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Elder Scrolls Online

Elder Scrolls Online 

General Discussion  » 5 million registered beta users! 10 million users by end of year.

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542 posts found
  CazNeerg

Novice Member

Joined: 8/06/04
Posts: 2220

"So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb." Dark Helmet

3/23/14 12:17:35 PM#421
Originally posted by Dealdrick

Completely useless??  Dramatic much?  Technically, they are subscribers, that is the definition of "subscribe."  Different structure, yes, completely useless? ROFL

If a company offering a game with standard pricing tells us they have 1 million US subscribers that tells us they are receiving subscription revenue (depending on how many months at a time people pay for) between 13 and 15 million a month.    If a company tells us they have 1 million Asian subscribers, it tells us basically nothing.  They could be making a million a month, they could be making a hundred million, the number of subscribers by itself is, in that case, useless.  If a company gives us the total subscribers, without differentiating between western and eastern, the number is again, useless.

And remember, this thread is about what ESO can/should expect.  It's not being sold in Asia.  So the only relevant numbers from any other game are the numbers from countries where ESO will actually be sold.  With that in mind, it is highly doubtful that the entire (western) MMO market has ever had a *total* of 10 million active subscriptions, let alone that many in a single game.

Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.

  Bigdaddyx

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/24/10
Posts: 2047

3/23/14 12:19:42 PM#422
Originally posted by VeryDusty
Originally posted by Dealdrick
Originally posted by CazNeerg
Originally posted by Dealdrick

Not in any way comparable?  Seriously?  A subscription is just paying for game time, pretty sure they are doing the same thing in Asia.  Just because the cost and time duration is in different measurements does not mean its not the same basic thing, paying for access. 

Subscription numbers are used to estimate revenue and measure success.  Lumping Asian "subs" in with western subs renders the numbers Blizzard releases completely useless.

Completely useless??  Dramatic much?  Technically, they are subscribers, that is the definition of "subscribe."  Different structure, yes, completely useless? ROFL

They are useless. If a player pays to play 1 hr and that is it, just to try the game, and he is considered a subscriber, that is the definition of useless. OR, the person who pays to play 1 hr a month, is he/she considered 12 subscribers since he/she did it once a month? Unless you know HOW they count - the numbers are just that numbers without meaning.

umm..i pay 15 bucks a month for a MMO and only play a week or maybe two in a month does that mean they shouldn't count my sub in the total number?

How is that any different than someone paying per hour (infact paying more than me) over the period of a month?

  Phry

Elite Member

Joined: 7/01/04
Posts: 5855

3/23/14 12:19:48 PM#423
Originally posted by VeryDusty
Originally posted by Dealdrick
Originally posted by CazNeerg
Originally posted by Dealdrick

Not in any way comparable?  Seriously?  A subscription is just paying for game time, pretty sure they are doing the same thing in Asia.  Just because the cost and time duration is in different measurements does not mean its not the same basic thing, paying for access. 

Subscription numbers are used to estimate revenue and measure success.  Lumping Asian "subs" in with western subs renders the numbers Blizzard releases completely useless.

Completely useless??  Dramatic much?  Technically, they are subscribers, that is the definition of "subscribe."  Different structure, yes, completely useless? ROFL

They are useless. If a player pays to play 1 hr and that is it, just to try the game, and he is considered a subscriber, that is the definition of useless. OR, the person who pays to play 1 hr a month, is he/she considered 12 subscribers since he/she did it once a month? Unless you know HOW they count - the numbers are just that numbers without meaning.

just 1 hour? have you any idea how manic those guys can get over Online gaming, its more likely they spend more than the average western player for game-time on a monthly basis than a western player does for their monthly sub. Last time i checked Blizzard wasn't a charity, if their in the Asian market, its because it's a profitable one, which it wouldn't be if they were only playing for an hour a month

  Dealdrick

Novice Member

Joined: 6/11/12
Posts: 86

3/23/14 12:20:26 PM#424
Originally posted by VeryDusty
Originally posted by Dealdrick
Originally posted by CazNeerg
Originally posted by Dealdrick

Not in any way comparable?  Seriously?  A subscription is just paying for game time, pretty sure they are doing the same thing in Asia.  Just because the cost and time duration is in different measurements does not mean its not the same basic thing, paying for access. 

Subscription numbers are used to estimate revenue and measure success.  Lumping Asian "subs" in with western subs renders the numbers Blizzard releases completely useless.

Completely useless??  Dramatic much?  Technically, they are subscribers, that is the definition of "subscribe."  Different structure, yes, completely useless? ROFL

They are useless. If a player pays to play 1 hr and that is it, just to try the game, and he is considered a subscriber, that is the definition of useless. OR, the person who pays to play 1 hr a month, is he/she considered 12 subscribers since he/she did it once a month? Unless you know HOW they count - the numbers are just that numbers without meaning.

That is certainly not the definition of useless.  With this flawed logic, I could argue that western sub numbers are useless because they don't account for possible micro-transactions or cash shop revenue.  

  User Deleted
3/23/14 12:20:45 PM#425
Originally posted by CazNeerg
 

Seriously, given the job they have done so far you think it is reasonable to assume ZOS has a PR team smart enough to brag about large pre-order numbers?  One thing we do know is that the only limited edition version of the game (the PC version anyway) appears to be sold out everywhere, and has been for weeks.  According to vgchartz.com, across all three platforms there are a quarter million pre-orders as of last week.  And that is just physical copies.  Going by the anecdotal evidence of forums like this, most of the people who are getting the game are ordering digital.

EDIT: None of which should be taken as me defending the ridiculous premise of this thread.

VGChartz are actually not the best way to compared in this situation actually (funny, because i was just checking them out after making my comment out of curiosity ). SWTOR had 600k before launch, and GW2 250k. ESO has 150k PC plus 100k on consoles, like you say, but, GW2 sold 2 million copies in 2 weeks, while TOR took 2-3 months.

What i'm simply saying is that if ESO had an enourmous amount of pre-orders, they'd announced it. Yes, their PR team makes some really, really stupid moves, but you're going to tell me a professional team wouldn't announced 2M or more po's? It'd be the biggest pre-orderded mmorpg ever (maybe besides WOW, but i'm not sure).

The reason i use 1M is because it's a sort off "barrier" to break. Don't get me wrong. I fully expect ESO to sell 1M+ eventually, but if they haven't even reched that amount of pre-orders, the OP's simply wrong. Not that that wasn't hard to figure out.

However, i myself don't know how studios get their pre-order data. Can they access the info from other retailers and sites, besides their own whenever they want? If so, they should have the data by now and make the announcement. 

  firefly2003

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/16/08
Posts: 2596

3/23/14 12:23:08 PM#426
Originally posted by Patchez
Originally posted by Aroukos
Originally posted by Wighty

Made up statistics incoming...

5 million registered accounts probably means about 800,000 people considering those who likely signed up more than once to better their odds.

I would suspect that ESO will launch and have 600k people purchase the game.

 

After first month there will likely be a 60% retention rate which is considerably high for a sub game...

 

By year end they will have 250k - 350k  players dedicated and will be considered a success.

 

Agree 100%

I can see it pushing up towards 2 million sales and I think at the end of year 1 the game will sustain 400k, maybe 500k subscribers. That WILL be a huge success, no doubt.

 

I personally think the console thing is a bit of a red herring because (purely based on what I am reading around the net) the vast majority of that pool of Skyrim players do not actually like ESO, it is not what they actually wanted.

 

It seems what they actually wanted was Skyrim with Co-Op and PvP....kind of like Dark Souls....

 

I also think the pricing structure will be a big issue for console players.

That and the fact you have to have PS Plus and Xbox Live to play multiplayer anything with a few exceptions I doubt ESO on console will be an exception so there another cost on top of sub for console gamers

  Dealdrick

Novice Member

Joined: 6/11/12
Posts: 86

3/23/14 12:25:19 PM#427
Originally posted by CazNeerg
Originally posted by Dealdrick

Completely useless??  Dramatic much?  Technically, they are subscribers, that is the definition of "subscribe."  Different structure, yes, completely useless? ROFL

If a company offering a game with standard pricing tells us they have 1 million US subscribers that tells us they are receiving subscription revenue (depending on how many months at a time people pay for) between 13 and 15 million a month.    If a company tells us they have 1 million Asian subscribers, it tells us basically nothing.  They could be making a million a month, they could be making a hundred million, the number of subscribers by itself is, in that case, useless.  If a company gives us the total subscribers, without differentiating between western and eastern, the number is again, useless.

And remember, this thread is about what ESO can/should expect.  It's not being sold in Asia.  So the only relevant numbers from any other game are the numbers from countries where ESO will actually be sold.  With that in mind, it is highly doubtful that the entire (western) MMO market has ever had a *total* of 10 million active subscriptions, let alone that many in a single game.

Ya, go figure, people paying a company for game time is a source of revenue for that company.  Just because you are having trouble understanding different pay structures for different amounts of time does not somehow mean it is not a subscription. Paying money for game time = subscription, end of story.

And please, don't point out what the thread is about when you were the one wanting to break-down the difference between Asian and Western subs with WoW's model.  If you didn't want it discussed, you shouldn't have discussed it......

 

  CazNeerg

Novice Member

Joined: 8/06/04
Posts: 2220

"So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb." Dark Helmet

3/23/14 12:26:24 PM#428
Originally posted by Bigdaddyx

umm..i pay 15 bucks a month for a MMO and only play a week or maybe two in a month does that mean they shouldn't count my sub in the total number?

How is that any different than someone paying per hour (infact paying more than me) over the period of a month?

Your sub is relevant, because we know what it is worth.  There is no point in releasing numbers with no context that allows for those numbers to be judged.  We know that any given US subscriber provides sub revenue of 13-15 dollars a month.  That is a tight enough range for us to be able to use western sub numbers to reach useful conclusions.  Pay by the hour players?  Releasing just the sub numbers, without any other context, tells us nothing.  Releasing only total subscriber numbers, without an east/west breakdown, tells us nothing.

Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.

  Bad.dog

Novice Member

Joined: 5/20/10
Posts: 1160

3/23/14 12:29:33 PM#429
Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
Originally posted by Carnicide
Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
Originally posted by Bad.dog
Well to be honest the OP isn't any more foolish than WOW fanbois that run around claiming 7 million subs

Ughh not this BS again...how many times this has been discussed? only because Asians pay per hour doesn't mean their subscription is irrelevant compared to western subscribers. In the end Asians end up paying even more on monthly basis.

And by the way it is 10 million not 7.

Its up to 7.8 million... not sure where you got 10 million. better luck next time!

http://wow.joystiq.com/2014/02/06/world-of-warcraft-up-to-7-8-million-subscribers/

 

Ok thanks for correcting my number. It is 7.8, but that wasn't the point i was trying to make.

LOL  I guess actual facts don't have much influence in any of your post than ? It's just an option you use to pass your opinion of as fact perhaps , it's rather funny that distracters from a game just use opinions disguised as facts and supporters have to use actual facts to back up an opinion .Perhaps all post that don't fit your agenda are BS ?

  Bigdaddyx

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/24/10
Posts: 2047

3/23/14 12:33:18 PM#430
Originally posted by CazNeerg
Originally posted by Bigdaddyx

umm..i pay 15 bucks a month for a MMO and only play a week or maybe two in a month does that mean they shouldn't count my sub in the total number?

How is that any different than someone paying per hour (infact paying more than me) over the period of a month?

Your sub is relevant, because we know what it is worth.  There is no point in releasing numbers with no context that allows for those numbers to be judged.  We know that any given US subscriber provides sub revenue of 13-15 dollars a month.  That is a tight enough range for us to be able to use western sub numbers to reach useful conclusions.  Pay by the hour players?  Releasing just the sub numbers, without any other context, tells us nothing.  Releasing only total subscriber numbers, without an east/west breakdown, tells us nothing.

And Blizzard knows the worth of what Asians are paying and how much so nope it is not ir relevant.

Last month i logged in total of 5 hours in WOW but i was still counted in total sub numbers. Now on the other hand an Asian player probably payed maybe tripple the amount of money i paid and yet he is irrelevant because we are not getting a fixed amount on monthly basis?

WOW releases revenue and sub numbers to share holders every year...and i am sure you know what happens when you give false info to shareholders. 

  Bigdaddyx

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/24/10
Posts: 2047

3/23/14 12:35:45 PM#431
Originally posted by Bad.dog
Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
Originally posted by Carnicide
Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
Originally posted by Bad.dog
Well to be honest the OP isn't any more foolish than WOW fanbois that run around claiming 7 million subs

Ughh not this BS again...how many times this has been discussed? only because Asians pay per hour doesn't mean their subscription is irrelevant compared to western subscribers. In the end Asians end up paying even more on monthly basis.

And by the way it is 10 million not 7.

Its up to 7.8 million... not sure where you got 10 million. better luck next time!

http://wow.joystiq.com/2014/02/06/world-of-warcraft-up-to-7-8-million-subscribers/

 

Ok thanks for correcting my number. It is 7.8, but that wasn't the point i was trying to make.

LOL  I guess actual facts don't have much influence in any of your post than ? It's just an option you use to pass your opinion of as fact perhaps , it's rather funny that distracters from a game just use opinions disguised as facts and supporters have to use actual facts to back up an opinion .Perhaps all post that don't fit your agenda are BS ?

What facts? that 7.8 million sub number is imaginary and made up? isn't that what you were trying to say? what facts have you given to us to prove that Blizzard is lying? let me guess i am just supposed to take your word for it right?

Talk about irony in accusing me for using opinions disguised as facts.

  Phry

Elite Member

Joined: 7/01/04
Posts: 5855

3/23/14 12:43:13 PM#432
Originally posted by CazNeerg
Originally posted by Bigdaddyx

umm..i pay 15 bucks a month for a MMO and only play a week or maybe two in a month does that mean they shouldn't count my sub in the total number?

How is that any different than someone paying per hour (infact paying more than me) over the period of a month?

Your sub is relevant, because we know what it is worth.  There is no point in releasing numbers with no context that allows for those numbers to be judged.  We know that any given US subscriber provides sub revenue of 13-15 dollars a month.  That is a tight enough range for us to be able to use western sub numbers to reach useful conclusions.  Pay by the hour players?  Releasing just the sub numbers, without any other context, tells us nothing.  Releasing only total subscriber numbers, without an east/west breakdown, tells us nothing.

The problem is your making guesses without access to any actual information, about how those numbers are calculated. How for instance, do you know that Blizzard doesn't calculate numbers of players in the Asian market, by the amount spent. Though theoretically that might mean that some players are counted more than once, just because they spend more. Its more likely to assume that the number estimates are based on revenue rather than someone logging in for the odd hour a month, assuming that even happens. Which is the problem with your statements, their no more valid than my own because neither of us has access to all the data, and i doubt either of us would understand it even if we did, however, there are people who actually do have access to all the data, and are able to make accurate calculations based on them, to give a valid figure, they work at Blizzard

  Bad.dog

Novice Member

Joined: 5/20/10
Posts: 1160

3/23/14 12:47:30 PM#433
Funny thing is there never is any actual proof of "How much money WOW makes in a year " ....I've been looking since 2008 and have not see anything showing the actual profits from WOW ....some things just make you hmmmmm when no proof can be found .
  Zalmon

Apprentice Member

Joined: 12/02/11
Posts: 338

3/23/14 12:54:03 PM#434
Originally posted by Bad.dog
Funny thing is there never is any actual proof of "How much money WOW makes in a year " ....I've been looking since 2008 and have not see anything showing the actual profits from WOW ....some things just make you hmmmmm when no proof can be found .

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130508006734/en/Activision-Blizzard-Announces-Better-Than-Expected-Quarter-2013-Financial

Not that hard to find. Remember a big company like Blizzard can not just lie to its investors and shareholders and get away with it. It is a very serious offense. 

  CazNeerg

Novice Member

Joined: 8/06/04
Posts: 2220

"So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb." Dark Helmet

3/23/14 12:54:11 PM#435

Originally posted by Bigdaddyx

And Blizzard knows the worth of what Asians are paying and how much so nope it is not ir relevant.

Last month i logged in total of 5 hours in WOW but i was still counted in total sub numbers. Now on the other hand an Asian player probably payed maybe tripple the amount of money i paid and yet he is irrelevant because we are not getting a fixed amount on monthly basis?

WOW releases revenue and sub numbers to share holders every year...and i am sure you know what happens when you give false info to shareholders. 

Something doesn't have to be false to be deceptive.  And I never said they shouldn't be measured.  I said they should be measured separately.  Western sub numbers, combined with a companies published subscription prices, give us information about the company's performance.  Eastern sub numbers, without any information about the the number of hours played, give us no information about the company's performance.  Combining eastern and western numbers into one number for reporting purposes renders that number functionally useless by removing any context which allows it to be judged.

Originally posted by Bigdaddyx

What facts? that 7.8 million sub number is imaginary and made up? isn't that what you were trying to say? what facts have you given to us to prove that Blizzard is lying? let me guess i am just supposed to take your word for it right?

Talk about irony in accusing me for using opinions disguised as facts.

It's not made up, but it's not useful either.  "4 million US subscriptions, 1 million EU, and 2.8 million pay-by-the-hour Asian subscriptions" would be useful information.  By combining them all into one number with no breakdown, you pollute the data set.

Originally posted by Phry

The problem is your making guesses without access to any actual information, about how those numbers are calculated. How for instance, do you know that Blizzard doesn't calculate numbers of players in the Asian market, by the amount spent. Though theoretically that might mean that some players are counted more than once, just because they spend more. Its more likely to assume that the number estimates are based on revenue rather than someone logging in for the odd hour a month, assuming that even happens. Which is the problem with your statements, their no more valid than my own because neither of us has access to all the data, and i doubt either of us would understand it even if we did, however, there are people who actually do have access to all the data, and are able to make accurate calculations based on them, to give a valid figure, they work at Blizzard

Actually, Blizzard has said specifically how they count pay-by-the-hour players.  Anybody who plays as much as a single hour in a given month is counted as a subscriber for that month.  So someone who spends 1 dollar in a month is counted the same as someone spending 13-15, and someone spending 100 dollars in a month is counted the same as someone spending 13-15.  Blizzard's choice to report only total "subscribers" makes their published subscriber numbers completely useless in estimating their revenue.

Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.

  Bad.dog

Novice Member

Joined: 5/20/10
Posts: 1160

3/23/14 12:59:46 PM#436
Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
Originally posted by Bad.dog
Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
Originally posted by Carnicide
Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
Originally posted by Bad.dog
Well to be honest the OP isn't any more foolish than WOW fanbois that run around claiming 7 million subs

Ughh not this BS again...how many times this has been discussed? only because Asians pay per hour doesn't mean their subscription is irrelevant compared to western subscribers. In the end Asians end up paying even more on monthly basis.

And by the way it is 10 million not 7.

Its up to 7.8 million... not sure where you got 10 million. better luck next time!

http://wow.joystiq.com/2014/02/06/world-of-warcraft-up-to-7-8-million-subscribers/

 

Ok thanks for correcting my number. It is 7.8, but that wasn't the point i was trying to make.

LOL  I guess actual facts don't have much influence in any of your post than ? It's just an option you use to pass your opinion of as fact perhaps , it's rather funny that distracters from a game just use opinions disguised as facts and supporters have to use actual facts to back up an opinion .Perhaps all post that don't fit your agenda are BS ?

What facts? that 7.8 million sub number is imaginary and made up? isn't that what you were trying to say? what facts have you given to us to prove that Blizzard is lying? let me guess i am just supposed to take your word for it right?

Talk about irony in accusing me for using opinions disguised as facts.

You said 10 million ,,,,,that's fact not fiction . Give or take 7 or 8 million you probably have the facts right ,better to play hand grenades then darts when quoting numbers as facts

  Bigdaddyx

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/24/10
Posts: 2047

3/23/14 1:03:17 PM#437
Originally posted by Bad.dog
 

You said 10 million ,,,,,that's fact not fiction . Give or take 7 or 8 million you probably have the facts right ,better to play hand grenades then darts when quoting numbers as facts

Um but my post wasn't about 7 million or 10 million but you calling people foolish for believing in Blizzard's information. (got any facts to prove Blizzard is lying?)

I simply made a mistake in saying that actual number is 10 million, when real number is around 7.8. And i also admitted my mistake and thanked the poster for correcting me.

  CazNeerg

Novice Member

Joined: 8/06/04
Posts: 2220

"So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb." Dark Helmet

3/23/14 1:06:30 PM#438
To try to get back to the thread, the main point (in the context of this discussion) of trying to count western subs differently than eastern is that the OP assumes certain things about the size of the western MMO market which probably aren't reasonable to assume.  People like to throw around WoW's sub numbers over time, but if we remove the Asian ones from the total, it's entirely likely that the countries ESO is actually going to be releasing in have never, at any point, had 10 million simultaneous MMO subscriptions.  For ESO to do it would require there to be more people willing to subscribe to just this game than have ever been willing (in the relevant areas) to subscribe to any MMO at all.  As much as I love the game, it's not *that* good.  No game is.

Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.

  rochrist

Hard Core Member

Joined: 2/17/06
Posts: 108

3/23/14 1:19:16 PM#439
Originally posted by Knotwood

Almost everyone I see posted here, completely forgot about Elder Scrolls Single Player base that will be playing this game.   Their 20 million single player base is the market of target here with the PVE.   It has already won over the PVE fans in MMO's.  The last group of players they are going after are PVP players in MMO's,  which are the hardest ones to please in any game.

 

I think almost everyone here has thought ONLY in numbers of MMO market.  Almost everyone here  has complelty ignored the console players, and their ES base fan single players.   The MMO market has 2-3 million for ESO to soak up.   The single players who are ES fans or bought skyrim amount to 2.8 million on the PC, and the Console ES fans or bought Skyrim total 17.2 million.   We also have to look at the fact of those skyrim fans we have 4.8 million who bought Oblivion as well.  

 

When you take into account ALL sources of customers for this game you have to have ALL factors of the equation:

 

ENTIRE MARKET OF ESO:

2-3 million MMO playerse looking for a new game. 

2.8 million PC ES fans who bought Skyrim.

17.2 million console ES fans who bought Skyrim.

The fact that 4.8 million Oblivion copies sold.

The fact that 4 million Marrowind copies sold.

X million of console MMO players (unknown since no MMORPG has came to them since Xbox and PS2)

X millions migrating to ESO from other gaems.

 

PLUS:

RETENTION RATE

How well the retention rate you think this company can sustain with its updates and content expansions.  Also considering its retention rate with its Single Player base as their first MMO ever.   MMO player retention +  ES fan player base retention.

 

PLUS:

ADVERTISMENT

Amount of global advertisement.  Will they run an advertisement campaign the size of WoW's with celebs, ect. world wide.

 

EQUALS:

10 million subs by the end of the year

 

 

Yeah, no. I'm part of the Elder Scrolls player base. I have been since Daggerfall. I wouldn't touch this thing with a 10 league polearm.

  rochrist

Hard Core Member

Joined: 2/17/06
Posts: 108

3/23/14 1:22:21 PM#440
Originally posted by Dihoru
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by elitero
Originally posted by Knotwood

agreeing with your own post ! yes this thread is full of win! or maybe you pulled a MMOExposed where he was trying to post on an alt and got caught. O_O

I would rather have seen your projection of subcribers by the end of the year using my equation rather then going off topic....

Your equation is overly idealized and misses out on key factors (retention, popularity, etc).

His 'equation' isn't actually an equation.

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