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Elder Scrolls Online

Elder Scrolls Online 

General Discussion  » 5 million registered beta users! 10 million users by end of year.

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544 posts found
  niceguy3978

Elite Member

Joined: 6/14/06
Posts: 2016

3/20/14 6:32:02 PM#181
Originally posted by Knotwood

http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en/news/post/2014/03/14/eso-road-ahead

 

Here is a few statements I would like to talk about from this article:

 

1): "If you’re reading this, you’re probably one of the 5 million people that have registered for the ESO beta, and likely participated in one of our large beta tests."

My thoughts: That is a HUGE number of registerd beta testers, if even a fraction of them buy the game, were seeing going to see at least 5 million starting. I don't recall a game in history with this many registered beta testers. The testers numbers tend to be lower then the people who buy a game, so How many do you think are going to buy the game, if were seeing that many testers alone?

 

 

2): "Based on the existing number of our beta signups and because we anticipate that the ESO community will continue to grow after launch, we plan to add capacity to keep up with demand in both our North American and European datacenters."

My thoughts: They looked at those beta numbers and expect it to grow even larger at launch. I'm saying 10 million in the first year easily after seeing those beta registration numbers.

 

 

3): And just to be fully prepared, we are adding overflow servers in the event we get even more players on day one than we are now forecasting.

My thoughts: They have a plan to make sure there is overflow servers for millions more on day one if there is too many people. Something I think future games are going to need considering the larger number of gamers we are starting to see.

 


4): If player demand overwhelms our planned capacity and a queue has to be formed, we will offer waiting players the option to begin playing right away on an overflow server.

My thoughts: They are doing this part right. people don't want to wait in ques, so this is a great option. Everything you get on an overflow server will allow you to bring back to the megaservers. Only problem is you will not have a friend list because its not hooked up to the main database.

 


5): And as many of you have asked, the answer is yes to one additional benefit – we will offer various subscription discount packs beginning on April 4.

My thoughts: I sure hope they offer a lifetime... This game is going to be around for a very long time.

 


So there it is. Some pretty solid reasons this game is going to be 10 million in the first year. Not only are they showing they have world wide players coming to the game in droves but they are prepared for it also. You take that and add it to the A+ customer service they have, we got ourselves a 10 million sub game in the first year easily.

 

Maybe this was already answered, but do you mean they will sell 10 million boxes, or do you mean they will have 10 million subs?  

  Knotwood

Novice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1117

 
OP  3/20/14 6:33:47 PM#182
Originally posted by niceguy3978
Originally posted by Knotwood

Maybe this was already answered, but do you mean they will sell 10 million boxes, or do you mean they will have 10 million subs?  

Subs definitely.

  Teala

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 6/16/04
Posts: 7440

"Really officer, they're herbs."

3/20/14 6:35:07 PM#183
Originally posted by Bannuk
Originally posted by Teala
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by Hoodwyn
Originally posted by Knotwood

 

 

 

...  I've been playing these games for long enough time, and I am 99% correct on my predictions.   ...  

  

99% correct huh?  Noob.  If you were a pro, you'd always be right.  So, since you're track record is less than perfect, there is no reason for anyone to give your opinions any weight now is there?  

Seriously though, that claim is just as far out in left field as the OPs. 

My prediction is actually based on knowledge, gained from over 18 years of being a part of the MMORPG community.   Yeah, I was playing these games like this when the Internet was made up of BBS's and we used dial-up to connect to servers.   I'm not pulling s@#t out of my arse - you can go right on and have your belief that this game will garner a bazillion players - but that is not reality.   This is a themepark game with PvP.  Just like all post WoW games, this to shall just be a weak imitation and Zenimax will be lucky if they have 350k players by this time next year.

  Teala

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 6/16/04
Posts: 7440

"Really officer, they're herbs."

3/20/14 6:37:34 PM#184
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by Teala
Originally posted by Knotwood
Originally posted by Hoodwyn
Originally posted by Knotwood

I can agree that a lot of players wont accept this title as of yet, but I got to be honest I never knew so many people would look those beta numbers and say less players would play then the amount of players in any game!

 

When was the last game you seen, where less people bought it then the number of players they had in beta?

Dude you need to get off the 5 million.

It was stated that 5 million beta accounts were created not 5 million beta tester played the game.

Comeback with concrete numbers on the amount that participated in beta then maybe your numbers might work.

how many people around here alone actually created more then one beta account, because I don't see 1 million people making 5 accounts around here.  Most beta testers are not die hards who want to get into Daily testing beta.  

100k people might be sadistic enough to want to be a daily beta tester and create 5 accounts to get in, but I don't see any more then that, and even that number is generous compared to other game betas.

Over the years on these forums, people like you have made some pretty wild predictions, but nobody has ever made anything as wild as this...seriously, you've topped them all.   I recall people claiming Aion would crush WoW,  Warhammer was suppose to bring in upwards of 5 million.   LoTRO, was suppose to bring in a minimum of 4 million.   SWToR was suppose to bring in 6 million according to a couple of users.   GW2 was suppose to be a WoW killer.  Same with Rift.   Now you come along with this prediciton and claim 5 million just to get started and by the end of the year 10 milllion?  Seriously?  

With the way this game is, and it having a sub fee...this game might sell 2 mil(I'll be surprised if it sells 3+ mil), but it's player retention will not even be anywhere near that.   They'll be lucky to maintain 500k subs after 6 months.   I'll give it maybe a year or a little after and it'll go free to play...and it'll be struggling to retain 350k players(if that!).   I've been playing these games for long enough time, and I am 99% correct on my predictions.   This, like many other themepark games with PvP as it's main driving force do not do well in NA markets.   SWToR, GW2, Aion and Warhammer tried to use PvP as a huge selling point - they all failed to do very well and nowhere near what people like you predicted.   

If anything, all you are doing is creating a negative effect and this will hurt the game more than help it...seen it, been there.  

I would have agreed with you in 2007.  But its not 2007 anymore,  up up until now, when a game that's worthy of single player gamers topped with the fact that we are living in a world that as become more global then ever,  we have seen schools across the nations teaching computer classes to students who are now turning 17-25.  We are starting to see the baby boomers of computers and of course adults now own consoles more then they have ever in the 80-90s.  We are seeing adult hobbies go from cars and other things to gaming.  We have such a wide and bigger diverse market now then ever before, and its going to get bigger as more and more students age.  Its almost mandatory that a kid learns computer skills now.  

So while I think your statement is correct, its correct only for 2007.   You will see my statement be more on line with the rise of instrest in MMO's and other gaming other then single player games.   You can hold me to that.

I won't hold you to it.  You're just deluding yourself.  You're hyped over a game.  Seen it before.  

  IsimeRage

Novice Member

Joined: 2/25/14
Posts: 10

3/20/14 6:41:56 PM#185

and 14,999,999 people that are disappointed in the game at the end of the year

 

  kitarad

Hard Core Member

Joined: 12/17/10
Posts: 1395

3/20/14 6:45:15 PM#186

With twitter,facebook and god knows how many other social media outlets these games get more coverage but the biggest stumbling block is the subscription. A Skyrim fan does not necessarily translate into a paying subber. They may sign up for beta but won't sub so in all probability will not buy the game or will buy it but leave soon after. Single player gamers will balk at the sub.

Also they lost our beta applications the ones we made earlier on because I signed up three times myself and they lost two of mine. So out of the 5 million how many signed up again when they did not get any invites from their original sign ups like I did.

Your numbers are way off and please don't skulk away deleting your account here when your prediction falls flat. We would like to rub it in very thoroughly in a few months. Do come back for the humiliation.

  Entinerint

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/06/12
Posts: 755

3/20/14 6:46:08 PM#187

OP is very bad at math.

 

"if even a fraction of them buy the game (of the 5 million people), were seeing going to see at least 5 million starting."

 

Only if that "fraction" is 1/1 - WTF did I just read?!  "At least" - really?!  LOL

  spizz

Novice Member

Joined: 7/11/04
Posts: 2587

3/20/14 6:47:36 PM#188
Originally posted by Knotwood

http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en/news/post/2014/03/14/eso-road-ahead

 

Here is a few statements I would like to talk about from this article:

 


So there it is. Some pretty solid reasons this game is going to be 10 million in the first year. Not only are they showing they have world wide players coming to the game in droves but they are prepared for it also. You take that and add it to the A+ customer service they have, we got ourselves a 10 million sub game in the first year easily.

 

 

I think you are starting to overhype the game.

 

I think this game has a chance to get successfull in general , but I would not start saying this game gets such an amount of players like World of Warcraft after some years. This sounds excessive.

My bet is around 800.000-1,5 Million and if successfull it would raise. But at the end this is all speculations out of thin air.

 

I remember SWTOR sold around 2 million boxes with one of the biggest brand ever "StarWars".

 

 

  Epicon

Novice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 124

"Shhh! My common sense is tingling..."

3/20/14 6:54:36 PM#189

I'm a huge fan of this game. I know what I am getting into, I have spend over 100 hours with it already. It's great, and I don't care what the haters think. Last time I checked there were other games coming out they could play, or games out already.

That being said? 10 million is a insane number. Anyone who thinks this is a reality, should honestly be locked up in a straight jacket and heavily medicated. Yes that's an extreme metaphor, but it is honestly that crazy.

The 5 million registered accounts, also includes PS3/PS4, as far as my console friends told me (I don't own one).

I think a more realistic number is, about a 2.5 million subscriber base, with a increase when it releases to consoles. I could see a 3 million subscriber mark by the end of the year.

A optimistic view, would be 5 million or so by the end of the year.

I'd love the 10 million thing to be true, but that won't happen.

 

"What tastes like purple?"

  Distopia

Drifter

Joined: 11/22/05
Posts: 15993

"what a boring life, HATING everything" -Gorilla Biscuits

3/20/14 7:26:48 PM#190
I certainly hope they're not counting the first batch in that number, as when they changed systems a few months later people had to resign up, at least I did, I also remember reading about it here; so i wasn't the only one. It no longer recognized me as signing up for beta prior.

For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson

It is a sign of a defeated man, to attack at ones character in the face of logic and reason- Me

  spizz

Novice Member

Joined: 7/11/04
Posts: 2587

3/20/14 7:27:04 PM#191

World of Warcraft ,after the release in 2004, had in mid 2005 around 1,5 million subscriber.

http://www.joystiq.com/2005/07/21/world-of-warcraft-becomes-1-mmorpg-in-the-world/

  mbrodie

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/15/04
Posts: 823

3/20/14 8:37:16 PM#192
Originally posted by Knotwood


So there it is. Some pretty solid reasons this game is going to be 10 million in the first year. Not only are they showing they have world wide players coming to the game in droves but they are prepared for it also. You take that and add it to the A+ customer service they have, we got ourselves a 10 million sub game in the first year easily.

 

so.. uhh, apparently you havent seen the genocide that is TESO preorders across multiple gaming website forums...

  CazNeerg

Novice Member

Joined: 8/06/04
Posts: 2220

"So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb." Dark Helmet

3/20/14 8:45:54 PM#193
Originally posted by mbrodie

so.. uhh, apparently you havent seen the genocide that is TESO preorders across multiple gaming website forums...

You mean the same ten people going to every forum they can find and making multiple accounts to tell how they cancelled their 23 Imperial Edition pre-orders?

Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.

  Abardomas

Novice Member

Joined: 2/18/14
Posts: 160

esouniverse.com

3/20/14 8:59:25 PM#194

My prediction is AT LEAST 10 million by Jan.2015 - Think about it.....Those 5 million beta players didn't include the players that will be coming in over the summer on PS4 and Xbox - Then you have the holiday season around the corner after that for all those sales of new consoles.

Yeah..... well over 10 million by 2015!

  askdaboss

Hard Core Member

Joined: 9/13/11
Posts: 457

3/20/14 9:08:52 PM#195

My prediction is 50 millions people playing the game in 6 months! Lol.

...

 

Oh wait. You guys were serious? *ahem* Sorry.

  baphamet

Advanced Member

Joined: 7/05/06
Posts: 2668

110100100

3/20/14 9:10:45 PM#196


Originally posted by Teala

Originally posted by Knotwood

Originally posted by Hoodwyn

Originally posted by Knotwood I can agree that a lot of players wont accept this title as of yet, but I got to be honest I never knew so many people would look those beta numbers and say less players would play then the amount of players in any game!   When was the last game you seen, where less people bought it then the number of players they had in beta?
Dude you need to get off the 5 million. It was stated that 5 million beta accounts were created not 5 million beta tester played the game. Comeback with concrete numbers on the amount that participated in beta then maybe your numbers might work.
how many people around here alone actually created more then one beta account, because I don't see 1 million people making 5 accounts around here.  Most beta testers are not die hards who want to get into Daily testing beta.   100k people might be sadistic enough to want to be a daily beta tester and create 5 accounts to get in, but I don't see any more then that, and even that number is generous compared to other game betas.
Over the years on these forums, people like you have made some pretty wild predictions, but nobody has ever made anything as wild as this...seriously, you've topped them all.   I recall people claiming Aion would crush WoW,  Warhammer was suppose to bring in upwards of 5 million.   LoTRO, was suppose to bring in a minimum of 4 million.   SWToR was suppose to bring in 6 million according to a couple of users.   GW2 was suppose to be a WoW killer.  Same with Rift.   Now you come along with this prediciton and claim 5 million just to get started and by the end of the year 10 milllion?  Seriously?  

With the way this game is, and it having a sub fee...this game might sell 2 mil(I'll be surprised if it sells 3+ mil), but it's player retention will not even be anywhere near that.   They'll be lucky to maintain 500k subs after 6 months.   I'll give it maybe a year or a little after and it'll go free to play...and it'll be struggling to retain 350k players(if that!).   I've been playing these games for long enough time, and I am 99% correct on my predictions.   This, like many other themepark games with PvP as it's main driving force do not do well in NA markets.   SWToR, GW2, Aion and Warhammer tried to use PvP as a huge selling point - they all failed to do very well and nowhere near what people like you predicted.   

If anything, all you are doing is creating a negative effect and this will hurt the game more than help it...seen it, been there.  


LOL@ being right 99% of the time, and you say the OP was bad?

by the way, people feed off of negativity here, there is so much negativity here i fail to see how one delusional optimistic topic has any effect one way or another.

how many negative topics equally as delusional have we seen here? countless.

are you saying those are not damaging?

  Geriden

Novice Member

Joined: 7/03/06
Posts: 401

3/20/14 9:13:35 PM#197

Yea i have been in the past 3 or four beta weekends, and im not getting it either tiz not for me !

But anyway, studios always come out with this lark, we have x amount of beta testers its all pr and spin.

Like warhammer  remeber the hype train... choo choo.

  Dullahan

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/20/05
Posts: 799

Death to Themepark.

3/20/14 9:26:09 PM#198

Dunno why you guys are even paying mind to this guy. 

The game is mediocrity at its finest and will go the way of SWTOR, Rift and every other new mmo in the last decade.  It will start out with maybe a couple million subscribers, then drop under a million in 6 months to a year and go free to play.  It simply brings NOTHING new to the table at all.

If some guy wants to be a diehard fan an try to convince others that this steaming pile of dog poo will top the charts, let em, but dont get suckered into a foolish debate about it.

Played EQ, UO, DAoC, AO, WoW, EQII, Vanguard, Ryzom, Darkfall, Warhammer, Rift, MO, Tera, DFUW, Age of Wushu, NW2, ESO, ArcheAge and many others I don't remember or care to admit.
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Awaiting The Repopulation, Camelot Unchained & Shroud of the Avatar.
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Don't be ignorant. Get an MMO education!

  Sethalos

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/21/08
Posts: 10

3/20/14 9:51:04 PM#199

I will be absolutely mind bombed if they don't hit at least 10 million after the first year. Everyone I know is going to play this game, most of them have cancelled accounts from WoW or other MMO's waiting for April to hit to play. There is a lot of excitement out there for this game, and even knowing that there will be some launch month issues, people are excited.

 

This is going to be a HUGE game.

  Knotwood

Novice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1117

 
OP  3/20/14 9:51:19 PM#200
Originally posted by Dullahan

Dunno why you guys are even paying mind to this guy. 

The game is mediocrity at its finest and will go the way of SWTOR, Rift and every other new mmo in the last decade.  It will start out with maybe a couple million subscribers, then drop under a million in 6 months to a year and go free to play.  It simply brings NOTHING new to the table at all.

If some guy wants to be a diehard fan an try to convince others that this steaming pile of dog poo will top the charts, let em, but dont get suckered into a foolish debate about it.

Trying to compare this game to SWTOR or GW2 is the biggest flaw a lot of you guys cannot seem to remedy.  That ESO is not anywhere close to those two games and is by far a different monster on the market then you realize.   Hell, SWTOR isn't even in the same Genre, its Sci-fi, and ESO is of the Renaissance Genre at its heart.   You haven't seen a game made for that genre with this amount of quality since Lotro to be honest, and old schoolers were raised on this type of gaming when RPG was in the dice days of Dungeons and Dragons.  I know its hard for you to believe there is millions of players hiding in the shadows who loeve this genre more then any sci-fi game out there even with the Star Wars name on it, but its true.

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