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Guild Wars 2

Guild Wars 2 

General Discussion  » The population appears to be growing still.

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424 posts found
  SoMuchMass

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/13
Posts: 587

8/14/13 11:58:17 AM#41

"Full" means nothing.  ANET could set 300 concurrent players = Full and call it a day.  I didn't believe it when SWTOR and Rift did it, I don't believe it when WoW does it.

I play on a server that is labeled "Medium" in WoW and I barely see any 90s on either faction.  I played on a "Very High" server in SWTOR and the population was dead.  I have characters on a "High" server in GW2 and rarely see anyone in the main city (HoD).

Look at the sales report, NCSoft released today, based on that GW2 is dropping steadily.  In fact, today's Q2 '13 report showed a 20%+ drop in sales from the previous quarter. And 80% drop in sales from the quarter before that.  

The game is not gaining people as much as it is losing, which means a net loss.  It isn't 5 or 10% its 20%+.  The game is declining not growing like the devs want you to believe.

When fans of the game try to tell people the game is not dying, you know there is a problem.

  Volkon

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/10
Posts: 3813

Facts do not require fiction for balance.

 
OP  8/14/13 12:13:32 PM#42
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

"Full" means nothing.  ANET could set 300 concurrent players = Full and call it a day.  I didn't believe it when SWTOR and Rift did it, I don't believe it when WoW does it.

I play on a server that is labeled "Medium" in WoW and I barely see any 90s on either faction.  I played on a "Very High" server in SWTOR and the population was dead.  I have characters on a "High" server in GW2 and rarely see anyone in the main city (HoD).

Look at the sales report, NCSoft released today, based on that GW2 is dropping steadily.  In fact, today's Q2 '13 report showed a 20%+ drop in sales from the previous quarter. And 80% drop in sales from the quarter before that.  

The game is not gaining people as much as it is losing, which means a net loss.  It isn't 5 or 10% its 20%+.  The game is declining not growing like the devs want you to believe.

When fans of the game try to tell people the game is not dying, you know there is a problem.

 

Interesting that you couldn't even name the "main city" in GW2, but that's another story. I found the earnings report you were mentioning, thanks for that, I didn't know it was out. This statement stands out: "Revenues grew on the back of historical high L1 and stable GW2". 

 

Now, it's already been demonstrated that we can see the numbers growing in the game. Server cap increases, servers continuing to fill after increase, etc., so no, the game is not declining based on actual evidence.

Oderint, dum metuant.

  SoMuchMass

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/13
Posts: 587

8/14/13 12:21:04 PM#43
Originally posted by Volkon
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

"Full" means nothing.  ANET could set 300 concurrent players = Full and call it a day.  I didn't believe it when SWTOR and Rift did it, I don't believe it when WoW does it.

I play on a server that is labeled "Medium" in WoW and I barely see any 90s on either faction.  I played on a "Very High" server in SWTOR and the population was dead.  I have characters on a "High" server in GW2 and rarely see anyone in the main city (HoD).

Look at the sales report, NCSoft released today, based on that GW2 is dropping steadily.  In fact, today's Q2 '13 report showed a 20%+ drop in sales from the previous quarter. And 80% drop in sales from the quarter before that.  

The game is not gaining people as much as it is losing, which means a net loss.  It isn't 5 or 10% its 20%+.  The game is declining not growing like the devs want you to believe.

When fans of the game try to tell people the game is not dying, you know there is a problem.

 

Interesting that you couldn't even name the "main city" in GW2, but that's another story. I found the earnings report you were mentioning, thanks for that, I didn't know it was out. This statement stands out: "Revenues grew on the back of historical high L1 and stable GW2". 

 

Now, it's already been demonstrated that we can see the numbers growing in the game. Server cap increases, servers continuing to fill after increase, etc., so no, the game is not declining based on actual evidence.

Lion's Arch.  But it doesn't matter what city it is the point remains.

I am looking at the numbers and not PR speak that says "stable".  You can see a 20% drop from the previous quarter and a 80% drop from the quarter before that.  Actual sales numbers.  Lineage 1 grew significantly from the previous quarter and is pretty much carring NCSoft on its back.

Nothing has been "demonstrated".  Servers = full means nothing.  Developers manipulate that data and can present it how they please.  It happens with all MMO developers.  I would like to see actual "evidence" like the sales report and not dev speak.

 

 

  Shadanwolf

Apprentice Member

Joined: 6/13/10
Posts: 1903

8/14/13 12:36:54 PM#44

Xfire data does not show growth.

http://www.xfire.com/games/gw2

  Volkon

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/10
Posts: 3813

Facts do not require fiction for balance.

 
OP  8/14/13 12:44:58 PM#45
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

Lion's Arch.  But it doesn't matter what city it is the point remains.

I am looking at the numbers and not PR speak that says "stable".  You can see a 20% drop from the previous quarter and a 80% drop from the quarter before that.  Actual sales numbers.  Lineage 1 grew significantly from the previous quarter and is pretty much carring NCSoft on its back.

Nothing has been "demonstrated".  Servers = full means nothing.  Developers manipulate that data and can present it how they please.  It happens with all MMO developers.  I would like to see actual "evidence" like the sales report and not dev speak.

 

 

 

Yes, two quarters ago shows the majority of release sales, then last quarter and this quarter show continued sales at numbers not bad at all being a year out. Fact is... they're still selling. Now, the only way that those numbers translate to a loss of players is if more people are quitting the game then buying it. If I sell 200K copies two quarters ago and 150K last quarter and over those two quarters 100K players stop playing, the number of players still went up even though total sales per quarter have decreased a bit. Simple math. 

 

Now, your argument that the server cap numbers don't matter and can be manipulated doesn't hold water. As a matter of fact, the numbers DO matter and are watched pretty closely by the WvW community as a whole. We've seen at least three increases in the server caps over time while not seeing a decrease. The last increase put the highest populated servers at Very High, and this allowed guilds to transfer to these servers for WvW purposes. The lowest servers were down to medium. Over time, all the server numbers kept gradually drifting up to the point we are now, with four or five once again full and most back to very high. This shows a steady increase in players across all servers. It's really simple observation.

 

Edit: XFire shows apparently steady numbers across XFire users apparently, which would be quite the minority. Does XFire have anything to offer for an MMO player? I heard it was some shooter type thing.

Oderint, dum metuant.

  GeezerGamer

Elite Member

Joined: 4/03/12
Posts: 5247

8/14/13 12:53:10 PM#46
Originally posted by Volkon
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

"Full" means nothing.  ANET could set 300 concurrent players = Full and call it a day.  I didn't believe it when SWTOR and Rift did it, I don't believe it when WoW does it.

I play on a server that is labeled "Medium" in WoW and I barely see any 90s on either faction.  I played on a "Very High" server in SWTOR and the population was dead.  I have characters on a "High" server in GW2 and rarely see anyone in the main city (HoD).

Look at the sales report, NCSoft released today, based on that GW2 is dropping steadily.  In fact, today's Q2 '13 report showed a 20%+ drop in sales from the previous quarter. And 80% drop in sales from the quarter before that.  

The game is not gaining people as much as it is losing, which means a net loss.  It isn't 5 or 10% its 20%+.  The game is declining not growing like the devs want you to believe.

When fans of the game try to tell people the game is not dying, you know there is a problem.

 

Interesting that you couldn't even name the "main city" in GW2, but that's another story. I found the earnings report you were mentioning, thanks for that, I didn't know it was out. This statement stands out: "Revenues grew on the back of historical high L1 and stable GW2". 

 

Now, it's already been demonstrated that we can see the numbers growing in the game. Server cap increases, servers continuing to fill after increase, etc., so no, the game is not declining based on actual evidence.

There is a reason that statement stands out. It accomplished exactly what it was supposed to, but the sales figures are down from the previous quarters. Fewer people are buying the game. That means that the fluctuations in server populations are more from the existing casual players who come and go in cycles. We are talking about a game with an active player base in the hundreds of thousands.  Could even possibly be millions for all I know, and it might be. No, the game is far from dead. It's still quite lively. But sales are declining (Fact), so the game isn't growing or if it is, that growth is in decline.

Saying you demonstrated that you can see the numbers growing in the game is about as accurate as the people who say everyone I know quit so the game is dying. There is no actual evidence either way.

It's the sad state of the genre. The next big title has as many threads discussing issues with it's business model than issues with the game itself.

  botrytis

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/04/05
Posts: 2565

8/14/13 1:02:12 PM#47
Originally posted by SoMuchMass
Originally posted by Volkon
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

"Full" means nothing.  ANET could set 300 concurrent players = Full and call it a day.  I didn't believe it when SWTOR and Rift did it, I don't believe it when WoW does it.

I play on a server that is labeled "Medium" in WoW and I barely see any 90s on either faction.  I played on a "Very High" server in SWTOR and the population was dead.  I have characters on a "High" server in GW2 and rarely see anyone in the main city (HoD).

Look at the sales report, NCSoft released today, based on that GW2 is dropping steadily.  In fact, today's Q2 '13 report showed a 20%+ drop in sales from the previous quarter. And 80% drop in sales from the quarter before that.  

The game is not gaining people as much as it is losing, which means a net loss.  It isn't 5 or 10% its 20%+.  The game is declining not growing like the devs want you to believe.

When fans of the game try to tell people the game is not dying, you know there is a problem.

 

Interesting that you couldn't even name the "main city" in GW2, but that's another story. I found the earnings report you were mentioning, thanks for that, I didn't know it was out. This statement stands out: "Revenues grew on the back of historical high L1 and stable GW2". 

 

Now, it's already been demonstrated that we can see the numbers growing in the game. Server cap increases, servers continuing to fill after increase, etc., so no, the game is not declining based on actual evidence.

Lion's Arch.  But it doesn't matter what city it is the point remains.

I am looking at the numbers and not PR speak that says "stable".  You can see a 20% drop from the previous quarter and a 80% drop from the quarter before that.  Actual sales numbers.  Lineage 1 grew significantly from the previous quarter and is pretty much carring NCSoft on its back.

Nothing has been "demonstrated".  Servers = full means nothing.  Developers manipulate that data and can present it how they please.  It happens with all MMO developers.  I would like to see actual "evidence" like the sales report and not dev speak.

 

 

LOL - there are several main cities in GW2, not just one.

 

Servers = FULL means something, not nothing.  They have constantly stated that they increased server capacity not decreased.  In GW1 they have decreased server capacity as they don't need it anymore and they stated that.

"In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  SoMuchMass

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/13
Posts: 587

8/14/13 1:10:23 PM#48
Originally posted by Volkon
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

Lion's Arch.  But it doesn't matter what city it is the point remains.

I am looking at the numbers and not PR speak that says "stable".  You can see a 20% drop from the previous quarter and a 80% drop from the quarter before that.  Actual sales numbers.  Lineage 1 grew significantly from the previous quarter and is pretty much carring NCSoft on its back.

Nothing has been "demonstrated".  Servers = full means nothing.  Developers manipulate that data and can present it how they please.  It happens with all MMO developers.  I would like to see actual "evidence" like the sales report and not dev speak.

 

 

 

Yes, two quarters ago shows the majority of release sales, then last quarter and this quarter show continued sales at numbers not bad at all being a year out. Fact is... they're still selling. Now, the only way that those numbers translate to a loss of players is if more people are quitting the game then buying it. If I sell 200K copies two quarters ago and 150K last quarter and over those two quarters 100K players stop playing, the number of players still went up even though total sales per quarter have decreased a bit. Simple math. 

 

 

Gaffney the lead guy behind WildStar and founder of Turbine always says good MMOs lose 5% to 10% of their player base every month.  Mediocre and bad ones lose more than that a month.  So unless the game is selling as much as it did previous it is dropping steadlily.

Let us say GW2 is actually a "good" MMO.  It would have lost 60% of its players in a year period.  Now looks at sales:

Q4 '12 = 51,290

Q1 '13 = 14,376

Q2 '13 = 11,459

Total = 77,125 

This is sales figures in Korean Won but to make it simple just treat this as sales.  So ANet lost 20% from Q1 '13 to Q2 '13.  And lost 72% from Q4 '12 to Q1 '13.  If we apply the 5% churn to GW2 a month it lost 60% of its play base (best case scenario but isn't making up for that loss with increased sales.

 

 

 

 

  SoMuchMass

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/13
Posts: 587

8/14/13 1:13:26 PM#49
Originally posted by botrytis
Originally posted by SoMuchMass
Originally posted by Volkon
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

"Full" means nothing.  ANET could set 300 concurrent players = Full and call it a day.  I didn't believe it when SWTOR and Rift did it, I don't believe it when WoW does it.

I play on a server that is labeled "Medium" in WoW and I barely see any 90s on either faction.  I played on a "Very High" server in SWTOR and the population was dead.  I have characters on a "High" server in GW2 and rarely see anyone in the main city (HoD).

Look at the sales report, NCSoft released today, based on that GW2 is dropping steadily.  In fact, today's Q2 '13 report showed a 20%+ drop in sales from the previous quarter. And 80% drop in sales from the quarter before that.  

The game is not gaining people as much as it is losing, which means a net loss.  It isn't 5 or 10% its 20%+.  The game is declining not growing like the devs want you to believe.

When fans of the game try to tell people the game is not dying, you know there is a problem.

 

Interesting that you couldn't even name the "main city" in GW2, but that's another story. I found the earnings report you were mentioning, thanks for that, I didn't know it was out. This statement stands out: "Revenues grew on the back of historical high L1 and stable GW2". 

 

Now, it's already been demonstrated that we can see the numbers growing in the game. Server cap increases, servers continuing to fill after increase, etc., so no, the game is not declining based on actual evidence.

Lion's Arch.  But it doesn't matter what city it is the point remains.

I am looking at the numbers and not PR speak that says "stable".  You can see a 20% drop from the previous quarter and a 80% drop from the quarter before that.  Actual sales numbers.  Lineage 1 grew significantly from the previous quarter and is pretty much carring NCSoft on its back.

Nothing has been "demonstrated".  Servers = full means nothing.  Developers manipulate that data and can present it how they please.  It happens with all MMO developers.  I would like to see actual "evidence" like the sales report and not dev speak.

 

 

LOL - there are several main cities in GW2, not just one.

 

It doesn't matter what main city it is, the point remains.

  thinktank001

Advanced Member

Joined: 12/13/08
Posts: 1954

8/14/13 1:13:55 PM#50
Originally posted by GeezerGamer

Saying you demonstrated that you can see the numbers growing in the game is about as accurate as the people who say everyone I know quit so the game is dying. There is no actual evidence either way.

 

 

+1

 

The only information we know for sure is that the game has 4 full servers.   It could be more players joining, or it could be everybody is moving to those 4 servers.  We just don't know what exactly it means.   At best I would say the game is stable, since there haven't been any server closures.

  Purutzil

Advanced Member

Joined: 10/02/11
Posts: 2911

The Critical Hit Pretzel!

8/14/13 1:17:32 PM#51

 /facepalm

 

How many times are we going to go over the fact that "Full" on a server list tells nothing about the server population? Absolutely NOTHING. Say all the seats in my car are full. Do you know how many people there were to begin with? Now, say I get a new car that is smaller. Its full again, though again, do you know how many are in it by the full title?

 

Server Status in its population when given as a 'worded' answer is NOT a valid way to judge how populated a game server is. Its a number that can easily be manipulated (and has been a LOT). Heck, even direct population numbers can't be used to determine if a game is doing better or worst off by capturing a single moment, it has to be observed long term through the entire day for a month to really get a good evaluation of how a game is doing, something only the game devs can really do.

 

NEVER use it as a desperate attempt to discredit a game or promote one. We get it, you are desperate to prove the game is good, to validate your time spent on it in this case, but its NOT doing that, its just making you look... well desperate, which may or may not reflect the state of the game but it sure hints at it in a negative light, much like haters attempt to bash its numbers can typically do the reverse to their own cause.

  GeezerGamer

Elite Member

Joined: 4/03/12
Posts: 5247

8/14/13 1:24:07 PM#52
Originally posted by Purutzil

 /facepalm

 

How many times are we going to go over the fact that "Full" on a server list tells nothing about the server population? Absolutely NOTHING. Say all the seats in my car are full. Do you know how many people there were to begin with? Now, say I get a new car that is smaller. Its full again, though again, do you know how many are in it by the full title?

 

Server Status in its population when given as a 'worded' answer is NOT a valid way to judge how populated a game server is. Its a number that can easily be manipulated (and has been a LOT). Heck, even direct population numbers can't be used to determine if a game is doing better or worst off by capturing a single moment, it has to be observed long term through the entire day for a month to really get a good evaluation of how a game is doing, something only the game devs can really do.

 

NEVER use it as a desperate attempt to discredit a game or promote one. We get it, you are desperate to prove the game is good, to validate your time spent on it in this case, but its NOT doing that, its just making you look... well desperate, which may or may not reflect the state of the game but it sure hints at it in a negative light, much like haters attempt to bash its numbers can typically do the reverse to their own cause.

And if I yelled "SHOTGUN!" before I got into your car, does that mean the seat is taken even if I'm not sitting in it?

It's the sad state of the genre. The next big title has as many threads discussing issues with it's business model than issues with the game itself.

  Volkon

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/10
Posts: 3813

Facts do not require fiction for balance.

 
OP  8/14/13 1:34:44 PM#53
Originally posted by Purutzil

 /facepalm

 

How many times are we going to go over the fact that "Full" on a server list tells nothing about the server population? Absolutely NOTHING. Say all the seats in my car are full. Do you know how many people there were to begin with? Now, say I get a new car that is smaller. Its full again, though again, do you know how many are in it by the full title?

 

Server Status in its population when given as a 'worded' answer is NOT a valid way to judge how populated a game server is. Its a number that can easily be manipulated (and has been a LOT). Heck, even direct population numbers can't be used to determine if a game is doing better or worst off by capturing a single moment, it has to be observed long term through the entire day for a month to really get a good evaluation of how a game is doing, something only the game devs can really do.

 

NEVER use it as a desperate attempt to discredit a game or promote one. We get it, you are desperate to prove the game is good, to validate your time spent on it in this case, but its NOT doing that, its just making you look... well desperate, which may or may not reflect the state of the game but it sure hints at it in a negative light, much like haters attempt to bash its numbers can typically do the reverse to their own cause.

 

/counter-facepalm

 

We've already acknowledged that the status doesn't tell us the actual number of people (simply because we don't know the number). That's a fact, as you've stated and we all recognize. However, the fact that they're increasing the caps on the servers and the servers keep growing IS an indicator of a growing population of players in GW2. It's established that the status represents the number of players logged on at that point in time, as demonstrated by the value fluctuating and the fact that the communities can manipulate it with blackout events in order to squeeze more guilds onto a full server. Based on this observed phenomena we can state the relevance of the status to population.

 

It doesn't tell us numbers. It does tell us trends.

Oderint, dum metuant.

  Volkon

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/10
Posts: 3813

Facts do not require fiction for balance.

 
OP  8/14/13 1:38:52 PM#54
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

 

Gaffney the lead guy behind WildStar and founder of Turbine always says good MMOs lose 5% to 10% of their player base every month.  Mediocre and bad ones lose more than that a month.  So unless the game is selling as much as it did previous it is dropping steadlily.

Let us say GW2 is actually a "good" MMO.  It would have lost 60% of its players in a year period.  Now looks at sales:

Q4 '12 = 51,290

Q1 '13 = 14,376

Q2 '13 = 11,459

Total = 77,125 

This is sales figures in Korean Won but to make it simple just treat this as sales.  So ANet lost 20% from Q1 '13 to Q2 '13.  And lost 72% from Q4 '12 to Q1 '13.  If we apply the 5% churn to GW2 a month it lost 60% of its play base (best case scenario but isn't making up for that loss with increased sales.

   

 

Who the heck is Gaffney, and what makes him the expert at GW2 and the buy to play business model with content updates every two weeks? Besides, ANet themselves have stated that the population has been growing slowly and steadily after a dip after release. 

Oderint, dum metuant.

  GeezerGamer

Elite Member

Joined: 4/03/12
Posts: 5247

8/14/13 1:41:42 PM#55
Originally posted by Volkon
Originally posted by Purutzil

 /facepalm

 

How many times are we going to go over the fact that "Full" on a server list tells nothing about the server population? Absolutely NOTHING. Say all the seats in my car are full. Do you know how many people there were to begin with? Now, say I get a new car that is smaller. Its full again, though again, do you know how many are in it by the full title?

 

Server Status in its population when given as a 'worded' answer is NOT a valid way to judge how populated a game server is. Its a number that can easily be manipulated (and has been a LOT). Heck, even direct population numbers can't be used to determine if a game is doing better or worst off by capturing a single moment, it has to be observed long term through the entire day for a month to really get a good evaluation of how a game is doing, something only the game devs can really do.

 

NEVER use it as a desperate attempt to discredit a game or promote one. We get it, you are desperate to prove the game is good, to validate your time spent on it in this case, but its NOT doing that, its just making you look... well desperate, which may or may not reflect the state of the game but it sure hints at it in a negative light, much like haters attempt to bash its numbers can typically do the reverse to their own cause.

 

/counter-facepalm

 

We've already acknowledged that the status doesn't tell us the actual number of people (simply because we don't know the number). That's a fact, as you've stated and we all recognize. However, the fact that they're increasing the caps on the servers and the servers keep growing IS an indicator of a growing population of players in GW2. It's established that the status represents the number of players logged on at that point in time, as demonstrated by the value fluctuating and the fact that the communities can manipulate it with blackout events in order to squeeze more guilds onto a full server. Based on this observed phenomena we can state the relevance of the status to population.

 

It doesn't tell us numbers. It does tell us trends.

I've only ever seen one post by anyone from ANET that was written vaguely and could be interpreted in various ways? Was there other info was released on how server populations are determined? Blackout manipulations are fine in that you can say it appears to be a factor, but it doesn't rule out the possibility that the number of players who have a server as Home is not a factor as well. In which case, increasing the population caps can also be indicative of a decline in players.

And none of it is absolutely verifiable with anything that I've seen currently released. Which is why I asked for any other info.

It's the sad state of the genre. The next big title has as many threads discussing issues with it's business model than issues with the game itself.

  Jean-Luc_Picard

Elite Member

Joined: 1/10/13
Posts: 2902

There... are... four... lights!

8/14/13 1:44:23 PM#56

It's completely stupid to try to estimate player loss based on the sales. Selling less over time is normal and happens for all MMOs after initial release and after each expansion, including WoW, once people have bought the game once, they won't buy it several times more.

Some people are really ready to dismiss any kind of basic logic just to bash a game.

Playing now: WoW, Landmark, GW2

Got a refund: Archeage. First refund since I started MMOs.

Top 3 MMORPGs played: UO, AC1 and WoW

Honorable mentions: AO, LotRO and GW2.

"The ability to speak doesn't make you intelligent" - Qui-gon Jinn. After many years of reading Internet forums, there's no doubt that neither does the ability to write.

  SoMuchMass

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/13
Posts: 587

8/14/13 1:51:31 PM#57
Originally posted by Volkon
 

 

It doesn't tell us numbers. It does tell us trends.

It doesn't show us trends either.  What shows trends would be website traffic to gw2guru or guildwars2.com or /r/guildwars, which has decreased 60-75% since launch.  Things like Xfire and Raptr can also be used for trends as it gives us numbers over several months.

Devs telling us things that they do on certain servers is not trends.  We don't know anything of those numbers.

  SoMuchMass

Apprentice Member

Joined: 1/16/13
Posts: 587

8/14/13 1:55:15 PM#58
Originally posted by Volkon
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

 

Gaffney the lead guy behind WildStar and founder of Turbine always says good MMOs lose 5% to 10% of their player base every month.  Mediocre and bad ones lose more than that a month.  So unless the game is selling as much as it did previous it is dropping steadlily.

Let us say GW2 is actually a "good" MMO.  It would have lost 60% of its players in a year period.  Now looks at sales:

Q4 '12 = 51,290

Q1 '13 = 14,376

Q2 '13 = 11,459

Total = 77,125 

This is sales figures in Korean Won but to make it simple just treat this as sales.  So ANet lost 20% from Q1 '13 to Q2 '13.  And lost 72% from Q4 '12 to Q1 '13.  If we apply the 5% churn to GW2 a month it lost 60% of its play base (best case scenario but isn't making up for that loss with increased sales.

   

 

Who the heck is Gaffney, and what makes him the expert at GW2 and the buy to play business model with content updates every two weeks? Besides, ANet themselves have stated that the population has been growing slowly and steadily after a dip after release. 

Gaffney is the guy that hired most of the GW2 staff.  And probably knows more about MMOs thatn most people.  

Yeah I also believed it when Daniel Erikson said SWTOR was not losing subs.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/star-wars-the-old-republic-not-losing-subscribers-says-dev-6373226

  Volkon

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/10
Posts: 3813

Facts do not require fiction for balance.

 
OP  8/14/13 1:56:14 PM#59
Originally posted by GeezerGamer

I've only ever seen one post by anyone from ANET that was written vaguely and could be interpreted in various ways? Was there other info was released on how server populations are determined? Blackout manipulations are fine in that you can say it appears to be a factor, but it doesn't rule out the possibility that the number of players who have a server as Home is not a factor as well. In which case, increasing the population caps can also be indicative of a decline in players.

And none of it is absolutely verifiable with anything that I've seen currently released. Which is why I asked for any other info.

 

Eh... what? ... OK, I think I caught up. Here's the skinny. If it were based on the number of players calling the server home then the value would never decrease over a short period of time. Why? No subscription, all accounts are always considered active. Agreed?  Now, it's observed that the status can go from Full to Very High and back to Full again after a short period of time. By organizing a blackout event, i.e. a player driven event where a significant portion of the WvW community logs off at the same time, we've been able to drop the server status from Full to Very High long enough for guilds to transfer a number of their players to JQ. At a point the status flips back to Full, the event is over and we schedule one again for the next day or so. This would be impossible if status was tied to home population and strongly indicates that it's tied directly to actual logged in population. 

 

Hopefully that explains it well enough. 

Oderint, dum metuant.

  Volkon

Novice Member

Joined: 9/14/10
Posts: 3813

Facts do not require fiction for balance.

 
OP  8/14/13 2:00:07 PM#60
Originally posted by SoMuchMass

Gaffney is the guy that hired most of the GW2 staff.  And probably knows more about MMOs thatn most people.  

Yeah I also believed it when Daniel Erikson said SWTOR was not losing subs.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/star-wars-the-old-republic-not-losing-subscribers-says-dev-6373226

 

Subs? In this game there are no subs. 

 

And no... Gaffney went to Carbine in 2007, had nothing to do with hiring GW2 staff. He managed the acquisition of ArenaNet and Guild Wars way back when but had nothing to do with hiring. 

Oderint, dum metuant.

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