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Star Wars: The Old Republic

Star Wars: The Old Republic 

General Discussion  » Makeb as an indication of sub numbers.

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57 posts found
  tiefighter25

Novice Member

Joined: 7/30/12
Posts: 949

 
OP  4/28/13 4:03:34 PM#21
Originally posted by gervaise1

Basic premise seems OK - just ignore any F2P folks who have bought it and assume any estimate is on the high side.

However to apply concurrence that would mean that all servers had e.g. 30 instances of Makeb all the time. Is this the case?

Also 10% seems very low for somethuing that is "new and shiny". Post launch EA were touting playtimes of 8 hours a day - which was supported by what X-Fire showed back then (which took a while to drop down to 5 hours a day average). Now 8 hours a day - suggesting 33% concurrence maybe - could be to high but 10% is probably on the low side.

I agree, but I was afraid of all the pitchforks that might come my way if I suggested anything higher then 10% concurence rate, even though it is a shiny new expansion. I envisioned people saying that the launch was spilt up over a pre-order head start and everyone else.

I think my estimate is inflated, but it does show that the subscriber base has not grown by leaps and bounds which Bioware has kinda/sort of been alluding to lately.

I still think it's disingenuous of Bioware to claim that SWTOR is the 2nd highest sub-based MMO (which implies over 500k which EVE has) and then when asked directly (by investors) how many subscribers SWTOR has, EA refuses to answer the question and states that sub numbers are unimportant.

  Sevenstar61

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/22/12
Posts: 1686

"But it was so artistically done..." - Grand Admiral Thrawn's final words

4/28/13 4:10:22 PM#22

Fleets are all the time same populated and based on comments majority of players there are subbed. And it was that way from the first day of Makeb. Add it to your equation please.

 


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  xm522

Apprentice Member

Joined: 3/23/09
Posts: 116

4/28/13 4:18:28 PM#23

The error gap in this analysis is of a +/- 100%. you need to re-do this with a lot more data to back up your math.

once you have some solid numbers to go by (any data bank sunch as x-fire can help) you can the start doing some error propagation and it would help you come up with a much much more 'legitimate' estimate.

If i were to do this i would look at play time numbers of the game 20 days post release and then look at the play time numbers now, this will give you a ration of hours played and of # of unique players.

error propagation formula

error^2 = (partial with respect to x)^2(eror in x) + (partial with respect to y)^2(error in y)

x = amount of unique hits (players)

y = play time

 

  mmoguy43

Spotlight Poster

Joined: 3/31/09
Posts: 2354

4/28/13 4:25:50 PM#24
What does it matter if the profit generated from the cartel market far exceeds what is made from subs? They can claim with pride how they have the 2nd most subs all they want.

Let's build the ultimate MMO 1 feature at a time
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/398555/page/1

"blocked nariusseldon since forever"

  keithian

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/20/06
Posts: 3040

4/28/13 4:41:34 PM#25
I think there are only 500 people playing and Bioware manipulates the numbers showing on screen to fight the theories of those in these forums. There, does that help all the haters rejoice? lol

There Is Always Hope!

  DaRoamer

Novice Member

Joined: 5/11/10
Posts: 254

4/28/13 6:06:13 PM#26
Originally posted by tiefighter25
Originally posted by DaRoamer
Originally posted by tiefighter25

So Makeb has hit and people are playing it.

Oft times people ask how many SWTOR players are subscribers and how many are Free-To-Players.

Well, odds are if you were playing in Makeb, you were a subscriber.

Many people stated that Makeb had 30 instances (albeit with 50 people per instance.)

For shits and giggles, that means, on the generous side, 17 servers (leaving out the paltry APAC servers) times 30 instances, times 50 players, equals a max concurrent number of 25,500 players.

30 (instances) x 50 (players) x 17 (servers) = 25,500 players.

Since Makeb was new, it's pretty fair to assume that at least 10% of the people who ponied up the money to play it were playing it.

Even with erring on a generous side, that would mean SWTOR has around 255,000 subscribers. (Assuming a 10% concurrent population.)

Want to argue only 5% of the players played the game at the launch of the expansion, well that's 510,000 subscribers. (Which I find unlikely.)

Feel free to poke holes in my observations. I would guess EVE has more subscribers, and that SWTOR is funded a ton through the cartel shop and not a rush of new subscribers.

Prepare yourselves for 2.1 "Customization".

Your math is wrong.  When a planet shows you the number of people in your instance it's only showing you your faction, you can double your numbers.

Excellent point and very short-sighted of me. Doubling my numbers would put my estimate at 510,000 to 1,020, 000 subscribers. Close to EVE's number of subscribers.

Hat's off to you for recognizing my error.

I still think that's is giving SWTOR more subs then it has, but it still is a useful exercise.

Makeb may very well show what the true subsciber base number is. (Ballpark at any rate.)

Actually we know for a fact that SWTOR has more subs than Eve because Bioware has said they are second behind WoW in terms of sub numbers.  I think between 500k and 1 million is a fair estimate and it was in the range previously provided.  The rest of the population is made up of free to play and preferred players.  When you add in extra revenue from subs on top of whatever free players are spending on the market I'd say SWTOR is quite healthy.  1 million was one of their target benchmarks and that only included sub money and not additional revenue from the store.

  Wizardry

Elite Member

Joined: 8/27/04
Posts: 7019

Perhaps tomorrow will be better.

4/28/13 6:16:08 PM#27

Only problem is that i don't call a freebie a subscriber because if he/she had to pay they would be gone.

Your numbers are off anyhow,you don't have every single subscriber on at the same time.The numbers would be around the 20:1 ratio over time but being brand new content,yes it might be a lot closer.

Unless a server  has some way of showing current players online and which are freebie you could be way off on numbers,not 5% more like 50 % off and either way.

http://www.youtube.com/user/Napolianboo#p/u/15/rCYLLQCNc1w
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  simplius

Novice Member

Joined: 12/12/12
Posts: 979

4/29/13 6:08:05 AM#28
Originally posted by DaRoamer
Originally posted by tiefighter25
Originally posted by DaRoamer
Originally posted by tiefighter25

So Makeb has hit and people are playing it.

Oft times people ask how many SWTOR players are subscribers and how many are Free-To-Players.

Well, odds are if you were playing in Makeb, you were a subscriber.

Many people stated that Makeb had 30 instances (albeit with 50 people per instance.)

For shits and giggles, that means, on the generous side, 17 servers (leaving out the paltry APAC servers) times 30 instances, times 50 players, equals a max concurrent number of 25,500 players.

30 (instances) x 50 (players) x 17 (servers) = 25,500 players.

Since Makeb was new, it's pretty fair to assume that at least 10% of the people who ponied up the money to play it were playing it.

Even with erring on a generous side, that would mean SWTOR has around 255,000 subscribers. (Assuming a 10% concurrent population.)

Want to argue only 5% of the players played the game at the launch of the expansion, well that's 510,000 subscribers. (Which I find unlikely.)

Feel free to poke holes in my observations. I would guess EVE has more subscribers, and that SWTOR is funded a ton through the cartel shop and not a rush of new subscribers.

Prepare yourselves for 2.1 "Customization".

Your math is wrong.  When a planet shows you the number of people in your instance it's only showing you your faction, you can double your numbers.

Excellent point and very short-sighted of me. Doubling my numbers would put my estimate at 510,000 to 1,020, 000 subscribers. Close to EVE's number of subscribers.

Hat's off to you for recognizing my error.

I still think that's is giving SWTOR more subs then it has, but it still is a useful exercise.

Makeb may very well show what the true subsciber base number is. (Ballpark at any rate.)

Actually we know for a fact that SWTOR has more subs than Eve because Bioware has said they are second behind WoW in terms of sub numbers.  I think between 500k and 1 million is a fair estimate and it was in the range previously provided.  The rest of the population is made up of free to play and preferred players.  When you add in extra revenue from subs on top of whatever free players are spending on the market I'd say SWTOR is quite healthy.  1 million was one of their target benchmarks and that only included sub money and not additional revenue from the store.

that would mean roughly 3 mio swtor players,,thats more, than at launch

and they would have to fit into 1/10 of the servers

this doesnt seem right,,even with the new super servers

and some devs inflate their numbers,,blizzard surely does

  Muke

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/04/07
Posts: 1641

4/29/13 6:09:57 AM#29
Originally posted by DaRoamer
 

Actually we know for a fact that SWTOR has more subs than Eve because Bioware has said they are second behind WoW in terms of sub numbers.  I think between 500k and 1 million is a fair estimate and it was in the range previously provided.  The rest of the population is made up of free to play and preferred players.  When you add in extra revenue from subs on top of whatever free players are spending on the market I'd say SWTOR is quite healthy.  1 million was one of their target benchmarks and that only included sub money and not additional revenue from the store.

still, EVE is thriving and having more players on the server then SWTOR has :(

"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1484

4/29/13 6:32:21 AM#30

Actually what Bioware said was (something like) second largest sub based game in the west. Which got me thinking.

Ignoring the fact that EA won't (shouldn't) actually know the sub numbers for other manufacturers games - so its an opinion - what are the other "western" sub based games?

Technically Eve is a worldwide game - it was originally released in Europe and US in 2003 but then CCP distributed in digitally "worldwide". So on that basis it would be excluded from the comparison - as is WoW strictly speaking.

Even SWTOR itself is not, strictly speaking, a western mmorpg - although with the closing of the ANZAC servers the population outside the EU and US is probably small.

Bottomline: there are not very many "western" only sub based games.

If SWTOR was "second to WoW" and ahead of Eve - implying that SWTOR had more than 500k subscribers - we can be very, very sure that EA would have shouted it from the rooftops and let everyone know.

So what did EA assume? That SWTOR was second to Eve - when anyone talks about WoW subs they are talking worldwide afterall. Or maybe that WAR is number 1 and SWTOR number 2 ..... 

I suspect they might have been were saying smaller than Eve and WoW but bigger than all other sub based games (so no Lineage in the west, Final Fantasy, LoL, Clone Wars, Runescape, AoC etc etc).

Which, frankly, is no big deal. Bigger than WAR, DAoC, UO - numbers they would know - and bigger than Darkfall (an assumption) and a few other, even smaller, games.

  Ahnog

Advanced Member

Joined: 7/18/05
Posts: 232

4/29/13 6:33:00 AM#31
Your figures do not take into account all the people on other planets.

Ahnog

Hokey religions are no replacement for a good blaster at your side.

http://www.ahnog.us

  gervaise1

Elite Member

Joined: 1/17/07
Posts: 1484

4/29/13 6:57:55 AM#32
Originally posted by Ahnog
Your figures do not take into account all the people on other planets.

The basic assumption is that subscribers will have purchased the expansion and will be playing on Makeb - because its new and they have just purchased the expansion - and that F2P people have not purchased the expansion and are limited to the other planets. Its an assumption but I think it is reasonable.

  bubaluba

Novice Member

Joined: 7/23/12
Posts: 464

4/29/13 7:05:39 AM#33
I see that you don't have much expirience with mmo's.  
  Emhster

Advanced Member

Joined: 11/28/09
Posts: 919

Played: Shadowbane, WoW, WAR, AOC, Aion, SWTOR, Rift, Tera, Neverwinter, FFXIV

4/29/13 7:06:36 AM#34

Been playing for few weeks. So far so good. There are always multiple instances running in most planets I've been playing on so far. GTN is going fine.

In other words: the game is in healthy condition.

  Muke

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/04/07
Posts: 1641

4/29/13 7:09:47 AM#35
Originally posted by gervaise1

Actually what Bioware said was (something like) second largest sub based game in the west. Which got me thinking.

Ignoring the fact that EA won't (shouldn't) actually know the sub numbers for other manufacturers games - so its an opinion - what are the other "western" sub based games?

Technically Eve is a worldwide game - it was originally released in Europe and US in 2003 but then CCP distributed in digitally "worldwide". So on that basis it would be excluded from the comparison - as is WoW strictly speaking.

Even SWTOR itself is not, strictly speaking, a western mmorpg - although with the closing of the ANZAC servers the population outside the EU and US is probably small.

Bottomline: there are not very many "western" only sub based games.

If SWTOR was "second to WoW" and ahead of Eve - implying that SWTOR had more than 500k subscribers - we can be very, very sure that EA would have shouted it from the rooftops and let everyone know.

So what did EA assume? That SWTOR was second to Eve - when anyone talks about WoW subs they are talking worldwide afterall. Or maybe that WAR is number 1 and SWTOR number 2 ..... 

I suspect they might have been were saying smaller than Eve and WoW but bigger than all other sub based games (so no Lineage in the west, Final Fantasy, LoL, Clone Wars, Runescape, AoC etc etc).

Which, frankly, is no big deal. Bigger than WAR, DAoC, UO - numbers they would know - and bigger than Darkfall (an assumption) and a few other, even smaller, games.

 

 

So you are comparing EVE; a 2003 game, single server with 500k players, 100% sandbox where players make a difference on the gameworld to SWTOR which is a themepark, scripted, levelbased, no full loot pvp, no impact on the gameworld by the players and which has tens of servers with like a maximum of 1000 players on it...adds to that that all servers are exact copies of each 'star wars universe'?

 

Makes sense.

"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"

  bubaluba

Novice Member

Joined: 7/23/12
Posts: 464

4/29/13 7:10:16 AM#36
Originally posted by Emhster

Been playing for few weeks. So far so good. There are always multiple instances running in most planets I've been playing on so far. GTN is going fine.

In other words: the game is in healthy condition.

I dare to say that SWTOR is most populated game after WOW

  Muke

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/04/07
Posts: 1641

4/29/13 7:13:13 AM#37
Originally posted by bubaluba
Originally posted by Emhster

Been playing for few weeks. So far so good. There are always multiple instances running in most planets I've been playing on so far. GTN is going fine.

In other words: the game is in healthy condition.

I dare to say that SWTOR is most populated game after WOW

proof.

"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"

  ktanner3

Master

Joined: 3/19/06
Posts: 4152

Trolls will be ignored

4/29/13 8:28:07 AM#38
Originally posted by gervaise1
Originally posted by Ahnog
Your figures do not take into account all the people on other planets.

The basic assumption is that subscribers will have purchased the expansion and will be playing on Makeb - because its new and they have just purchased the expansion - and that F2P people have not purchased the expansion and are limited to the other planets. Its an assumption but I think it is reasonable.

Not when you take into account that a lot of new content from that expansion takes place on the other planets. Both the bio and the mining questlines have you going across the other planets as do the new dailies. So yes, if you're going to make "assumptions" on numbers then you need to count the other planets. 

Currently Playing: Star Wars The Old Republic

  Muke

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/04/07
Posts: 1641

4/29/13 9:03:06 AM#39
Originally posted by ktanner3
Originally posted by gervaise1
Originally posted by Ahnog
Your figures do not take into account all the people on other planets.

The basic assumption is that subscribers will have purchased the expansion and will be playing on Makeb - because its new and they have just purchased the expansion - and that F2P people have not purchased the expansion and are limited to the other planets. Its an assumption but I think it is reasonable.

Not when you take into account that a lot of new content from that expansion takes place on the other planets. Both the bio and the mining questlines have you going across the other planets as do the new dailies. So yes, if you're going to make "assumptions" on numbers then you need to count the other planets. 

The problem is someone wants to use numbers to make a statement, and for that assumptions on numbers are used.

That makes it totally useless. Numbers should be based on hard facts.

"going into arguments with idiots is a lost cause, it requires you to stoop down to their level and you can't win"

  ktanner3

Master

Joined: 3/19/06
Posts: 4152

Trolls will be ignored

4/29/13 11:52:12 AM#40
Originally posted by Muke
Originally posted by ktanner3
Originally posted by gervaise1
Originally posted by Ahnog
Your figures do not take into account all the people on other planets.

The basic assumption is that subscribers will have purchased the expansion and will be playing on Makeb - because its new and they have just purchased the expansion - and that F2P people have not purchased the expansion and are limited to the other planets. Its an assumption but I think it is reasonable.

Not when you take into account that a lot of new content from that expansion takes place on the other planets. Both the bio and the mining questlines have you going across the other planets as do the new dailies. So yes, if you're going to make "assumptions" on numbers then you need to count the other planets. 

The problem is someone wants to use numbers to make a statement, and for that assumptions on numbers are used.

That makes it totally useless. Numbers should be based on hard facts.

Usually I would agree with you on that but since Bioware has not released sub numbers in the last year, people are left to speculate. My guess would be somewhere around 300 k.

Currently Playing: Star Wars The Old Republic

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