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General Discussion  » How many sales one month after release?

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34 posts found
  Iselin

The Listener

Joined: 3/04/08
Posts: 4026

 
OP  9/26/13 2:35:45 PM#21
Originally posted by keithian
I think without a doubt it will be at least 3M. The question is how much more and how much will a subscription deter console users, especially for those that don't want to pay and Xbox Gold Fee with another subscription fee on top of that...unless Microsoft changes its tune with the XBOX.

Considering the current champ for quick MMO sales is GW2 and it took them 1 year to hit 3 million, selling that many within 1 month after release would be an astounding figure.

Still nothing compared to the 15+ Mil GTA V has sold in its first week, but it would be quite an accomplishment...and yes, I think it will do that.

Keeping with the "meaning of life" theme someone posted above, my guess is 4,242,424.2 

  SoMuchMass

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/13
Posts: 587

9/26/13 2:39:49 PM#22
If it is released on both consoles as the same time as PC they easily 3+ million.
  SoMuchMass

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/13
Posts: 587

9/26/13 2:41:50 PM#23
Originally posted by Iselin
Originally posted by keithian
I think without a doubt it will be at least 3M. The question is how much more and how much will a subscription deter console users, especially for those that don't want to pay and Xbox Gold Fee with another subscription fee on top of that...unless Microsoft changes its tune with the XBOX.

Considering the current champ for quick MMO sales is GW2 and it took them 1 year to hit 3 million, selling that many within 1 month after release would be an astounding figure.

Still nothing compared to the 15+ Mil GTA V has sold in its first week, but it would be quite an accomplishment...and yes, I think it will do that.

Keeping with the "meaning of life" theme someone posted above, my guess is 4,242,424.2 

MoP sold 2.7 million within its first week.  Cataclysm sold 3.3 million in 24 hours, and 5 million in the first month.  So 3+ million is easily possibly especially with console sales and an IP like TES.

  SnarlingWolf

Novice Member

Joined: 6/23/09
Posts: 2728

9/26/13 2:48:44 PM#24

I'd say less than 500k. Maybe, just maybe the 500k to 1 million range.

 

I think people are taking their feelings about the game and sticking it on the world as a whole. Yes Skyrim was a successful game, but it is apples to oranges. There are a lot of people who love that style of game, but hate the concept of an MMO or P2P.

 

 

 

  SnarlingWolf

Novice Member

Joined: 6/23/09
Posts: 2728

9/26/13 2:51:56 PM#25
Originally posted by SoMuchMass
Originally posted by Iselin
Originally posted by keithian
I think without a doubt it will be at least 3M. The question is how much more and how much will a subscription deter console users, especially for those that don't want to pay and Xbox Gold Fee with another subscription fee on top of that...unless Microsoft changes its tune with the XBOX.

Considering the current champ for quick MMO sales is GW2 and it took them 1 year to hit 3 million, selling that many within 1 month after release would be an astounding figure.

Still nothing compared to the 15+ Mil GTA V has sold in its first week, but it would be quite an accomplishment...and yes, I think it will do that.

Keeping with the "meaning of life" theme someone posted above, my guess is 4,242,424.2 

MoP sold 2.7 million within its first week.  Cataclysm sold 3.3 million in 24 hours, and 5 million in the first month.  So 3+ million is easily possibly especially with console sales and an IP like TES.

You are using an MMO which was already running and had like 10+ million users as an example. That doesn't compare at all to a new launch game. It should actually show you how tough it can be to sell copies if you have 10 million users and say "here is an expansion to the game you're currently playing" and only half of them have bought a copy in the first month.

  SoMuchMass

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/13
Posts: 587

9/26/13 2:54:44 PM#26
Originally posted by SnarlingWolf
Originally posted by SoMuchMass
Originally posted by Iselin
Originally posted by keithian
I think without a doubt it will be at least 3M. The question is how much more and how much will a subscription deter console users, especially for those that don't want to pay and Xbox Gold Fee with another subscription fee on top of that...unless Microsoft changes its tune with the XBOX.

Considering the current champ for quick MMO sales is GW2 and it took them 1 year to hit 3 million, selling that many within 1 month after release would be an astounding figure.

Still nothing compared to the 15+ Mil GTA V has sold in its first week, but it would be quite an accomplishment...and yes, I think it will do that.

Keeping with the "meaning of life" theme someone posted above, my guess is 4,242,424.2 

MoP sold 2.7 million within its first week.  Cataclysm sold 3.3 million in 24 hours, and 5 million in the first month.  So 3+ million is easily possibly especially with console sales and an IP like TES.

You are using an MMO which was already running and had like 10+ million users as an example. That doesn't compare at all to a new launch game. It should actually show you how tough it can be to sell copies if you have 10 million users and say "here is an expansion to the game you're currently playing" and only half of them have bought a copy in the first month.

Players in China don't buy the game which accounts for the discrepancy, they get the client for free.  SWTOR sold 2 million in its first month, I don't see why ESO can't get 3 million especially with the hype around it.  See their Facebook likes?  Even SWTOR's Facebook likes at launch dwarfs what ESO has.

  Muke

Elite Member

Joined: 1/04/07
Posts: 1627

9/26/13 2:57:07 PM#27
500 billion.

"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"

  Rusque

Elite Member

Joined: 6/08/10
Posts: 1851

9/26/13 2:58:29 PM#28
Originally posted by Iselin
Originally posted by keithian
I think without a doubt it will be at least 3M. The question is how much more and how much will a subscription deter console users, especially for those that don't want to pay and Xbox Gold Fee with another subscription fee on top of that...unless Microsoft changes its tune with the XBOX.

Considering the current champ for quick MMO sales is GW2 and it took them 1 year to hit 3 million, selling that many within 1 month after release would be an astounding figure.

Still nothing compared to the 15+ Mil GTA V has sold in its first week, but it would be quite an accomplishment...and yes, I think it will do that.

Keeping with the "meaning of life" theme someone posted above, my guess is 4,242,424.2 

 

That's because total PC Skyrim sales were pathetic - only reached 1.54 million sales.

Skyrim sold 3.5 million copies in the first 48 hours. http://www.statisticbrain.com/skyrim-the-elder-scrolls-v-statistics/

 

The sub will be what turns people off most likely, but will it cause TESO to take 1 year to hit 3 million?

 

 

  Deivos

Novice Member

Joined: 10/14/04
Posts: 1703

Iarð skal rifna, ok upphiminn.

9/26/13 2:58:40 PM#29
Originally posted by moguy2

75 billion. Also while we are guessing dumb stuff, who will the next president be. Will we cure cancer by 2050? And can we make an inkless pen that can be purchased for under 34 cents.

/facepalm

The next president will BE cancer!

 

And the vice president will murder them by curing cancer!

 

EDIT: Also wanted to note that Rusque's commentary is off as PC sales can not be properly evaluated. Steam and other digital distributors do not disclose their sales generally and consequently make a good chunk of the total consumer base on the PC go unrecorded.

 

Given the distribution model rests Skyrim on Steam for the PC, that makes it difficult to track anything other that retail sales. Unless that site has also been tracking the total amount of people to have launched Skyrim via Steam as well.

 

Now, I know there's plenty of repeat downloads, but look at this page a moment.

http://www.nexusmods.com/

On that site it lists 347.19 million downloads for the mods to Skyrim.

Even if each user downloaded 200 mods, that's around 1.7million users for Skyrim on the Nexus alone.

As the size of an explosion increases, the number of social situations it is incapable of solving approaches zero. - Vaarsuvius

  SoMuchMass

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/13
Posts: 587

9/26/13 3:03:06 PM#30

SWTOR sold 2 million in its first month.  They were PC only.  They had 500k Facebook likes at launch.

ESO will be PC + Consoles.  They already have 1.4 million Facebook likes.

I know Facebook likes are not the judge of sales, but it is a good indicator of popularity. 

Do I think ESO will beat SWTOR/GW2 in terms of first month sales?  Yes. Why? IP and Consoles.

  Homitu

Apprentice Member

Joined: 10/01/09
Posts: 2045

9/26/13 3:27:14 PM#31

Most new big name MMOs with big IPs that have come out over the last few years - like SWTOR, GW2, FFXIV - effortlessly generated 1-2 million buyers based on pre-release interest alone.  Whether the numbers go up or down from there depends on how good the game actually turns out to be.  

TES has a similarly successful IP, so I'd expect the numbers to be somewhere in the same realm.  One thing that favors the game is that I think there's a fair bit of overlap between TES players and MMO gamers.  We all know how well Skyrim did.  Now certainly, all 10 million Skyrim players aren't also MMO gamers; and even some portion of those who are won't necessarily play the game.  Then, of course, there are also MMO gamers who haven't ever played any TES games who will pick up the game to check it out.  All of this factored in, I expect the game to sell somewhere in the GW2 3-4 million range after one year.  After just one month, I'll broadly guess between 1.5 and 2.5 million.  

I personally haven't followed the game much since it was announced though, so I'm not factoring in how the game actually looks, which of course completely dictates player retention and growth after release. 

  Iselin

The Listener

Joined: 3/04/08
Posts: 4026

 
OP  9/26/13 4:40:03 PM#32
Originally posted by Homitu

Most new big name MMOs with big IPs that have come out over the last few years - like SWTOR, GW2, FFXIV - effortlessly generated 1-2 million buyers based on pre-release interest alone.  Whether the numbers go up or down from there depends on how good the game actually turns out to be.  

TES has a similarly successful IP, so I'd expect the numbers to be somewhere in the same realm.  One thing that favors the game is that I think there's a fair bit of overlap between TES players and MMO gamers.  We all know how well Skyrim did.  Now certainly, all 10 million Skyrim players aren't also MMO gamers; and even some portion of those who are won't necessarily play the game.  Then, of course, there are also MMO gamers who haven't ever played any TES games who will pick up the game to check it out.  All of this factored in, I expect the game to sell somewhere in the GW2 3-4 million range after one year.  After just one month, I'll broadly guess between 1.5 and 2.5 million.  

I personally haven't followed the game much since it was announced though, so I'm not factoring in how the game actually looks, which of course completely dictates player retention and growth after release. 

Good analysis.

Another factor that will influence those initial sales that those of us who have been following the game closely have seen is their current marketing campaign that tries to link the MMO to Skyrim as much as possible. It's a relatively late change of spin over the past 3 or 4 months.

The MMO development itself has changed very little since the original concept: it's still realm-locked, 3 faction RvR at its core but they souped up the first person view, added the Skyrim-style compass, copied the Skyrim visual style for menus and more importantly they are emphasizing the solo friendly and casual grouping PVE aspects in their promotion.

In other words, for market targeting, they are going after the single player TES players as opposed to the dedicated MMOer. That's not a value judgement on the merits of ESO as an MMO - as I said, the MMO development is going on exactly as before barely changed... and the hard-core, uncompromising TES fans and MMOers alike have all kinds of issues with their own pet aspects that aren't being done justice in their opinion. But that's besides the point since those 2 groups are insignificant, mostly PC minorities everywhere except here and other enthusiast forums.

It's a smart marketing campaign that's trying to cash in on the very healthy Skyrim numbers. Announcing a simultaneous release on the PS4 and XB1 is very much in keeping with that since the majority of their base is console players. And you can bet that the overwhelming majority of them hasn't even heard of mmorpg.com and doesn't hang in reddit.

  Tibbz

Advanced Member

Joined: 7/05/07
Posts: 621

"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in a group"

9/26/13 5:25:04 PM#33

hmmm

 

  baphamet

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/05/06
Posts: 2660

110100100

9/26/13 8:45:28 PM#34


Originally posted by Homitu
Most new big name MMOs with big IPs that have come out over the last few years - like SWTOR, GW2, FFXIV - effortlessly generated 1-2 million buyers based on pre-release interest alone.  Whether the numbers go up or down from there depends on how good the game actually turns out to be.  

TES has a similarly successful IP, so I'd expect the numbers to be somewhere in the same realm.  One thing that favors the game is that I think there's a fair bit of overlap between TES players and MMO gamers.  We all know how well Skyrim did.  Now certainly, all 10 million Skyrim players aren't also MMO gamers; and even some portion of those who are won't necessarily play the game.  Then, of course, there are also MMO gamers who haven't ever played any TES games who will pick up the game to check it out.  All of this factored in, I expect the game to sell somewhere in the GW2 3-4 million range after one year.  After just one month, I'll broadly guess between 1.5 and 2.5 million.  

I personally haven't followed the game much since it was announced though, so I'm not factoring in how the game actually looks, which of course completely dictates player retention and growth after release. 


just to add to this, another thing you have to consider is that not only is ES an extremely popular video game IP being made into an MMO but its also launching on both the newer consoles as well as PC.

that is huge. we really don't know how an MMO with a popular IP will do on the consoles, especially considering how popular skyrim is among console gamers.

its one thing to have a console IP (KOTOR) ported to an MMO that launches on PC only (SWTOR). its another thing entirely to have a popular console IP ported to an MMO and released on the consoles and PC.

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