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Elder Scrolls Online

Elder Scrolls Online 

General Discussion  » 5 million registered beta users! 10 million users by end of year.

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544 posts found
  rochrist

Hard Core Member

Joined: 2/17/06
Posts: 83

3/23/14 1:22:21 PM#441
Originally posted by Dihoru
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by elitero
Originally posted by Knotwood

agreeing with your own post ! yes this thread is full of win! or maybe you pulled a MMOExposed where he was trying to post on an alt and got caught. O_O

I would rather have seen your projection of subcribers by the end of the year using my equation rather then going off topic....

Your equation is overly idealized and misses out on key factors (retention, popularity, etc).

His 'equation' isn't actually an equation.

  Knotwood

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1110

 
OP  3/23/14 1:29:43 PM#442

How did I come up with this number? Heres how...

 

I took an equation of the entire market of ESO,  Like WoW's Asian market,  ESO has a Single player market that is 20 million that it can market to, instead of marketing to asia, it only has to market to its single player base.   It will not have to try to steal subs from the MMO market, it will bring in subs from the Single Player market.  Thus the Skyrim single player featuers you see in ESO.

 

I took the market of ESO, which is...


ENTIRE MARKET OF ESO:

2-3 million MMO playerse looking for a new game.

2.8 million PC ES fans who bought Skyrim.

17.2 million console ES fans who bought Skyrim.

The fact that 4.8 million Oblivion copies sold.

The fact that 4 million Morrowind copies sold.

X million of console MMO players (unknown since no MMORPG has came to them since Xbox and PS2)

X millions migrating to ESO from other gaems.

 

PLUS:

RETENTION RATE

How well the retention rate you think this company can sustain with its updates and content expansions. Also considering its retention rate with its Single Player base as their first MMO ever. MMO player retention + ES fan player base retention.

 

PLUS:

ADVERTISMENT

Amount of global advertisement. Will they run an advertisement campaign the size of WoW's with celebs, ect. world wide.

 

EQUALS:

10 million subs by the end of the year

 


and then used this data to make this conclusion...


I'm looking at 2-3 million MMO players, and around 3-4 million Elder Scrolls single player fans (based off of the morrowind and oblivion player base) to start with. With PC and Consoles. Over the course of the year, we'll see 5 million more Single players who love ES, and MMO players looking to play a new game, will join ESO on consoles and PC easily.


Its really that simple.

 

Zenimax only has to do three things...

1.  Keep the retention rate high with the high amount of content updates they promised.   Keep the game looking modernized with updates to graphics, and continue to also modernize the game systems.  Expand on quality of life of game and add housing. Maybe add a PVE Cyrodiil for an expansion.

 

2. Advertise heavily to their Skyrim single player base over this year, using celebs and any other social outlets.  Like they did with the trailer they had, and the celebs voice overs, ect.

 

3. Keep making the game more and more like Skyrim to please more of its single player base. Something they have already been working on, with adding more interactable objects in the world then previous beta tests.
 

 

  rochrist

Hard Core Member

Joined: 2/17/06
Posts: 83

3/23/14 1:43:07 PM#443

It's Morrowind, not 'Marrowind'. You've done that several times now. One would expect better from such an enthusiastic advocate. 

 

It doesn't matter how many times you post your 'equation', it's still meaningless.

  Knotwood

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1110

 
OP  3/23/14 1:47:21 PM#444
Originally posted by rochrist

It's Morrowind, not 'Marrowind'. You've done that several times now. One would expect better from such an enthusiastic advocate. 

 

It doesn't matter how many times you post your 'equation', it's still meaningless.

Perhaps, but why post anything at all if its meaningless. just move on. lol.  And thanks for the typo correction.

  Mothanos

Elite Member

Joined: 10/20/10
Posts: 1810

3/23/14 1:52:20 PM#445

In regards to those comments on WoW and their sub numbers:
WoW has around 7.4 million subs - Both ESO and Wildstar will reduce those numbers, and dont forget that Siege of Ogrimar is out for such a long time and there will be no new raid contend within the next 6 to 8 months before WOD is released.
WoW might take a blow that they have never felt before with such a long stretch without contend.

While i susepct ESO might score 3 million in their peak and Wildstar might hit 2 million i can already say these are my most optimistic scores for both games...
And lets be honest thats nothing to be ashamed for with so many choices out there both Free to play and buy to play.

Also Asian WoW players pay around 4 cent per hour.......not 10 cent....

http://speedtest.net/result/2112016336.png

  Dealdrick

Novice Member

Joined: 6/11/12
Posts: 85

3/23/14 1:57:44 PM#446
Originally posted by CazNeerg
To try to get back to the thread, the main point (in the context of this discussion) of trying to count western subs differently than eastern is that the OP assumes certain things about the size of the western MMO market which probably aren't reasonable to assume.  People like to throw around WoW's sub numbers over time, but if we remove the Asian ones from the total, it's entirely likely that the countries ESO is actually going to be releasing in have never, at any point, had 10 million simultaneous MMO subscriptions.  For ESO to do it would require there to be more people willing to subscribe to just this game than have ever been willing (in the relevant areas) to subscribe to any MMO at all.  As much as I love the game, it's not *that* good.  No game is.

This I agree with.  10 mill, 7.8 mill, doesn't matter, ESO won't get near that.  If they are holding over 1 million subs a year from now the game will be considered a HUGE success.

  Knotwood

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1110

 
OP  3/23/14 2:04:56 PM#447
Originally posted by Dealdrick
Originally posted by CazNeerg
To try to get back to the thread, the main point (in the context of this discussion) of trying to count western subs differently than eastern is that the OP assumes certain things about the size of the western MMO market which probably aren't reasonable to assume.  People like to throw around WoW's sub numbers over time, but if we remove the Asian ones from the total, it's entirely likely that the countries ESO is actually going to be releasing in have never, at any point, had 10 million simultaneous MMO subscriptions.  For ESO to do it would require there to be more people willing to subscribe to just this game than have ever been willing (in the relevant areas) to subscribe to any MMO at all.  As much as I love the game, it's not *that* good.  No game is.

This I agree with.  10 mill, 7.8 mill, doesn't matter, ESO won't get near that.  If they are holding over 1 million subs a year from now the game will be considered a HUGE success.

Indeed, Cazneerg is 100% correct, if you assume that all of your subs are comning from MMO players, I have only 2-3 million listed as MMO players in my equation, with 3-4 millon actually coming from the Single player world at launch. while you can see that ESO is been heavily single playertized by Zenimax over this last year, points to marketing to single players.   Single players and MMO player on consoles will be the main 5 million up to the end of the year, with possible millions coming from other games to join ESO in the MMO market.

 

So Cazneerg is 100% correct in saying there is not that many MMO players on the market right now, he does not realize the potention market and the already captured market of the single player market and MMO console crowd.  

  VeryDusty

Apprentice Member

Joined: 11/21/12
Posts: 54

3/23/14 2:13:06 PM#448
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by Dealdrick
Originally posted by CazNeerg
To try to get back to the thread, the main point (in the context of this discussion) of trying to count western subs differently than eastern is that the OP assumes certain things about the size of the western MMO market which probably aren't reasonable to assume.  People like to throw around WoW's sub numbers over time, but if we remove the Asian ones from the total, it's entirely likely that the countries ESO is actually going to be releasing in have never, at any point, had 10 million simultaneous MMO subscriptions.  For ESO to do it would require there to be more people willing to subscribe to just this game than have ever been willing (in the relevant areas) to subscribe to any MMO at all.  As much as I love the game, it's not *that* good.  No game is.

This I agree with.  10 mill, 7.8 mill, doesn't matter, ESO won't get near that.  If they are holding over 1 million subs a year from now the game will be considered a HUGE success.

Indeed, Cazneerg is 100% correct, if you assume that all of your subs are comning from MMO players, I have only 2-3 million listed as MMO players in my equation, with 3-4 millon actually coming from the Single player world at launch. while you can see that ESO is been heavily single playertized by Zenimax over this last year, points to marketing to single players.   Single players and MMO player on consoles will be the main 5 million up to the end of the year, with possible millions coming from other games to join ESO in the MMO market.

 

So Cazneerg is 100% correct in saying there is not that many MMO players on the market right now, he does not realize the potention market and the already captured market of the single player market and MMO console crowd.  

You are missing the point. ESO is expecting many of the subs to come from console players since they are porting to PS4 and Xbox One. That is why the game is so simplified in combat. It doesn't matter what the MMO market is, if they don't capture the console market it is dead.

 

This game will not pull players away from the games they have already subed to. WoW will not lose any more players than they already have. This game needs new players not old or veteran MMO players. You can tell by the type of combat they went to, an FPS -style in an MMO. No console players = dead ESO.

  Maelwydd

Elite Member

Joined: 2/26/09
Posts: 1103

3/23/14 2:14:43 PM#449

Just curious what you are trying to prove OP?

 

Your statement is made from pure guesswork. Over inflated estimates of the market, unrealistic pick-up rates, unrealistic retention rates, failure to take into account the differences between the SP and MMP markets....hell everything you are basing your statement on is done by sticking a finger in the air and calling it.

 

So seeing as you cannot prove anything and right or wrong isn't going to change anything, what is the point of this thread (Other then to simply bait and troll others into arguments for the sake of doing so which seems very likely from your replies...polite but troll bait none the less).

 

  Dealdrick

Novice Member

Joined: 6/11/12
Posts: 85

3/23/14 2:16:31 PM#450
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by Dealdrick
Originally posted by CazNeerg
To try to get back to the thread, the main point (in the context of this discussion) of trying to count western subs differently than eastern is that the OP assumes certain things about the size of the western MMO market which probably aren't reasonable to assume.  People like to throw around WoW's sub numbers over time, but if we remove the Asian ones from the total, it's entirely likely that the countries ESO is actually going to be releasing in have never, at any point, had 10 million simultaneous MMO subscriptions.  For ESO to do it would require there to be more people willing to subscribe to just this game than have ever been willing (in the relevant areas) to subscribe to any MMO at all.  As much as I love the game, it's not *that* good.  No game is.

This I agree with.  10 mill, 7.8 mill, doesn't matter, ESO won't get near that.  If they are holding over 1 million subs a year from now the game will be considered a HUGE success.

Indeed, Cazneerg is 100% correct, if you assume that all of your subs are comning from MMO players, I have only 2-3 million listed as MMO players in my equation, with 3-4 millon actually coming from the Single player world at launch. while you can see that ESO is been heavily single playertized by Zenimax over this last year, points to marketing to single players.   Single players and MMO player on consoles will be the main 5 million up to the end of the year, with possible millions coming from other games to join ESO in the MMO market.

 

So Cazneerg is 100% correct in saying there is not that many MMO players on the market right now, he does not realize the potention market and the already captured market of the single player market and MMO console crowd.  

Aren't you ignoring some other big events for MMOs this year?  Wildstar will prolly launch by this fall, WoW's next expansion, possible western release of Arche Age; all of these events will pull players from ESO.  This is also assuming a smooth launch, fixed quest bugs and functional PvP.  With so many options coming down the pipe, the first impression of ESO will be huge.....

  Knotwood

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1110

 
OP  3/23/14 2:21:48 PM#451
Originally posted by VeryDusty

You are missing the point.

Actually no I'm not, I just agreed with all of your points.

ESO is expecting many of the subs to come from console players since they are porting to PS4 and Xbox One. That is why the game is so simplified in combat. It doesn't matter what the MMO market is, if they don't capture the console market it is dead.

100% true, this is the main player base of ESO, its sub numbers will be atleast two times to three times as great as PC's.

 

This game will not pull players away from the games they have already subed to. WoW will not lose any more players than they already have. This game needs new players not old or veteran MMO players. You can tell by the type of combat they went to, an FPS -style in an MMO. No console players = dead ESO.

It will pull only a few million max from other games over the next year, it wont pull all of them, that is correct.   2-3 million are the free-lancer MMO market for PC, those players will play ESO until they eat it up fully and their rentention rates will depend on how well the content is updated and expanded.

  Manasong

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/25/14
Posts: 167

3/23/14 2:31:19 PM#452
Why is this thread still going, why are people still talking, where did all these numbers come from?! My brain hurts, I can't read this thread anymore, I tried, but... Why are people still here...
  Bigdaddyx

Elite Member

Joined: 5/24/10
Posts: 1361

3/23/14 2:33:37 PM#453
Originally posted by Manasong
Why is this thread still going, why are people still talking, where did all these numbers come from?! My brain hurts, I can't read this thread anymore, I tried, but... Why are people still here...

People are still here because it is like watching a train wreck; You know it is morbid but it is also fascinating and you can't help but stare.

 

  Knotwood

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1110

 
OP  3/23/14 2:41:45 PM#454
Originally posted by Dealdrick

Aren't you ignoring some other big events for MMOs this year?  Wildstar will prolly launch by this fall, WoW's next expansion, possible western release of Arche Age; all of these events will pull players from ESO.  This is also assuming a smooth launch, fixed quest bugs and functional PvP.  With so many options coming down the pipe, the first impression of ESO will be huge.....

These two games upcoming will compate with ESO's 2-3 million PC gamers and the ones that migrate to ESO from other games.  Both of these games will not be on console and will not be competing for those players.  So the impact will be small felt.

 

I couldn't possibly project how many out of those 2-3 million will leave, but that's where the retention rate comes in.   Will ESO do whats needed to reteain the 2-3 million initial MMO PC gamers?  It will be something to see.  I think the announcement of housing and a PVE Cyrodiil might be needed to hang onto a lot of those subscribers against Arch Age.

 

I have my personal views on both Archage and Wildstar and their pull from ESO, I think Arch Age will be the biggest threat to ESO, but Idk how big of a threat that will be, remains to be seen closer to that date. Wildstar has a minimal effect because of the big differences in age groups both games are aiming for.

 

Archage will most likely take from ESO, and Wildstar will most likely take from EQ Next.

  Dihoru

Elite Member

Joined: 1/11/06
Posts: 2723

3/23/14 2:51:51 PM#455
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by Dealdrick

Aren't you ignoring some other big events for MMOs this year?  Wildstar will prolly launch by this fall, WoW's next expansion, possible western release of Arche Age; all of these events will pull players from ESO.  This is also assuming a smooth launch, fixed quest bugs and functional PvP.  With so many options coming down the pipe, the first impression of ESO will be huge.....

These two games upcoming will compate with ESO's 2-3 million PC gamers and the ones that migrate to ESO from other games.  Both of these games will not be on console and will not be competing for those players.  So the impact will be small felt.

 

I couldn't possibly project how many out of those 2-3 million will leave, but that's where the retention rate comes in.   Will ESO do whats needed to reteain the 2-3 million initial MMO PC gamers?  It will be something to see.  I think the announcement of housing and a PVE Cyrodiil might be needed to hang onto a lot of those subscribers against Arch Age.

 

I have my personal views on both Archage and Wildstar and their pull from ESO, I think Arch Age will be the biggest threat to ESO, but Idk how big of a threat that will be, remains to be seen closer to that date. Wildstar has a minimal effect because of the big differences in age groups both games are aiming for.

 

Archage will most likely take from ESO, and Wildstar will most likely take from EQ Next.

One sentence shoots apart your logic: Populations are not separate.

Here's another though for good measure: MMOs have rarely worked on consoles for any amount of time outside of Asia.

 

  Knotwood

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1110

 
OP  3/23/14 2:57:00 PM#456
Originally posted by Dihoru

One sentence shoots apart your logic: Populations are not separate.

Here's another though for good measure: MMOs have rarely worked on consoles for any amount of time outside of Asia.

 

To me that remains to be seen, theres no real way of finding that out yet.  That is why I said it was a personal view on populations

  Bad.dog

Elite Member

Joined: 5/20/10
Posts: 908

3/23/14 2:59:42 PM#457
Originally posted by Zalmon
Originally posted by Bad.dog
Funny thing is there never is any actual proof of "How much money WOW makes in a year " ....I've been looking since 2008 and have not see anything showing the actual profits from WOW ....some things just make you hmmmmm when no proof can be found .

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130508006734/en/Activision-Blizzard-Announces-Better-Than-Expected-Quarter-2013-Financial

Not that hard to find. Remember a big company like Blizzard can not just lie to its investors and shareholders and get away with it. It is a very serious offense. 

Actually that didn't do one thing for me as far as telling me the amounts of money WOW brings in ....it shows Activision makes much more money from console games than pc games by subscription terms but the actual money made by WOW itself is still  a mystery

  Dihoru

Elite Member

Joined: 1/11/06
Posts: 2723

3/23/14 3:01:46 PM#458
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by Dihoru

One sentence shoots apart your logic: Populations are not separate.

Here's another though for good measure: MMOs have rarely worked on consoles for any amount of time outside of Asia.

 

To me that remains to be seen, theres no real way of finding that out yet.  That is why I said it was a personal view on populations

Nope, mouse and keyboard are you standard control interfaces for a MMORPG like ESO, a controller works but only so far, and while by what I hear the PS4 can support keyboard and mouse (and the Xbone I assume) you also have to keep in mind one rather catastrophic fact about those two consoles: their populations will be separate from each other AND the PC one by what I know so yeah your prediction and entire logic train is DOA.

  ozmono

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/12/06
Posts: 1023

3/23/14 3:08:15 PM#459
Originally posted by baphamet

 


Originally posted by ozmono
This thread is exactly why I was trying to stay away from ESO subforums in the lead up to launch. Over excitement and over support to the point of being delusional. I saw the thread title pop up and I couldn't resist seeing the rest of it for myself. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad, especially the part where the OP agrees with himself. On the plus side he seems to be one of the only people doing that, so a little credit is due to the other ESO fanboys I suppose.

 

so what about the countless negative posts that are just as ridiculous as this?

sure this thread is no better than those but this is just one thread and i haven't seen too many others like it.

if i was to make a thread claiming ESO will only have 10k subs a month after launch i bet there wouldn't be the same uproar you see over this post.

i also bet many would agree with me lol

The opposite end of the spectrum is another good reason to stay away. That is what I've done for the most part, so I'm in no position to claim which is worse nor do I want to open that can of worms. It's the same deal every major launch. Lots of "fans and haters" battling it out in a pointless war of words.

  Knotwood

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1110

 
OP  3/23/14 3:10:30 PM#460
Originally posted by Dihoru
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by Dihoru

One sentence shoots apart your logic: Populations are not separate.

Here's another though for good measure: MMOs have rarely worked on consoles for any amount of time outside of Asia.

 

To me that remains to be seen, theres no real way of finding that out yet.  That is why I said it was a personal view on populations

Nope, mouse and keyboard are you standard control interfaces for a MMORPG like ESO, a controller works but only so far, and while by what I hear the PS4 can support keyboard and mouse (and the Xbone I assume) you also have to keep in mind one rather catastrophic fact about those two consoles: their populations will be separate from each other AND the PC one by what I know so yeah your prediction and entire logic train is DOA.

I thought you were talking about age populations, my bad.   You are talking about PC and console popluations not being separate.  

 

I have to say Console ESO is safe on most loss simply because of what consoles have to choose from for MMO's, that may change in the future but it doesn't with ESO.   Xbox One has FFXIV and ESO.   PS4 has FFXIV, ESO and EQ Next coming. 

 

Not a lot of options, and since a lot of single player RPG fans of Elder Scrolls are very console based, and the fact that Elder scrolls games have already  been made for consoles, the controls will be no different then you seen in the past.  so by you logic that somehow controls have anything to do with an IP that has proven to sell 4-4.8 million previous titles and a 17.2 million Skyrim games on consoles with the same type of controller set up, is DOA.  pardon he pun. lol.

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