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The Pub at MMORPG.COM  » XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

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297 posts found
  madazz

Apprentice Member

Joined: 10/07/03
Posts: 1300

12/26/12 11:16:34 AM#41
Originally posted by Pivotelite
Originally posted by Jonnas13

8 people have walked past my window in the last hour. From that I can deduce that the town I live in has 55k population. The facts prove it!

Sadly this is more likely to be accurate than the usual x-fire numbers and MMO population bullshit.

Trying to take a tiny sample of a skewed pool and applying to a broad spectrum is inherantly flawed.

 Based on hours played from most populated to least it goes...

 

WoW, GW2, SW:TOR, Aion, EvE, TSW, Rift, TERA then like 50 dead MMOs after that.

 

That seems pretty accurate to me... it gives a general idea, a pretty good one for the most part IMO. It always has shown trands, when a game is gaining players or losing players. Every event GW2s numbers shoot up, F2P SWTORs shot up, B2P TSWs shot up. And they all remain in a realistic position based on their playersbase relative to the other MMOs.

Accurate if you are calculating xfire uses. Statistics don't work that way. I could explain on here, but I feel everyone reading this thread should probably read up on how you properly get stats. I feel those that trust xfire as a reliable source would change their minds without hesitation with a little bit of education.

  niceguy3978

Elite Member

Joined: 6/14/06
Posts: 1981

12/26/12 11:18:07 AM#42
Originally posted by botrytis
Originally posted by grimal

Here's an idea...

let's not discuss whether XFire is accurate or not and just for the sake of discussion, assume it is.  So, now that we got that out of the way, let's talk  about numbers.

Remember, we are just "pretending" XFire is accurate, so no need to chime in and say how it isn't.

 

I already did - what % of say WoW players use XFire (how about any game for that matter) - can you tell me? If not, it is a useless tool, period.

Knowing the % of the population is  unneccessary for statistical purposes, the fact that it is a self-selected sample is the real problem and is why it is useless to compare games based on x-fire.  This isn't a problem though for looking at trends within the game.  As long as you have about 400 or more people using the tool you will get a margine of error of about 5.5% which is reasonable when discussing trends.

  Cecropia

Gumshoe

Joined: 3/06/09
Posts: 3256

Poacher killer.

12/26/12 11:26:39 AM#43
Originally posted by erictlewis

 


Originally posted by botrytis

Originally posted by Zalmon
I agree - we have discussed this AD NAUSEUM!! XFire IS NOT a good tool for populations. we don't know the % of players for each game using it - some maybe 0% some may be 100%. It is not useful at all. Only if you know the EXACT % of players of a particular game using XFire, then it may be useful. Otherwise, it is just a measure of XFire users.

 

I agree every few weeks we get this topic yet again.

It takes a long time for many folks around here to absorb anything. The reality of XFire's numbers seems to be ever elusive, though. Just report the thread (I won't as I'm done reporting people to the mods of this site).

They do not allow XFire threads on mmorpg.com anymore, and for good reason. Super nerds are not representative of the average gamer, therefore XFire's numbers are essentially useless.

"Chuck's a good fighter but he's a UFC fighter... this is Pride." - Quinton Rampage Jackson
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb

  sfc1971

Hard Core Member

Joined: 10/05/08
Posts: 423

12/26/12 11:28:37 AM#44

I have never installed Xfire and never will and in general think those kind of tools are for tools. Yet I play MMO's. So how do you count me?

You can't use these kind of statistics because you have no way to correlate them to anything. If a game happens to be popular with the Xfire type person then how do you compare that with a game that doesn't attract that type of crowd?

For that matter, you can't even judge it in one type of game, what if people who use Xfire are more likely to leave a game OR stick with it?

Anyone who thinks that you can do a simple "10% of gamers" have Xfire installed and translate that to a specific game popularity needs to study statistics a bit more. 

 

  niceguy3978

Elite Member

Joined: 6/14/06
Posts: 1981

12/26/12 11:32:55 AM#45
Originally posted by sfc1971

I have never installed Xfire and never will and in general think those kind of tools are for tools. Yet I play MMO's. So how do you count me?

You can't use these kind of statistics because you have no way to correlate them to anything. If a game happens to be popular with the Xfire type person then how do you compare that with a game that doesn't attract that type of crowd?

For that matter, you can't even judge it in one type of game, what if people who use Xfire are more likely to leave a game OR stick with it?

Anyone who thinks that you can do a simple "10% of gamers" have Xfire installed and translate that to a specific game popularity needs to study statistics a bit more. 

 

This is why it is such a bad idea to try to compare games using x-fire or to extrapolate how many people are playing a game from using x-fire.  It is, however, usefull for trends within the game where the sel-selection of the sample has less importance than whether or not at least 400 people or so use xfire within said game.

  Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 6829

12/26/12 11:39:08 AM#46


Originally posted by madazz

I could explain on here

Oh please, entertain me with lesson in applied math...

  Terranah

Apprentice Member

Joined: 7/03/04
Posts: 3612

12/26/12 11:41:01 AM#47

I only briefly used Xfire many years ago.  I found it too intrusive and cumbersome at the time. It could be a weak indicator of population but I would use it only in conjunction with other indicators. 

 

In medicine, when we are ruling a myocardial infarction in or out, we test CK total, CKMB, CKMBI, Troponin, and 12 or 18 lead EKG.  No one test is definitive.  I'd say Xfire is like that, maybe one indicator taken in conjunction with others could be useful, but alone is misleading or just plain wrong.

  Sevenstar61

Hard Core Member

Joined: 7/22/12
Posts: 1508

"But it was so artistically done..." - Grand Admiral Thrawn's final words

12/26/12 11:49:04 AM#48

What kind of statistical sample Xfire is giving us - that is a question. Is it a true representation of the playerbase or artificial booster to some specific games.

Analyzing features available for Xfire users: easy game detection and launching, finding your friends and what they are playing at this momnet, intant messages, game chat, screenshots, video captures, broadcasting... etc we can assume with high probability, that xfire users are:

1. Players with big social network who are playing multiple games at the same time  - they instantly know which games their friends are playing at the moment and can join them easily via Xfire. Not necessary MMOs. Xfire is a great tool for this. These are true Xfire users.

2. Players who want to boost xfire numbers for their favorite game. Lets call it Xfire battlefront. And don't tell me that it's a BS /grin

3. Players who downloaded it out of curiosity and though they do not play many game they like the fact that they can launch game or games easily... or they just have it in start-up /grin.

 

#1 - this number is a variable which change the most... most likely these are the players who stay with game for first month ot two and then move on... these are content locusts

#2 - this number is proportionate to fanbase... the more fans the biggest number

#3 - pretty much unknown.

Conclusion? The higher Xfire numbers - the more hardcore fans the game has. Period.

 

Edit. There is 21 million Xfire users, so it's a big chunk of players.


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  Boreil

Hard Core Member

Joined: 1/13/06
Posts: 452

12/26/12 11:55:28 AM#49
Xfire is in no way a measurement of MMO players in a game, never has been never will be, have played mmorpg's for over 10 years and 80% of the people i have met have never used xfire, most never even heard of it .

  often

Novice Member

Joined: 4/26/12
Posts: 7

12/26/12 12:15:40 PM#50
Originally posted by madazz
Originally posted by Pivotelite
Originally posted by Jonnas13

8 people have walked past my window in the last hour. From that I can deduce that the town I live in has 55k population. The facts prove it!

Sadly this is more likely to be accurate than the usual x-fire numbers and MMO population bullshit.

Trying to take a tiny sample of a skewed pool and applying to a broad spectrum is inherantly flawed.

 Based on hours played from most populated to least it goes...

 

WoW, GW2, SW:TOR, Aion, EvE, TSW, Rift, TERA then like 50 dead MMOs after that.

 

That seems pretty accurate to me... it gives a general idea, a pretty good one for the most part IMO. It always has shown trands, when a game is gaining players or losing players. Every event GW2s numbers shoot up, F2P SWTORs shot up, B2P TSWs shot up. And they all remain in a realistic position based on their playersbase relative to the other MMOs.

Accurate if you are calculating xfire uses. Statistics don't work that way. I could explain on here, but I feel everyone reading this thread should probably read up on how you properly get stats. I feel those that trust xfire as a reliable source would change their minds without hesitation with a little bit of education.

There are a few assumptions that underly any stastical calculation.  

First is a random sample where members of the sample are independent.  Outside of X-Fire's other failings, this is where the biggest problem occurs.

The same is NOT random, it's peole who have elected to install a specific program on their computer, therefore any results used would be baised toward to types of people who install and use X-Fire.

So, if you want to use X-Fire numbers in any meaningful way, you must intrepret resutls within the frame of X-Fire users (e.g., populaiton is increaseing among WoW players who use X-Fire).  There is no way around that.

As madazz said, statistics don't wory that way.

  Nadia

Elite Member

Joined: 7/26/03
Posts: 11305

12/26/12 12:25:40 PM#51
Originally posted by Sevenstar61

There is 21 million Xfire users, so it's a big chunk of players.

Raptr, a site similar to Xfire, claims 15 million users

http://raptr.com/download

Join your friends and our community of 15 million gamers who love using our award-winning PC desktop app. Fully customize your experience to fit your gaming style. No spyware or adware; ultra light so that your games won’t get bogged down.

 

another version of "truth"

  lizardbones

Elite Member

Joined: 6/11/08
Posts: 10427

I've become dependent upon spell check. My apologies for stupid grammatical errors.

12/26/12 12:36:14 PM#52


Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by Sevenstar61 There is 21 million Xfire users, so it's a big chunk of players.
Raptr, a site similar to Xfire, claims 15 million users

http://raptr.com/download

Join your friends and our community of 15 million gamers who love using our award-winning PC desktop app. Fully customize your experience to fit your gaming style. No spyware or adware; ultra light so that your games won’t get bogged down.

 

another version of "truth"




XFire has a total of 21 million downloads. That's not active users and it's not concurrent users. How many active users do they have? Nobody knows because XFire will not tell them.

I would guess that Raptr is the same way. They have 15 million installs, not 15 million active users.

For every large, complex problem, there is a simple, clear solution that also happens to be absolutely wrong.

  Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 6829

12/26/12 12:39:40 PM#53


Originally posted by Jonnas13

The part where we disagree is I do not feel the x-fire sample is representative of the people who play MMOs across the board.

As long as you know the divergence, you can make a correction.

  KingJiggly

Novice Member

Joined: 8/03/11
Posts: 807

Definition for innovation is below. Your welcome.

12/26/12 12:40:03 PM#54

This thread is going to be closed. 

 

But, imo xfire only represents the hardcore population and therefore untrustworthy for casual games.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/innovation

  botrytis

Advanced Member

Joined: 1/04/05
Posts: 2445

12/26/12 12:42:51 PM#55
Originally posted by Gdemami

 


Originally posted by Jonnas13

The part where we disagree is I do not feel the x-fire sample is representative of the people who play MMOs across the board.

 

As long as you know the divergence, you can make a correction.

But, we don't so you really can't make the correction and that is the point.

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  Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 6829

12/26/12 12:46:23 PM#56


Originally posted by often

The same is NOT random, it's peole who have elected to install a specific program on their computer, therefore any results used would be baised toward to types of people who install and use X-Fire.

Yes, it is not random. So you are working with different probability here, still sufficient for these boards estimates, unless you can provide some data that xfire users are somewhat vastly different profile of average MMO gamer.

  Gdemami

Elite Member

Joined: 9/23/08
Posts: 6829

12/26/12 12:48:39 PM#57


Originally posted by botrytis

But, we don't so you really can't make the correction and that is the point.


Yes, you do. You have official and other data inputs you can include and make corrections.

Majority of mmodata.com is made that way and unofficial data correlate with official numbers pretty well.

  madazz

Apprentice Member

Joined: 10/07/03
Posts: 1300

12/26/12 12:50:36 PM#58
Originally posted by Gdemami

 


Originally posted by madazz

I could explain on here


 

Oh please, entertain me with lesson in applied math...

If you could of read past that line you would of figured it out. I implore you, please read up on stats. That is all I ask. I am wrong about a LOT of stuff ALL the time. I learn from it though. Its perfectly okay to be wrong about something as long as you can move forward from it and learn something.

All I am asking you to do is read up on statistics and how they are gathered and work. I don't see the harm in making that request. Its all well and good to have a small grasp on how stats work, but without actually having a full understanding of them you aren't able to properly argue anything about them. Seriously, I'm not trying to bash on you. Just recently I made a statement about GW2 that was false, I apologized and moved on from it, no biggie... you are wrong about stats, I am asking you to read up on it. Problem is, you are oversimplfying how it works in your head, and I honestly think that if you read up on how they work in detail then you'd have a better understanding. I am not on this forum to give you a class is how stats work (and yes, there are classes for this stuff). 

  Cecropia

Gumshoe

Joined: 3/06/09
Posts: 3256

Poacher killer.

12/26/12 12:55:42 PM#59
Originally posted by Gdemami

 


Originally posted by often

The same is NOT random, it's peole who have elected to install a specific program on their computer, therefore any results used would be baised toward to types of people who install and use X-Fire.

 

Yes, it is not random. So you are working with different probability here, still sufficient for these boards estimates, unless you can provide some data that xfire users are somewhat vastly different profile of average MMO gamer.

If you cannot understand how people who would put a program such as XFire on their PCs are not representative of the average gamer, then you are simply out of touch with the mainstream. Most people do not put shit like that on their computers.

Also, how is this thread still alive? Mods must be out Boxing Day shopping ;) 

"Chuck's a good fighter but he's a UFC fighter... this is Pride." - Quinton Rampage Jackson
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb

  often

Novice Member

Joined: 4/26/12
Posts: 7

12/26/12 12:57:18 PM#60
Originally posted by Gdemami

 


Originally posted by often

The same is NOT random, it's peole who have elected to install a specific program on their computer, therefore any results used would be baised toward to types of people who install and use X-Fire.

 

Yes, it is not random. So you are working with different probability here, still sufficient for these boards estimates, unless you can provide some data that xfire users are somewhat vastly different profile of average MMO gamer.

The problem with that assumption is that you cannot prove they are not significantly different from the average MMO gamer.  The assumption is flawed either way you lean (X-Fire is a good estimation tool, or a poor one).  All I was saying is that X-Fire is a good estimation tool for MMO players who have X-Fire installed, otherwise you cannot generalize the results of any analysis with any sort of statistical power.

For the layperson, it might give a decent anecdotal idea of what some mmo players are playing, but I still put no stock in any sort of results.

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