As 2013 dawns, many of us take a look ahead and speculate about what is to come, something akin to looking into the crystal ball. In The Free Zone today, we take a look at a few topics that are sure to be big discussion items throughout 2013. Check it out!

As I write this, a couple of days still remain in what has been yet another very interesting year in the global MMOG space. This makes it pretty easy to do some form of retrospective or look forward. As it happens, some of the things on my mind these days take the form of questions involving aspects of both the past 12 months and the future. 

Read more of Richard Aihoshi's The Free Zone: Some Year-End Wondering.

What will the Old Republic's full impact on the market and the industry be?

The game flopped.  It's switch to the P2W business model is just to cover maintence costs, and to finish whatever content they had been working on before release. 

Of course these are just my opinions:

TOR will affect the industry in how it gets big backing.  I think studios and publishers saw a limit to the value of high budget flash versus the risk involved.  I don't think its transition to Freemium will affect the rest of the industry at all.

Subscription Free and B2P - This is the new F2P.  Since there are so many ways to setup a cash shop and blend it with free access or sub-only, there are also many ways a sub-free game can present itself.  Traditionally we've had F2P and then Sub-Only.  With B2P showing success for GW2 and possibly TSW (time will tell), it has shown other sub-free publishers that they can charge an up front fee for greater access to the game, guaranteeing an initial revenue bump along with the cash shop supplement.  It has also shown at least one sub-only publisher that they can bring in a larger audience and generate more revenue with that option while still offering a subscription and premium status for an additional fee.

One of my biggest curiousities over the next year or so will be how subscription only games fare.  I think Trion should be a clear warning marker for the makers of ESO and FFXIV.  Rift: Storm Legion was popular, especially with the dedicated fans, but even with modest pricing didn't seem to make the splash and generate the success that was anticipated.  I think if Trion had moved over to B2P with an optional sub and cash shop they would have been much more successful.  I think this will be true for ESO and FFXIV (and Wildstar or whatever else is coming out as sub-only).  Those games will likely see some measure of success just for the IP and existing fanbase, but will be limiting their potential, potential that could be realized through a more hybrid payment option like you described in an earlier column.

In order for the hybrid models to succeed they will have to overcome a tricky hurdle.  That is they need to make subscription players feel like they're playing a sub game with all the benefits while offering a play experience for the sub-free cash shop player that doesn't funnel them into a subscription or place them at a permanent disadvantage.  They need to do all that while pricing themselves competitvely yet maximizing revenue.  It's not an easy position to be in.

One thing I expect to see is a blending of revenue models, continuing to muddy and blur the clean definitions we've established.  I also expect to see a slow move away from traditional fees across all publishers as they try and implement the more complex models I described.

I didn't mean to be so long winded, but some topics here can't be captured in 3 word soundbites.

Originally posted by Torvaldr

Of course these are just my opinions:

TOR will affect the industry in how it gets big backing.  I think studios and publishers saw a limit to the value of high budget flash versus the risk involved.  I don't think its transition to Freemium will affect the rest of the industry at all.

Subscription Free and B2P - This is the new F2P.  Since there are so many ways to setup a cash shop and blend it with free access or sub-only, there are also many ways a sub-free game can present itself.  Traditionally we've had F2P and then Sub-Only.  With B2P showing success for GW2 and possibly TSW (time will tell), it has shown other sub-free publishers that they can charge an up front fee for greater access to the game, guaranteeing an initial revenue bump along with the cash shop supplement.  It has also shown at least one sub-only publisher that they can bring in a larger audience and generate more revenue with that option while still offering a subscription and premium status for an additional fee.

One of my biggest curiousities over the next year or so will be how subscription only games fare.  I think Trion should be a clear warning marker for the makers of ESO and FFXIV.  Rift: Storm Legion was popular, especially with the dedicated fans, but even with modest pricing didn't seem to make the splash and generate the success that was anticipated.  I think if Trion had moved over to B2P with an optional sub and cash shop they would have been much more successful.  I think this will be true for ESO and FFXIV (and Wildstar or whatever else is coming out as sub-only).  Those games will likely see some measure of success just for the IP and existing fanbase, but will be limiting their potential, potential that could be realized through a more hybrid payment option like you described in an earlier column.

In order for the hybrid models to succeed they will have to overcome a tricky hurdle.  That is they need to make subscription players feel like they're playing a sub game with all the benefits while offering a play experience for the sub-free cash shop player that doesn't funnel them into a subscription or place them at a permanent disadvantage.  They need to do all that while pricing themselves competitvely yet maximizing revenue.  It's not an easy position to be in.

One thing I expect to see is a blending of revenue models, continuing to muddy and blur the clean definitions we've established.  I also expect to see a slow move away from traditional fees across all publishers as they try and implement the more complex models I described.

I didn't mean to be so long winded, but some topics here can't be captured in 3 word soundbites.

As to Trion, there was nothing modest about the Storm Legion pricing, at $50 it was well above the norm for expansions.  It is not a wonder it did not do as well as some thought it would.    You should look at Lotro's hybrid, it is pretty similar to what you are describing.  We will see more hybrid models, but I don't think that the sololy subscription game is finished either.  

I do not think you need huge amounts of money to make a MMO.  SWTOR and the failed 38 studios adventure were examples of projects with little fiscal control.  Both studios were so into fluff like voice overs, cut scenes which don't add cashflow to a game.  How 38 studios thought they needed 400 people for a MMO is ludicrous.  You can make a decent MMO today with far less people, mainly because the tools are so much better.   If you think about it, both studios had little experience in MMO design at the upper levels.  Add in no one watching expenditures verses financing and you have a receipe for disasters.  The only thing that saved SWTOR was EA's deep pockets, which I am sure they regret now.

When it comes to LucasArts, who knows what direction the new owner will take them.  Could be they will get into the MMO business themselves.

RE: SWTOR: Did you see this thread in The Pub: Theme Park Trap ? EA-Bioware & 38-Studios spent tons of crafted content = most expensive area/best way to push the dev budget up.

On Kickstarter: eg Topia Online - sandbox lower budget, more niche, and other sandboxes - dedication of players - better fit for a sub maybe?

Originally posted by Ozmodan

Originally posted by Torvaldr

Of course these are just my opinions:

TOR will affect the industry in how it gets big backing.  I think studios and publishers saw a limit to the value of high budget flash versus the risk involved.  I don't think its transition to Freemium will affect the rest of the industry at all.

Subscription Free and B2P - This is the new F2P.  Since there are so many ways to setup a cash shop and blend it with free access or sub-only, there are also many ways a sub-free game can present itself.  Traditionally we've had F2P and then Sub-Only.  With B2P showing success for GW2 and possibly TSW (time will tell), it has shown other sub-free publishers that they can charge an up front fee for greater access to the game, guaranteeing an initial revenue bump along with the cash shop supplement.  It has also shown at least one sub-only publisher that they can bring in a larger audience and generate more revenue with that option while still offering a subscription and premium status for an additional fee.

One of my biggest curiousities over the next year or so will be how subscription only games fare.  I think Trion should be a clear warning marker for the makers of ESO and FFXIV.  Rift: Storm Legion was popular, especially with the dedicated fans, but even with modest pricing didn't seem to make the splash and generate the success that was anticipated.  I think if Trion had moved over to B2P with an optional sub and cash shop they would have been much more successful.  I think this will be true for ESO and FFXIV (and Wildstar or whatever else is coming out as sub-only).  Those games will likely see some measure of success just for the IP and existing fanbase, but will be limiting their potential, potential that could be realized through a more hybrid payment option like you described in an earlier column.

In order for the hybrid models to succeed they will have to overcome a tricky hurdle.  That is they need to make subscription players feel like they're playing a sub game with all the benefits while offering a play experience for the sub-free cash shop player that doesn't funnel them into a subscription or place them at a permanent disadvantage.  They need to do all that while pricing themselves competitvely yet maximizing revenue.  It's not an easy position to be in.

One thing I expect to see is a blending of revenue models, continuing to muddy and blur the clean definitions we've established.  I also expect to see a slow move away from traditional fees across all publishers as they try and implement the more complex models I described.

I didn't mean to be so long winded, but some topics here can't be captured in 3 word soundbites.

As to Trion, there was nothing modest about the Storm Legion pricing, at $50 it was well above the norm for expansions.  It is not a wonder it did not do as well as some thought it would.    You should look at Lotro's hybrid, it is pretty similar to what you are describing.  We will see more hybrid models, but I don't think that the sololy subscription game is finished either.  

I do not think you need huge amounts of money to make a MMO.  SWTOR and the failed 38 studios adventure were examples of projects with little fiscal control.  Both studios were so into fluff like voice overs, cut scenes which don't add cashflow to a game.  How 38 studios thought they needed 400 people for a MMO is ludicrous.  You can make a decent MMO today with far less people, mainly because the tools are so much better.   If you think about it, both studios had little experience in MMO design at the upper levels.  Add in no one watching expenditures verses financing and you have a receipe for disasters.  The only thing that saved SWTOR was EA's deep pockets, which I am sure they regret now.

When it comes to LucasArts, who knows what direction the new owner will take them.  Could be they will get into the MMO business themselves.

The 49.99 version was for the base game plus the xpac.  For those that already owned the game, it was the traditional 39.99, at least everywhere I saw it (gamestop, amazon, etc.).

Originally posted by niceguy3978

Originally posted by Ozmodan

Originally posted by Torvaldr

Of course these are just my opinions:

TOR will affect the industry in how it gets big backing.  I think studios and publishers saw a limit to the value of high budget flash versus the risk involved.  I don't think its transition to Freemium will affect the rest of the industry at all.

Subscription Free and B2P - This is the new F2P.  Since there are so many ways to setup a cash shop and blend it with free access or sub-only, there are also many ways a sub-free game can present itself.  Traditionally we've had F2P and then Sub-Only.  With B2P showing success for GW2 and possibly TSW (time will tell), it has shown other sub-free publishers that they can charge an up front fee for greater access to the game, guaranteeing an initial revenue bump along with the cash shop supplement.  It has also shown at least one sub-only publisher that they can bring in a larger audience and generate more revenue with that option while still offering a subscription and premium status for an additional fee.

One of my biggest curiousities over the next year or so will be how subscription only games fare.  I think Trion should be a clear warning marker for the makers of ESO and FFXIV.  Rift: Storm Legion was popular, especially with the dedicated fans, but even with modest pricing didn't seem to make the splash and generate the success that was anticipated.  I think if Trion had moved over to B2P with an optional sub and cash shop they would have been much more successful.  I think this will be true for ESO and FFXIV (and Wildstar or whatever else is coming out as sub-only).  Those games will likely see some measure of success just for the IP and existing fanbase, but will be limiting their potential, potential that could be realized through a more hybrid payment option like you described in an earlier column.

In order for the hybrid models to succeed they will have to overcome a tricky hurdle.  That is they need to make subscription players feel like they're playing a sub game with all the benefits while offering a play experience for the sub-free cash shop player that doesn't funnel them into a subscription or place them at a permanent disadvantage.  They need to do all that while pricing themselves competitvely yet maximizing revenue.  It's not an easy position to be in.

One thing I expect to see is a blending of revenue models, continuing to muddy and blur the clean definitions we've established.  I also expect to see a slow move away from traditional fees across all publishers as they try and implement the more complex models I described.

I didn't mean to be so long winded, but some topics here can't be captured in 3 word soundbites.

As to Trion, there was nothing modest about the Storm Legion pricing, at $50 it was well above the norm for expansions.  It is not a wonder it did not do as well as some thought it would.    You should look at Lotro's hybrid, it is pretty similar to what you are describing.  We will see more hybrid models, but I don't think that the sololy subscription game is finished either.  

I do not think you need huge amounts of money to make a MMO.  SWTOR and the failed 38 studios adventure were examples of projects with little fiscal control.  Both studios were so into fluff like voice overs, cut scenes which don't add cashflow to a game.  How 38 studios thought they needed 400 people for a MMO is ludicrous.  You can make a decent MMO today with far less people, mainly because the tools are so much better.   If you think about it, both studios had little experience in MMO design at the upper levels.  Add in no one watching expenditures verses financing and you have a receipe for disasters.  The only thing that saved SWTOR was EA's deep pockets, which I am sure they regret now.

When it comes to LucasArts, who knows what direction the new owner will take them.  Could be they will get into the MMO business themselves.

The 49.99 version was for the base game plus the xpac.  For those that already owned the game, it was the traditional 39.99, at least everywhere I saw it (gamestop, amazon, etc.).

Storm Legion actually sold far more than Trion were expecting.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-11-14-rift-storm-legion-early-sales-beyond-expectations-says-trion

That being said it will be interesting to see if they move to another model this year.

most of the crowd funding games have flopped in getting the actual cash. I only know of one that got double of what they were asking and that was star citizen.

As far as swtor looks they failed.

I think Zynga's anouncement of the closure of thirteen games is a taste of what is to come.

I can see massive F2P--and even some P2P--closures.

The author said: "Given the time required to make even a small MMOG, it seems unlikely we'll actually see a crowdfunded one reach the market in 2013."

Actually, I know of two MMORPGs that were funded in 2012 with 2013 release dates: Shadowrun Online and The Repopulation. Now, whether they make those dates is another matter :)