ever heard of a little game called MINECRAFT?



The game looks like it was made in 1992, yet has millions of online users... the company that figures out how to take its appeal and twist it into a modern MMO setting will probably have... the... next... big.... thing.

Minecraft uses too much bandwidth to even be thought about as an MMORPG. It's not possible to compress the data that needs to be transmitted any smaller - so the pipe it's passing through needs to be larger, which would make it astronomically expensive. You can fit 3 people per 1Mbs of bandwidth. No time in the near future will it be feasible to squeeze a massive minecraft server into the world.

Aside from that, not one issue with sandbox mechanics is solved by Minecraft. It works because of the scale. People are playing with a small number of people and they are picking and choosing who they play with. Scale it up and you have all the issues you have with sandbox games in general.

Minecraft is a great example that people like sandbox games, a great example of indie development, and a great example that game play is at least as important as graphics, but it's not a good example of the desire of people to play sandbox MMORPG.

** edit **
I play Minecraft and run a server. I also play on other public servers. I'm not bashing the game at all. It just wouldn't solve any issues with sandbox MMORPG.


Although I'm late to the party with the Minecraft mention...

You're missing the point.  I'm not versed in all the technical challenges - but the success of a game like Minecraft surely indicates that there is a very lively market for sandbox features.  And as many of those types of things that could be incorporated into AAA-quality MMOs, would surely be appreciated.

I don't even really like Minecraft - the game.  I see it more as a sort of "tech" demo.  And I'd be happy to wager you'll see many features derived from MC start to make their way into more larger-scale and successful online games. 


I just don't agree with the OP, at all. 


Ever heard of a little game called MINECRAFT?


The game looks like it was made in 1992, yet has millions of online users... the company that figures out how to take its appeal and twist it into a modern MMO setting will probably have... the... next... big.... thing.


* and seriously... everyone know that companies have just been copying the WoW model for about 7 or 8 years now (chasing this imaginary golden goose)... there hasn't been a AAA sandbox effort.... ever.



The only thing horrible about xFire is that we don't know how many active daily users there are...  We could figure this out - if we we added each game's total daily users... then displayed the # of users playing each game as a %.

For now, we assume that overall # of users of xFire - at least on a day to day and week to week basis is pretty similar - so... YES... you can make comparisons between games and get a pretty solid data on the trends in play activity

Can we use that to tell us the exact # of subscribers?  Not exactly.  That would require more info about player behavior... but again, aI think most of us feel pretty safe to say that less activity on a game does translate into less subscribers. 

And lastly... xFire data is just ONE indicator out of several that give us an idea what is going on with TOR... and they are all pointing in the same direction.






Originally posted by CazNeerg
Originally posted by Deepfall

Apparently, from the few things we know about TESO,  it will be just another themepark.


"Zenimax Online has done what they feel is a good job at taking the best parts of The Elder Scrolls series and skillfully sewing them together with the best elements of popular MMO titles like World of Warcraft to create a fanciful hybrid.
(...) some elements are unable to make the transition, such as owning a house, but they are doing their best to keep as much as humanly possible."

Of course it will be a themepark.  A game developer would have to be incredibly brave or incresibly stupid to try a sandbox implementation for a major IP, there is zero evidence in the history of the MMO market that the sandbox approach is capable of leading to significant success.  As far as bravery goes, how likely does anyone think that would be in modern game development?  And if they are stupid, then the game would probably suck anyway.


Originally posted by sindraod

Basically, SWtOR is just not a good game. Much too linear. No space combat. Poor planet design. Really, the list goes on and on.

They did nothing to step outside of the KotOR model, and that's a shame. The model is above-average for single-player games, but MMOs are a different animal.

Couple all of that with EA, the company notorious for favoring profits over quality products, and the recipe for fail was complete.

Nonsense.  Criticize the design approach of the MMO elements all you want, but it simply isn't accurate to say it is a bad game.    The only *major* flaw is the presence of the subscription fee.  WIthout that, you would have at the very least 8 of the best single player RPGs ever made.  Hell, in a lot of ways TOR is the best game BioWare has made in several years.  Certainly better than Dragon Age 2 or Mass Effect 3.


Absolutely not.


You're kidding.  You think an RPG in 2012 that involves walking around static environments in a linear fashion, going from quest hub to quest hub - talking to people with little !'s over their head, then going out and killing 10 womprats, coming back... repeating... for 60 levels... is one of the single greatest RPGs ever?

The graphics aren't great.  The combat is nothing special.  The cutscenes are ponderous.  AND choice doesn't matter.


Please tell me what makes TOR this amazing RPG.


I imagine if it holds 500k --> paying <-- subscribers for 2 years, then it will break even.



I'm amazed at how bad a job was done itemizing and incorporating crafting into the game. 


Don't care.


38 Studios made one very forgettable game and were likely on their way (if they ever could've finished the project) to releasing an equally derivative MMO.


If disasters like this and TOR discourage uninspired mega-corp efforts... I'm all for it.  I used to feel differently, but now I feel like the more $$$ involved, the less creativity and risk-taking we'll find in the game. 

If you're trying to make something with lasting appeal - MMOs should be designed from the endgame backwards.... been saying it for almost a decade.


Throw out every bit of 'levelling content' and then ask yourself... is the endgame something I'd pay $15/mo to play for months and months... if the answer is NO - you're game isn't going to have much lasting appeal.

I didn't see anything even mildly impressive in the video.  Bland cartoon-ish fantasy blech we've seen 1000 times before...


Who knows what they have planned for gameplay - and that's surely the most important part of it all- but if they bring the same lack of innovation to this project as they brought to KoA... I have little hope for the game.



Originally posted by Vhaln
Originally posted by Rasputin
Originally posted by Loke666

Still, TOR did sell over 2 million copies. If they get in 30 bucks each on those that would make $60M. Add monthly fees up til now and I think they must be somewhere between 80 and 100M$. That is not all the game cost to make, we do know it cost at least 120M$ and maybe as much as 150 (speculations of 300M or more are silly).

So I am pretty sure they will get in development cost anyways. Even if the game go down to 250K players it will get in that soon. Of course since EA expected it to be the next Wow they will still be dissapointed but it still ain't a huge failure like TR.

TOR will get in more money in the end that SWG but it is likely that SWG will get in more compared to what SOE payed to make it ($9M).

Calling a game that will get back all cost and earn some money a huge failure seems harsch.

Don't forget that Lukas Arts takes out a good chunk.

..and the point isn't just to break even.  Pretty sure they're hoping to make some profit at some point.  Big company like EA, we're talking a lot of profit, probably upwards of what they spent making the game, or more.


And even "breaking even" isn't what people are talking about here.


There is always the opportunity cost to consider.  Let's say it cost $100 million over 5 years.  Not only are you tieing up all those resources in workers and materials for 5 years - if EA had nothing other than invest the $100 million in some kind of safe 4% annual return... they would've made more than $20 million over that time.



Don't forget... it also costs $/mo for running the game and continued development.  EA themselves put the break-even point @ 500k subs.... so they need about $7.5 million/mo over time... beyond the sales of the game to get there.


Probably expected it to cost $5 million+ mo to run the game... surely cutting back that cost as fast as they can (layoffs) and cancelling development... still this game is probably a long way from going in the black and may never.


EA can spin it all they want - but this was a pretty big failure.  Huge waste of time and money.

Again... if you don't like it - don't buy it.


Blizzard obviously has their reasons - most of which are financial - and they have every right to run things the way they want... and they will do so... until finacial reasons make them change their minds.


* And this has nothing to do with pissing off legi customers... what WILL piss off legit customers is if Blizzard stops making top games.  As long as their games are the best... some % of people can happily pitch fits and boycott or whatever... and they are easily replaced by new gamers. 

And in the end... most of those boycotters will be right back playing anyway.  When you make the best games - you get to make the rules!



The political irony in this is astounding...


For those that don't know - Schilling is quite the conservative blowhard... a guy that consistently is on morning talk radio lambasting government spending and whatnot...

So it's rather ironic that he moved the company out of MA - when the (D) governor would not give his company $75 million in loan guarantees from the taxpayers... and now that his company is failing and bounced a loan check - is essentially begging RI for more taxpayer money.


Oh yeah!

Definitely a way to toggle different skill builds.

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