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MMORPG.com Discussion Forums

General Discussion

General Discussion 

The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » New data settles it, F2P makes much more money than P2P

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515 posts found
  GeezerGamer

Elite Member

Joined: 4/03/12
Posts: 4128

Remember the blisters you'd get in the palm of your hand from the corner of that joystick?

1/22/14 12:14:46 PM#201
Originally posted by Cecropia
Originally posted by GeezerGamer
Originally posted by Phry
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by Hrimnir

Any way you cut it f2p is NOT good for the consumer.

Pretty good for me. Fun games to enjoy .. without paying  a cent. Tell me .. how is that not good for me?

i think i'll have to call you on that, because even F2P games withold quite a bit behind a paywall, so what games are you playing, and what level have you got to etc. that your happy with them and are having fun, without having had to pay a penny?

Not only that, but I'd be willing to bet that in the majority of these games he has so much fun in, he's probably made very little progression. It would be interesting to look at the total of his character sheets. I'd be willing to bet that 90% (or more) percent of his characters/accounts could be deleted and still not lose much.

Oh yeah, I've assumed the same for some time now, and it would indeed be interesting to get a look at how much he actually progressed in any given game from the sea of titles that he plays "without paying a cent".

However, I think there is one game he genuinely plays without paying and it goes by the name of mmorpg.com ;)

I hear it's quite the PVP game.

Recently started playing SWTOR. I am posting updates to my experience in this thread:
SWTOR Experience

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 9968

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

1/22/14 12:20:32 PM#202
Originally posted by Wolfhammer
Originally posted by nariusseldon

reposting the link from another topic:

http://www.superdataresearch.com/blog/us-digital-games-market/

But the point is:

In the top 10 money making games (and most listed here on MMORPG.com), all but ONE is sub-only (WOW).

And wow is only #7, and making less than half compared to LoL.

This pretty much shows that to make money, F2P beats P2P, and often you don't even need a virtual world.

I personally couldn't give a flying f**k OP...  FTP will never get a penny off me and I have hated every single one I have tried.

Only slight exception there I'll concede is Rift which was pretty decent.  But hey that was sub to start so had a lot of the production values in place when it went FTP.

 

I like this response.  It is simple, direct and appears very honest.  It presents a point of view and doesn't bother trying to force that point of view on anyone else.  The best part is that it doesn't try to rearrange reality to suit a personal opinion.

 

I have no idea who Wolfhammer really is, but in my mind, they find games they like and they play them and they are pretty happy with the games they play.  That, my friends, is a gamer.

 

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  greenreen

Elite Member

Joined: 11/19/12
Posts: 1375

1/22/14 1:15:57 PM#203
Originally posted by laokoko
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by laokoko
Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by AlBQuirky

 


Originally posted by nariusseldon
...snip


...snip

 

...snip
...snip

...snip

...snip

THe website never even say where they got their information from.

 

They do say where they got it from. What I would be more concerned about is that they have to guesstimate up if the 2m number is used while around 50m are projected. It reminds me of another company that releases reports all the time. They call around 1k people on the phone then weigh those people as a percentage of the population. I don't particularly like that company that does that but they show all the time on CNN or Reuters reporting. You know what they say - there are lies and there are damn lies in statistics.

Q: 
What type of data do we have and where do we get it?
A: 

Every month we collect the spending data of 2,850,000 unique paying online gamers directly from publishers and developers, totaling 50+ publishers and 450+ game titles.

 

The uncomfortable thing about these reports is for us armchair watchers. I'm not paying thousands to see the report so I can't pick it apart the way you normally would disseminate information so you are stuck with THEIR dissemination. That's where bias can be encountered. You see it even in weather reporting - is tomorrow "partly cloudy" or "partly sunny"? Depends on how you want to report it. I've brought up my skeptical thoughts coming through on why WOW is "bleeding" subscribers when losing 5m over a year while 5m F2P players there was no "bleeding" comment. That's the personal bias you get when you can't see the data because it's behind a "pay wall".

It's in your favor to not buy if you like what the data is saying because you can latch onto the authors' bias. If you don't agree then you have to pay to have a dissenting bias. Even if you do come up with a dissenting view, you probably can't refute the data publicly because you can't release parts of it to others without them too paying. What matters too for us is the MMO being used. Those aren't laid out and we all have MMO preferences and can tell you why people would or wouldn't pay in games we've tried because we were already there. 

Take this section from their list of titles.

"Central to this subscription are the month-to-month revenue estimates of the major MMO titles, such as League of Legends, World of Tanks, Counter-Strike Online, Guild Wars 2 and others."

I would only consider one of those an MMORPG - ONE. That's just me though. I won't convert to a MOBA. I'm an MMO player. I don't mix whisky and vodka. Some people play both but you can't say what people buy in a game where the only thing to do is compete for PVP is going to convince me that I would pay to harvest nodes in my MMORPG game. Competitive games are much more likely to induce spending simply because people want to be better by any means necessary. An MMORPG is about stretching it out. Taking a long journey for me, not being judged on a PVP match. I use PVP as a means in an MMO to get a fight with a smarter and less predictable opponent but it's not the totality of the game. I want to still wander off to PVE land and those games don't offer that. There is probably some who play both but an exact relationship isn't there, the games aren't the same. I used to play the heck out of Bejeweled but I have zero interest in Candy Crush - go figure. People are just unpredictable sometimes.

I can tell you that these reports wouldn't be for sale unless there were buyers. If there are buyers - that says to me that people in the industry don't see the subject as planted in stone with black and white decisions like people would like us to believe. All the discussion we have about this has surely been done 50times plus in their conversations. If someone is willing to buy these reports then they aren't convinced F2P or P2P is the guaranteed winner as reported once and expect that things don't fluctuate or change, they wouldn't be able to sell them repeatedly. So anyone saying that either side of the argument has won would only know that their winnings can drop at 5 million players on each side at any point. Sometimes it takes a year and sometimes one month - zing.

  CazNeerg

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/06/04
Posts: 2220

"So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb." Dark Helmet

1/22/14 1:22:35 PM#204
Originally posted by greenreen

The uncomfortable thing about these reports is for us armchair watchers. I'm not paying thousands to see the report so I can't pick it apart the way you normally would disseminate information so you are stuck with THEIR dissemination. That's where bias can be encountered. You see it even in weather reporting - is tomorrow "partly cloudy" or "partly sunny"? Depends on how you want to report it. I've brought up my skeptical thoughts coming through on why WOW is "bleeding" subscribers when losing 5m over a year while 5m F2P players there was no "bleeding" comment. That's the personal bias you get when you can't see the data because it's behind a "pay wall".

That particular distinction isn't bias, it's a recognition that losing 5 million subscribers means (over the course of twelve months) losing 900 million dollars of subscription revenue.  Losing 5 million free players could mean as small a loss as zero, if they were the free players who don't use the cash shop.

Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.

  greenreen

Elite Member

Joined: 11/19/12
Posts: 1375

1/22/14 1:37:16 PM#205
Originally posted by CazNeerg
Originally posted by greenreen

The uncomfortable thing about these reports is for us armchair watchers. I'm not paying thousands to see the report so I can't pick it apart the way you normally would disseminate information so you are stuck with THEIR dissemination. That's where bias can be encountered. You see it even in weather reporting - is tomorrow "partly cloudy" or "partly sunny"? Depends on how you want to report it. I've brought up my skeptical thoughts coming through on why WOW is "bleeding" subscribers when losing 5m over a year while 5m F2P players there was no "bleeding" comment. That's the personal bias you get when you can't see the data because it's behind a "pay wall".

That particular distinction isn't bias, it's a recognition that losing 5 million subscribers means (over the course of twelve months) losing 900 million dollars of subscription revenue.  Losing 5 million free players could mean as small a loss as zero, if they were the free players who don't use the cash shop.

If they weren't cash shop users, and if they were?

Things like that aren't being reported that would be important to the discussion.

Now you will believe they were all non-payers because you want them to be. But you saw in the "Methodology" section that they claim to be polling only the payers therefore their 5m number were included as payers.

Without explicit definitions in the text you have to aggregate knowledge points that are on disparate sources requiring research. See, you chose to find the bright side and the evidence of the methodology they use refute it but they won't tell you that as long as you want to see the sunshine. You are agreeing with them all out, even enough to make up information to support them when they told you the data comes from payers not free players.

My complaint about their reporting still stands - if one is "bleeding" at 5m loss over a year, another should be "bleeding" at a 5m loss over one month. Reporting needs to be uniform - that's all I'm asking. Have your bias personally but don't call it a fact to me when you use adjectives for one set and not the other. A report would call them both a "bleeding" impact.

  Gaendric

Apprentice Member

Joined: 4/20/04
Posts: 279

1/22/14 2:21:39 PM#206

In the end it doesn't even really matter how reliable the sources are, because basically every time data was used in this thread it was either misunderstood by the user or misrepresented / misused in order to support bogus claims or the user forgot to mention that the shown data is more or less irrelevant because important parts of it are simply missing. 

 

5 billion revenue could mean 5 billion totally failed games that generate $1 each before instantly dying for all that we know. :)

The global market size of potatoes being bigger than the market size for Maseratis doesn't mean I would rather get a potato for christmas.

 

The mind projection fallacy is the assumption that our subjective judgments (or lack thereof) reflect intrinsic qualities of objects or reality in general.

  nariusseldon

Elite Member

Joined: 12/21/07
Posts: 17961

 
OP  1/22/14 3:03:24 PM#207
Originally posted by Gaendric

In the end it doesn't even really matter how reliable the sources are, because basically every time data was used in this thread it was either misunderstood by the user or misrepresented / misused in order to support bogus claims or the user forgot to mention that the shown data is more or less irrelevant because important parts of it are simply missing. 

 

5 billion revenue could mean 5 billion totally failed games that generate $1 each before instantly dying for all that we know. :)

The global market size of potatoes being bigger than the market size for Maseratis doesn't mean I would rather get a potato for christmas.

 

Or you can look at the total revenue increase year over year. You can argue if that means there are many games dying, or the same games are making more, but you can't get away from the fact that there are more money in F2P games.

 

  laokoko

Apprentice Member

Joined: 9/14/09
Posts: 1845

1/22/14 3:05:53 PM#208
Originally posted by Gaendric

In the end it doesn't even really matter how reliable the sources are, because basically every time data was used in this thread it was either misunderstood by the user or misrepresented / misused in order to support bogus claims or the user forgot to mention that the shown data is more or less irrelevant because important parts of it are simply missing. 

 

5 billion revenue could mean 5 billion totally failed games that generate $1 each before instantly dying for all that we know. :)

The global market size of potatoes being bigger than the market size for Maseratis doesn't mean I would rather get a potato for christmas.

 

The website misinterprete the data already. 

They dont' know lineage actually have a subscription in many areas.  So they act as the total revenue are all from micro transaction while a huge percent is actually from subscription.

They said their source are from the publisher themself.  The thing is you can't even trust the publishder data.  They like to boaster data to bring more hype to their game.

That being said, the topic isn't even about mmorpg.  Since 2 of 4 mmorpg are actually subscription.  1 of them are freemium with a huge percent of the player actually pay subscription.  So the only game left is maplestory(which I believe is the only one without subscription).

Dont' get me wrong, F2P is big.  Most of the revenue from Maple Story is probably from asians.  And there are a bunch of F2P games in asia that can match maple story.  Unlike western publisher, asian games either go subscription or microtransaction.  Very few have freemium.

  ZizouX

Elite Member

Joined: 5/17/11
Posts: 602

1/22/14 3:33:12 PM#209
Originally posted by lizardbones

Try this infographic out.

http://www.superdataresearch.com/blog/infographic-digital-games-year-review-2013/

 

P2P = 2.8B in sales, F2P = 8.3B in sales.

I can't believe how some people arnt' making the following point.

 

There ARE WAY MORE F2P games on the market with micro transactions than PURE P2P games.   It's easy to make 4x the amount a p2p games make when there are 10x the number of f2p games.

 

This is a stupid analysis.... F2P CAN BE very successful, like SWTOR.  P2P can be very successful like WoW.  You have to analyze EACH game by itself.

 

For example, let's say FFXIV has 400k subscribers.  When it's all said and done, it makes a very nice profit.  If the operations cost for SWTOR is 1 million (purely for example) and it makes 1 million in profit.. that's a great return on investment.  If another F2P has operations cost of 500k, but only makes 600k and 100k profit.. maybe that's not so great.

 

However, both free to play games get into the pile and you can say, wow, those two games make 1.6 million combined!!! that must be better than P2p.

 

So many comaprisions between apples and oranges in this thread it's not even funny.  Just because one free to play game is successful it doesn't mean that ALL f2p games are sucessful  Swtor may have a better model than other f2p, and WoW clearly shows P2p is the way to go.  If F2P was better, why hasn't WoW switched years ago?

 

Each game has it's own merits, has its own costs and has its own model.  Analyze it individually.

  CazNeerg

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/06/04
Posts: 2220

"So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb." Dark Helmet

1/22/14 3:49:33 PM#210
Originally posted by ZizouX

Each game has it's own merits, has its own costs and has its own model.  Analyze it individually.

Your point is well taken, but to be fair, when you look at the numbers from that report, every single game on the top ten list is making more from it's cash shop than any game other than WoW has *ever* made in a year from subscriptions.  So, while there may be a lot of poorly implemented F2P games that make less than sub games, well done F2P appears to offer substantially higher potential revenue for new games than subscriptions alone can compete with.

Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.

  ZizouX

Elite Member

Joined: 5/17/11
Posts: 602

1/22/14 4:03:42 PM#211
Originally posted by CazNeerg
Originally posted by ZizouX

Each game has it's own merits, has its own costs and has its own model.  Analyze it individually.

Your point is well taken, but to be fair, when you look at the numbers from that report, every single game on the top ten list is making more from it's cash shop than any game other than WoW has *ever* made in a year from subscriptions.  So, while there may be a lot of poorly implemented F2P games that make less than sub games, well done F2P appears to offer substantially higher potential revenue for new games than subscriptions alone can compete with.

Free to play is the classical "Bait and switch."  They bait you with "free" and then charge you an arm and a leg for really essential quality of life upgrades (inventory and action bars).

 

4 months ago I went back to SWTOR to check out the digital expanion, the Cartel wars or something.  I had to pay a lot of credits I had accumlated to unlock action bars, inventory slots, etc.  I didn't pay any money because my old account had accumlated cartle points.

 

However, I saw nothing that showed me the horrible game engine had changed.  The game was essentially the same but not it was "free 2 play."

 

I'll reiterate what's been said in this thread.   Mcdonalds makes more money than a chain of salad restuarants.  Mcdonalds is 100x more profitable... however, profitable =/ quality.

 

Some companies makes the conscious decision that they are happy with a certain amount of profit without comprimising their brand name and their quality.  The rehaul of FFXIV comes to mind.

 

F2P, especially the SWTOR model reminds me of predatory lending.  It feeds off of people's base instincts and stupidity.  You think you're getting a free game or at least, for a nominal fee, but if you sit down and calcualte the amount of money you put into the f2p game, on average it will be more than p2p.  You have a lot of people who spend 100 bucks a month on a free2p game.  That pays for 6 people who don't spend a dime for the same period.

 

What is shocking to me is the people defending this model as "the way to go for all MMOS."  Let me ask you, are you happy with the content you get with the f2p model?  50% of the content is additional cash shop items.

 

Gamers should be up in arms that this model is akin to asking a fat man to eat a full cake everyday.  Most people have self control, but some don't, and those that don't are skewing these numbers into thinking this is a "good" model.

 

I have yet to see a F2P game that offers quality and justifies staying.  GW2 is the only one, but that's B2P and really doesn't offer much by way of "content."

  Miblet

Apprentice Member

Joined: 8/19/10
Posts: 320

1/22/14 4:07:37 PM#212
Originally posted by CazNeerg

Each game has ...every single game on the top ten list is making more from it's cash shop than any game other than WoW has *ever* made in a year from subscriptions....

Are you sure about that or is that a guess?

EQ at peak wasn't ludicrously far from 10 (yes it was still some way off, however that was during a time when the expected player base of the market was a fraction of what supposedly exists now, and when development costs were not as ludicrous).  In over 10 years you are saying none of the AAA titles have held onto enough of the initial population to best $121m?  It's possible but not something I would bet on.

  Vunak23

Hard Core Member

Joined: 11/27/10
Posts: 650

In your house Eatin' your Cookies!

1/22/14 4:21:20 PM#213
Originally posted by ZizouX
Originally posted by lizardbones

Try this infographic out.

http://www.superdataresearch.com/blog/infographic-digital-games-year-review-2013/

 

P2P = 2.8B in sales, F2P = 8.3B in sales.

I can't believe how some people arnt' making the following point.

 

There ARE WAY MORE F2P games on the market with micro transactions than PURE P2P games.   It's easy to make 4x the amount a p2p games make when there are 10x the number of f2p games.

 

This is a stupid analysis.... F2P CAN BE very successful, like SWTOR.  P2P can be very successful like WoW.  You have to analyze EACH game by itself.

 

For example, let's say FFXIV has 400k subscribers.  When it's all said and done, it makes a very nice profit.  If the operations cost for SWTOR is 1 million (purely for example) and it makes 1 million in profit.. that's a great return on investment.  If another F2P has operations cost of 500k, but only makes 600k and 100k profit.. maybe that's not so great.

 

However, both free to play games get into the pile and you can say, wow, those two games make 1.6 million combined!!! that must be better than P2p.

 

So many comaprisions between apples and oranges in this thread it's not even funny.  Just because one free to play game is successful it doesn't mean that ALL f2p games are sucessful  Swtor may have a better model than other f2p, and WoW clearly shows P2p is the way to go.  If F2P was better, why hasn't WoW switched years ago?

 

Each game has it's own merits, has its own costs and has its own model.  Analyze it individually.

 

I said the same thing earlier, but people are too dense to make the connections we did. 

"In the immediate future, we have this one, and then we’ve got another one that is actually going to be – so we’re going to have, what we want to do, is in January, what we’re targeting to do, this may or may not happen, so you can’t hold me to it. But what we’re targeting to do, is have a fun anniversary to the Ilum shenanigans that happened. An alien race might invade, and they might crash into Ilum and there might be some new activities that happen on the planet." ~Gabe Amatangelo

  ZizouX

Elite Member

Joined: 5/17/11
Posts: 602

1/22/14 4:31:24 PM#214
Originally posted by Vunak23
Originally posted by ZizouX
Originally posted by lizardbones

Try this infographic out.

http://www.superdataresearch.com/blog/infographic-digital-games-year-review-2013/

 

P2P = 2.8B in sales, F2P = 8.3B in sales.

I can't believe how some people arnt' making the following point.

 

There ARE WAY MORE F2P games on the market with micro transactions than PURE P2P games.   It's easy to make 4x the amount a p2p games make when there are 10x the number of f2p games.

 

This is a stupid analysis.... F2P CAN BE very successful, like SWTOR.  P2P can be very successful like WoW.  You have to analyze EACH game by itself.

 

For example, let's say FFXIV has 400k subscribers.  When it's all said and done, it makes a very nice profit.  If the operations cost for SWTOR is 1 million (purely for example) and it makes 1 million in profit.. that's a great return on investment.  If another F2P has operations cost of 500k, but only makes 600k and 100k profit.. maybe that's not so great.

 

However, both free to play games get into the pile and you can say, wow, those two games make 1.6 million combined!!! that must be better than P2p.

 

So many comaprisions between apples and oranges in this thread it's not even funny.  Just because one free to play game is successful it doesn't mean that ALL f2p games are sucessful  Swtor may have a better model than other f2p, and WoW clearly shows P2p is the way to go.  If F2P was better, why hasn't WoW switched years ago?

 

Each game has it's own merits, has its own costs and has its own model.  Analyze it individually.

 

I said the same thing earlier, but people are too dense to make the connections we did. 

I've done some number crunching.  the 139 million in digital sales is actually FANTASTIC.  You would need to have 900k subscribers paying $13 bucks a month to equal that; however, SWTOR released a digital expansion last year (Rise of the Hut Cartel) costing $30.  I would LOVE to know what thier ditial sales were in 2012.

 

Regardless, the microtransactions bring in 11.6 million dollars a month in revenue (not profit) which is twice as much as a game like FFXIV (which will bring in 5.2 million a month from subscriptions if they average 400k subscribers).

 

Here's the big elephant in the room though.  Star Wars is unique because of the IP.  You have a base of 1-2 million "free to play" players that can buy the digital expansion or buy from the cash shop at any moment.  you also have people who don't spend a dime in F2P arguing "IT's great... I don't spend a penny!"  Well, you also have Mr. $150 dollars a month in cartel points that pas for 9 others who havn't bought anything.

 

Long story short, this model works exceptionally well with SWTOR due to the IP.  How's this working out for Rift? LotR? Perfect World? Warhammer? AoC?  Not very good.

 

So with a company like FFXIV, do you want 5.2 million in steady, revenue with a loyal (and smaller fan base than SWTOR) to keep a game going... or do you want a F2P market where your IP cannot sustain the same as SWTOR (with movies, toys, cartoons, books etc).

 

SWTOR =/  that all MMOS should be F2P.

Wow =/ that all MMOS should be P2P.

 

As said earlier, this is a case by case basis.  Stop arguing one over the other.

 

PS: My preference is P2P with cosmetic cash shop items like Wow.  then you get the best of both worlds.  A steady subscription stream with spikes in profit from the cash shop.  However, I would venture to guess WoW subscription revnue is considerably higher than it's digital downloads.

 

I think FFXIV will do the same.  It's already been confirmed that cosmetic changes will be added to the FFXIV cash shop very soon, like paid name changes, server transfers, character race changes, etc.

  CazNeerg

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/06/04
Posts: 2220

"So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb." Dark Helmet

1/22/14 4:32:01 PM#215

Originally posted by ZizouX

What is shocking to me is the people defending this model as "the way to go for all MMOS."  Let me ask you, are you happy with the content you get with the f2p model?  50% of the content is additional cash shop items.

The best way to go is to have a subscription and a free option, with a cash shop.  That way the people who understand how these things work can do the smart thing and just subscribe, but the company still gets the money from all the idiots as well.  It would be irresponsible for them to leave that money on the table.

Originally posted by Miblet

Are you sure about that or is that a guess?

EQ at peak wasn't ludicrously far from 10 (yes it was still some way off, however that was during a time when the expected player base of the market was a fraction of what supposedly exists now, and when development costs were not as ludicrous).  In over 10 years you are saying none of the AAA titles have held onto enough of the initial population to best $121m?  It's possible but not something I would bet on.

I am sure about it for the last few years, since WoW has been the only game any time recently to have enough subs to make more on them than the lowest game in that list made on it's cash shop.  "Ever" was a guess.  I haven't actually checked to see whether EQ's numbers were high enough at some point in the earlier days to beat the lowest game on the list..

Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 9968

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

1/22/14 4:37:39 PM#216
Originally posted by ZizouX
Originally posted by lizardbones

Try this infographic out.

http://www.superdataresearch.com/blog/infographic-digital-games-year-review-2013/

 

P2P = 2.8B in sales, F2P = 8.3B in sales.

I can't believe how some people arnt' making the following point.

 

There ARE WAY MORE F2P games on the market with micro transactions than PURE P2P games.   It's easy to make 4x the amount a p2p games make when there are 10x the number of f2p games.

 

This is a stupid analysis.... F2P CAN BE very successful, like SWTOR.  P2P can be very successful like WoW.  You have to analyze EACH game by itself.

 

For example, let's say FFXIV has 400k subscribers.  When it's all said and done, it makes a very nice profit.  If the operations cost for SWTOR is 1 million (purely for example) and it makes 1 million in profit.. that's a great return on investment.  If another F2P has operations cost of 500k, but only makes 600k and 100k profit.. maybe that's not so great.

 

However, both free to play games get into the pile and you can say, wow, those two games make 1.6 million combined!!! that must be better than P2p.

 

So many comaprisions between apples and oranges in this thread it's not even funny.  Just because one free to play game is successful it doesn't mean that ALL f2p games are sucessful  Swtor may have a better model than other f2p, and WoW clearly shows P2p is the way to go.  If F2P was better, why hasn't WoW switched years ago?

 

Each game has it's own merits, has its own costs and has its own model.  Analyze it individually.

 

Well, for one, it's an industry analysis, not an individual game analysis.  No developer, F2P, P2P, digital sales or not is going to allow that kind of information to be released about an individual game.  As an industry analysis, it is correct.  F2P is making more money.

 

So here's a question.  Why are there more F2P games?  Is it easier to get investment dollars for F2P games?  Is it easier to setup a F2P game?  Or is it that in terms of cost and benefit, F2P makes more money?  Perhaps it's just that in today's market, for long term benefits, most games need to be F2P to sustain long term viability.

 

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  ZizouX

Elite Member

Joined: 5/17/11
Posts: 602

1/22/14 4:45:31 PM#217
Originally posted by lizardbones
 

 

So here's a question.  Why are there more F2P games?  Is it easier to get investment dollars for F2P games?  Is it easier to setup a F2P game?  Or is it that in terms of cost and benefit, F2P makes more money?  Perhaps it's just that in today's market, for long term benefits, most games need to be F2P to sustain long term viability.

 

Completely disagree.  This is revisionist history.  AoC, Warhammer, Rift, Aion, LoTR, Secret World and SWTOR ALL OF THEM started as P2P.  

 

If as you suggest, it's a no brainer to go F2P, why didn't they start out as a F2P model, why did they had to switch when teh games bombed?  It's because every single company PREFERS P2P.  Look at the MMOS coming out soon... why is Wildstar and Elder Scrolls Online coming out as P2P?  Yes, Everquest next is B2P model like GW2, but that just goes to show that "F2P" is the way to go is certainly NOT the case.

 

Steady, dependable subscription is what all these game makers are looking for, but sWTOR spent too much money to give up.  They relied on thier IP and came up with a model that works perfectly for them.  I cannot say the same for any other AAA mmo.

  CazNeerg

Hard Core Member

Joined: 8/06/04
Posts: 2220

"So, Lone Star, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb." Dark Helmet

1/22/14 4:50:50 PM#218
Originally posted by ZizouX

Completely disagree.  This is revisionist history.  AoC, Warhammer, Rift, Aion, LoTR, Secret World and SWTOR ALL OF THEM started as P2P.   

If as you suggest, it's a no brainer to go F2P, why didn't they start out as a F2P model, why did they had to switch when teh games bombed?  It's because every single company PREFERS P2P.  Look at the MMOS coming out soon... why is Wildstar and Elder Scrolls Online coming out as P2P?  Yes, Everquest next is B2P model like GW2, but that just goes to show that "F2P" is the way to go is certainly NOT the case.

 Steady, dependable subscription is what all these game makers are looking for, but sWTOR spent too much money to give up.  They relied on thier IP and came up with a model that works perfectly for them.  I cannot say the same for any other AAA mmo.

There is a difference between arguing games should go to a hybrid model, and arguing that they should start with one.  Initially, if you think you have the audience for it, purchase plus sub with no free option is the best model.  Long term, the market seems to be indicating that *all* new games are reaching the point where adding a free option and expanded cash shop improves revenue as compared to staying sub only.  It appears to be the case that starting without a sub, or trying to go long term without a free option, are both sub-optimal approaches.

As for EQN and Landmark, given SOE's recent announcement that they are going to one subscription giving you full access to all of their games, that is probably the reason they weren't announced as having their own dedicated subs, it would be inconsistent with the model they are building for the company as a whole.

Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me.

  ZizouX

Elite Member

Joined: 5/17/11
Posts: 602

1/22/14 4:59:41 PM#219
Originally posted by CazNeerg
Originally posted by ZizouX

Completely disagree.  This is revisionist history.  AoC, Warhammer, Rift, Aion, LoTR, Secret World and SWTOR ALL OF THEM started as P2P.   

If as you suggest, it's a no brainer to go F2P, why didn't they start out as a F2P model, why did they had to switch when teh games bombed?  It's because every single company PREFERS P2P.  Look at the MMOS coming out soon... why is Wildstar and Elder Scrolls Online coming out as P2P?  Yes, Everquest next is B2P model like GW2, but that just goes to show that "F2P" is the way to go is certainly NOT the case.

 Steady, dependable subscription is what all these game makers are looking for, but sWTOR spent too much money to give up.  They relied on thier IP and came up with a model that works perfectly for them.  I cannot say the same for any other AAA mmo.

There is a difference between arguing games should go to a hybrid model, and arguing that they should start with one.  Initially, if you think you have the audience for it, purchase plus sub with no free option is the best model.  Long term, the market seems to be indicating that *all* new games are reaching the point where adding a free option and expanded cash shop improves revenue as compared to staying sub only.  It appears to be the case that starting without a sub, or trying to go long term without a free option, are both sub-optimal approaches.

As for EQN and Landmark, given SOE's recent announcement that they are going to one subscription giving you full access to all of their games, that is probably the reason they weren't announced as having their own dedicated subs, it would be inconsistent with the model they are building for the company as a whole.

That doesn't make any sense though.  Using your own analysis, there would be NO REASON to ever go P2P since a combination of P2P/F2P with cash shop is the "best" way to go given today's market.  Using SWTOR as an example, it woudl have had to average 1 million subs to keep up with the digital revenue it receives now. 

 

Knowing that, why are OTHER companies continuing with the P2P model?  That would fly in the face of the empirical evidence that is repeatedly being cited in this thread.  If it's so Obvious what the model should be, how are the professional, paid, financial analysts at Elder Scrolls and Wildstar completly "missing the point."

 

I'll tell you Why.  Just like WoW, SWTOR is a special case.  WoW works great with P2P and if it didn't, it would have been full F2P a long time ago.  SWTOR ONLY works with the current model because of the IP.  THAT'S IT.  That is the same reason why this hybrid p2p/F2P model is not working for Rift, Aoc, Warhammer, Secret World, EQ2, LoTR, etc....

 

SWTOR is a unique case.  SWTOR's model would not work for a game like ESO or FFXIV.  These two games have a far SMALLER but very dedicated and loyal player base.  These games would work much better with a 250-600k subscriber base that offers a $13-15 sub.  This keeps them at a nice profit with steady income for years to come.  I don't care what ESO does, whether it's B2P or F2P it's not my type of game.  Free to play option will never entice me to play so it's a waste.

 

Basically, SWTOR is opiate for the masses.  It's McDonalds.   ESO and FFXIV may be In and Out or Carl's Junior.  The quality of the burgers may be higher, but not as widespread.  The latter two games know their player base and there is a model that suits their brand.

  Gaendric

Apprentice Member

Joined: 4/20/04
Posts: 279

1/22/14 5:05:06 PM#220

Yeah, I agree that what works for one game doesn't necessarily for an other.

They are all targeted at specific target audiences, thus their payment methods need to fit this specific group too.

Way too many generalizations in the thread.

One method is not better than the other in general. And it's not just one model or the other either, as shown by all the successful hybrid approaches. 

And that's a good thing, devs can mix and match and get the best possible profit out of their target market. More profits mean more content and polish for the running games and higher budgets for future games.

 

The mind projection fallacy is the assumption that our subjective judgments (or lack thereof) reflect intrinsic qualities of objects or reality in general.

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