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Elder Scrolls Online

Elder Scrolls Online 

General Discussion  » Smedly predicts ESO will be successfu and have ALOT of players.

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79 posts found
  Coated

Advanced Member

Joined: 11/05/09
Posts: 278

2/17/14 3:07:30 AM#41

I have to agree with what someone said earlier, which is disagreeing with Smed. One of the huge issues with SWTOR was their engine, not the amount of content that was available. For anyone that was actually there for SWTOR's birth, you know what I'm talking about. SWTOR forums were bombarded with posts about skill delay, action delay, GCD delays, the whole game was having problems because of these issues. The other problem was that the game was shallow, lacked imagination and creation. It was a terrible experience all around. Most of the people who quit didn't even make it to end game, let alone experience half of what SWTOR content had to offer.

I also don't get the comparison of SWTOR and ESO. They are not similar in any way shape or form, other than the inevitable transition of P2P to F2P. That isn't a comparison though, as almost every mmorpg that started P2P eventually goes F2P. Even WOW will eventually go F2P at some point.

The only reason why ESO may not do well in my eyes is that it is incredibly niche. As you have seen on these forums, you either hate the game or love it. ESO doesn't seem to make anyone think, "oh, maybe I'll give it a shot". The 'maybe' is gone with ESO, which is unlike SWTOR. TOR had almost everying thinking, maybe.

  CazNeerg

Novice Member

Joined: 8/06/04
Posts: 2220

"So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb." Dark Helmet

2/17/14 3:12:28 AM#42

The problem with a lot of the "logic" in this thread is that the only way TOR can be called a failure is if you define failure in the MMO market as "any game that includes a free option."  They are making buckets of money with that game, and if Zenimax follows exactly the same pattern with ESO in terms of player numbers and the eventual model changes, it will be considered by anyone who understands the *business* of making computer games as a major success.

In other words, Smedley is probably correct that ESO will be like TOR, but that isn't a way of saying it will be a failure, it is a way of saying it will probably be as successful as contemporary MMOs ever get.

Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.

  Eighteen16

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/22/11
Posts: 145

2/17/14 3:34:24 AM#43
Reviewers who think that themepark MMOs are the past are just dreaming. Does sandbox provide much more potential content? Yes. Will any AAA developer spend resources making a sandbox MMO? No, not unless it is a complete abomination like EQN. Wow is doing just fine by releasing one content patch per 6 months, it is about quality not quantity. 
  Scot

Elite Member

Joined: 10/10/03
Posts: 5251

2/17/14 3:38:36 AM#44
Well that's doomed the game for sure. :)
  Doogiehowser

Novice Member

Joined: 3/14/12
Posts: 1939

2/17/14 3:43:32 AM#45
Originally posted by Knotwood

I almost missed this one, but the article on MMORPG front page the other day talked about Smedly's comment on sandboxs.   What I found inside it made my jaw drop....

 

http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/game/952/feature/8220/Smedley-the-Sandbox-and-Online-Society.html

 

http://smedsblog.com/2014/02/11/the-sandbox-mmo/comment-page-2/

 

To make a long story short, he talks about how sandboxs are the future because people blow threw content faster then a company can make content for it.    He mentions SWTOR as having ran out of content too fast and players left, and he predicts this will eventually happen to ESO also.

 

 

This is where Smed predicts ESO success well into the future because Zennimax has huge pockets and plans to provide content well into the future before any of us run out of it.

 

"Don’t get me wrong.. someone with deep pockets can still pull it off." - Smed 

 

Then goes on to predict that TESO will end like SWTOR because of people going thorough content too fast. 

 

"TESO looks like it’s going to follow the content model and it’s going to have a lot of players. I’m willing to bet that it hits the same problem that  SWTOR did. Just not enough to do."     - Smed

 

 

I think what Smed dint realize is that Zenimax has DEEP Pockets, and can pull this off, and WONT end up like SWTOR because they have a full team of developers with 100s of hours all ready lined up for us at launch, with Content updates every 4-6 weeks.   We'll have to see if Smed is right or not.   My bet is he's wrong on this one.

 

His lack of will to spend money to provide full content could actually be his undoing if hes not watchful enough to see that Pleyrs who see content like ESO's content as next gen content, might just pass up sandboxes over it, if its constantly coming in and keeps doing what ESO's content looks like.

Its amazing how people still take words of devs as facts and cling to it with so much absolute confidence. Which company hasn't made similar claims before MMO launch? talk is cheap though. I will believe when i see it. Every MMO company makes similar claims.

"The problem is that the hardcore folks always want the same thing: 'We want exactly what you gave us before, but it has to be completely different.'
-Jesse Schell

"Online gamers are the most ludicrously entitled beings since Caligula made his horse a senator, and at least the horse never said anything stupid."
-Luke McKinney

  Drannor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/21/11
Posts: 20

2/17/14 3:47:26 AM#46

Gotta agree with Coated and CazNeerg. I was there at launch. I've been a subscriber for 3 months. The problem was - you could get to max everything in less than 2 months. After that period I had best gear I could get and there was literally nothing to do. Ilum (pvp) was a complete joke. Reps and Imps made queues to kill each other to get pvp points, because it was more efficient.

Also, there was no need to explore. You could just send your companions to get mats for you while staying on the Fleet. Same with crafting.

But they've improved a lot since then and SWTOR is doing quite well in my opinion. There are lots of people playing it. In fact, I've resubscribed twice during last year. And don't be fooled. This game is not free to play. What you get for free is just a mere trial with huge limitations.

In my opinion ESO and SWTOR similarities end on positive things - there is a great story, music, everything is voiced over and you can get that epic feel while playing:)

Game engine, PvP, crafting, exploration are far better in ESO.

Will this game switch to f2p model? Quite possible, but it won't happen anytime soon.

  Muke

Elite Member

Joined: 1/04/07
Posts: 1613

2/17/14 3:51:14 AM#47
Originally posted by AlBQuirky

What a stupid thread. What do you EXPECT Smedly to say? "This game will suck! Big Time!" Really?

Name one developer, publisher, lead designer, CEO, COO, president, whatever that does NOT say "My game will do great!"

He would be better off saying nothing then instead of battering "opponents".

ESPECIALLY Smedley, who is known worldwide of burying his own MMOs and making promises he never keeps.

We'll see how these 2 MMOs will score on the Smedley Scale. If EQN is really that good, it will be a good game, if it is a fail, then all the promises in the world can't keep Smed's new toy afloat.

 

"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"

  SgtPepperUK

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/03/13
Posts: 27

2/17/14 4:17:48 AM#48
Originally posted by MikeB

Sorry to burst your bubble, but no developer can keep up with the content needs of a themepark game.

This only holds true for a minority of players, though what does tend to bring focus on it is that these players tend to be more vocal. They'll chew through a game's content and then let everyone know about it.

 

But no modern themepark MMO is designed to be played 50+ hours per week. Once they might have used mechanics that were deliberate time sinks to achieve that effect but , Post-WoW, that changed and accessability became key. Most people preferred to be able to play 2-3 hours per night and get stuff done.

 

Personally, I'm fine with this. When I played FFXI I would generally have to play all evening to get something done, now I can play FFXIV and get something out of a 2 or 3 hour session. Which is great because I can then go and watch TV or play something else (thanks to Steam sales I certainly have a lengthy list of games to play).

 

Playing an MMO these days does not have to be an exclusive activity that needs and consumes all the spare hours you can throw at it, like it used to.

 

There is, however, a vocal minority who feel that's how it should be and they're the ones most likely to be disappointed by modern themepark MMOs.

Think about it, nobody wants to die, there's rules to this game son, I'm justified.

  Voiidiin

Novice Member

Joined: 1/13/11
Posts: 827

Soylent green is made from PEOPLE

2/17/14 4:22:58 AM#49
Originally posted by AlBQuirky

What a stupid thread. What do you EXPECT Smedly to say? "This game will suck! Big Time!" Really?

Name one developer, publisher, lead designer, CEO, COO, president, whatever that does NOT say "My game will do great!"

Umm smedly is not an ESO dev.... just an fyi.

Lolipops !

  tom_gore

Novice Member

Joined: 2/27/09
Posts: 1803

2/17/14 5:08:18 AM#50
Originally posted by keithian
Originally posted by tom_gore

Having tested ESO I can pretty much stand behind Smed's words. It will totally do a "SWTOR" and have a massive player crash after 1-2 months of release, will go F2P within 18 months of release and keep lingering for several years after that.

Smedley has absolutely nothing to fear from ESO when compared to EQN (Landmark). They are completely different beasts and my prediction the SOE beast will easily win this battle.

I could be wrong, of course, but I rarely am when it comes to MMORPGs ;)

 

I don't take this opinion very seriously because you are extremely sandbox biased....I mean you basically have admitted it yourself in your forum history. Regardless, you may be right, you may be wrong. I guess we shall see. I know for me I'll be still waiting around in the aftermath of the big tom_gore gaming crash prediction lol. Anyway, at least we agree on Occulus Rift :-).

 

I admit being biased towards sandbox MMO gaming. After all, that's where it all started from. The devolution of the genre has been since disheartening to watch, as MMOs try to become more and more like casual singleplayer games, with a social side slapped haphazardly on.

However, it is an undeniable fact that if you give a man a fish, he will live for a day. If you teach him how to fish, he will live for years. This is the point Smedley is trying to make. No matter how much content the devs will push, the players will churn through it faster than they can produce it. But by giving them tools and systems which they can use to create their own content, the devs indeed have a chance of "staying one step ahead" of the players.

Obviously sandbox gaming is not the ultimate solution for everyone. After all, a lot of people like to consume pre-canned media (TV) instead of interactive media (games), and likewise within gamers there are those who will rather consume content created by someone else than create their own content.

For me, sandbox gaming represents what MMOs should be about - getting together to create your own adventures. A bit like classic pen and paper roleplaying, but obviously with more visuals, and of course and unfortunately more limits.

Again, you're free to disagree what you prefer - themepark style content or sandbox style content, but the fact remains that sandbox content is much more feasible in the long run to keep an MMO running with manageable cost.

 

  maple2

Novice Member

Joined: 7/27/11
Posts: 103

2/17/14 5:09:47 AM#51
it wont be a success and it wont last long before it either shuts down or go F2P... the game is just to horrible..
  Xarko

Hard Core Member

Joined: 6/10/11
Posts: 384

2/17/14 5:13:13 AM#52
Originally posted by maple2
it wont be a success and it wont last long before it either shuts down or go F2P... the game is just to horrible..

You have a lot to learn in the ways of trolling, my friend.

  ruonim

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/25/09
Posts: 255

2/17/14 5:13:23 AM#53

Ruonim predicts:

- game will be failure

- lots of players will quit after "free" month

- people wont stand kill x of y quests

- people wont stand 30 minute travel times

- pvpers wont stand gear based pvp

- elder scrolls fans won't like grind based game

 

Now discuss!! About ruonim predictions.

  Gilllean

Novice Member

Joined: 1/04/14
Posts: 188

2/17/14 5:16:58 AM#54
TES and TESO are 2 different things as a gamer of both I always wanted more competition in Skyrim even if next single TES come out I most probably will play ESO because it's a mmo I just like cooperative and competition between people.
  maple2

Novice Member

Joined: 7/27/11
Posts: 103

2/17/14 5:18:34 AM#55
Originally posted by Xarko
Originally posted by maple2
it wont be a success and it wont last long before it either shuts down or go F2P... the game is just to horrible..

You have a lot to learn in the ways of trolling, my friend.

just how can something that is true be a troll? just cause u like to waste money on a game.. that requires a collectors edition to play a race that we was never told about..

really u have to pay 13 euros a month on top of that u have to pay like 50-60 euros for the bad game and if u want collecters its like 180+ euros or something 

 

honestly we are paying to ESCAPE THe stupid extra payout..

 

it should be F2p.. and truly enough the game will die after 1st month of gameplay when people bought it..

  Xarko

Hard Core Member

Joined: 6/10/11
Posts: 384

2/17/14 5:24:42 AM#56
Originally posted by ruonim

Ruonim predicts:

- game will be failure

No it wont. It will be a financial success no matter how bad or good the game is. You could say game is going to be terrible but it wont be a failure.

- lots of players will quit after "free" month

Now thats not even prediction. Thats how it always is :)

- people wont stand kill x of y quests

Id agree, but I didnt see any quest like that in the game.

- people wont stand 30 minute travel times

There is a fast travel in the game if im not mistaken.

- pvpers wont stand gear based pvp

'Course they will, just as they do in other MMOs.

- elder scrolls fans won't like grind based game

wat.

 

Now discuss!! About ruonim predictions.

 

  Nightfyre

Novice Member

Joined: 1/25/04
Posts: 157

2/17/14 5:26:53 AM#57

I see people going 2-3 months maybe, with losing some after the free month.

ESO doesn't have anything ground breaking or "new" to make you want to stay.  The only thing it has going for it is the Elder Scrolls name.  PvP won't be a massive plus for this game, being it's level and gear factored with little in the way of skills.  I mean I saw (OP) spells in the beginning that would work for PvP but that just means it's spam a few buttons over and over and hope their dead or someone else helps out. 

If you would take a look at Darkfall online and compare it to a level based MMO PvP; you'd see the problem with level based mmo's.

Content wise, people who play beta and just seems in general they burn through it too fast and then they want more when others are still trying to max level. 

Quests really turned me off in this game... how many freaking town quests do you need.  They weren't even that entertaining, just finish them and move on.  That would be the other thing, people who don't read the flavor text or watch the movies (if they have to), I'm guilty of that at times, but otherwise I like to see what happens.  Secret World had the stories I wanted to read/watch; ESO not so much.

 

  Xarko

Hard Core Member

Joined: 6/10/11
Posts: 384

2/17/14 5:28:59 AM#58
Originally posted by maple2
Originally posted by Xarko
Originally posted by maple2
it wont be a success and it wont last long before it either shuts down or go F2P... the game is just to horrible..

You have a lot to learn in the ways of trolling, my friend.

just how can something that is true be a troll? just cause u like to waste money on a game.. that requires a collectors edition to play a race that we was never told about..

really u have to pay 13 euros a month on top of that u have to pay like 50-60 euros for the bad game and if u want collecters its like 180+ euros or something 

 

honestly we are paying to ESCAPE THe stupid extra payout..

 

it should be F2p.. and truly enough the game will die after 1st month of gameplay when people bought it..

No I dont like to waste my money and I havent preordered the game. If you are serious tho, just watch ESO closely for next several months and learn.

  maple2

Novice Member

Joined: 7/27/11
Posts: 103

2/17/14 5:29:18 AM#59
the engine for this game is Chubby and crappy.. it works really badly and is in general bad
  maple2

Novice Member

Joined: 7/27/11
Posts: 103

2/17/14 5:32:01 AM#60
Originally posted by Xarko
Originally posted by maple2
Originally posted by Xarko
Originally posted by maple2
it wont be a success and it wont last long before it either shuts down or go F2P... the game is just to horrible..

You have a lot to learn in the ways of trolling, my friend.

just how can something that is true be a troll? just cause u like to waste money on a game.. that requires a collectors edition to play a race that we was never told about..

really u have to pay 13 euros a month on top of that u have to pay like 50-60 euros for the bad game and if u want collecters its like 180+ euros or something 

 

honestly we are paying to ESCAPE THe stupid extra payout..

 

it should be F2p.. and truly enough the game will die after 1st month of gameplay when people bought it..

No I dont like to waste my money and I havent preordered the game. If you are serious tho, just watch ESO closely for next several months and learn.

I Watched Star wars online fail badly, Tera Failed quite fast, Rift as well, i Watched tons of games like Eso failling after a few months.

and Eso made the terrible decision to make us pay more then 200 dollas to play imperial race.. yes 200 dollas.. or roughly 145 euros.

and 2nd of all this game got  a really bad engine, fine graphics but really chubby. combat system is really bad, no flashy armor? or swords? no thanks

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