Originally posted by eyelolled
So if the initial rush at launch equates into 2 million, and the four months after the first made up the next 1 million, than we should be seeing the 6 million mark by the end of 2013. Mind you, things will probably slow down a bit more, but even if it's only 4 or 5 million individual accounts, that's still great.

That would be true if you didn't have brand new MMOs scheduled for release this year. I'm thinking 4 million by the end of the year, but because it is B2P, its still possible to hit 6 million, but all we can do at this point is speculate.

Originally posted by IPolygon
Why are you guys still attacking the numbers reported by xfire when no one said xfire is about the numbers, but the trends in pc gaming? Try to prove that xfire trends are no pc gaming trends, if you want to attack the topic at hand. Currently some of you guys are just ignorant of what is actually the topic here and keep spinning in circles.

The only people that really need to look at the XFire charts are those that don't own the game.

What did I see in my GW2 experience?

Huge packs of players during 3-day headstart, a small surge diuring 1-day headstart and a bigger surge at launch date.

The population spread and dwindle a bit.

In the Halloween and lost shores brought a ton of people (and you could clearly see the surge of the invitee playersin the starter areas).

Since that time and with December the numbers of players have be climbing up.

Sincerely I don't think XFire reflected the intensity of players joining in November and December I've experienced.

If all you want to say is "population went down", "population went up", "population is stable", sure XFire can track those tendencies.

But quantify those tendencies?

Nope.

And that is what many people have been trying to do with XFire, translating into number of players, % of retention and whatnot.

Among the many reasons why xfire isn't a reliable source to evaluate a game's population and/or success, there's one which is pretty obvious and doesn't even require "stat 101" but just a working brain and basic logic.

The number of hours played and the number of people playing is irrelevant if the total population is unknown and can change.

Using total fictive numbers here for the sake of demonstration:

Let's say last January, there were 50.000 total xfire users(*), and 10% of them played WoW for 5 hours a day on average, which makes 5.000 people playing 25.000 hours.

During the year, the number of xfire users drops, for whatever reason. For instance, more and more similar tools are released, also free, and several which are more reliable, simple to use, and of better quality... and also some which don't spy on you and your gaming time... ;-)

This January, there's only 30.000 xfire users (*) left, still 10% playing WoW for 5 hours a day... which makes 3.000 people playing 15.000 hours.

Does this mean WoW's population dropped by 40%?

Of course not. There's still 10% of xfire users playing WoW. WoW's population didn't change.

And that's not the only parameter... specially for people playing MMORPGs, who don't really need stuff like xfire.

xfire is a totally unreliable and meaningless source, and people using it to assess the success or failure of a game need to learn basic logic. But then, I doubt they ever intended to be logic, it's more about bashing a game, and that's a sport where logic doesn't have its place ;)

(*) by "users", I mean active users, those who have the tool installed and run it, and not just people who have an account on that site but no longer use the tool since a long time (like e.g. me, who tried it years ago but uninstalled it after a week or so). And there's NO way to know how many of those active users exist... making the use of xfire as base for any long term game population estimations total nonsense.

Originally posted by Eir_S
X-Fire again?  lol  Who even uses it?

People who need meaningless numbers to bash a game... people who don't care about logic, since logic wouldn't allow them to reach their goal... that kind of people, you see what I mean? ;-)

Originally posted by Jean_Luc_Picard

Originally posted by Eir_S
X-Fire again?  lol  Who even uses it?

People who need meaningless numbers to bash a game... people who don't care about logic, since logic wouldn't allow them to reach their goal... that kind of people, you see what I mean? ;-)

It's not a reliable source of "numbers", and it never has been.  Not for any game.  Apart from that, the program isn't even that well made.  I had it installed for a very short time before I wanted its unsightly presence removed from my pc. 

The best numbers to judge GW2's success is still 3 million.  People will balk and cry "retention", but the solid facts are that there are plenty of people playing the game, and it's following GW1 into the best seller list.  Again, who cares about shitty X-Fire?

Originally posted by Eir_S

It's not a reliable source of "numbers", and it never has been.  Not for any game.  Apart from that, the program isn't even that well made.  I had it installed for a very short time before I wanted its unsightly presence removed from my pc. 

I had the same experience with that tool. Kept it for like a week, and then nuked it into oblivion.

Thing is, they still keep your account on their website, and you are still counted in the 22 million or so users listed on the first page of their site, even if you don't use the tool anymore for years. I doubt the number of active users is 10%, or even just 5% of that number, since they never delete accounts. And since there's no way to know that, xfire numbers are useless for any statistic purposes or assessment of a game's population, except for personal statistics about one's own game play time of course.

I use Xfire and it has its problems, but it works better than Raptr and other similar tools, and does everything all in one.

If you believe GW2 has 3 million players then you should believe Xfire has 22 million users. it is the same thing.

22 million or so people who have used Xfire may or may not now use it

3 million people who have bought GW2 may or may not now play it.

Xfire is the best guide for PLAYERS, and is better than assuming it still has the 3 mllion purchasers, but it does not show EXACT numbers, and that is what the main problem is

Originally posted by Jean_Luc_Picard

This January, there's only 30.000 xfire users (*) left, still 10% playing WoW for 5 hours a day... which makes 3.000 people playing 15.000 hours.

Does this mean WoW's population dropped by 40%?

Of course not. There's still 10% of xfire users playing WoW. WoW's population didn't change.

And that's not the only parameter... specially for people playing MMORPGs, who don't really need stuff like xfire.

beyond your example,  this actually happened

Xfire WOW Jan 2012 players - 20,600

http://eu.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/3269838728

Xfire WOW Jan 2013 players - 5,600

http://beta.xfire.com/games/wow

Xfire is not a good tool for predicting population trends

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by Jean_Luc_Picard

This January, there's only 30.000 xfire users (*) left, still 10% playing WoW for 5 hours a day... which makes 3.000 people playing 15.000 hours.

Does this mean WoW's population dropped by 40%?

Of course not. There's still 10% of xfire users playing WoW. WoW's population didn't change.

And that's not the only parameter... specially for people playing MMORPGs, who don't really need stuff like xfire.

beyond your example,  this actually happened

 

Xfire WOW Jan 2012 players - 20,600

http://eu.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/3269838728

Xfire WOW Jan 2013 players - 5,600

http://beta.xfire.com/games/wow

 

Xfire is not a good tool for predicting population trends

Was there a patch or maintenance in WoW on Jan 11th?

Was Jan 6th sunday?

Was Dec 30 sunday?

Was Dec 23 sunday?

Dec 16?

Originally posted by superniceguy

I use Xfire and it has its problems, but it works better than Raptr and other similar tools, and does everything all in one.

If you believe GW2 has 3 million players then you should believe Xfire has 22 million users. it is the same thing.

22 million or so people who have used Xfire may or may not now use it

3 million people who have bought GW2 may or may not now play it.

Xfire is the best guide for PLAYERS, and is better than assuming it still has the 3 mllion purchasers, but it does not show EXACT numbers, and that is what the main problem is

 

 

GW2 has 3 million purchasers and has 3 million potential users at any time.

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by superniceguy

I use Xfire and it has its problems, but it works better than Raptr and other similar tools, and does everything all in one.

If you believe GW2 has 3 million players then you should believe Xfire has 22 million users. it is the same thing.

22 million or so people who have used Xfire may or may not now use it

3 million people who have bought GW2 may or may not now play it.

Xfire is the best guide for PLAYERS, and is better than assuming it still has the 3 mllion purchasers, but it does not show EXACT numbers, and that is what the main problem is

 

 

GW2 has 3 million purchasers and has 3 million potential users at any time.

Yeah same with Xfire, although 22 million, and has more potential for more, as it is free.

On that theory SWTOR has the potential for more than 2.5 million players, considering people can play it without paying anything, and chances are the people playing it now are more likely not the 2 million that quit before F2P, but the remaining 8 million potentail WOW players who sat on the fence at its release

Xfire stats are not accurate but they are closer estimate than the 3 million figure

Originally posted by superniceguy

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by superniceguy

I use Xfire and it has its problems, but it works better than Raptr and other similar tools, and does everything all in one.

If you believe GW2 has 3 million players then you should believe Xfire has 22 million users. it is the same thing.

22 million or so people who have used Xfire may or may not now use it

3 million people who have bought GW2 may or may not now play it.

Xfire is the best guide for PLAYERS, and is better than assuming it still has the 3 mllion purchasers, but it does not show EXACT numbers, and that is what the main problem is

 

 

GW2 has 3 million purchasers and has 3 million potential users at any time.

Yeah same with Xfire, although 22 million, and has more potential for more, as it is free.

On that theory SWTOR has the potential for more than 2.5 million players, considering people can play it without paying anything, and chances are the people playing it now are more likely not the 2 million that quit before F2P, but the remaining 8 million potentail WOW players who sat on the fence at its release

Xfire stats are not accurate but they are closer estimate than the 3 million figure

You mean 3000 players?

Or 2/3 of WoW population?

Or 20% of 3 millions?

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

You mean 3000 players?

Or 2/3 of WoW population?

Or 20% of 3 millions?

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by superniceguy

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by superniceguy

I use Xfire and it has its problems, but it works better than Raptr and other similar tools, and does everything all in one.

If you believe GW2 has 3 million players then you should believe Xfire has 22 million users. it is the same thing.

22 million or so people who have used Xfire may or may not now use it

3 million people who have bought GW2 may or may not now play it.

Xfire is the best guide for PLAYERS, and is better than assuming it still has the 3 mllion purchasers, but it does not show EXACT numbers, and that is what the main problem is

 

 

GW2 has 3 million purchasers and has 3 million potential users at any time.

Yeah same with Xfire, although 22 million, and has more potential for more, as it is free.

On that theory SWTOR has the potential for more than 2.5 million players, considering people can play it without paying anything, and chances are the people playing it now are more likely not the 2 million that quit before F2P, but the remaining 8 million potentail WOW players who sat on the fence at its release

Xfire stats are not accurate but they are closer estimate than the 3 million figure

You mean 3000 players?

Or 2/3 of WoW population?

Or 20% of 3 millions?

 

You obviosuly do not know how to read it

It certainly does not have 3000 players, and if you think that is what we are saying then no wonder you think it is not any good

Originally posted by superniceguy

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by superniceguy

Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

Originally posted by superniceguy

I use Xfire and it has its problems, but it works better than Raptr and other similar tools, and does everything all in one.

If you believe GW2 has 3 million players then you should believe Xfire has 22 million users. it is the same thing.

22 million or so people who have used Xfire may or may not now use it

3 million people who have bought GW2 may or may not now play it.

Xfire is the best guide for PLAYERS, and is better than assuming it still has the 3 mllion purchasers, but it does not show EXACT numbers, and that is what the main problem is

 

 

GW2 has 3 million purchasers and has 3 million potential users at any time.

Yeah same with Xfire, although 22 million, and has more potential for more, as it is free.

On that theory SWTOR has the potential for more than 2.5 million players, considering people can play it without paying anything, and chances are the people playing it now are more likely not the 2 million that quit before F2P, but the remaining 8 million potentail WOW players who sat on the fence at its release

Xfire stats are not accurate but they are closer estimate than the 3 million figure

You mean 3000 players?

Or 2/3 of WoW population?

Or 20% of 3 millions?

 

You obviosuly do not know how to read it

It certainly does not have 3000 players, and if you think that is what we are saying then no wonder you think it is not any good

So do you have a number (or a range) or is your number "not 3 millions"?

And if you have a number what is your base to derive it?