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Hardware  » Nail in the coffin?

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64 posts found
  Falice

Novice Member

Joined: 8/14/08
Posts: 329

 
OP  4/10/13 10:00:04 PM#1

I mentioned sometime ago that I thought/guessed that PC's are a dieing breed. Current gen consoles were able to keep up pretty well with PC's, next gen will do even better - and tablets/phones will become more powerful... I really think PC's are going the way of the VCR.

http://m.ign.com/articles/2013/04/10/pc-shipments-mark-biggest-decline-in-nearly-20-years

  kadepsyson

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/15/06
Posts: 1964

The doctors say his chances are 50/50...but there's only a 10% chance of that.

4/10/13 10:03:08 PM#2

They will not be replaced in our lifetime.

 

I don't think a tablet or phone would work for air traffic control, geological surveying, or professional securities trading for example.  I don't care if there is an app for that.

 

Seeing people walking down sidewalks eyes glued to their smartphones is more akin to the zombie apocalypse than an electronics revolution.

El Psy Congroo

  Robokapp

Elite Member

Joined: 11/15/09
Posts: 4157

The only luck I had today was to have you as my opponent.

4/10/13 10:06:51 PM#3

so next-gan consoles with beat present-gen pc's.

 

what about next-gen pc's ?

 

personally I don't really care if a console is better. I like my PC.

  dinams

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/17/10
Posts: 1403

4/10/13 10:07:05 PM#4

As long as you cant:

 

Game properly

Perform complex calculus and algorithms

Geological Surveys

Programming(properly)

 

On a mobile platform, PC will exist

And consoles CAN'T keep up with PC technology, hell, this 'next-gen' will already be obsolete in a year or two

"It has potential"
-Second most used phrase on existence
"It sucks"
-Most used phrase on existence

  snapfusion

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/17/11
Posts: 976

4/10/13 10:07:37 PM#5
That was you? Your the guy that came up with this "PC's are a dying breed" thing?  I was totally wondering who that was.
  Robokapp

Elite Member

Joined: 11/15/09
Posts: 4157

The only luck I had today was to have you as my opponent.

4/10/13 10:08:59 PM#6
i don't really care if PC's live forever or not. As long as i die before they do. :D

  dinams

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/17/10
Posts: 1403

4/10/13 10:10:06 PM#7
Originally posted by Robokapp
i don't really care if PC's live forever or not. As long as i die before they do. :D

My worst fear is that Mobile becomes the THING

Jesus no, it makes me remember all those new generation of so-called nerds that only play angry-birds

 

I hope virtual reality gadgets comes sooner

"It has potential"
-Second most used phrase on existence
"It sucks"
-Most used phrase on existence

  Latronus

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/10/08
Posts: 709

PC is not political correctness, it means Political Cowardice!

4/10/13 10:10:06 PM#8
Originally posted by kadepsyson

They will not be replaced in our lifetime.

 

I don't think a tablet or phone would work for air traffic control, geological surveying, or professional securities trading for example.  I don't care if there is an app for that.

 

Seeing people walking down sidewalks eyes glued to their smartphones is more akin to the zombie apocalypse than an electronics revolution.

I tend to agree.  Besides, I hate playing games on the small ass cell phone screens, and holding something the size of an iPad to your ear would just look wrong.

  strangepowers

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/18/08
Posts: 535

SCAD Animation-Film-F/X

4/10/13 10:11:17 PM#9

You also have to consider the possibility that folks, speaking from personal experience, are much more comfortable building and maintaining a machine on their own and upgrading it when needed.

Back in the day there was much of the population buying a PC for the first time,indicating sales... then having no need to buy another one for quite some time because they don't have a need for an upgrade unless the old one broke. Think of the legions of average users, soccer moms and the like, who don't to anything other than Facebook and email, no need to buy a computer ever again unless it goes kaput.

Consider too that many writers just have to push an article out to their editor to make deadline and keep their jobs, so yeah...

The scary part is one day the world will be run by adults who were never spanked as kids and got trophies just for participating.

  kadepsyson

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/15/06
Posts: 1964

The doctors say his chances are 50/50...but there's only a 10% chance of that.

4/10/13 10:16:32 PM#10
Originally posted by strangepowers

You also have to consider the possibility that folks, speaking from personal experience, are much more comfortable building and maintaining a machine on their own and upgrading it when needed.

Back in the day there was much of the population buying a PC for the first time,indicating sales... then having no need to buy another one for quite some time because they don't have a need for an upgrade unless the old one broke. Think of the legions of average users, soccer moms and the like, who don't to anything other than Facebook and email, no need to buy a computer ever again unless it goes kaput.

Consider too that many writers just have to push an article out to their editor to make deadline and keep their jobs, so yeah...

I hope the Apple philosophy of upgrading a computer doesn't become the norm.

"Oh, you need a bigger hard drive?  Just throw your Mac in the garbage, and buy a new one!  It's easy!"

El Psy Congroo

  Lawlmonster

Advanced Member

Joined: 10/07/09
Posts: 916

Take my advice, I'm not using it anyway.

4/10/13 10:18:32 PM#11
I don't understand why anyone would make the argument that any generation of gaming console could make personal computers obsolete, without allowing the freedom and capabilities a PC provides, particularly regarding customization of hardware. I can't run any number of music services, browser based or propietary software, in the background of a game I'm playing, which comes with a number of player created modifications or software enhancements, while being capable of tabbing or switching over to another open piece of software to check the news or this site, using a console. In combination with the capabilities PC owners have to build their own preformance, and the selection of hardware itself almost immediately outdating any console as soon as it's released, personal computers aren't going anywhere in the foreseeable future.

"This is life! We suffer and slave and expire. That's it!" -Bernard Black (Dylan Moran)

  Falice

Novice Member

Joined: 8/14/08
Posts: 329

 
OP  4/10/13 10:25:24 PM#12

Listen I'm not for the PC dieing, I just see it in the tea-leaves. I love the PC, I want it to be around - but honestly folks we're a minority. More and more people are abondoning the PC in droves, it used to be a necessity - it is no longer a "need to have".

Regarding consoles, they were never able to keep pace with PC's, I'm 37 so I would know. But this generation of consoles held its ground pretty well... I know that PC's evolve faster, but even with the higher technincal specs, this current gen held its ground. These devices are dedicated for games, all of that power is focused on basically one job.

Just saying is all.

  Robokapp

Elite Member

Joined: 11/15/09
Posts: 4157

The only luck I had today was to have you as my opponent.

4/10/13 10:30:05 PM#13

will the cubicle die along with the PC ? ill we conduct business on our cell phones ?

 

because there's a regular phone in my office...sitting there on my desk. Why do we need one of those when we have cell phones ?

 

 

  kadepsyson

Hard Core Member

Joined: 5/15/06
Posts: 1964

The doctors say his chances are 50/50...but there's only a 10% chance of that.

4/10/13 10:31:32 PM#14
Originally posted by Falice

Listen I'm not for the PC dieing, I just see it in the tea-leaves. I love the PC, I want it to be around - but honestly folks we're a minority. More and more people are abondoning the PC in droves, it used to be a necessity - it is no longer a "need to have".

Regarding consoles, they were never able to keep pace with PC's, I'm 37 so I would know. But this generation of consoles held its ground pretty well... I know that PC's evolve faster, but even with the higher technincal specs, this current gen held its ground. These devices are dedicated for games, all of that power is focused on basically one job.

Just saying is all.

When NASA announces they're no longer going to use computers, but just handle everything required to design and launch manned space missions using their iPhone, then, and only then, will I believe you.

 

Until then, it's laughable.

 

Sure, I don't need a PC to browse Facebook, but to think they will just become replaced by phones and tablets is a stunningly simple way of looking at things.

 

Buy a new brand of tea.

El Psy Congroo

  gigat

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/24/10
Posts: 597

4/10/13 10:34:42 PM#15

You cannot develop a video game on a gaming console.  Even if you could, you would be doing it on inferior hardware that can't be easily upgraded.  Without a PC, you will not have video games to play on your gaming console.

The fact that PC sales are low does not indicate that PCs aren't being used.  It indicates that PCs are becoming more reliable, powerful, and less necessary to constantly upgrade or replace.

Also, you will have a difficult time developing mobile apps from a cell phone.  The popularity of mobile apps only increases the need for PCs... unless you plan on writing code with a virtual touch keyboard on a 4 inch screen.

  aRtFuLThinG

Apprentice Member

Joined: 4/30/09
Posts: 1000

4/10/13 10:35:20 PM#16
Originally posted by kadepsyson

They will not be replaced in our lifetime.

 Probably won't, ever.

We may see computers or computer-like devices becoming increasingly portable, however the modularity and options will probably not decrease, but increase with time - because at the end of the day it is more cost effective to both the consumer and the manufacturer to provide modularity for generic devices to allow customer for whatever functions that they want.

Even PDAs are  modular - it is just modular in it's function by going the applications route rather than the hardware route.

 

If anything the trend seem to indicate the opposite of what the OP says - the delicated system for specific function seems to be a dying breed. With the increasing computing power, there seems to be no need for delicate machines or thin clients - all you need is a low cost client that is powerful enough for customising on the end user level. And with the advent of emulation, VMWare virtualization and other thin clienting applications such as Citrix the need for delicated machines becomes even less necessary. People would want MORE generic devices instead so they can support virtualization and remote clients.

  Robokapp

Elite Member

Joined: 11/15/09
Posts: 4157

The only luck I had today was to have you as my opponent.

4/10/13 10:39:38 PM#17
Originally posted by kadepsyson
Originally posted by Falice

Listen I'm not for the PC dieing, I just see it in the tea-leaves. I love the PC, I want it to be around - but honestly folks we're a minority. More and more people are abondoning the PC in droves, it used to be a necessity - it is no longer a "need to have".

Regarding consoles, they were never able to keep pace with PC's, I'm 37 so I would know. But this generation of consoles held its ground pretty well... I know that PC's evolve faster, but even with the higher technincal specs, this current gen held its ground. These devices are dedicated for games, all of that power is focused on basically one job.

Just saying is all.

When NASA announces they're no longer going to use computers, but just handle everything required to design and launch manned space missions using their iPhone, then, and only then, will I believe you.

 

Until then, it's laughable.

I bet a scientific calculator can beat the pentiums that computed the moon landing... perhpas a weak example ?

  gigat

Advanced Member

Joined: 6/24/10
Posts: 597

4/10/13 10:55:48 PM#18
Originally posted by Falice

Listen I'm not for the PC dieing, I just see it in the tea-leaves. I love the PC, I want it to be around - but honestly folks we're a minority. More and more people are abondoning the PC in droves, it used to be a necessity - it is no longer a "need to have".

Regarding consoles, they were never able to keep pace with PC's, I'm 37 so I would know. But this generation of consoles held its ground pretty well... I know that PC's evolve faster, but even with the higher technincal specs, this current gen held its ground. These devices are dedicated for games, all of that power is focused on basically one job.

Just saying is all.

You are very wrong.

People need computers more than ever.  Some people might not need direct use of a computer, but most technology they use (video games, smartphones, tablets) is 100% dependent on computers.

The more people who use technology, means more people need computers to develop that technology.  I don't care if the technology fits in your pocket, sits on your entertainment center, or hangs on the wall... someone needed a computer to develop that technology.

 

Many consumers don't need direct use of computers, I'll give you that.  But if those consumers wish to use any technology, then they'll be indirectly relying upon the use of computers.

  User Deleted
4/10/13 10:59:00 PM#19
Originally posted by Falice

I mentioned sometime ago that I thought/guessed that PC's are a dieing breed. Current gen consoles were able to keep up pretty well with PC's, next gen will do even better - and tablets/phones will become more powerful... I really think PC's are going the way of the VCR.

http://m.ign.com/articles/2013/04/10/pc-shipments-mark-biggest-decline-in-nearly-20-years

It's equilibrium, as computing power spreads to other formats so games will follow. However as others have pointed out, the PC has features and uniqueness that still merit it as a viable device. The keyboard & mouse combo is still a powerful enough feature to keep gaming on the PC around for a while yet. MMORPGs & God games are difficult to implement well on consoles and they dont look like disappearing any time soon.

  Quizzical

Guide

Joined: 12/11/08
Posts: 12778

4/11/13 12:00:11 AM#20

First of all, no, mobile devices will not catch desktops in performance, barring some unforeseen revolution in technology.  Think transistors replacing vacuum tubes big; the routine advances that give Moore's Law a reprieve for a few more years won't do it.

Mobile devices are limited by power, not transistor count.  If power savings continue to scale with die shrinks roughly as it has in recent years, that means that you can double your performance about every four years or so.  At that rate, we may see a cell phone with graphics that can match what a GeForce GTX Titan can do today sometime around 2040.  It's not likely that Moore's Law will survive that long, as it would require process nodes that manipulate matter at a subatomic level without making the radical chemistry changes that splitting atoms is known to have.  Quantum mechanics would wreak havoc well before we get there, anyway.

Furthermore, even that is a highly optimistic view, as even if Moore's Law survives, there is reason to believe that power savings from die shrinks may well slow down.  I don't remember the source, but a bigwig at one company that makes mobile chips recently said something to the effect that a straight die shrink to 14 nm would only yield about a 20% power savings as compared to 28 nm, not 50%.  If that's accurate and going to be the norm from here on, then cell phones catch today's GeForce GTX Titan sometime around 2100.  Even if we could figure out how to make chips that use individual electrons as fully-functional transistors (which isn't likely), Moore's Law wouldn't survive nearly that long.

-----

But let's ignore that.  In fact, for the sake of argument, let's assume that in the near future, cell phones will offer the same performance as desktops, and that it will stay that way forever.  Maybe someone discovers some unobtainium with some miracle properties that makes computer chips not burn meaningful amounts of power or some such.

Would that be the end of desktops?  Hardly.  The desktop form factor offers real advantages.

Some people need to type a lot.  For that, there's no substitute for a real, full-sized desktop keyboard.  A laptop isn't nearly as good, and a cell phone or pure tablet (as opposed to a detachable) is a complete non-starter.

Some people need a lot of monitor space to get work done.  For monitor space, there's no substitute for a desktop with monitors large enough that you can't accidentally misplace and lose them.  Or better yet, two or three such monitors.

Some people value reliability.  Desktops win by a mile there.  Anything that you can do to make a cell phone more reliable, you can also do to make a desktop more reliable.  But the opposite is not true; ever try to repair a cell phone that had one component break?  Ever drop a desktop case while the computer was running?

While some purposes need mobility, there are also purposes where a lack of mobility is an advantage.  Desktops are harder to steal than cell phones, and for some purposes, that matters.

Some people like to use a keyboard and mouse to play games.  Ever try doing that on a cell phone?  What you can do with games for a cell phone is a lot more limited than for desktops because of the limited input options.

-----

The declining sales of new desktops are not because no one uses desktops anymore.  Rather, they're because fewer people see the need to replace their old desktop by a new one.  If desktops last twice as long as they used to and there are the same number in use everywhere, then that will cut new desktop sales in half.

One of the attractions of manufacturing chips for cell phones and tablets is precisely because they have such short lifetimes, which means that buyers need to buy something new once again very often.  That's a big deal if you manufacture processors.  But from a consumer perspective, it's a reason to stay with desktops.

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