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General Discussion  » 5 million registered beta users! 10 million users by end of year.

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544 posts found
  ozmono

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/12/06
Posts: 1077

3/23/14 11:22:15 PM#481
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by ozmono

Really? The 10k subscribers by the end of the month example? You don't think fans such as the OP wouldn't respond in the same way people have responded to him for blowing it out of proportion in the opposite direction? Both extremes are making their presence felt and there is no denying it even from a semi-neutral standpoint. It's been clear to me for awhile which is the reason I've barely spent anytime in these forums recently despite the game being the most relevant focal point in the genre at the moment.

In order to create a thread that's states 10k subs, you would have to have some sort of credibility to make it last 50 pages, like I have offered with my statement..  I have offered very detailed reasons and answers to how 10 million subs is possible by the end of the year.    Some people just cant stand facts that are presented in a positive light in a best case scenario in such a full detailed explaination like I have given throughout this entire thread.   I have yet to more then just a few posts in this thread, where people actually took the time to do the math on this.   People want to believe what the want to sometimes based on their own views, without taking time to look at the numbers we are facing here.

Are we talking about the same thread? Most of the post in this thread have been people posting to laugh at you. It is the absurdity of the thread title which has attracted so much attention. The evidence is in the responses this thread has received. I would normally be inclined to feel sorry for someone when they attract 50 pages of what you have. Infact I was feeling sorry for you until I stumbled across you shilling for yourself. Stupidly shilling for yourself but still shilling for yourself.

 

As for your main argument it's nonsense. 5 million beta registrations in no way means there will be 10 million users by the end of the year. Firstly people often register more than once on separate emails. Secondly many beta testers tried and disliked the game, there is a reason why lots of game companies don't let people play an unfinished product and it is often because it turns people off the finished product. Thirdly most sub games have been folding (or atleast changing business models because of lack of retention) and ESO doesn't seem to offer anything that will change that trend according to my own experience and many other peoples experience. Lastly it hasn't even been getting constantly solid press previews like other games that were going to be "the next big thing" did, like SWTOR for example.

  cesmode8

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/16/12
Posts: 280

3/23/14 11:22:17 PM#482
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by ozmono

Really? The 10k subscribers by the end of the month example? You don't think fans such as the OP wouldn't respond in the same way people have responded to him for blowing it out of proportion in the opposite direction? Both extremes are making their presence felt and there is no denying it even from a semi-neutral standpoint. It's been clear to me for awhile which is the reason I've barely spent anytime in these forums recently despite the game being the most relevant focal point in the genre at the moment.

In order to create a thread that's states 10k subs, you would have to have some sort of credibility to make it last 50 pages, like I have offered with my statement..  I have offered very detailed reasons and answers to how 10 million subs is possible by the end of the year.    Some people just cant stand facts that are presented in a positive light in a best case scenario in such a full detailed explaination like I have given throughout this entire thread.   I have yet to more then just a few posts in this thread, where people actually took the time to do the math on this.   People want to believe what the want to sometimes based on their own views, without taking time to look at the numbers we are facing here.

 

given the 5 million registered beta users. and the entire market of ESO, I don't see how you could consider my 10  million statement as unreasonable.   Just look at the size of that market.

 

ENTIRE MARKET OF ESO:

2-3 million MMO playerse looking for a new game.

2.8 million PC ES fans who bought Skyrim.

17.2 million console ES fans who bought Skyrim.

The fact that 4.8 million Oblivion copies sold.

The fact that 4 million Morrowind copies sold.

X million of console MMO players (unknown since no MMORPG has came to them since Xbox and PS2)

X millions migrating to ESO from other gaems.

Keep going. This is making me laugh.  Provide links to credible sources, and nothing from some joe schmoe from mmorpg.com or some gaming website.  Credible sources like game dev and publisher quarterly statements?  And your last two lines are complete(and huge) assumptions. 

Please just stop.  ESO will not be the WoW killer with 10 million in a year.  Lucky for 1 or 2 mil

 

  Whitebeards

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/02/11
Posts: 823

3/23/14 11:24:02 PM#483
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by ozmono

Really? The 10k subscribers by the end of the month example? You don't think fans such as the OP wouldn't respond in the same way people have responded to him for blowing it out of proportion in the opposite direction? Both extremes are making their presence felt and there is no denying it even from a semi-neutral standpoint. It's been clear to me for awhile which is the reason I've barely spent anytime in these forums recently despite the game being the most relevant focal point in the genre at the moment.

In order to create a thread that's states 10k subs, you would have to have some sort of credibility to make it last 50 pages, like I have offered with my statement..  I have offered very detailed reasons and answers to how 10 million subs is possible by the end of the year.    Some people just cant stand facts that are presented in a positive light in a best case scenario in such a full detailed explaination like I have given throughout this entire thread.   I have yet to more then just a few posts in this thread, where people actually took the time to do the math on this.   People want to believe what the want to sometimes based on their own views, without taking time to look at the numbers we are facing here.

 

given the 5 million registered beta users. and the entire market of ESO, I don't see how you could consider my 10  million statement as unreasonable.   Just look at the size of that market.

 

ENTIRE MARKET OF ESO:

2-3 million MMO playerse looking for a new game.

2.8 million PC ES fans who bought Skyrim.

17.2 million console ES fans who bought Skyrim.

The fact that 4.8 million Oblivion copies sold.

The fact that 4 million Morrowind copies sold.

X million of console MMO players (unknown since no MMORPG has came to them since Xbox and PS2)

X millions migrating to ESO from other gaems.

Good thing this is just your opinion... so we can ignore it.

  Knotwood

Novice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1117

 
OP  3/24/14 12:55:19 AM#484
Originally posted by DEAD.line

I know i'm going to sound like a troll or hater, but, is it possible they don't even have 1 million pre-orders? I'm thinking about it after a comment i read on another thread. 

When TOR and GW2 reached them, BW and Anet announced it to brag about it and give positive news about their games. Understandable, since marketing is important. Wouldn't Zenimax have announced 1 million po's if ESO had reached them by now, since the game has been getting quite some negative to mixed impressions?

Again, not trolling, just saying that if they did, it'd be a good way to release more positive PR. Maybe they're keeping it to themeselves, of course.

I think they already said they have over a million preorders right here in this statement.  Just read between the lines.

 

http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en/news/post/2014/03/14/eso-road-ahead

"our testing has now confirmed that millions of players from Europe (and beyond) can play on our North American server and experience ESO as it was designed—without latency or lag problems."  - ESO Zenimax

 

Not just a million, but "millions".......

  ozmono

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/12/06
Posts: 1077

3/24/14 1:36:15 AM#485
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by DEAD.line

I know i'm going to sound like a troll or hater, but, is it possible they don't even have 1 million pre-orders? I'm thinking about it after a comment i read on another thread. 

When TOR and GW2 reached them, BW and Anet announced it to brag about it and give positive news about their games. Understandable, since marketing is important. Wouldn't Zenimax have announced 1 million po's if ESO had reached them by now, since the game has been getting quite some negative to mixed impressions?

Again, not trolling, just saying that if they did, it'd be a good way to release more positive PR. Maybe they're keeping it to themeselves, of course.

I think they already said they have over a million preorders right here in this statement.  Just read between the lines.

 

http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en/news/post/2014/03/14/eso-road-ahead

"our testing has now confirmed that millions of players from Europe (and beyond) can play on our North American server and experience ESO as it was designed—without latency or lag problems."  - ESO Zenimax

 

Not just a million, but "millions".......

"Can" is the key word. You could have the best server tech in the world, lots of servers and a game that requires minimal bandwidth. In that case you could say 100's of millions can play on our North American servers but it wouldn't mean that 100 of millions have preordered. If they had really broken records for pre-orders I think they would be shouting it from the roof tops to all the gaming press in no such uncertain terms.

  Aroukos

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/13/13
Posts: 584

3/24/14 1:45:59 AM#486
Originally posted by ozmono
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by DEAD.line

I know i'm going to sound like a troll or hater, but, is it possible they don't even have 1 million pre-orders? I'm thinking about it after a comment i read on another thread. 

When TOR and GW2 reached them, BW and Anet announced it to brag about it and give positive news about their games. Understandable, since marketing is important. Wouldn't Zenimax have announced 1 million po's if ESO had reached them by now, since the game has been getting quite some negative to mixed impressions?

Again, not trolling, just saying that if they did, it'd be a good way to release more positive PR. Maybe they're keeping it to themeselves, of course.

I think they already said they have over a million preorders right here in this statement.  Just read between the lines.

 

http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en/news/post/2014/03/14/eso-road-ahead

"our testing has now confirmed that millions of players from Europe (and beyond) can play on our North American server and experience ESO as it was designed—without latency or lag problems."  - ESO Zenimax

 

Not just a million, but "millions".......

"Can" is the key word. You could have the best server tech in the world, lots of servers and a game that requires minimal bandwidth. In that case you could say 100's of millions can play on our North American servers but it wouldn't mean that 100 of millions have preordered. If they had really broken records for pre-orders I think they would be shouting it from the roof tops to all the gaming press in no such uncertain terms.

 

^^

  sportsfan

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/20/12
Posts: 419

3/24/14 1:54:09 AM#487

More like 400 K subscribers by mid 2015 ...

50k on both consoles and 300k on PC.

No one is going to pay monthly fees for a new MMORPG except the hardcore lovers.

The problem is the subscription on consoles. Not even CoD Elite subs succeded. CoD Elite went very quickly f2p over one year. Console players hop from one game to another in a matter of weeks, let alone they will pay an extra fee to continue playing each month.

 

I think the above are very realistic figures in view of the overall quality and compared to the products we have seen over the last 7 years.

 

  Knotwood

Novice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1117

 
OP  3/24/14 1:54:48 AM#488
Originally posted by Aroukos
Originally posted by ozmono
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by DEAD.line

I know i'm going to sound like a troll or hater, but, is it possible they don't even have 1 million pre-orders? I'm thinking about it after a comment i read on another thread. 

When TOR and GW2 reached them, BW and Anet announced it to brag about it and give positive news about their games. Understandable, since marketing is important. Wouldn't Zenimax have announced 1 million po's if ESO had reached them by now, since the game has been getting quite some negative to mixed impressions?

Again, not trolling, just saying that if they did, it'd be a good way to release more positive PR. Maybe they're keeping it to themeselves, of course.

I think they already said they have over a million preorders right here in this statement.  Just read between the lines.

 

http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en/news/post/2014/03/14/eso-road-ahead

"our testing has now confirmed that millions of players from Europe (and beyond) can play on our North American server and experience ESO as it was designed—without latency or lag problems."  - ESO Zenimax

 

Not just a million, but "millions".......

"Can" is the key word. You could have the best server tech in the world, lots of servers and a game that requires minimal bandwidth. In that case you could say 100's of millions can play on our North American servers but it wouldn't mean that 100 of millions have preordered. If they had really broken records for pre-orders I think they would be shouting it from the roof tops to all the gaming press in no such uncertain terms.

 

^^

And that annoucment wouldn't come without the full 7 more days of pre-orders before early access, let alone until launch day!   What company would be stupid enough to not wait until every last pre order was placed before the shock and awe?

  sportsfan

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/20/12
Posts: 419

3/24/14 2:05:56 AM#489

OP there is a huge difference between seeing a 5 EU box in a super market or downloading a free key and installing the game to see what it is and paying a subscription for one year.

In the past 7 years the ratio has been around 10 trials to 1 long term yearly subscription for the most successful ones.

Growth AFTER the initial launching month was NEVER the case in all these years. 

The reason is simple: the bigger the launching numbers the bigger the difference between quitters and small number of new players after the hyped launch.

 400k subs in one year would be an awesome success.

  ozmono

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/12/06
Posts: 1077

3/24/14 2:29:11 AM#490
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by Aroukos
Originally posted by ozmono
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by DEAD.line

I know i'm going to sound like a troll or hater, but, is it possible they don't even have 1 million pre-orders? I'm thinking about it after a comment i read on another thread. 

When TOR and GW2 reached them, BW and Anet announced it to brag about it and give positive news about their games. Understandable, since marketing is important. Wouldn't Zenimax have announced 1 million po's if ESO had reached them by now, since the game has been getting quite some negative to mixed impressions?

Again, not trolling, just saying that if they did, it'd be a good way to release more positive PR. Maybe they're keeping it to themeselves, of course.

I think they already said they have over a million preorders right here in this statement.  Just read between the lines.

 

http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en/news/post/2014/03/14/eso-road-ahead

"our testing has now confirmed that millions of players from Europe (and beyond) can play on our North American server and experience ESO as it was designed—without latency or lag problems."  - ESO Zenimax

 

Not just a million, but "millions".......

"Can" is the key word. You could have the best server tech in the world, lots of servers and a game that requires minimal bandwidth. In that case you could say 100's of millions can play on our North American servers but it wouldn't mean that 100 of millions have preordered. If they had really broken records for pre-orders I think they would be shouting it from the roof tops to all the gaming press in no such uncertain terms.

 

^^

And that annoucment wouldn't come without the full 7 more days of pre-orders before early access, let alone until launch day!   What company would be stupid enough to not wait until every last pre order was placed before the shock and awe?

If they do break records and they announce the full figures after every last preorder than you can start making such claims without resorting to weak inferences that you cannot support. Until than it's just more wild speculation on your behalf.

  NeuroDeus

Novice Member

Joined: 5/26/09
Posts: 6

3/24/14 4:47:59 AM#491
Originally posted by Knotwood

ENTIRE MARKET OF ESO:

2-3 million MMO playerse looking for a new game.

Makes a bit of sense, although you have to admit a lot of MMO players although loving their current MMO are always ready to try something else

2.8 million PC ES fans who bought Skyrim.

Not all ES fans will by ESO, actually Hardcore Skyrim Players will continue to play Skyrim

17.2 million console ES fans who bought Skyrim.

Same as above, and are we sure about the 17.2 mill?

The fact that 4.8 million Oblivion copies sold.

(All probably part of the numbers for the three above)

The fact that 4 million Morrowind copies sold.

(All probably part of the numbers for the four above)

X million of console MMO players (unknown since no MMORPG has came to them since Xbox and PS2)

(All probably part of the numbers for the five above)

X millions migrating to ESO from other games.

So Random! - X millions migrating to ESO from eating ham and cheese toast!

 

dsanch Xfire Miniprofile
  IKShadow

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/08/05
Posts: 793

Support Bacteria - They''re the only culture some people have.

3/24/14 4:53:44 AM#492

lol @op 

ESO will have really bad player retention, and will become free2play within 1 year.

Futilez[Do You Have What It Takes ?]

  Knotwood

Novice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1117

 
OP  3/24/14 5:02:26 AM#493
Originally posted by NeuroDeus
Originally posted by Knotwood

ENTIRE MARKET OF ESO:

2-3 million MMO playerse looking for a new game.

Makes a bit of sense, although you have to admit a lot of MMO players although loving their current MMO are always ready to try something else

2.8 million PC ES fans who bought Skyrim.

Not all ES fans will by ESO, actually Hardcore Skyrim Players will continue to play Skyrim

17.2 million console ES fans who bought Skyrim.

Same as above, and are we sure about the 17.2 mill?

The fact that 4.8 million Oblivion copies sold.

(All probably part of the numbers for the three above)

The fact that 4 million Morrowind copies sold.

(All probably part of the numbers for the four above)

X million of console MMO players (unknown since no MMORPG has came to them since Xbox and PS2)

(All probably part of the numbers for the five above)

X millions migrating to ESO from other games.

So Random! - X millions migrating to ESO from eating ham and cheese toast!

 

Very nice, thank you for the honesty, your one of the first few who actually addressed each market, even if it was completely dismissive and lumping of consoles and PC players as one big melting pot. 

I'm curious if you could put a numter to each one of those categories as how many ESO will pick up from each of them as an educated guess.

  Aroukos

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/13/13
Posts: 584

3/24/14 5:13:30 AM#494
Originally posted by IKShadow

lol @op 

ESO will have really bad player retention, and will become free2play within 1 year.

 

Not in a year. Imo when WoD released, TESO will transform into a SWTOR like model. Thats why they already have a cash shop and a full race locked to everyone, except those who buy Collectors Edition.

  quixadhal

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/11/05
Posts: 197

3/24/14 5:22:48 AM#495

Not to pee in anyone's Cheerios or anything, but... how does 5 million beta accounts logically equate to 10 million sales?  I would suspect it's more likely the opposite that will happen.

 

MMO beta tests, these days, are not really tests.... they're marketing.  The fact that 5 million people have gotten into the test pretty much just means there are 5 million people who have enough interest in the game to give up an email address to Zenimax.  It costs them nothing.  Of those 5 million, how many even completed the 50G download?  How many played in more than a single beta weekend?

 

I would guess that far less than 50% of the beta testers will actually buy the game.  Why?  Because the beta test was free.  Some people will try it just to see.  Some will try it and decide it's not enough like Skyrim.  Some will decide it's too much like WoW.  Whatever the reasons, expecting 50% of the beta signups to buy the game is incredibly optimistic.

 

Let's be optimistic.  Let's say 2.5M will indeed buy it.  They'll tell their friends.  Let's be even more crazy optimistic and assume half of those friends ALSO get talked into buying it.  Now we hve 3.75M box sales.  How many of those will stay beyond the free 30 days?  How many will drop off at the 60 and 90 days points?  How many NEW players will arrive as others are leaving?

 

The picture I see is a launch with around 4M sales, perhaps peaking around 5M over the next few months, and then doing the usual slow falloff over the next year or two, until it hits free-to-play status around 2M subscribers.

 

  Aroukos

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/13/13
Posts: 584

3/24/14 5:32:01 AM#496
Originally posted by quixadhal

Not to pee in anyone's Cheerios or anything, but... how does 5 million beta accounts logically equate to 10 million sales?  I would suspect it's more likely the opposite that will happen.

 

MMO beta tests, these days, are not really tests.... they're marketing.  The fact that 5 million people have gotten into the test pretty much just means there are 5 million people who have enough interest in the game to give up an email address to Zenimax.  It costs them nothing.  Of those 5 million, how many even completed the 50G download?  How many played in more than a single beta weekend?

 

I would guess that far less than 50% of the beta testers will actually buy the game.  Why?  Because the beta test was free.  Some people will try it just to see.  Some will try it and decide it's not enough like Skyrim.  Some will decide it's too much like WoW.  Whatever the reasons, expecting 50% of the beta signups to buy the game is incredibly optimistic.

 

Let's be optimistic.  Let's say 2.5M will indeed buy it.  They'll tell their friends.  Let's be even more crazy optimistic and assume half of those friends ALSO get talked into buying it.  Now we hve 3.75M box sales.  How many of those will stay beyond the free 30 days?  How many will drop off at the 60 and 90 days points?  How many NEW players will arrive as others are leaving?

 

The picture I see is a launch with around 4M sales, perhaps peaking around 5M over the next few months, and then doing the usual slow falloff over the next year or two, until it hits free-to-play status around 2M subscribers.

 

Not 5m ppl but 5m accounts. Its not the same at all. I can create 100 accounts if i want :)

  Knotwood

Novice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1117

 
OP  3/24/14 10:37:38 AM#497

Well we can also look to other social media like Facebook and see the 1,771, 231  LIkes on it.   Not all of them can create multiple accounts so easy, not to mention who would make multiple accounts just to Like something on facebook.

 

Not to mention, not everyone who clicks a like button on Facebook signed up for beta either.  so the number on the PC's who like this game are probably much higher then that.   So my prediction of 2-3 million PC buyers at launch is NOT that silly when you look at all the sources.    5 million registered beta users, just tend to back up the fact that 2-3 million will be playing on PC at launch.

 

  Soki123

Elite Member

Joined: 8/10/08
Posts: 1341

3/24/14 10:40:21 AM#498
Lol, really. Almost everyone I know that likes ES games, absolutely hates TESO. We all registered, we re counted in those numbers, not one of us will buy or play this game. I can 100% guarantee, we re not the only group of people, in this world, that feels this way.
  Moar61

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/24/14
Posts: 246

3/24/14 10:47:39 AM#499

I can see 2-3 million people buying and playing, as I will be. If, by some chance, ESO has swayed the major press into thoroughly enjoying the game, where you see 9/10's across the board, then maybe we will see 10 million people. That would be pretty incredible. 

I just don't think that will happen though. Too much of the sites like gamespot or pc gamer put it down simply for being an mmo.

  Aroukos

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/13/13
Posts: 584

3/24/14 10:51:54 AM#500
Originally posted by Soki123
Lol, really. Almost everyone I know that likes ES games, absolutely hates TESO. We all registered, we re counted in those numbers, not one of us will buy or play this game. I can 100% guarantee, we re not the only group of people, in this world, that feels this way.

 

Same feelings here for me and my m8's ^^

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