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Elder Scrolls Online

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General Discussion  » 10 million Skyrim fans

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104 posts found
  Lord.Bachus

Elite Member

Joined: 5/14/07
Posts: 8149

I believe in life before death... So dont forget to enjoy it while you still can.

 
OP  10/22/13 4:16:15 AM#1

But for how many is the subscription a reason not to buy the game?

 

I dont see them selling 10 million copies anytime soon... even tough next to the 10 million officially sold copies there are more then the double of that illegal copies roaming the world...

 

The majority of casual gamers still has a problem paying a monthly subscription for online gaming...

 

How many copies do they plan to sell in the first year after release?

Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations)
Currently playing : The Elder Scrolls Online

  goldtoof

Novice Member

Joined: 10/18/13
Posts: 338

10/22/13 4:31:41 AM#2
I would have thought not being able to play it on their xbox would be a bigger factor.
  Kremchek

Novice Member

Joined: 6/25/13
Posts: 50

10/22/13 4:34:12 AM#3
No matter what their projections are...I'm sure the game will make money if it is a good MMO or a good Elder Scrolls game. It will just have different fans.
  Arglebargle

Elite Member

Joined: 6/13/07
Posts: 967

10/22/13 4:36:58 AM#4
My guess is two to three million.  In sales anyway.  Subscriptions is another matter.

If you are holding out for the perfect game, the only game you play will be the waiting one.

  SavageHorizon

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/14/13
Posts: 1445

10/22/13 4:41:40 AM#5
Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

 I dont see them selling 10 million copies anytime soon... 

 

But you had no problem predicting that ArenaNet would sell more copies of GW2 than Blizzard's WOW, right lol.

Think you are underestimating the pull of the IP and it's followers. The last time we saw something like this was with WOW and battle.net fans never having played a MMO before but ended up playing WOW.

Like the game or not, TESO will IMO be the first western MMO that get's close to the numbers of WOW.

And unlike your other GW2 prediction, sub based mmo didn't die with the release of GW2. Many players have no problem paying a sub for a decent MMO. The pull of the IP will have people paying a sub without even thinking about it.

 

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  Scalpless

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Joined: 3/22/07
Posts: 1230

10/22/13 5:06:57 AM#6
I'd wager this being an MMO is the bigger issue for those fans. Most of the people I know are very negative towards MMOs, because they're grindy and have dull quests.
  Lord.Bachus

Elite Member

Joined: 5/14/07
Posts: 8149

I believe in life before death... So dont forget to enjoy it while you still can.

 
OP  10/22/13 5:08:49 AM#7
Originally posted by SavageHorizon
Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

 I dont see them selling 10 million copies anytime soon... 

 

But you had no problem predicting that ArenaNet would sell more copies of GW2 than Blizzard's WOW, right lol.

Think you are underestimating the pull of the IP and it's followers. The last time we saw something like this was with WOW and battle.net fans never having played a MMO before but ended up playing WOW.

Like the game or not, TESO will IMO be the first western MMO that get's close to the numbers of WOW.

And unlike your other GW2 prediction, sub based mmo didn't die with the release of GW2. Many players have no problem paying a sub for a decent MMO. The pull of the IP will have people paying a sub without even thinking about it.

 

Please quote me on that...

 

All i predicted was GW2 being an awesome game, which it still is...  actually i predcited 3 million copies in the first year for GW2, which was pretty accurate...

 

This game is much harder to predict, as there are mnay console players either stuck with the old consoles not fit to play the game, or they dont intend to push the extra money to play online....  As someone else noted, 3 million sales in the first year could also be pretty acurate for this title, i think even more because of the IP... but then there are like 30 million potential customers and only havin 10% buy your product aint that much...

Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations)
Currently playing : The Elder Scrolls Online

  SavageHorizon

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/14/13
Posts: 1445

10/22/13 5:10:01 AM#8
Originally posted by Scalpless
I'd wager this being an MMO is the bigger issue for those fans. Most of the people I know are very negative towards MMOs, because they're grindy and have dull quests.

Right now it maybe but i'll wager that will change once they actually have a chance to play the game. How did you feel playing your first mmo especially if it's your favorite IP.

If fans get to actually try the game i think it will be to much of a pull.

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  Lord.Bachus

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Joined: 5/14/07
Posts: 8149

I believe in life before death... So dont forget to enjoy it while you still can.

 
OP  10/22/13 5:12:30 AM#9
Originally posted by Scalpless
I'd wager this being an MMO is the bigger issue for those fans. Most of the people I know are very negative towards MMOs, because they're grindy and have dull quests.

Actually the game will feel and play like Skyrim 2.....  its first elder scroll and seccondly MMO, my biggest worries are the game not being MMO enough to sattisfy most players in the long term..

 

MMo games having dull quests, is something from the past on top of that, actually even WoW has some very fun questlines these days, and in games like SWTOR, LOTRO and TSW quests are equall to the best single player RPG's. I dont see how TESO would have dull quests...

Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations)
Currently playing : The Elder Scrolls Online

  apocoluster

Advanced Member

Joined: 4/15/07
Posts: 1238

\m/,

10/22/13 5:43:59 AM#10

 Are we just to assume that only sky rim fans will buy Teso.  What about the rest of the us.  Or do you just assume that all mmo players are sky rim fans. I know of atleast one mmo fan who was not impressed by sky rim

My guess is 5 million box sales within the first year but with 80% attrition. Leaving a healthy 1mil subs at te end of its first year and signsofmslow continued growth.  I also

predict asshats coming out of te woodwork screaming the game died or was fail. Not much of a prediction there we know it's going to happen =)

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  Volgore

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10/22/13 6:10:17 AM#11

I'm a huge Skyrim and Oblivion fan and hence WILL NOT buy teso.

My prediction is a huge discount 3-4 month after release what makes them scratch the 2mio sales mark, huge loss of players within 6 month, game dead within 1.5years, f2p when it doesnt even matter anymore.

Zenimax just cannot properly pull something as big as this off and do the IP justice, just like Turbine was never able to carry an IP as big as Lotro or Mythic with WAR.

Seen it way too often to still fall for it...it's always the wrong studio that somehow manages to get the license of a great IP and then delivers a bad game which goes down the drain fast.

Back from the banned...again.

  Oph8

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/24/03
Posts: 166

10/22/13 7:55:06 AM#12
Originally posted by Volgore

I'm a huge Skyrim and Oblivion fan and hence WILL NOT buy teso.

My prediction is a huge discount 3-4 month after release what makes them scratch the 2mio sales mark, huge loss of players within 6 month, game dead within 1.5years, f2p when it doesnt even matter anymore.

Zenimax just cannot properly pull something as big as this off and do the IP justice, just like Turbine was never able to carry an IP as big as Lotro or Mythic with WAR.

Seen it way too often to still fall for it...it's always the wrong studio that somehow manages to get the license of a great IP and then delivers a bad game which goes down the drain fast.

 

I can understand your prediction if the game was bad. But the game isn't bad, it's actually very good. Turbine and LOTRO are different stories. Zenimax can do whatever they want to the lore as they see fit. Also, your information is not accurate, Zenimax is the RIGHT studio. Zenimax OWNS bethesda software and they're using talent from both studios to complete the game.

That's the PC version that is ;-)

 

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  rojo6934

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10/22/13 8:12:55 AM#13
i may be horribly wrong (which i doubt) but im sure TESO will not sell as much as Skyrim did. There is still a huge amount of people playing and replaying Skyrim with mods to just go get a TESO mmo with a subscription that will still limit their options. A lot of people will stick to Skyrim. I hope TESO does well but i cant see them becoming the next big success when Skyrim is still there kicking asses with the modding community. TESO clearly doesnt offer (based on what we know so far) the amount of freedom and options we can get in Skyrim without a sub. We will see when it launches.

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  tasburath

Novice Member

Joined: 6/11/04
Posts: 33

10/22/13 8:22:22 AM#14
Originally posted by SavageHorizon

Like the game or not, TESO will IMO be the first western MMO that get's close to the numbers of WOW.

 

WoW would not reach WoW numbers if it was released today. 

People seem to forget that there were less than a handful of MMOs when WoW was released.  The only real competitor to WoW was EverQuest 2.  EQ2's graphics engine was so horribly bad and required such high end hardware to run decently, it never stood a chance.

The market is so saturated with MMOs now that it will be nearly impossible to replicate WoW's success, short of paying people to play the game.

I know a few people that have played the TESO beta.  If what they are telling me is true, there will be a lot of disappointed people.

  Classicstar

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/02/04
Posts: 2490

10/22/13 8:25:51 AM#15

Steam sold around 3 million copies
Xbox around 7.5million copies
PS3 around 5 million copies
Plus all douche bags who dl it illegally

Thats maybe hardcore fans 4million and potential fans 4 million.

So i predict avarage 3 million max maybe first year same as GW2 unless game is hugely moddeble and copy of solo games(but its not) you could count those 3 million pc gamers go for it but its a very mmoish game so not many true fans will go for TESO.

3 mill max not more.

AC1-AC2 both Darktide server. Lineage2-Darkfall 1. Many ive tried in between. Stopped playing mmorpgs for now fed up with... Played many solo games mainly rpg's.
Fav series Elder scrolls.

  Classicstar

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/02/04
Posts: 2490

10/22/13 8:31:48 AM#16


Originally posted by tasburath

Originally posted by SavageHorizon Like the game or not, TESO will IMO be the first western MMO that get's close to the numbers of WOW.
 

WoW would not reach WoW numbers if it was released today. 

People seem to forget that there were less than a handful of MMOs when WoW was released.  The only real competitor to WoW was EverQuest 2.  EQ2's graphics engine was so horribly bad and required such high end hardware to run decently, it never stood a chance.

The market is so saturated with MMOs now that it will be nearly impossible to replicate WoW's success, short of paying people to play the game.

I know a few people that have played the TESO beta.  If what they are telling me is true, there will be a lot of disappointed people.


Linegae 2 (4million)at the time was competiton not EQ2(200k players).

WoW was released with failor AC2 some old mmo's and asian mmo's like lineage.

It had no competions at all at the time and with huge fanbase like warcraft/diablo it was bound to be a succes.

TESO will be released like if its on other planet so different from 2004 you can't compare it now hundreds of free2play mmo's and many failors even tho it have huge fanbase with skyrim its still very unclear if it have nay succes.

AC1-AC2 both Darktide server. Lineage2-Darkfall 1. Many ive tried in between. Stopped playing mmorpgs for now fed up with... Played many solo games mainly rpg's.
Fav series Elder scrolls.

  deakon

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/07/11
Posts: 588

10/22/13 8:34:47 AM#17

3-4 million in the first few months easily

They already have over 3m signed up for beta (back in august) and the beta is pc only sp once you factor in console owners my prediction might even be pessimistic tbh.

 

How well they keep the players after the first few months will be up to the quality of the game and frequency of content updates, which is anyone's guess at this stage

  Scalpless

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/22/07
Posts: 1230

10/22/13 8:39:30 AM#18
Originally posted by Lord.Bachus
Originally posted by Scalpless
I'd wager this being an MMO is the bigger issue for those fans. Most of the people I know are very negative towards MMOs, because they're grindy and have dull quests.

Actually the game will feel and play like Skyrim 2.....  its first elder scroll and seccondly MMO, my biggest worries are the game not being MMO enough to sattisfy most players in the long term..

That's what the devs keep saying, but I have little reason to trust them. The gameplay I've seen sure didn't look like Skyrim 2.

MMo games having dull quests, is something from the past on top of that, actually even WoW has some very fun questlines these days, and in games like SWTOR, LOTRO and TSW quests are equall to the best single player RPG's. I dont see how TESO would have dull quests...

They're not even close. TOR and TSW have voiced and sometimes well-written quests, but they're still completely linear. This is what a good SP RPG quest looks like:

http://fallout.wikia.com/wiki/Beyond_the_Beef

Quest quality wise, the difference between the best SP RPGs like The Witcher 1/2, Deus Ex or New Vegas and the best MMOs is enormous. Of course, Skyrim's fans may be a bit more tolerant of bad quests, because Skyrim's quests are mostly a bit dull and linear, too.

  Classicstar

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/02/04
Posts: 2490

10/22/13 8:41:57 AM#19


Originally posted by Volgore
I'm a huge Skyrim and Oblivion fan and hence WILL NOT buy teso.

My prediction is a huge discount 3-4 month after release what makes them scratch the 2mio sales mark, huge loss of players within 6 month, game dead within 1.5years, f2p when it doesnt even matter anymore.

Zenimax just cannot properly pull something as big as this off and do the IP justice, just like Turbine was never able to carry an IP as big as Lotro or Mythic with WAR.

Seen it way too often to still fall for it...it's always the wrong studio that somehow manages to get the license of a great IP and then delivers a bad game which goes down the drain fast.


Zenimax is almost bethesda its already for a very longtime mother company and betehsda its independed when it comes to making the elderscroll mmo game.

I very doub that zenimax dont use and listend to bethesda if its about TESO.

Its only that bethesda and zenimax want a money grab cash in on succes of skyrim and that blind them from follow formula solo games so it will fail as mmo but not becouse of zenimax just becouse they make same mistake as all before try beat WoW and use this as a cashcow.

They will never reach the succes of Skyrim that game is a league on its own it will never be passed by this TESO abomination.

You can't btw not predict on BETA sign ups there freeloaders when the beta is over they go to next beta most dont even test they just wanne free ride.

AC1-AC2 both Darktide server. Lineage2-Darkfall 1. Many ive tried in between. Stopped playing mmorpgs for now fed up with... Played many solo games mainly rpg's.
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  goldtoof

Novice Member

Joined: 10/18/13
Posts: 338

10/22/13 8:47:44 AM#20
Err zenimax own

Arkane & ID amongst others, you may have heard of some of their games like dishonoured & quake.
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