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General Discussion  » How many sales one month after release?

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34 posts found
  Iselin

The Listener

Joined: 3/04/08
Posts: 3524

 
OP  9/25/13 4:17:42 PM#1

Let's see how good mmorpg.com members are at guessing how ESO will do in the first month.

 

Using everything you know about this game and the MMO market in general... what's your guess of total units they sell including pre-orders and the first month after release ( Total PC, MAC, PS4 and XB1 sales.)

 

Post your guess if you want to win the bragging rights 

How many units will ESO have sold 1 month after release?

Less than 500,000
500 K to 1 Mil
1 - 1.5 Mil
1.5 - 3 Mil
More than 3 Mil
(login to vote)
  Rusque

Elite Member

Joined: 6/08/10
Posts: 1480

9/25/13 4:24:45 PM#2

Unless they run into production issues, >3 million.

Skyrim sold something like 10 million copies properly quick - it's a very popular franchise and if they launch it for ps4 and X1 after they launch console gamers will grab it up since launch releases are fairly anemic in the game department (in terms of quantity).

  bcbully

Elite Member

Joined: 3/03/12
Posts: 6479

9/25/13 4:27:51 PM#3

20-30 million

 

edit - 10-15

  Yamota

Hard Core Member

Joined: 10/05/03
Posts: 6384

There's a beast within every man that stirs when you put a sword in his hand

9/25/13 4:29:40 PM#4
Around 1 million, peaks at 1.5 million after 2-3 months. Will likely drop to about 500k active subs after about 6 months and then F2P about 1 year after release.

  moguy2

Apprentice Member

Joined: 9/20/12
Posts: 351

Wish I had something positive to say =(

9/25/13 4:32:46 PM#5

75 billion. Also while we are guessing dumb stuff, who will the next president be. Will we cure cancer by 2050? And can we make an inkless pen that can be purchased for under 34 cents.

/facepalm

  Tablix

Novice Member

Joined: 12/03/10
Posts: 22

9/25/13 4:38:44 PM#6

WAY OVER any of the above. 

 

As an example of why I think this, Skyrim shipped 5m copies to retailers for launch, that's NOT including digital purchases.  Then consider the MMORPG market is added to the existing fanbase of the ES fanbase.  Then add the multi-platform release to X-Box and PS customers that have never seen ES games before.

 

I would think 15m box sales in the first 6 months would not be out of the question, with maybe 20% subscribing the duration of that first 6 months.

 

There will be trolls, but my opinion was asked and this is it.

 

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 9953

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

9/25/13 4:39:10 PM#7


Originally posted by Yamota
Around 1 million, peaks at 1.5 million after 2-3 months. Will likely drop to about 500k active subs after about 6 months and then F2P about 1 year after release.


I'm going to say 2,575,337 sales in the first month. There will be an announcement of the sales and the number of registered users.

Not sure about the other stuff. 500k subscribers sounds about right but not sure when it'll happen. Ditto for F2P. :-)

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  DeniZg

Elite Member

Joined: 1/29/12
Posts: 438

9/25/13 4:50:03 PM#8

Skyrim sold over 10 mil. copies, where PC sales were 1.5 million. BUT, Skyirm was B2P.

They will most likely push over 3 million on all platforms, but I don't see them getting much more due to their business model (P2P).

  Valgar1

Novice Member

Joined: 8/25/07
Posts: 332

9/25/13 4:56:20 PM#9
28 million!

  Tablix

Novice Member

Joined: 12/03/10
Posts: 22

9/25/13 4:57:32 PM#10
Originally posted by DeniZg

Skyrim sold over 10 mil. copies, where PC sales were 1.5 million. BUT, Skyirm was B2P.

They will most likely push over 3 million on all platforms, but I don't see them getting much more due to their business model (P2P).

Blizzard STILL does more than this in subscribers with a game nearly a decade old, AND they have charged for expansions along the way.   I think you are one of those people that expects a free lunch.  Look at the budget for the game, then consider they want a 200% profit margin AFTER running costs, then you get an idea of how many they expect to make in the first 12 months.

 

Stop being a gamer and think like a business person, they are smarter than you give them credit, heck you still think F2P means free :D

 

  Agnostic42

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/19/04
Posts: 318

9/25/13 4:59:01 PM#11

42

 

  IridescentOrk

Novice Member

Joined: 5/27/13
Posts: 160

9/25/13 5:01:43 PM#12
around 5 mil

gameplay > graphics

  Karahandras

Advanced Member

Joined: 8/11/08
Posts: 1615

All it takes for evil to succeed is for the good to stand by and do nothing

9/25/13 5:06:45 PM#13
Originally posted by Yamota
Around 1 million, peaks at 1.5 million after 2-3 months. Will likely drop to about 500k active subs after about 6 months and then F2P about 1 year after release.

I think this seems a pretty accurate guess atm, could sell more but drop faster too(ala swtor).  Could do better than this but i think that'll depend upon how good their marketing is more than how the actual game is.

  laserit

Elite Member

Joined: 3/24/10
Posts: 1281

Confusius say: Man who go to bed with itchy bum wake up with stinky finger

9/25/13 5:17:48 PM#14
Originally posted by Karahandras
Originally posted by Yamota
Around 1 million, peaks at 1.5 million after 2-3 months. Will likely drop to about 500k active subs after about 6 months and then F2P about 1 year after release.

I think this seems a pretty accurate guess atm, could sell more but drop faster too(ala swtor).  Could do better than this but i think that'll depend upon how good their marketing is more than how the actual game is.

I think that's way low. There is going to be a lot of new PS4's and Xbox 1's out there and a new Elder scroll's game is something many will be salivating over.

 

5 million + in sales the first month is what I would guess.

 

Retention is a totally different story.

Zenimax kicked my dog

  MMOredfalcon

Hard Core Member

Joined: 9/18/13
Posts: 67

9/25/13 5:51:32 PM#15
Originally posted by moguy2

75 billion. Also while we are guessing dumb stuff, who will the next president be. Will we cure cancer by 2050? And can we make an inkless pen that can be purchased for under 34 cents.

/facepalm

I'd say one copy of this game for every household with a computer in the world...

Next president will be Oprah

We'll cure cancer by 2050 but some new disease will take its place as uncurable

And no pens for under 34 cents.

 

  Ikisis

Novice Member

Joined: 1/23/09
Posts: 287

9/25/13 5:57:37 PM#16
I think box sales will do good on the IP alone, but longevity of the game will probably call to 300k or less after the first month.


Full Loot PvP http://lifeisfeudal.com/ Next Generation Sandbox MMORPG

  baphamet

Elite Member

Joined: 7/05/06
Posts: 2579

110100100

9/25/13 10:46:59 PM#17

i would say closer to 5 million at least across all platforms. anyone who picked anything other than over 3 million is kidding themselves.

the question should be, how many people will be left playing after one year?

  baphamet

Elite Member

Joined: 7/05/06
Posts: 2579

110100100

9/25/13 10:51:30 PM#18


Originally posted by Karahandras

Originally posted by Yamota Around 1 million, peaks at 1.5 million after 2-3 months. Will likely drop to about 500k active subs after about 6 months and then F2P about 1 year after release.
I think this seems a pretty accurate guess atm, could sell more but drop faster too(ala swtor).  Could do better than this but i think that'll depend upon how good their marketing is more than how the actual game is.

its ES and on the consoles as well. if this was PC only i think that would be a fair guess, even still a bit low probably.

ES is a gigantic video game IP, especially on the consoles. anything less than 3 million would be a shock i would think.


  baphamet

Elite Member

Joined: 7/05/06
Posts: 2579

110100100

9/25/13 10:55:35 PM#19


Originally posted by Ikisis
I think box sales will do good on the IP alone, but longevity of the game will probably call to 300k or less after the first month.

that wont happen, not in one month. that didn't even happen to SWTOR in one month and this game will likely have at least twice the amount of players and is on the consoles too.

no way no how does this happen unless they release a broken game, literally broken and unplayable i mean.

  keithian

Elite Member

Joined: 5/20/06
Posts: 2822

9/26/13 2:44:52 AM#20
I think without a doubt it will be at least 3M. The question is how much more and how much will a subscription deter console users, especially for those that don't want to pay and Xbox Gold Fee with another subscription fee on top of that...unless Microsoft changes its tune with the XBOX.

There Is Always Hope!

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