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Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » Makeb as an indication of sub numbers.

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57 posts found
  Phry

Elite Member

Joined: 7/01/04
Posts: 5020

4/29/13 11:02:07 AM#41
Just want to throw this in there, i am a current subscriber to SW;TOR, i even have the RotHC expansion.. but.. i havent been to makeb yet, i'll get around to it eventually, but, it might take me a couple of months..  perhaps if you checked out Makeb again in 3 or 4 months time you might get a better idea of figures, maybe.. tbh, unless EA starts giving out figures, all the OP is doing is guesswork, and even less valid than a xfire statistic would be
  Thorkune

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 9/28/06
Posts: 1779

Dyslexics of the world...UNTIE!

4/29/13 11:07:07 AM#42
Every expansion spikes for a little while after release. Let's run these numbers again next month and we'll see what shows...
  eric_w66

Novice Member

Joined: 1/12/06
Posts: 1008

4/29/13 3:20:48 PM#43
Originally posted by Muke
Originally posted by DaRoamer
 

Actually we know for a fact that SWTOR has more subs than Eve because Bioware has said they are second behind WoW in terms of sub numbers.  I think between 500k and 1 million is a fair estimate and it was in the range previously provided.  The rest of the population is made up of free to play and preferred players.  When you add in extra revenue from subs on top of whatever free players are spending on the market I'd say SWTOR is quite healthy.  1 million was one of their target benchmarks and that only included sub money and not additional revenue from the store.

still, EVE is thriving and having more players on the server then SWTOR has :(

Eve's numbers are skewed because everyone is running 2 or 3 (or more) accounts. Difference between active subscribed accounts and active subscribed players:

SWTOR: 1:1 or close to it (I know of no one that has more than 1 sub to SWTOR)

EVE: 2:1 or 3:1 (I myself *had* 2 accounts for Eve, know of many people who had/have multiple accounts).

 

So if you see that 50,000 online for Eve, that's really more like 20,000 players. Heh.

  observer

Elite Member

Joined: 2/17/05
Posts: 2063

First came pride, then envy.

4/29/13 3:24:49 PM#44
Originally posted by Ahnog
Your figures do not take into account all the people on other planets.

I would like to add that time zones and peak hours are also variables to consider.

There are many aspects left out in the OP's calculations..

  Sevenstar61

Advanced Member

Joined: 7/22/12
Posts: 1475

"But it was so artistically done..." - Grand Admiral Thrawn's final words

4/29/13 4:11:49 PM#45
Originally posted by eric_w66
Originally posted by Muke
Originally posted by DaRoamer
 

Actually we know for a fact that SWTOR has more subs than Eve because Bioware has said they are second behind WoW in terms of sub numbers.  I think between 500k and 1 million is a fair estimate and it was in the range previously provided.  The rest of the population is made up of free to play and preferred players.  When you add in extra revenue from subs on top of whatever free players are spending on the market I'd say SWTOR is quite healthy.  1 million was one of their target benchmarks and that only included sub money and not additional revenue from the store.

still, EVE is thriving and having more players on the server then SWTOR has :(

Eve's numbers are skewed because everyone is running 2 or 3 (or more) accounts. Difference between active subscribed accounts and active subscribed players:

SWTOR: 1:1 or close to it (I know of no one that has more than 1 sub to SWTOR)

EVE: 2:1 or 3:1 (I myself *had* 2 accounts for Eve, know of many people who had/have multiple accounts).

 

So if you see that 50,000 online for Eve, that's really more like 20,000 players. Heh.

I have sub in EVE but login only to get skills up... soon though EVE will have minus one sub... it's beyond boring (aka not my kind of fun).


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  tiefighter25

Novice Member

Joined: 7/30/12
Posts: 949

 
OP  4/29/13 11:38:02 PM#46

Hey guys, OP here.

Yes this was all speculation on my part, but I did think it was an interesting exercise.

Makeb is unique in the Freemium world (I think) in that it is an expansion in that it is both a new area and a new level cap.

(Other Freemium games have DLC new areas, but not level caps which are tied to subscriptions.)

I saw Makeb as a way to ballpark subscription numbers when Makeb was new.

As to those saying that I didn't include fleets, other planets, etc; if anything, I erred in SWTOR's favor.

The most populated servers were reporting 30 instances of Makeb. (Servers vary in population, you can look on TOR Status to see this if you want)

I baked into my speculation that 17 (I excluded APAC) all were running 30 instances of Makeb, including Jung-MA, and the German PVP server, etc.

I also think that I could easily have guessed that a new expansion would have a 20% concurrency, but again erred in SWTOR's favor to 5-10%

If anything my speculative exercise's numbers are inflated.

As to EVE, they claim 500,000 subs. Wheter people have multiple accounts (But are still paying for them) doesn't really matter; that is the sub number they state and Bioware says they have more of, but without disclosing sub numbers.

  altair4

Apprentice Member

Joined: 9/21/04
Posts: 158

4/30/13 2:01:56 AM#47
Originally posted by tiefighter25

As to EVE, they claim 500,000 subs. Wheter people have multiple accounts (But are still paying for them) doesn't really matter; that is the sub number they state and Bioware says they have more of, but without disclosing sub numbers.

Bioware never states they have more subs, they just state that Swtor has more players, 100% sure they are  counting F2P players aswell. They just call Swtor a subscription MMO, eventhough it has a F2P option, and then try and compare it to subscription based only games.

F2P hasn't saved Swtor and it won't either. Only thing that could possibly save Swtor is that they manage to keep the crazy people that not only are paying a monthly fee but also spending loads on the Cartel Shop. But that will drop off over time for sure. 

  tiefighter25

Novice Member

Joined: 7/30/12
Posts: 949

 
OP  4/30/13 2:10:02 AM#48
Originally posted by altair4
Originally posted by tiefighter25

As to EVE, they claim 500,000 subs. Wheter people have multiple accounts (But are still paying for them) doesn't really matter; that is the sub number they state and Bioware says they have more of, but without disclosing sub numbers.

Bioware never states they have more subs, they just state that Swtor has more players, 100% sure they are  counting F2P players aswell. They just call Swtor a subscription MMO, eventhough it has a F2P option, and then try and compare it to subscription based only games.

F2P hasn't saved Swtor and it won't either. Only thing that could possibly save Swtor is that they manage to keep the crazy people that not only are paying a monthly fee but also spending loads on the Cartel Shop. But that will drop off over time for sure. 

"As Ohlen put it, TOR is the second biggest subscription MMORPG in the western world". -Joystiq

I will edit this later.

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1155

4/30/13 5:10:51 AM#49

As tiefighter25 says this is just a speculative exercise; and a reasonable fun one imo.

And Olsen did indeed refer to subs - he didn't say what game SWTOR was number 2 (in the west) to however. I definitely feel that if SWTOR had more subscribers than Eve - so more than 500k - EA would have reported this in its quarterly results.

To put 500k+ into context post-launch SWTOR had 850k subs. EA gave out a 1.7M number last Feb and then "clarified" in March that "just about half" were recurring subscribers". So if the game still has/had 500k this would be significant good news. (And that is without the F2P contribution.) Considering how little good news they had to present with their last quarterly results I find it very unlikely that they would have "forgotten" to say so if this was the case.

 

(In reply to Muke above: the only reference to Eve is in regard to sub numbers, not whether one game is a sandbox etc. etc.)

 

  Pongo_

Apprentice Member

Joined: 5/08/06
Posts: 35

5/01/13 12:42:35 AM#50

i'm curious if anyone knows the actual sales numbers for ROTHC.

i find it interesting that i cannot find it anywhere.

it's not a good sign if EA doesn't want to disclose it.

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1155

5/01/13 7:42:04 AM#51
Originally posted by Pongo_

i'm curious if anyone knows the actual sales numbers for ROTHC.

i find it interesting that i cannot find it anywhere.

it's not a good sign if EA doesn't want to disclose it.

No. EA don't, as a general rule, provide sales numbers for any of their titles. If they have a big hit - based on past quarterly results something that sells 1M+ inthe period after launch - these tend to get a mention but other than that they don;t bother.

What will be telliing is future content - players having been told that how well Makeb did would have an impact on future "stuff". If they start turning out quarterly "expansions" + frequent fluff packs (as they tend to do with the Sims say) then one can assume that things are going well - what they said they were going to do in fact! Small, infrequent releases however would suggest less well - less income = fewer staff = slower, smaller releases etc.

  tiefighter25

Novice Member

Joined: 7/30/12
Posts: 949

 
OP  5/09/13 1:18:11 PM#52
Originally posted by tiefighter25
my numbers would put my estimate at 510,000.
I still think that's is giving SWTOR more subs then it has, but it still is a useful exercise.

Makeb may very well show what the true subscriber base number is. (Ballpark at any rate.)

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

(I edited my quote from myself for dramatic effect.)

  RefMinor

Novice Member

Joined: 7/16/11
Posts: 3540

Hipster

5/09/13 1:22:10 PM#53
Originally posted by tiefighter25
Originally posted by tiefighter25
my numbers would put my estimate at 510,000.
I still think that's is giving SWTOR more subs then it has, but it still is a useful exercise.

Makeb may very well show what the true subscriber base number is. (Ballpark at any rate.)

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

(I edited my quote from myself for dramatic effect.)

 

"Since Makeb was new, it's pretty fair to assume that at least 10% of the people who ponied up the money to play it were playing it.

Even with erring on a generous side, that would mean SWTOR has around 255,000 subscribers. (Assuming a 10% concurrent population.)

Want to argue only 5% of the players played the game at the launch of the expansion, well that's 510,000 subscribers. (Which I find unlikely.)"

Full quote for comparison :-)

  tiefighter25

Novice Member

Joined: 7/30/12
Posts: 949

 
OP  5/09/13 1:25:16 PM#54
Don't ruin my fun Ref!
  simplius

Novice Member

Joined: 12/12/12
Posts: 978

5/09/13 2:12:53 PM#55

EA said "just under 500k", right?

how much is that,,legally?

i have a feeling, that the last HONEST number i saw, was from STO,,70k subs, right before F2P

PS even that number was prolly beefed up,,with lifetime accounts

  DanitaKusor

Apprentice Member

Joined: 6/17/09
Posts: 528

5/10/13 4:37:25 AM#56
30 instances of Makeb seems a little generous, there were only 3 running last night when I was on and the wait for a flashpoint is stretching considerably (2hrs+ now).  This is on Harbinger too, one of the more populous servers.

The Enlightened take things Lightly

  User Deleted
5/10/13 7:24:47 AM#57
Originally posted by simplius

EA said "just under 500k", right?

how much is that,,legally?

its 0 - 500 000.

But it doesnt matter that much, they know thats the peak and it will drop again very fast to whatever it was before paid content update (maybe more because lack of content, even more than at launch, Makeb takes 1-2 days to finish and even most dedicated fans are running out of alts to level 1-50)

EvE publishes its numbers regularly.

 

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