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Elder Scrolls Online

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General Discussion  » Forbes Predicting Biggest Disaster of 2014

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323 posts found
  JJ82

Hard Core Member

Joined: 12/02/13
Posts: 1102

1/04/14 10:58:54 PM#221
Originally posted by Drakynn

Just because you may agree with the opinion of the article doesn't lend it any factual weight nor does your personal dislike of TESO.AoC failed for reasons other than being subscription as did SW:TOR .LoTRO despite what you say did find it's audience and was profitable even to the end of it's  subscription service which by the way coincided with Turbine being bought out by Warner Bros who made the call.

There is no empirical evidence as of yet to support the "no one wants a subscription service" argument put forth in fact the initial sales of all the games you mention support a large segment of gamers that do want said subscription service but haven't found a game that has long term staying power to keep paying a sub fee.

Now TESO and WIldstar may indeed provide data that the subscription MMO is dead if the games turn out good and  initial sales are poor as is the first few months retention  but until then it's just opinion and guessing.

 Oh the lulz.......that post has twice the daily recommended iron requirement.

GW2 with no sub sold over 3 million copies and Neverwinter has over 3 million accounts.

GW2, more sales than the last 3 sub based games combined. in fact, if you total GW2 and Neverwinter, they had more players than every subscription based game combined after WoW. So much for lack of empirical evidence.

"People who tell you you’re awesome are useless. No, dangerous.

They are worse than useless because you want to believe them. They will defend you against critiques that are valid. They will seduce you into believing you are done learning, or into thinking that your work is better than it actually is." ~Raph Koster
http://www.raphkoster.com/2013/10/14/on-getting-criticism/

  Iselin

The Listener

Joined: 3/04/08
Posts: 4151

1/05/14 2:05:24 AM#222
Originally posted by JJ82
Originally posted by Drakynn

Just because you may agree with the opinion of the article doesn't lend it any factual weight nor does your personal dislike of TESO.AoC failed for reasons other than being subscription as did SW:TOR .LoTRO despite what you say did find it's audience and was profitable even to the end of it's  subscription service which by the way coincided with Turbine being bought out by Warner Bros who made the call.

There is no empirical evidence as of yet to support the "no one wants a subscription service" argument put forth in fact the initial sales of all the games you mention support a large segment of gamers that do want said subscription service but haven't found a game that has long term staying power to keep paying a sub fee.

Now TESO and WIldstar may indeed provide data that the subscription MMO is dead if the games turn out good and  initial sales are poor as is the first few months retention  but until then it's just opinion and guessing.

 Oh the lulz.......that post has twice the daily recommended iron requirement.

GW2 with no sub sold over 3 million copies and Neverwinter has over 3 million accounts.

GW2, more sales than the last 3 sub based games combined. in fact, if you total GW2 and Neverwinter, they had more players than every subscription based game combined after WoW. So much for lack of empirical evidence.

GW2 is actually a damn good MMO and stands alone as the only B2P + cash shop game so far. The 3 million box sales is actually a good reflection of its quality.

 

But I can't believe you're bringing Neverwinter into this and trying to make some point based on it. It takes no money or commitment of any sort to create a Neverwinter account and the only effort required is downloading it and installing it.

 

Given that and the fact that in the US alone there are an estimated 50 Million MMO players (400 Million and growing worldwide,) 3 million accounts is pretty piss poor market penetration for something that is free to download and free (sort of) to play... don't you think? It'd be more accurate to say that except for a small blip of 0.75% of MMO players, Neverwinter can't be give away for free... how's that for lulz?

 

 http://www.newzoo.com/infographics/the-global-mmo-market-sizing-and-seizing-opportunities/

 

  ThomasN7

Novice Member

Joined: 3/17/07
Posts: 6672

"Had to be me. Someone else might have gotten it wrong.” - Mordin Solus

1/05/14 2:29:28 AM#223
When I saw there was pvp in the game that immediately turned me off about the game.  Been playing ES games for years and not once have I ever wanted to pvp in an ES game, ever... 
  greenreen

Hard Core Member

Joined: 11/19/12
Posts: 1515

1/05/14 2:49:29 AM#224
Originally posted by JJ82
Originally posted by Drakynn

Just because you may agree with the opinion of the article doesn't lend it any factual weight nor does your personal dislike of TESO.AoC failed for reasons other than being subscription as did SW:TOR .LoTRO despite what you say did find it's audience and was profitable even to the end of it's  subscription service which by the way coincided with Turbine being bought out by Warner Bros who made the call.

There is no empirical evidence as of yet to support the "no one wants a subscription service" argument put forth in fact the initial sales of all the games you mention support a large segment of gamers that do want said subscription service but haven't found a game that has long term staying power to keep paying a sub fee.

Now TESO and WIldstar may indeed provide data that the subscription MMO is dead if the games turn out good and  initial sales are poor as is the first few months retention  but until then it's just opinion and guessing.

 Oh the lulz.......that post has twice the daily recommended iron requirement.

GW2 with no sub sold over 3 million copies and Neverwinter has over 3 million accounts.

GW2, more sales than the last 3 sub based games combined. in fact, if you total GW2 and Neverwinter, they had more players than every subscription based game combined after WoW. So much for lack of empirical evidence.

Is your theory that because Chinese people like rice, rice is the best food on the planet because rice is the most consumed food on the planet. You didn't name the "last 3 sub based games combined" and show their numbers.

It couldn't be SWTOR in that list and it couldn't be Rift together because they together had 3 million on their side too. Which 3 sub based games combined weren't living up to GW2's sales standards - you forgot to mention those?

These are some early quotes on sales for those games.

"Perhaps most interestingly to players, however, is the fact that EA has reported sales of more than 2 million units of The Old Republic with about 1.7 million subscribers."

"We are on the verge of selling our 1 millionth unit of Rift," he said in a phone interview. He stressed that the figure represents units sold to consumers, not shipped to retailers. Each sale includes a 30-day subscription to the game. "These [numbers represent] real people who have bought the client, installed it, paid for it and played the game," he said.

***************************

Again, you'll have to backup that every subscription based game "after WOW" you have their numbers on subscribers and the addition of them to come up with less than 6 million. Which is curious that YOU are making the decision to say that WOW doesn't count. That's because it doesn't suit you amirite - cut out the largest known subscriber game then say - see, free games are better. So now that I will re-include WOW, your 6 million players are covered, let's go over a little more about the rest of the free player versus sub player existence because you don't even have 6 million there so I'm being generous.

***************************

I think you get away with too much when you talk about a free game and how many accounts they have had. You don't know that the same people aren't being counted twice especially if the entry price of a game is not a barrier for playing multiple games. I have news for you about GW2, it doesn't have 3m players now, only in its wettest dreams. You prove to me they have 3 million active players and I'll agree with you but there is no way they kept 100% of their base or replaced it all, I'm sure of that just by the views in their forums. In your second statement you even assumed that every box sold was still a player. That's just bad math and bad logic. You must know that.

You are stacking the deck in your favor because subscription numbers are closely guarded while free player numbers are screamed from the rafters though you don't hear GW2 shouting out their numbers any longer. If you hear about accounts, Runescape will tell you that they have had 200 million accounts made - their subs which are around 500k right now count as those account that you would call free if you were to remark on the game the way you are using numbers because to you - if one person doesn't pay, no-one paid. That doesn't keep a company afloat and you know it isn't true or happening.

You also slyly forget to mention that a game having a freemium monthly payment possible that give the player enough perks that it play like a sub game are part of what is supporting some of these "free" games.

You essentially call players who are paying a sub fee rate or more "free players" because they are in the same game where other players are playing for free.

When it suits you - you are lumping together free and paying players while calling them all free players and worse saying that people have no interest in paying for games when they are already doing it  while the only reason free players exist in the free games is because someone else is paying more money essentially  subsidizing their ability to be inside the game completely. Biting the hand that feeds you and claiming it doesn't exist, naughty naughty.

This doesn't even factor in lifetime subscriptions where people pay around a years worth of gameplay time upfront. LOTRO and  Secret World both had lifetime subs and both are now free. Look at the shock and surprise on my little face.

The biggest problem with all the things your surmise on this thread is that the bottom line is - you don't like this game - you've posted before you don't want a PVP end-game and specifically stated that that's why you won't be playing Elder Scrolls Online. but you are so unhappy about it not being the game for you that you keep trying to come back to this thread and spoil everyone elses enjoyment whether it's apathetic monochrome interest or genuine interest. If someone isn't saying this game is going into dumpsters day 2 because YOU don't want to play it, you keep coming back making up things to try to accuse their interest of being fanbois when I have seen many people in support of this game also reply with things they were concerned about. No one has painted a bed of roses yet that's what I think you believe is going on and that's why you are railing so hard. 

You know what is the one thing that would scare people away from a sub model game? Dishonest companies who have abused it previously and they all proudly wear their free moniker now. This game will have to take the bullet for their money grabbing tactics and THAT is the real shame here because they talk like they really care about this game.

 

  Miklosan

Novice Member

Joined: 7/17/08
Posts: 179

1/05/14 3:00:08 AM#225

Forget about it folks.. if a game turns out to have 1, yes one!! paying customer some crazy folks here on this site would consider it a sucess! (swtor a sucess?)

 

Now, will ESO be a disaster or not...? We just gonna have to wait and see... I hope it will do just fine!

  Doogiehowser

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/14/12
Posts: 1954

1/05/14 7:28:54 AM#226
Originally posted by Burntvet
Originally posted by Doogiehowser
Originally posted by Burntvet

I agree with the article.

They spent too much money making another average theme-park game, and thus it will be hard to recoup the investment.

And it has nothing to do with which business model they chose, instead they depend on the IP to sell boxes instead of creating deep gameplay mechanics and innovative systems. (Plus it is the company of "That's too hard....")

That is the problem.

 

Did you even read the article? ofcourse you didn't. They are just basing their predictions on viability of sub model in todays market.

It being an average themepark is your own opinion. 

Yes I did read the article, and to me it comes down to the fact that it is not that people won't pay for a sub, it is that they won't pay for a sub, in the current market for the same game, again, for the Nth time.  Because they can play plenty of average games for "free". As such, it will be hard to recoup what they spent on it.

Were ESO some great, groundbreaking, super game, it would make back plenty of money and then some, regardless of the revenue model. But the isn't great or groundbreaking in any way, it is simply set in the ES world.

And that is not enough.

 

As for being average, I tried the beta, and the game is average. Most other people, if they are honest about it, will say the same thing.

I have heard that million times over on these forums and yet when a different MMO comes along people still refuse the support the game on pure sub model.

Sorry been here long enough to smell the BS from far away.

"The problem is that the hardcore folks always want the same thing: 'We want exactly what you gave us before, but it has to be completely different.'
-Jesse Schell

"Online gamers are the most ludicrously entitled beings since Caligula made his horse a senator, and at least the horse never said anything stupid."
-Luke McKinney

  BearKnight

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/24/13
Posts: 460

1/05/14 7:43:44 AM#227
Originally posted by Toxia

http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2014/01/02/predicting-the-biggest-disaster-of-2014-the-elder-scrolls-online/

 

Thoughts?

Agree wholeheartedly about the Biggest Disaster of 2014, however the writer has no idea what they're talking about with regard to "Subscription monthly fee" being dated. It is, by far, the best model out there. However, when a company doesn't give two craps about the content for a game and think anyone will pay simply for a good IP (coughSWTORcough) then it isn't worth a subscription. 

 

If a game isn't worth a subscription, it isn't the business model that is at fault, it is the game itself.

 

General rule of thumb = F2P, expect low quality....P2P, expect high quality. 

 

When you get a LOW quality piece of generalized gameplay from a P2P MMO it just pisses people off. This is why "F2P" has become the fad for up coming companies, but is by no means a pointer that says "Don't go subscription model! People don't want it anymore!"

 

NO, what people do NOT want is to be ripped off by asking for a box price + subscription when you haven't even taken the time to invest properly into the gameplay of a product before touting it as the next "Big Killer of X". THAT, is what people are tired of. Subscription model is fine and dandy, and is still preferred by the masses.

  Tr3ize

Advanced Member

Joined: 11/05/09
Posts: 35

1/05/14 8:16:36 AM#228

The thing with all these predictions of late is that they are nothing more than pure speculation. TESO is not SW:TOR or AoC, it's TESO. There might be a resemblance but it isn't the same game, it isn't released on the same date or by the same people, nor is it made by the same people.

There's absolutely nothing in that article that can support the "journalist's" claim. Like with every MMO released the past few years, wait till it's actually released before you jump on a wagon, be it pro or contra.

  rodarin

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/21/10
Posts: 462

1/05/14 1:18:41 PM#229

It will be buy to play soon enough, more than likely well before Christmas (which will likely have a new update/expansion of some sort as well. Or they may coincide.

 

People can make all the claims they want about subs, theyre mostly invalid. But Zenimax will charge a sub for as long as they think they can get away with it. Which isnt very long by recent history. So they getthe best of all worlds. they have the guys who love subs supporting them financially, then they will get the people who buy stuff in the cash shop supporting them after that. The irony is the people who paid the sub will be the first to leave once it goes buy to pay or free to play. Game wont change, will probably get better but these guys usually get butt hurt and stop playing on some twisted sense of principle.

 

Had these guys (Zenimax) had the ability to have the tore 100% committed it would have been released as a buy to play game. But if the rumors are true and they need to recoup 200 mil in development costs I can understand them looking to squeeze 15 bux a month out of as many people as they can.

 

Regardless it will sell a lot of copies. It will get the same talk after release as it is now. Some will love it some will hate it and most will fall in the middle. But it takes a lot more than that to justify a sub.

  ReaperJoda

Novice Member

Joined: 1/05/14
Posts: 76

..."WoW copied of EQ the true 1st 3D MMO and leader of the modern MMO genre."

1/05/14 1:23:48 PM#230
....chalk another one up!!!  EQN will be next, if it doesn't either autocorrect its path and learn and improve on EQ1 playstyle and game play or change its name to NOT EQnext, but WOWnext.
  Axxar

Hard Core Member

Joined: 12/09/08
Posts: 2080

"See how I reward those who fail me!"

1/05/14 1:51:23 PM#231
I'm thinking people hating on SWTOR currently will be hating on TESO instead within a year or two after release. While they're hyping their new favourite MMO they will make passing attacks at TESO and type BS on how much it cost and how much it isn't being profitable.

"Tiny clown, he got wet. I was talking to a psychic and I can't sleep in the ozone. There are too many different peanuts, looking sad.

  thunderC

Advanced Member

Joined: 5/17/12
Posts: 431

1/05/14 2:50:11 PM#232
I agree 100% with whoever wrote this forbes article. Elder Scrolls series has been one of my favorites over the past 10 years and has always been my "offline MMO" so to speak. I have never once had the desire or said to myself while playing skyrim " I wish 50 other live players were in the game with me " . 
  cheyane

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/17/09
Posts: 2549

1/05/14 3:00:51 PM#233

I have nothing against these f2p games. I just feel that their push for you to spend money is terrible in that it makes you lose interest. I played Neverwinter but when I saw how much I would have to grind or spend a lot of money I do not mean a one off for a bag or bank slot but I am talking about the crafting grind I lost interest immediately. I am not going to be dragged into a scheme where I'm constantly forking cash over just to craft some items forget it. I stopped playing and am now back at SWTOR and GW 2. I rather pay a monthly sub and get everything available at reasonable grinds then these insane grinds that leech every enjoyment out of a game. No thank you and it is not because I am a cheapskate that refuses to spend but if you make crafting something I enjoy and every step needs a bought with cash item you're going to lose me buster.

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  xerri

Novice Member

Joined: 12/25/13
Posts: 30

1/05/14 3:02:57 PM#234
Originally posted by thunderC
I agree 100% with whoever wrote this forbes article. Elder Scrolls series has been one of my favorites over the past 10 years and has always been my "offline MMO" so to speak. I have never once had the desire or said to myself while playing skyrim " I wish 50 other live players were in the game with me " . 

 

You'll be able to play solo  or tackle much larger challenges with a group if you like.  In all the other Elder Scrolls games I accomplished what I wanted to  looking for ward to doing MORE with MORE players  to enjoy a LARGER experience.

To many narsistic people that want to live in the past

  Rampaji

Novice Member

Joined: 11/01/13
Posts: 51

1/05/14 4:35:58 PM#235

Normally i dont swear that much.

 

But F oooo OOO K  Forbes opinion and every else including my opinion.

 

If you are having fun with what ever game you play. HAVE FUN! :)

 

If you dont like. play something else, but spare the rest of us with your whining! ;)

I still like you anyway. ;)

 

 

thats my humble opinion.

 

Be good do good

Be the change you want to see in the world.

- Mahatma Gandhi

  laokoko

Advanced Member

Joined: 9/14/09
Posts: 1937

1/05/14 6:00:05 PM#236

I think they over spent, if they actually spent 200million$ already.

They probably can recover the cost.  I just don't know if they can maintain the upkeep.  So they most likely will have to cut staff a few month after release.

  Pigglesworth

Novice Member

Joined: 6/02/13
Posts: 266

1/05/14 6:15:07 PM#237
Originally posted by laokoko

I think they over spent, if they actually spent 200million$ already.

They probably can recover the cost.  I just don't know if they can maintain the upkeep.  So they most likely will have to cut staff a few month after release.

Staff always get cut after release. The staff needed for upkeep, even expansions, is much less than full development. Of course, when this happens, the haters on this board will claim the game is a total failure because they cut staff after launch.

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  WabbaWay

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/21/12
Posts: 104

1/05/14 6:20:34 PM#238
Originally posted by Toxia

http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2014/01/02/predicting-the-biggest-disaster-of-2014-the-elder-scrolls-online/

 

Thoughts?

I just facepalmed myself repeatedly while reading this article. His entire prediction is based on nothing but a tweet from Kotaku (that he can't even prove existed in the first place) and that people doesn't like the ESO brand enough to pay a sub price for it.

 

Not a single word about the gameplay, not one that made it seem like the writer knew what he was talking about anyway. People play a MMO (and all games in general) because it's fun, not because they like the brand (atleast not the majority of gamers).

 

Heh, here I am, defending a game I don't give a damn about - but the article is just that bad.

  Iselin

The Listener

Joined: 3/04/08
Posts: 4151

1/05/14 8:59:17 PM#239

Considering the length of this thread and similar threads at other ESO discusion sites, this bit from the Forbe's Wikipedia page about their website made me laugh:

 

The website also uses a "contributor model" in which a wide network of "contributors" writes and publishes articles directly on the website. Contributors are paid based on traffic to their Forbes.com pages

 

The pointy-headed dweeb who writes that blog thanks you...say, you don't suppose he's being deliberately edgy and controversial, do you? 

 

Starting to feel like you've been had yet?

  Ppiper

Advanced Member

Joined: 2/08/13
Posts: 666

1/05/14 9:04:25 PM#240
Originally posted by Iselin

Considering the length of this thread and similar threads at other ESO discusion sites, this bit from the Forbe's Wikipedia page about their website made me laugh:

 

The website also uses a "contributor model" in which a wide network of "contributors" writes and publishes articles directly on the website. Contributors are paid based on traffic to their Forbes.com pages

 

The pointy-headed dweeb who writes that blog thanks you...say, you don't suppose he's being deliberately edgy and controversial, do you? 

 

Starting to feel like you've been had yet?

pretty fucked up if you ask me.

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