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Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » 2M F2P vs. 1.7M Reconciling the numbers.

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51 posts found
  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1278

 
OP  5/10/13 10:14:37 AM#1

EA announced 1.7M new F2P accounts in their quarterly results. This has to be accurate.

But towards the end of March Bioware revealed that they had 2M new F2P accounts.

Assuming that Bioware were being truthful the only way I can reconcile the two numbers is if 300k F2P accounts became subscribers in April when Makeb came out. (The $10 discount being close to the cost of a 1 month sub).

As EA also said that the game had "just under 500k" this would also mean that prior to Makeb the game had c. 200k subs.

NOTE: only assumption here is that Bioware were telling the truth.

 

EA also said that since they went F2P they had doubled their monthly revenue.

ASSUMPTION:  the game had 200k subs prior to going F2P and an average of 200k from December through March.

- So: pre-F2P revenue would have been c. 200k x $15 or $3M / month.

- For December through March revenue would have been (200k x $15) + cash shop. Or $12M + cash shop over 4 months.

- In April revenue jumps to: Subs: 500k x $15; Makeb purchases: 500kk x $10. Or $12.5M + cash shop.

- Total revenue in 5 months: $24.5M + cash shop or a monthly average of $4.9M + cash shop.

So doubling their revenue would mean that the cash shop would have to have generated (at least) $5.5M in 5 months. $1M per month average. 50c. a month based on 2M accounts or $10 over 5 months based on 100k people paying. (Zynga's metrics suggest that only 5% of F2P account pay anything, most play for free!).

So this works with what EA and Bioware have said.

 

TWEAK: the game probably lost some subscribers after it went F2P. If it had c. 260k prior to going F2P then this would have been $4M revenue per month. And to double revenue EA would have to have made $15.5M from the cash shop in 5 months. Say $3M per month or an average of $1.50 based on 2M accounts per month or $30 total from 100k users. Probably something between the two extremes: F2P accounts spending $5 to get preferred and then others buying packs etc.

 

I think I am happy with the number of subs dropping when the game went F2P and the cash shop bringing in more money but these sort of numbers seem to work with what Bioware and EA have said.

  User Deleted
5/10/13 10:53:36 AM#2
1 small mistake, Zynga said 5% of active players who play the game, not 5% of every account ever made.
  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10635

I think with my heart and move with my head.-Kongos

5/10/13 11:30:37 AM#3

The number of subscriptions they started with depends on the number of people they count as abandons. People who sign up, but who don't play or stop playing the game.

X is the number of subscriptions they started with. It was claimed to be 0.5M people, so 0.5M is the maximum value that X can have.
Y is the number of people who signed up, but who abandoned.
2M is the number of accounts created.
1.7M is the number of F2P accounts currently.
0.5M is the number of subscription accounts currently.

X + 2M - Y = (1.7M + 0.5M) = 2.2M

If X is 0.2M, then Y has to be counted as 0. That means 0.3M people who weren't previously subscribers decided to be subscribers.

Using this equation and substituting values for Y from 0M to 0.3M you can get an idea of how many subscribers they had to start with. Any number between 0 and 0.3M people will work. If Y is more than 0.3M people, then X becomes greater than 0.5M, which is about what EA said they had so we can't exceed 0.3M abandons.

There is some wiggle room because there is some time that passed between Mar. 21, when they announced 2M signups and the recent announcement of the number of people they have playing. I don't think that would be a huge number.

Have fun.

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  tiefighter25

Novice Member

Joined: 7/30/12
Posts: 949

5/10/13 1:04:27 PM#4

It could be as OP describes. Who knows. Corporate press releases are more of an art form then anything.

When Bioware said they had 2 million new ftp accounts, they also said SWTOR was the number 2 sub-based MMO in the Western World. Well if EVE has 500k+ paying sub accounts, well that doesn't really jibe.

In fact EA in general has been more spinster then anything in regard to SWTOR's sub numbers.

We have 1.7 million subs (turns out a large chunk were in their free month) SWTOR is the fastest growing MMO in history.

To, we have again, 1.7 million subs and growing (huh, how is it growing and have the same sub count?).

To, we have 1.3 million subs but stabilizing (even after giving everyone a free month?)

To, we have between one million and 500 k subs, but stabilizing. (That's a big range.)

To, subs don't matter anymore in a FTP game. (Then why is it a FTP option with an emphasis on subscribing. Are you sure subs don't count anymore?)

To, we are the 2nd biggest Western Sub-based MMO in the market. (But you said subs don't matter anymore, and it turns out you have less subs then EVE which has 500k +>)

To, we have less then 500k subs and growing. (Always a shrinking number. I don't think the game can take anymore growth or stabilization by your definition of the term.)

  fivoroth

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 11/10/06
Posts: 2751

5/10/13 1:26:42 PM#5
Originally posted by tiefighter25

It could be as OP describes. Who knows. Corporate press releases are more of an art form then anything.

When Bioware said they had 2 million new ftp accounts, they also said SWTOR was the number 2 sub-based MMO in the Western World. Well if EVE has 500k+ paying sub accounts, well that doesn't really jibe.

In fact EA in general has been more spinster then anything in regard to SWTOR's sub numbers.

We have 1.7 million subs (turns out a large chunk were in their free month) SWTOR is the fastest growing MMO in history.

To, we have again, 1.7 million subs and growing (huh, how is it growing and have the same sub count?).

To, we have 1.3 million subs but stabilizing (even after giving everyone a free month?)

To, we have between one million and 500 k subs, but stabilizing. (That's a big range.)

To, subs don't matter anymore in a FTP game. (Then why is it a FTP option with an emphasis on subscribing. Are you sure subs don't count anymore?)

To, we are the 2nd biggest Western Sub-based MMO in the market. (But you said subs don't matter anymore, and it turns out you have less subs then EVE which has 500k +>)

To, we have less then 500k subs and growing. (Always a shrinking number. I don't think the game can take anymore growth or stabilization by your definition of the term.)

Wait, I thought Eve had about 300k subs? Do you have a source for Eve's 500k?

Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.

  Livnthedream

Novice Member

Joined: 3/20/13
Posts: 582

I like this planet, YOU get off!

5/10/13 1:32:26 PM#6
Originally posted by fivoroth

Wait, I thought Eve had about 300k subs? Do you have a source for Eve's 500k?

It hit 500k a couple months back. The biggest issue with the Eve numbers though is the sheer number of players with multiple paid accounts. Ie paid accounts continue to rise, average concurrent user to not.

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  Skooma2

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/05/08
Posts: 684

5/10/13 1:33:14 PM#7

Allow me to state at the outset that I am not a troll.  I have a question that perhaps can be answered by the community.

 

Why do any of you care how many subs a particular MMO has?  Unless you are 1) playing a game teetering on the edge of a shutdown cliff,or, 2) are a shareholder of the company at issue,  what possible difference can a game's sub numbers mean to you?

Hedonismbot: Your latest performance was as delectable as dipping my bottom over and over into a bath of the silkiest oils and creams.

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3542

Hipster

5/10/13 1:35:38 PM#8
Originally posted by fivoroth
Originally posted by tiefighter25

It could be as OP describes. Who knows. Corporate press releases are more of an art form then anything.

When Bioware said they had 2 million new ftp accounts, they also said SWTOR was the number 2 sub-based MMO in the Western World. Well if EVE has 500k+ paying sub accounts, well that doesn't really jibe.

In fact EA in general has been more spinster then anything in regard to SWTOR's sub numbers.

We have 1.7 million subs (turns out a large chunk were in their free month) SWTOR is the fastest growing MMO in history.

To, we have again, 1.7 million subs and growing (huh, how is it growing and have the same sub count?).

To, we have 1.3 million subs but stabilizing (even after giving everyone a free month?)

To, we have between one million and 500 k subs, but stabilizing. (That's a big range.)

To, subs don't matter anymore in a FTP game. (Then why is it a FTP option with an emphasis on subscribing. Are you sure subs don't count anymore?)

To, we are the 2nd biggest Western Sub-based MMO in the market. (But you said subs don't matter anymore, and it turns out you have less subs then EVE which has 500k +>)

To, we have less then 500k subs and growing. (Always a shrinking number. I don't think the game can take anymore growth or stabilization by your definition of the term.)

Wait, I thought Eve had about 300k subs? Do you have a source for Eve's 500k?

http://www.ccpgames.com/en/public-relations/press-releases/article/74405/eve-online-surpasses-500-000-subscribers-worldwide

CCP are quite open about Subscriber numbers, you can also see concurrent accounts logged in on the client log in

  Scalpless

Hard Core Member

Joined: 3/22/07
Posts: 1303

5/10/13 1:59:08 PM#9
Originally posted by Skooma2

Allow me to state at the outset that I am not a troll.  I have a question that perhaps can be answered by the community.

 

Why do any of you care how many subs a particular MMO has?  Unless you are 1) playing a game teetering on the edge of a shutdown cliff,or, 2) are a shareholder of the company at issue,  what possible difference can a game's sub numbers mean to you?

Generally, the sub numbers and cash shop sales affect an MMO's budget, so a game that's doing great will have more updates than a game that's barely alive. If TOR's sub numbers keep falling and F2P fails to make up for it, Makeb may be the last big update it gets.

  Xiaoki

Advanced Member

Joined: 3/07/04
Posts: 2438

5/10/13 2:23:54 PM#10


Originally posted by Scalpless

Originally posted by Skooma2 Allow me to state at the outset that I am not a troll.  I have a question that perhaps can be answered by the community.   Why do any of you care how many subs a particular MMO has?  Unless you are 1) playing a game teetering on the edge of a shutdown cliff,or, 2) are a shareholder of the company at issue,  what possible difference can a game's sub numbers mean to you?
Generally, the sub numbers and cash shop sales affect an MMO's budget, so a game that's doing great will have more updates than a game that's barely alive. If TOR's sub numbers keep falling and F2P fails to make up for it, Makeb may be the last big update it gets.


EA also announced that revenue is up.


So, either the next update will be bigger than Makeb or EA will just pocket the cash and future updates will be similar in scope.

  Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 6980

5/10/13 2:32:55 PM#11


Originally posted by fivoroth

Wait, I thought Eve had about 300k subs? Do you have a source for Eve's 500k?

They started to add chinese server population(who knows how that is counted) into their sub numbers.

Go figure...

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3542

Hipster

5/10/13 3:07:02 PM#12
Originally posted by Gdemami

 


Originally posted by fivoroth

Wait, I thought Eve had about 300k subs? Do you have a source for Eve's 500k?

 

They started to add chinese server population(who knows how that is counted) into their sub numbers.

Go figure...

I imagine they count each monthly subscription (the only way to pay) as 1 subscription. Simple really.

  Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 6980

5/10/13 3:29:12 PM#13


Originally posted by RefMinor

I imagine they count each monthly subscription (the only way to pay) as 1 subscription. Simple really.

If only china server has same payment model...

All is so simple when you do not put much thought into it.

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3542

Hipster

5/10/13 3:44:59 PM#14
Originally posted by Gdemami

 


Originally posted by RefMinor

I imagine they count each monthly subscription (the only way to pay) as 1 subscription. Simple really.

 

If only china server has same payment model...

All is so simple when you do not put much thought into it.

The Chinese server uses prepaid game cards, minimum of 1 month at a time.

  Calerxes

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 2/06/09
Posts: 1659

5/10/13 6:26:26 PM#15
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by fivoroth
Originally posted by tiefighter25

It could be as OP describes. Who knows. Corporate press releases are more of an art form then anything.

When Bioware said they had 2 million new ftp accounts, they also said SWTOR was the number 2 sub-based MMO in the Western World. Well if EVE has 500k+ paying sub accounts, well that doesn't really jibe.

In fact EA in general has been more spinster then anything in regard to SWTOR's sub numbers.

We have 1.7 million subs (turns out a large chunk were in their free month) SWTOR is the fastest growing MMO in history.

To, we have again, 1.7 million subs and growing (huh, how is it growing and have the same sub count?).

To, we have 1.3 million subs but stabilizing (even after giving everyone a free month?)

To, we have between one million and 500 k subs, but stabilizing. (That's a big range.)

To, subs don't matter anymore in a FTP game. (Then why is it a FTP option with an emphasis on subscribing. Are you sure subs don't count anymore?)

To, we are the 2nd biggest Western Sub-based MMO in the market. (But you said subs don't matter anymore, and it turns out you have less subs then EVE which has 500k +>)

To, we have less then 500k subs and growing. (Always a shrinking number. I don't think the game can take anymore growth or stabilization by your definition of the term.)

Wait, I thought Eve had about 300k subs? Do you have a source for Eve's 500k?

http://www.ccpgames.com/en/public-relations/press-releases/article/74405/eve-online-surpasses-500-000-subscribers-worldwide

CCP are quite open about Subscriber numbers, you can also see concurrent accounts logged in on the client log in

 

Remember EVE has a Chinese client and that number is worldwide and did not EA say TOR was #2 in the West?

This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up™ the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3542

Hipster

5/10/13 6:30:27 PM#16
Originally posted by Calerxes
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by fivoroth
Originally posted by tiefighter25

It could be as OP describes. Who knows. Corporate press releases are more of an art form then anything.

When Bioware said they had 2 million new ftp accounts, they also said SWTOR was the number 2 sub-based MMO in the Western World. Well if EVE has 500k+ paying sub accounts, well that doesn't really jibe.

In fact EA in general has been more spinster then anything in regard to SWTOR's sub numbers.

We have 1.7 million subs (turns out a large chunk were in their free month) SWTOR is the fastest growing MMO in history.

To, we have again, 1.7 million subs and growing (huh, how is it growing and have the same sub count?).

To, we have 1.3 million subs but stabilizing (even after giving everyone a free month?)

To, we have between one million and 500 k subs, but stabilizing. (That's a big range.)

To, subs don't matter anymore in a FTP game. (Then why is it a FTP option with an emphasis on subscribing. Are you sure subs don't count anymore?)

To, we are the 2nd biggest Western Sub-based MMO in the market. (But you said subs don't matter anymore, and it turns out you have less subs then EVE which has 500k +>)

To, we have less then 500k subs and growing. (Always a shrinking number. I don't think the game can take anymore growth or stabilization by your definition of the term.)

Wait, I thought Eve had about 300k subs? Do you have a source for Eve's 500k?

http://www.ccpgames.com/en/public-relations/press-releases/article/74405/eve-online-surpasses-500-000-subscribers-worldwide

CCP are quite open about Subscriber numbers, you can also see concurrent accounts logged in on the client log in

 

Remember EVE has a Chinese client and that number is worldwide.

Correct, the concurrent numbers on the western client are only for Western players, not sure of the relevance of that to the subscriber numbers openly published by CCP though. My point was that CCP are open about it all.

  Calerxes

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 2/06/09
Posts: 1659

5/10/13 6:35:17 PM#17
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by Calerxes
Originally posted by RefMinor
Originally posted by fivoroth
Originally posted by tiefighter25

It could be as OP describes. Who knows. Corporate press releases are more of an art form then anything.

When Bioware said they had 2 million new ftp accounts, they also said SWTOR was the number 2 sub-based MMO in the Western World. Well if EVE has 500k+ paying sub accounts, well that doesn't really jibe.

In fact EA in general has been more spinster then anything in regard to SWTOR's sub numbers.

We have 1.7 million subs (turns out a large chunk were in their free month) SWTOR is the fastest growing MMO in history.

To, we have again, 1.7 million subs and growing (huh, how is it growing and have the same sub count?).

To, we have 1.3 million subs but stabilizing (even after giving everyone a free month?)

To, we have between one million and 500 k subs, but stabilizing. (That's a big range.)

To, subs don't matter anymore in a FTP game. (Then why is it a FTP option with an emphasis on subscribing. Are you sure subs don't count anymore?)

To, we are the 2nd biggest Western Sub-based MMO in the market. (But you said subs don't matter anymore, and it turns out you have less subs then EVE which has 500k +>)

To, we have less then 500k subs and growing. (Always a shrinking number. I don't think the game can take anymore growth or stabilization by your definition of the term.)

Wait, I thought Eve had about 300k subs? Do you have a source for Eve's 500k?

http://www.ccpgames.com/en/public-relations/press-releases/article/74405/eve-online-surpasses-500-000-subscribers-worldwide

CCP are quite open about Subscriber numbers, you can also see concurrent accounts logged in on the client log in

 

Remember EVE has a Chinese client and that number is worldwide.

Correct, the concurrent numbers on the western client are only for Western players, not sure of the relevance of that to the subscriber numbers openly published by CCP though. My point was that CCP are open about it all.

 

So CCP are open about their numbers by saying they've surpassed 500k and EA are not when the say they have nearly 500k?

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  simplius

Novice Member

Joined: 12/12/12
Posts: 979

5/11/13 6:26:30 AM#18

if i log into EVE, i can see how many players are online ,,every time

compare that to EAs quarterly reports, which are intentionally vague

also note, that EA numbers appear to be beefed up

cccp may do the same,,but not to the same extent

one company have good numbers,,and theyre proud, to show them

the other company have bad numbers,,and what do they do?

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1278

 
OP  5/11/13 7:42:39 AM#19
Originally posted by tiefighter25

It could be as OP describes. Who knows. Corporate press releases are more of an art form then anything.

When Bioware said they had 2 million new ftp accounts, they also said SWTOR was the number 2 sub-based MMO in the Western World. Well if EVE has 500k+ paying sub accounts, well that doesn't really jibe.

In fact EA in general has been more spinster then anything in regard to SWTOR's sub numbers.

We have 1.7 million subs (turns out a large chunk were in their free month) SWTOR is the fastest growing MMO in history.

To, we have again, 1.7 million subs and growing (huh, how is it growing and have the same sub count?).

To, we have 1.3 million subs but stabilizing (even after giving everyone a free month?)

To, we have between one million and 500 k subs, but stabilizing. (That's a big range.)

To, subs don't matter anymore in a FTP game. (Then why is it a FTP option with an emphasis on subscribing. Are you sure subs don't count anymore?)

To, we are the 2nd biggest Western Sub-based MMO in the market. (But you said subs don't matter anymore, and it turns out you have less subs then EVE which has 500k +>)

To, we have less then 500k subs and growing. (Always a shrinking number. I don't think the game can take anymore growth or stabilization by your definition of the term.)

 Agree.

If an account changed from F2P to subscription however those accounts would no longer be counted as F2P - and that seemed a pretty simple explanation to me. Exec asks someone to print out todays F2P account number and minion presses the button. The fact that no one realised 1.7M was less than the 2M number plastered anywhere it would stick a month earlier ... whoops! 

  Calerxes

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 2/06/09
Posts: 1659

5/11/13 7:50:19 AM#20
Originally posted by simplius

if i log into EVE, i can see how many players are online ,,every time

compare that to EAs quarterly reports, which are intentionally vague

also note, that EA numbers appear to be beefed up

cccp may do the same,,but not to the same extent

one company have good numbers,,and theyre proud, to show them

the other company have bad numbers,,and what do they do?

 

If I log into TOR I can see server load on the server screen and when I play I can /who for all players playing, it takes a bit more effort but I last did it (yes I'm sad) when i recently resubbed to TOR after a 8 month absence. Server, The Progenitor RP server EU,  server load Heavy, the player concurrent logins on server, 4598, both factions counted Sunday evening peak time. Every Planet has how many players are on the planet in the top left corner with friends and guildies online, you can search OP's, FP's, WZ's, class, race etc.. can you do that in EvE? The info is there for all to see if you want to, so do you want to its free?

 

NEXT!

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