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Elder Scrolls Online

Elder Scrolls Online 

General Discussion  » Smedly predicts ESO will be successfu and have ALOT of players.

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79 posts found
  Renoaku

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/10/07
Posts: 976

2/17/14 6:35:23 AM#61

I also predict ESO will fail after the first few months its numbers will go down it will likely go F2P.

My reasons are.

1.) The game doesn't feel like ESO series. Could compare ESO to Rift / WOW

2.) Locked Character Classes/Skills (Weapon Skills are not locked.)

3.) No Housing currently.

4.) No Barber-Shop / Freedom to Customize.

5.) Not Sand-Box Based.

6.) Locked Alliances.

To make the game successful all this has to change on release or I am not buying the game due to these reasons.

I played the first Beta, Reported Bugs, and honestly got bored fast of the game felt like every other game I previously played, now imagine if after 2 days of beta I got bored of the game what you will think of the game on launch unless things change.

 

  keenber

Novice Member

Joined: 7/10/07
Posts: 439

2/17/14 6:35:53 AM#62

Funny isn't it that two of the longest games were both theamparks and both are still doing great. EQ kept me interested for 13 years until they changed it to F2P and they only added content once a year. WoW are even worse at adding content yet its still going strong. One thing both have in common is they built up a great community of players ( WoW don't seem to have a great community if you are new to the game but most reason players don't leave is because of the friends they have made in game).

I was worried for TESO when i heard Smed say good things about it but then i seen it was just a way to kick it in the teeth and say how great EQN will be.

  baphamet

Elite Member

Joined: 7/05/06
Posts: 2699

110100100

2/17/14 6:52:27 AM#63


Originally posted by Renoaku
I also predict ESO will fail after the first few months its numbers will go down it will likely go F2P.

My reasons are.

1.) The game doesn't feel like ESO series. Could compare ESO to Rift / WOW

2.) Locked Character Classes/Skills (Weapon Skills are not locked.)

3.) No Housing currently.

4.) No Barber-Shop / Freedom to Customize.

5.) Not Sand-Box Based.

6.) Locked Alliances.

To make the game successful all this has to change on release or I am not buying the game due to these reasons.

I played the first Beta, Reported Bugs, and honestly got bored fast of the game felt like every other game I previously played, now imagine if after 2 days of beta I got bored of the game what you will think of the game on launch unless things change.

 


success isn't measured by pleasing you individually. being a sandbox wont make it a success as i haven't sen a successful sandbox game yet, that is comparable to the themeparks at least.

ESO will be a success, whether you personally like it it not. that said, it will have a drop off in players after a few months just like every other game will from here on out.

not because of anything you listed but because the genre is saturated with other games to play and none of them are far and away better than the rest.

even if it had every single thing you listed it would suffer the same fate. in fact i would argue that it would be less successful if it were a sandbox and not a quest driven themepark style game like the rest of the ES SP games.

  baphamet

Elite Member

Joined: 7/05/06
Posts: 2699

110100100

2/17/14 6:55:21 AM#64


Originally posted by maple2
the engine for this game is Chubby and crappy.. it works really badly and is in general bad

no it isn't.

  tom_gore

Novice Member

Joined: 2/27/09
Posts: 1810

2/17/14 7:04:37 AM#65
Originally posted by keenber

Funny isn't it that two of the longest games were both theamparks and both are still doing great. EQ kept me interested for 13 years until they changed it to F2P and they only added content once a year. WoW are even worse at adding content yet its still going strong. One thing both have in common is they built up a great community of players ( WoW don't seem to have a great community if you are new to the game but most reason players don't leave is because of the friends they have made in game).

I was worried for TESO when i heard Smed say good things about it but then i seen it was just a way to kick it in the teeth and say how great EQN will be.

UO is older than either of those two. I don't know for a fact but it must be making money still. Otherwise EA would have shut it down long ago.

WoW is an institution. It's also probably the highest quality themepark there is. It also is sitting on 10 years worth of content. I think one number alone proves that WoW is not retaining players very well: 100 million registered accounts.

 

  jpaprocki

Apprentice Member

Joined: 9/23/09
Posts: 241

2/17/14 7:35:04 AM#66
Originally posted by maple2
the engine for this game is Chubby and crappy.. it works really badly and is in general bad

Please enlighten me on this.   Just saying, "the engine for this game is chubby and crappy", doesn't tell me anything.  Explain how?

I'm not an IT Specialist, Game Developer, or Clairvoyant in real life, but like others on here, I play one on the internet.

  jpaprocki

Apprentice Member

Joined: 9/23/09
Posts: 241

2/17/14 7:41:34 AM#67
Originally posted by Renoaku

I also predict ESO will fail after the first few months its numbers will go down it will likely go F2P.

My reasons are.

1.) The game doesn't feel like ESO series. Could compare ESO to Rift / WOW

2.) Locked Character Classes/Skills (Weapon Skills are not locked.)

3.) No Housing currently.

4.) No Barber-Shop / Freedom to Customize.

5.) Not Sand-Box Based.

6.) Locked Alliances.

To make the game successful all this has to change on release or I am not buying the game due to these reasons.

 

 

And I'm sure Zenimax is losing sleep over that.  I think the crystal ball they gave you when you registered here is broken.  You better ask for another one.

I'm not an IT Specialist, Game Developer, or Clairvoyant in real life, but like others on here, I play one on the internet.

  Pratt2112

Elite Member

Joined: 2/12/12
Posts: 1394

2/17/14 7:46:52 AM#68
Originally posted by AlBQuirky

What a stupid thread. What do you EXPECT Smedly to say? "This game will suck! Big Time!" Really?

Name one developer, publisher, lead designer, CEO, COO, president, whatever that does NOT say "My game will do great!"

He wasn't saying it of his own game.

TESO = Zenimax

Smedley = SOE

 

  TheBigDRC

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/17/12
Posts: 163

I popped too many blood vessels to give a damn anymore.

2/17/14 7:48:39 AM#69
Originally posted by jpaprocki
Originally posted by Renoaku

I also predict ESO will fail after the first few months its numbers will go down it will likely go F2P.

My reasons are.

1.) The game doesn't feel like ESO series. Could compare ESO to Rift / WOW

2.) Locked Character Classes/Skills (Weapon Skills are not locked.)

3.) No Housing currently.

4.) No Barber-Shop / Freedom to Customize.

5.) Not Sand-Box Based.

6.) Locked Alliances.

To make the game successful all this has to change on release or I am not buying the game due to these reasons.

 

 

And I'm sure Zenimax is losing sleep over that.  I think the crystal ball they gave you when you registered here is broken.  You better ask for another one.

Wait, they gave away a crystal ball when you register?! Well crap, I feel cheated!

You know what's fun about chaos? I do, but I won't tell.

  Cristina1

Novice Member

Joined: 3/12/09
Posts: 384

2/17/14 9:00:02 AM#70
It will be popular because of it's IP. Same as WoW, many don't know this, but that game had a HUGE following before it was even created thanks to their RTS games.
  rodarin

Elite Member

Joined: 5/21/10
Posts: 574

2/17/14 9:01:51 AM#71

Smedly showed he is still an idiot or myopic one or the other.

 

SWOTOR didnt fail or run out of content.Their PLAN was to go free to play. Milk hardcore fans and wannabe fans for all the sub money they could then switch the game to free to play and milk money from the cash shop.

 

Zenimax is going to do the same exact thing.

 

Smedly just has games that release free to play (or sub optional) up front and hopes the games are good enough to garner a few people to sub (rather than requiring them to) and then over charging for pay to win stuff on the cash shop.

 

People hat actually think the long tern plan for Zenimax is to keep this game subscription based for any longer than they have to are extremely naive.

 

All the 'big' news and latest developments are eye catching and all but the game is the same this morning as it was the day they released the pre order options. Only difference is people can talk about stuff now without having to worry about getting banned by forum cops.

 

Just BECAUSE you can talk about the game doesnt make it any better than it was. Which isnt very good. I think that is the real message Smedly is conveying here. The game is extremely limited right now in terms of content. Zenimax will more than likely release stuff they have canned to milk some extra sub months out of people foolish enough to think that content they release this July was actually developed after the game was released, instead of something that COULD have been released with the rest of the game but was held back to insure they had something 'meaningful' to release as per their promise of adding content every 4-6 weeks.

 

People that buy NOW or at release get ONE advantage, to play at release. Guys that dont buy get a couple of advantages, they will eventually get it for free, or at least not have to pay a sub to play it, and they will go into a game that has much more content and is much more polished.

 

Smedly may hve made a mistake and used it to his advantage recently but rest assured the guy is a total zero in terms of really knowing what players want. So to give him any authority in trying to predict the future of a game is pretty funny. 90% of the guys on the forums have a better handle on that reality than he ever will. 

  tom_gore

Novice Member

Joined: 2/27/09
Posts: 1810

2/17/14 9:47:50 AM#72
Originally posted by rodarin

SWOTOR didnt fail or run out of content.Their PLAN was to go free to play.

What you are saying effectively is that ALL sub games plan to go F2P eventually. I don't think SWTOR devs meant to do it so soon, though.

If they didn't have this backup plan they would have been plain incompetent.

  Spawnblade

Advanced Member

Joined: 2/02/05
Posts: 200

2/17/14 10:10:14 AM#73

The big difference between TOR and ESO:  ESO is launching with more end game content than any other themepark-esque MMO I've seen had at launch to date.  Far more than WoW, Conan, TOR, LotR, DAoC, etc.  

 

If TOR had the end game ESO has, I would have been much more satisfied playing it.  There's actually things to work for once you hit 50.  Figuring in ESO's deep pockets and desire to see this game succeed (particularly considering their massive time and monetary investment in its success,) they should have no problem continuing a steady stream of updates in the form of skills, pve content, and preferably an expansion to pvp and player created content as a whole (since that's the best way to ensure there's always something for players to get lost in.)

  Spawnblade

Advanced Member

Joined: 2/02/05
Posts: 200

2/17/14 10:20:31 AM#74
Words cannot express how happy I am this game does not have housing.  The only games that do housing well are full sandboxes where the housing isn't instanced, but can be destroyed, while simultaneously providing some sort of practical benefit.  Otherwise it's a waste of developer time and resources, only on a massive scale compared to other vanity wastes.
  AlBQuirky

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 1/24/05
Posts: 3755

Tomorrow's just a future yesterday...

2/17/14 11:21:59 AM#75


Originally posted by osc8r

Originally posted by AlBQuirky
What a stupid thread. What do you EXPECT Smedly to say? "This game will suck! Big Time!" Really?

Name one developer, publisher, lead designer, CEO, COO, president, whatever that does NOT say "My game will do great!"



FYI, Smedley doesn't work for Zenimax, so ESO isn't his game but one of his competitors. And yes, there are plenty of business's out their that aren't afraid to slag off their competition... though in this case i'd say he's just making a educated guess/prediction.

Gall Dang It! My reaing comprehension failed me again. Sorry about my previous post and thanks for pointing out my mistake :)

- Al

Personally the only modern MMORPG trend that annoys me is the idea that MMOs need to be designed in a way to attract people who don't actually like MMOs. Which to me makes about as much sense as someone trying to figure out a way to get vegetarians to eat at their steakhouse.
- FARGIN_WAR

  User Deleted
 
OP  2/17/14 12:25:50 PM#76

I just wanted to add a few things about the type of people who burn though content and why.   You can find each of these types in every guild.    Most of these types leave the game after content.   I don't think this will be the case with ESO.  Heres why:

 

1)     PVP's  who seek to do nothing else but PVP.    You can actually level up from 10-50 in PVP only.  You will get skills all the way to 50 in pvp as if you were doing PVE and leveling up that way,  even at 50 your skills will continue to increase in PVP, which means these players can live in PVP if they wanted to.    These people are the ones who usually burn though quests by hitting the Accept button or care little for PVE at all.   These people will be happy well into the future because they have what they want, Player created wars in PVP and end game PVP progression content.

 

2)     PVE's who seek to do nothing else but PVE and storylines.   These people are a lot like LOTRO players and EQ players, who take their time and do Everything.    They will read every book (theres over 1000 books in game that lead to quests)  and will do every quest that they possibly can because of the way ESO questing is set up, its not mindless, its actually fun for PVE person and very instresting and story driven in each of them.    These people when they get to 50 will have Overland play in the other alliances where they can do basicly X 3 the amount of content they had going from 1-50.   Since they take their time and explore everything, read books, do quests, they will have at the very least 3 or more months of content from launch.

 

3)     PVE idiots,  who will play this game like other MMO's and not stop and look at a note on the ground which spawns a quest,   wont ever talk to a dog that chases them which starts a storyline,  or talk to any NPC in any town to get content,   they even walk by Skill Shards and don't even realize they ran past it.   They will blow through the starter zones in under 3 hours complaining about it.  They will stay on the main storyline and go to 50 as fast as possible and complain that there was no content to do,  when really they just bypassed all the content that was offered to them in the form of adventuring.   These people will get to 50 and have missed the entire STORY FOUNDATION of the game.    But theres hope.  Most of these type of PVE'rs are RAIDERS.  see raiding below.

 

4)     RAIDERS,   These guys level up in all different ways, from PVP to PVE,  they need to see end game raiding as long and worth their time.  They will raid 40+ hours a week.  They only scream lack of content if the raid is not long enough,  epic enough, or lacks updates that need changing immediately.   They have no tolerance for bad raiding.    As long as there is more then two major raids that take atleast 12+ hours a week,  they will stay indefinatly but will be demanding more and more raids eventually.

 

5)     CRAFTERS.  Most of these people tend to be PVE only people, but I'll throw them into a category because it is a major reason some PVE/PVP players leave.   If the crafting is not good enough and you cannot use the gear you create, or its not second to best gear in the game,  crafters will be furious.    There has to be a TOP TIER GEAR set also for these people or they throw holy hell and will be a good reason for them to leave when any other area in game starts to lack.  ESO has crafting that's very unique and usefull,   while I do not know what end game crafting gear looks like,  I can only assume they have covered this based off of MikeB's post on crafting in ESO and how so many changes can be made to the gear just one or two styles or levels off, and the fact that there is Unique Crafting Set stations around the world like SKYRIM had.

 

 

These 5 above are the main types of players who will run out of content the first in almost every MMO and leave the game.   If they do not see updates or feel purpose they'll leave,  but I think ESO has all of these types of players pretty soundly covered.   The PVE'r idiot listed above is proably the only one you will see screaming after 30 days and are a miniority of players that will be playing ESO.    Most of the true solid and loyal player base of ESO will be Elder Scrolls Fans and LOTRO and EQ type PVE fans who are very into story driven content and exploration.

 

 

  Nadia

Tipster

Joined: 7/26/03
Posts: 11849

2/17/14 12:27:08 PM#77

Smed likes to make predictions

 

September 2011

SOE: SWTOR the “last large scale MMO” to use subscription business model

http://www.vg247.com/2011/09/20/soe-swtor-the-last-large-scale-mmo-to-use-subscription-business-model/

  Jean-Luc_Picard

Elite Member

Joined: 1/10/13
Posts: 3019

There... are... four... lights!

2/17/14 12:30:15 PM#78
Originally posted by Nadia

Smed likes to make predictions

 

September 2011

SOE: SWTOR the “last large scale MMO” to use subscription business model

http://www.vg247.com/2011/09/20/soe-swtor-the-last-large-scale-mmo-to-use-subscription-business-model/

And he's actually right. Other games like ESO trying to do it doesn't mean they will succeed - and ESO will end just like SW:TOR, after approx. the same time.

Playing now: WoW, Landmark, GW2, SotA

Got a refund: Archeage. First refund since I started MMOs.

Top 3 MMORPGs played: UO, AC1 and WoW

Honorable mentions: AO, LotRO and GW2.

"The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent" - Qui-gon Jinn. After many years of reading Internet forums, there's no doubt that neither does the ability to write.

  CazNeerg

Novice Member

Joined: 8/06/04
Posts: 2220

"So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb." Dark Helmet

2/17/14 1:49:39 PM#79

 

Originally posted by tom_gore

I admit being biased towards sandbox MMO gaming. After all, that's where it all started from. The devolution of the genre has been since disheartening to watch, as MMOs try to become more and more like casual singleplayer games, with a social side slapped haphazardly on.

However, it is an undeniable fact that if you give a man a fish, he will live for a day. If you teach him how to fish, he will live for years. This is the point Smedley is trying to make. No matter how much content the devs will push, the players will churn through it faster than they can produce it. But by giving them tools and systems which they can use to create their own content, the devs indeed have a chance of "staying one step ahead" of the players.

Obviously sandbox gaming is not the ultimate solution for everyone. After all, a lot of people like to consume pre-canned media (TV) instead of interactive media (games), and likewise within gamers there are those who will rather consume content created by someone else than create their own content.

For me, sandbox gaming represents what MMOs should be about - getting together to create your own adventures. A bit like classic pen and paper roleplaying, but obviously with more visuals, and of course and unfortunately more limits.

Again, you're free to disagree what you prefer - themepark style content or sandbox style content, but the fact remains that sandbox content is much more feasible in the long run to keep an MMO running with manageable cost.

A lot of early MMOs would be more accurately described as empty themeparks than as sandboxes.  A themepark is a game where the content is static and developer created.  Most early MMOs fit that definition, the static content just often ended at provided mobs to grind who spawned in specific locations, rather than providing quest hubs where an NPC tells you which mobs to kill before you get to the killing.  A game isn't a sandbox unless it actually provides in game tools that allow the player to create content within the game.  SWG had sandbox elements, things like the Mission Architect in CoX and whatever they call the equivalent in Neverwinter are sandbox elements, Shadowbane was a sandbox.  EverQuest, the Realm, Meridian 59, none of these things were sandboxes in any way.  The only early MMO with sandbox elements was UO.

Originally posted by maple2

just how can something that is true be a troll? just cause u like to waste money on a game.. that requires a collectors edition to play a race that we was never told about..

Opinions, by definition, can't be true or false, only honest or dishonest.  And even if someone honestly believes something, trolling is a "crime" of intent.  If the reason someone posts something, or phrases their point in a certain way, is to try to elicit a negative emotional response, that someone is trolling.

Originally posted by maple2

I Watched Star wars online fail badly, Tera Failed quite fast, Rift as well, i Watched tons of games like Eso failling after a few months.

and Eso made the terrible decision to make us pay more then 200 dollas to play imperial race.. yes 200 dollas.. or roughly 145 euros.

and 2nd of all this game got  a really bad engine, fine graphics but really chubby. combat system is really bad, no flashy armor? or swords? no thanks

You are clearly one of the many on this forum who doesn't know the meaning of the word failure.

 

Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.

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