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Elder Scrolls Online

Elder Scrolls Online 

General Discussion  » Smedly predicts ESO will be successfu and have ALOT of players.

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79 posts found
  osc8r

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/30/06
Posts: 701

2/16/14 11:37:17 PM#21
Originally posted by AlBQuirky

What a stupid thread. What do you EXPECT Smedly to say? "This game will suck! Big Time!" Really?

Name one developer, publisher, lead designer, CEO, COO, president, whatever that does NOT say "My game will do great!"

FYI, Smedley doesn't work for Zenimax, so ESO isn't his game but one of his competitors. And yes, there are plenty of business's out their that aren't afraid to slag off their competition... though in this case i'd say he's just making a educated guess/prediction.

  bcbully

Elite Member

Joined: 3/03/12
Posts: 7240

2/16/14 11:40:49 PM#22
Originally posted by osc8r
Originally posted by AlBQuirky

What a stupid thread. What do you EXPECT Smedly to say? "This game will suck! Big Time!" Really?

Name one developer, publisher, lead designer, CEO, COO, president, whatever that does NOT say "My game will do great!"

FYI, Smedley doesn't work for Zenimax, so ESO isn't his game but one of his competitors. And yes, there are plenty of business's out their that aren't afraid to slag off their competition.

He also said that it would do a swtor, sell a lot, lose a lot.

 

The thread title is very misleading. A half truth.

When I eat chocolate chip pie it just doesn't feel like chocolate chip cookies. The texture, the consistency, it's just not the same and this is disappointing.

  Draemos

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/20/10
Posts: 1462

2/16/14 11:49:54 PM#23
RvR is extremely well done and will give a lot of reprieve for gaps between content releases. 
  GuyClinch

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/28/13
Posts: 477

2/16/14 11:58:05 PM#24

No developer can make content fast enough to keep up with theme park addicts. This is absolutely true. The second part of the statement is that no 'real' sandbox game has content interesting enough to attract the wide following that theme parks do.

WoW has 7.8 million accounts - Eve has 500k. Its true that most of those WoW players haven't been there since Vanilla and even if they haven't been there they are playing regularly. But they draw of a good theme park game is much stronger then a real sandbox game.

With sandbox you have to make your own fun. With a themepark game - its right there for the taking. People want to be entertained - not have a second career as a game designer.

  greenreen

Advanced Member

Joined: 11/19/12
Posts: 1444

2/17/14 12:02:21 AM#25
Originally posted by GuyClinch

No developer can make content fast enough to keep up with theme park addicts. This is absolutely true. The second part of the statement is that no 'real' sandbox game has content interesting enough to attract the wide following that theme parks do.

,,,snip

True, that's why ppl came up with that content locust term. They devour then move on.

I think that's why a lot of us keep suggesting housing to them as a future thing. It gives you more sandbox to play inside and any stuff you get roaming around you have ownership somewhere to dump it.

I wondered when I saw "trophy" on a fish if that was a pre-cursor in planning but it's probably not related but knowing they've made a category for trophies is a good start.

They've also got hundreds of books for people to collect. Get bored, read a story you collected, maybe it will alert your spidey senses to something to find.

  reeereee

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/22/13
Posts: 707

2/17/14 12:03:33 AM#26
As I understand it there is no distinction between PvP gear and PvE gear, which will make traditional progression style raiding impossible with out the PvPers freaking out because the best PvP gear is only available from PvE, and since it's shaping up to be a PvP centric game that seems unlikely.
  DMKano

Elite Member

Joined: 6/17/11
Posts: 5352

2/17/14 12:04:37 AM#27
Originally posted by Draemos
RvR is extremely well done and will give a lot of reprieve for gaps between content releases. 

Too soon to call it - IMO after 3 months of AvAvA - at that point we'll be able to say if it's well done or not.

Just not enough longterm play with masses of players to say one way or another yet.

 

  greenreen

Advanced Member

Joined: 11/19/12
Posts: 1444

2/17/14 12:05:15 AM#28
There is specific PVP gear, I've seen screens of it.
  reeereee

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/22/13
Posts: 707

2/17/14 12:14:10 AM#29
Originally posted by greenreen
There is specific PVP gear, I've seen screens of it.

Never mind then, I think I was mislead because the VR seems to span both PvE and PvP content

  Knotwood

Novice Member

Joined: 2/08/14
Posts: 1112

 
OP  2/17/14 12:20:05 AM#30
Originally posted by MikeB

Sorry to burst your bubble, but no developer can keep up with the content needs of a themepark game. The same will be true for ESO and for WildStar. The way these games work out is to have other compelling reasons to continue playing aside from just consuming content. For ESO, this likely rests on Cyrodiil. For WS, possibly super tough endgame content and maybe PvP offerings in Warplots and such. Keep in mind that even these are potentially big 'ifs', especially with a subscription tacked on.

 

I'll be playing ESO come launch, but I have no delusions about what 30 days later will look like for people who are primarily interested in consuming content. For anyone not captivated by Cyrodiil, I'm expecting a whole lot of, "Finished 50++! What do I do now?!" posts unless Adventure Zones end up being compelling enough to pad that out a bit.

If you look at what Nick the dev says in his interview on the ESO Alliance after being asked how much content there is at 50.  He explains tons of things for end game play that sound like atleast a good three months worth of content.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80mHQNA45js    1:29:45    Nicks comments on end game progression content.

 

He talks about end game for PVP, Overland, Vetern zones, and Vetern dungeons.   Says "insane number of hours".    

 

We have to find out just how much content they have in these adventure zones and raiding.     When he talked about raiding he talked about how he was a WoW hardcore gamer, and he says without spoilers that it he enjoyed it at those kind of levels, so I know raiding must be longer then just FFXIV's  camping T5 all week.  

 

We'll have to see just how much "insane amount of hours"  truly mean.  To me it sounds al teast 3 months worth but I'll let you make your own conclusion on that.

 

I also agree that no modern developer can keep up with content.   I just know ESO will probably be the one who will have the most updates we've seen from any other company out there.   SOE is right to go Sandbox because it never updates any of their past games.   It has one of the largest graveyards for games I have ever seen, but I think there is still companies like Smed said, that can pull this off, and Zennimax/Bethesda softworks I think is probably the only one in modern gaming that can.

  bcbully

Elite Member

Joined: 3/03/12
Posts: 7240

2/17/14 12:22:34 AM#31
Originally posted by greenreen
There is specific PVP gear, I've seen screens of it.

Gear as in style not stat.

When I eat chocolate chip pie it just doesn't feel like chocolate chip cookies. The texture, the consistency, it's just not the same and this is disappointing.

  keithian

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/20/06
Posts: 2974

2/17/14 12:35:09 AM#32
Originally posted by MikeB

Sorry to burst your bubble, but no developer can keep up with the content needs of a themepark game. The same will be true for ESO and for WildStar. The way these games work out is to have other compelling reasons to continue playing aside from just consuming content. For ESO, this likely rests on Cyrodiil. For WS, possibly super tough endgame content and maybe PvP offerings in Warplots and such. Keep in mind that even these are potentially big 'ifs', especially with a subscription tacked on.

SOE's refocusing to sandbox games has to do with the fact that systems keep players engaged for far longer than new content does.  If you continue to see themeparks, they're more likely to be 'sandparks' like ArcheAge or EQ Next. Games with a focus on systems, but with some level of developer created content layered on top.

SWTOR's inability to keep up with content consumption wasn't for a lack of resources. They had an insanely huge team (both pre and post launch) and a huge budget. They simply underestimated how long it would take for people to churn through the content they made. I think they pegged it at three months when it was more like a month or a month and a half.

I'll be playing ESO come launch, but I have no delusions about what 30 days later will look like for people who are primarily interested in consuming content. For anyone not captivated by Cyrodiil, I'm expecting a whole lot of, "Finished 50++! What do I do now?!" posts unless Adventure Zones end up being compelling enough to pad that out a bit.

One person in a Q & A with Tamriel Foundry i believe said it took him 70 hrs hitting the space bar. Another said 6 days skimming through everything, though who knows how many Hours each day it was. I think we will see people hit 50 in under a week for sure. Does that mean that the average player will be at 50 within 1 month, I hope not. Am I the one one with a job and activities outside of my computer? Lol. If they do keep to their release schedule, they will retain a lot more than TOR did. Of course a sandbox can house content longer, but it normally also houses a smaller base of customers compared to the top themeparks. IMO if  the game sheds the space bar pushers who aren't into PVP either, that's probably better for the community.

There Is Always Hope!

  spizz

Novice Member

Joined: 7/11/04
Posts: 2585

2/17/14 12:35:58 AM#33
Originally posted by Knotwood

I almost missed this one, but the article on MMORPG front page the other day talked about Smedly's comment on sandboxs.   What I found inside it made my jaw drop....

 

http://www.mmorpg.com/gamelist.cfm/game/952/feature/8220/Smedley-the-Sandbox-and-Online-Society.html

 

http://smedsblog.com/2014/02/11/the-sandbox-mmo/comment-page-2/

 

To make a long story short, he talks about how sandboxs are the future because people blow threw content faster then a company can make content for it.    He mentions SWTOR as having ran out of content too fast and players left, and he predicts this will eventually happen to ESO also.

 

 

This is where Smed predicts ESO success well into the future because Zennimax has huge pockets and plans to provide content well into the future before any of us run out of it.

 

"Don’t get me wrong.. someone with deep pockets can still pull it off." - Smed 

 

Then goes on to predict that TESO will end like SWTOR because of people going thorough content too fast. 

 

"TESO looks like it’s going to follow the content model and it’s going to have a lot of players. I’m willing to bet that it hits the same problem that  SWTOR did. Just not enough to do."     - Smed

 

 

I think what Smed dint realize is that Zenimax has DEEP Pockets, and can pull this off, and WONT end up like SWTOR because they have a full team of developers with 100s of hours all ready lined up for us at launch, with Content updates every 4-6 weeks.   We'll have to see if Smed is right or not.   My bet is he's wrong on this one.

 

His lack of will to spend money to provide full content could actually be his undoing if hes not watchful enough to see that Pleyrs who see content like ESO's content as next gen content, might just pass up sandboxes over it, if its constantly coming in and keeps doing what ESO's content looks like.

 

I cant follow exactly how players are done with the content "immidately after release".

Only people who have no life can do that.

He says aswell the following:

"SWTOR - a very well don game" - however people went throug the conten so quickly they became bored.

 

Excuse me, this might be partially right but overall it is nonsens.

The reasons why SWTOR did fail had several issues not just the mentioned one.

* gameworld was steril and lifeless

* Questing + Gameworld on Rails without much freedom

* a world without anything to explore only datacoms (?) actually similar to the crystals in ESO

* PvP area did not work at all and later it was closed. And in the short time the pvp area did work it showed how aweful it was. People were just standing around and killing each other for points.....it was a focking joke.

* instead of StarWars people got Huttenball pvp with tiny maps

* a failed mini space game without multiplayer

* just one social Hub with all players on this station.

 

The whole game was rather a scandal for bioware instead saying they can be proud of it.

Sorry, but it is like putting a lipstick on a pig.

 

 

What ESO needs is for sure pve endgame content and Iam missing informations about this, therefore Iam a bit sceptical about this part of the game. The pvp seems promsing on the other hand, but I would suggest adding some battlegrounds with later expansions packs.

  reeereee

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/22/13
Posts: 707

2/17/14 12:38:14 AM#34
Originally posted by Knotwood

I think what Smed dint realize is that Zenimax has DEEP Pockets, and can pull this off, and WONT end up like SWTOR because they have a full team of developers with 100s of hours all ready lined up for us at launch, with Content updates every 4-6 weeks.   We'll have to see if Smed is right or not.   My bet is he's wrong on this one.

 

His lack of will to spend money to provide full content could actually be his undoing if hes not watchful enough to see that Pleyrs who see content like ESO's content as next gen content, might just pass up sandboxes over it, if its constantly coming in and keeps doing what ESO's content looks like.

I think I'm having a flashback to 2012.

  DKLond

Elite Member

Joined: 5/21/08
Posts: 555

2/17/14 12:54:22 AM#35

A true player-driven content model is a dream come true.

However, I'd like to see how they balance it all and implement that freedom before I start clapping my hands.

A sandbox design is the kind of thing that's easy to promise but much, much harder to deliver in a way that actually works.

Also, without significant content by the developers, you're just providing players with an empty shell - and that doesn't work either.

So, not only do they have to provide intelligent design, balance and implementation of player created content - they ALSO have to provide content on the same level as a major themepark game.

So far, we've seen an editor and a lot of talk.

  tom_gore

Novice Member

Joined: 2/27/09
Posts: 1803

2/17/14 2:43:37 AM#36

Having tested ESO I can pretty much stand behind Smed's words. It will totally do a "SWTOR" and have a massive player crash after 1-2 months of release, will go F2P within 18 months of release and keep lingering for several years after that.

Smedley has absolutely nothing to fear from ESO when compared to EQN (Landmark). They are completely different beasts and my prediction the SOE beast will easily win this battle.

I could be wrong, of course, but I rarely am when it comes to MMORPGs ;)

 

  DKLond

Elite Member

Joined: 5/21/08
Posts: 555

2/17/14 2:52:39 AM#37
Originally posted by tom_gore

Having tested ESO I can pretty much stand behind Smed's words. It will totally do a "SWTOR" and have a massive player crash after 1-2 months of release, will go F2P within 18 months of release and keep lingering for several years after that.

Smedley has absolutely nothing to fear from ESO when compared to EQN (Landmark). They are completely different beasts and my prediction the SOE beast will easily win this battle.

I could be wrong, of course, but I rarely am when it comes to MMORPGs ;)

 

Having tested ESO, I disagree.

ESO is in MUCH MUCH better shape, content-wise, than SWtOR was at launch.

Beyond that, it has a working PvP segment - which was a big part of the SWtoR PR campaign - and which utterly and completely failed to function as advertised.

Smedley is promoting the direction they've chosen to take - which is hardly a shock.

Do we expect him to say ESO took the right direction when Smedley did something else? Not likely.

  keithian

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/20/06
Posts: 2974

2/17/14 2:56:12 AM#38
Originally posted by tom_gore

Having tested ESO I can pretty much stand behind Smed's words. It will totally do a "SWTOR" and have a massive player crash after 1-2 months of release, will go F2P within 18 months of release and keep lingering for several years after that.

Smedley has absolutely nothing to fear from ESO when compared to EQN (Landmark). They are completely different beasts and my prediction the SOE beast will easily win this battle.

I could be wrong, of course, but I rarely am when it comes to MMORPGs ;)

 

I don't take this opinion very seriously because you are extremely sandbox biased....I mean you basically have admitted it yourself in your forum history. Regardless, you may be right, you may be wrong. I guess we shall see. I know for me I'll be still waiting around in the aftermath of the big tom_gore gaming crash prediction lol. Anyway, at least we agree on Occulus Rift :-).

There Is Always Hope!

  Spriggen

Apprentice Member

Joined: 2/09/13
Posts: 20

2/17/14 2:57:03 AM#39
Oh... So not only Smed can tell the ffuture but he likes to hold everyone by the balls with announcements like " oh everyone that ever played swg... This game is for you."
  khellus

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/23/13
Posts: 22

2/17/14 3:02:32 AM#40
Originally posted by Tierless

I think it will, for 3 months. By 6 it will be decreased a lot. 1 year, FTP. Its not bad, just not going to line up with Elder Scrolls level of expectations. People forget hoe incredible the single player games are. Hard for any MMO to match them.

you mean when modders are given the tools to do their thing. make unofficial bug fixes graphics overhauls and a mariad of other things?

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